This is the true ALT coin indicator.Using these metrics you can easily see when the ALT coin season begins and when it will end, by watching the FEDS balance sheet.
Economy
Are You Seeing This?If being on the gold standard made the U.S. Debt-to-GDP ratio get better, then what will make the Debt-to-GDP even out now? Particularly since we're probably not going back to the gold standard. What asset can the U.S. peg the U.S. Dollar to make the Debt-to-GDP even out or decline?
Or, will the U.S. just letting the debt continue without being checked? The great part about the U.S. is their "beautiful deleveraging" and reflation. It's great to the have fighting in the corner of the U.S.
It gets bumpy, but just hold on tight. There is more to come. Can't wait to see how this plays out.
#RayDalio
#GoldStandard
#BeautifulDeleveraging
#BumpyRide
#WhatsNext
#ATJX $ATJX
Global M2 Set to ResurgeGlobal money printers are starting to rev up.
After a brief hiatus, it won't be long before U.S., Europe, and Japanese M2 charts new highs again. Are you ready for a new liquidity cycle?
The History of Global Net Liquidity RhymesThe History of Global Net Liquidity Rhymes
Descending wedge pattern leading up to 2020 vs the one forming now.
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024,
compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2.
It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West.
The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence.
In September alone, there were some positive signs:
industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%.
On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%.
During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5%
(September/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April.
Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%).
Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%).
Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%).
On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%).
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024)
source: European Central Bank
- The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June.
The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively.
This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well.
In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years.
While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025.
Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing.
The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7%
source: Office for National Statistics
-Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%.
The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels.
Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001.
Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023.
In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%).
Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
Sahm Rule Vs. FED's Own Recession Probability IndicatorThere is an interesting divergence between Claudia Sahm's real-time recession indicator and the FED's own recession probability indicator.
Historically, if we look at this chart, we get a rise in both together into a recession.
This time, the Sahm-Rule recession indicator has tripped the threshold at which recessions usually occur, but without a corresponding rise in the FED's recession indicator.
So, I believe one of two scenarios will play out here.
Either:
A - The FED's recession indicator will "correct" to meet the Sahm rule indicator's action and trip it's own recession threshold thus confirming the recession.
B - The Sahm rule is incorrect here and will correct back down - thus disconfirming the recession - to meet the FED's own indicator.
I believe by watching this spread and how it resolves, we may get an insight into where the economy is going.
Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 SupplyBitcoin is often compared to traditional fiat currencies in terms of its potential as a hedge against inflation. A key metric to understand this comparison is the M2 money supply—a measure of the money in circulation, including cash, savings deposits, and other liquid assets. The rising M2 supply is often associated with inflationary pressures, as central banks inject liquidity into the economy.
Analysis: As M2 money supply has surged in recent years due to unprecedented monetary stimulus, Bitcoin has often rallied, reflecting its narrative as "digital gold" or an inflation-resistant asset. However, some argue Bitcoin's volatility makes it more of a speculative asset than a reliable store of value
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
Inflation Data (September/2024)
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024,
below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%.
This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June,
highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to address growing deflation risks.
Non-food prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in August as the cost of transport shrank further (-4.1% vs -2.7%) due to lower crude oil prices.
Also, housing prices edged down (-0.1% vs flat reading) amid government efforts to further regulate the property market. Meanwhile, cost slowed for health (1.2% vs 1.3%) and education (0.6% vs 1.3%).
On the food side, prices rose for the second month, with the rate of increase the fastest in 20 months (3.3% vs 2.8%).
Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.1% yoy, the smallest rise since February 2021, after a 0.3% gain in August. Monthly, the CPI was unchanged, compared with consensus and August’s print of a 0.4% rise.
$USSIRY -U.S CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
US Inflation Rate Slows Less Than Expected
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in September,
the lowest since February 2021 but surpassing market expectations of 2.3%.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the same as in August.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.3%, while the monthly gauge remined at 0.3%.
Long Term Prediction on Inflation Rates - 2031history may not repeat itself, but it rhymes... or so they say. But in this case, so far we have an EXACT repeat, starting in 2015. The chart uses the exactly same angles and duration from the inflation we had in the 1970s. I put this together around 6 months ago and so far... it continues to track.
You be the judge of what's going to happen. Of course, time will tell and we'll see how it all plays out.
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024)
source: EUROSTAT
- Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed.
Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%.
Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%).
Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%.
Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%).
The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates.
Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ISM PMIISM PMI for contrasting with BTC price. We develop this comparison to have a prediction on btc price.
NFP & Port Strikes: Why Jobs Matter This Week Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to rise by 140,000 in September, matching August's pace and pushing the three-month average job gains to the weakest level since mid-2019. The NFP data is due this Friday.
At the same time, a major labor disruption is underway. Dockworkers at 14 key ports, handling roughly half of U.S. trade, have launched an indefinite strike. The walkout could disrupt trade and strain the economy ahead of the presidential election and the crucial holiday shopping season.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern that a prolonged strike could worsen supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbate inflation, and alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
Yield Curve with SPX performanceYield Curve with SPX performance
Unemployment rate goes along with T10Y-T02Y
Goldie Locks & The 3 Bears, BangBros edition Goldie Locks is all snuggled up in the bear's bed, eating all their porridge and dreaming of lotto AI calls. Blinded by greed and her own eye-lids; she can't see the compromising position she's put herself in. This ain't no fairy tale, tho. It won't be pleasant, or short. You will beg for Daddy, tho. #bearporn
Are we going to see 4.5-5%?Do you also think we will really visit 4.5-5% in the next few months? Also watch for the H&S pattern...
Unemployment Level is about to spike even moreMoving Average convergence Divergence has reach the 0 line. This indicate an enormous possibility to start trending up in the few months. Guys, this will be your chance to scoop assets at a discount. Please stop buying stocks right now
Sorry for being so bearish This is not going to end well unfortunately. Stay with cash and wait for the discounts. Be patient
UnemploymentThe Fed was surely spooked a while back as the rate of change remained high for up trending unemployment.
Guess what asset class initially loves up trending unemployment?
Gold & Silver miners.
#fed #fomc #ratecut #recession #gold #silver #miners
