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Could Netflix (NFLX) Be Gearing Up for a Major Correction?Netflix has had an impressive bull run since mid-2022, but based on historical structure and price behavior, a correction could be right around the corner. ๐Ÿ” Chart Breakdown (9W Time Frame): Current Price: ~$870 2025 Projected High: $1,064.50 No significant correction since 2022 Bearish Target Zones: ๐Ÿ“‰ Zone 1: ~$443 (-46% from current levels) ๐Ÿ“‰ Zone 2: ~$344 (-57% from current levels) Market Structure Notes: Bullish momentum has been non-stop for 2+ years The last time Netflix saw a proper reset was during the 2022 market correction If this candle breaks structure to the downside, the selloff may be fast and steep Support Zones are clearly outlined between the 2023 lows and historical demand blocks ๐Ÿ’ฌ My Prediction: I believe Netflix is overdue for a pullback, and based on the volume and vertical structure of this bull run, we could be setting up for a mean reversion play back to strong support areas. Iโ€™m not saying Netflix isnโ€™t a long-term powerhouse, but even the strongest runners need to rest. Price doesnโ€™t move in a straight line forever. ๐Ÿ“Œ Not Financial Advice โ€” just technical breakdown and a probability-based setup. ๐Ÿ”– Hashtags: #Netflix #NFLX #StockMarket #CorrectionIncoming #BearishSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #CandlestickChart #InvestSmart #TradingView #StockPrediction #Watchlist
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by MoNi_MoN
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 100% bounce๐Ÿ”ธHello traders, today let's review daily chart for TSLA. we are looking at a 67% correction, almost complete now, another 67% recent correction presented on the right. ๐Ÿ”ธMost of the bad news already price in and we are getting oversold, expecting a bottom in weeks now not months. ๐Ÿ”ธRecommended strategy bulls: BUY/HOLD once 67% correction completes at/near strong horizontal S/R 140/150 USD, TP bulls is 280/300 USD, which is 100% unleveraged gain. **Tesla (TSLA) Market Update โ€“ April 9, 2025** ๐Ÿ“‰ **Stock Decline:** TSLA closed at $221.86, down 4.9%, amid new tariffs and CEO Elon Musk's political involvement **Analyst Downgrades:* Wedbush's Dan Ives cut the price target by 43% to $315, citing a "brand crisis" Wells Fargo's Colin Langan set a target at $130, anticipating a potential 50% drop ๎ˆƒ๐Ÿ“Š **Delivery Shortfall:** Q1 deliveries fell 13% year-over-year to 336,000 vehicles, missing expectations by about 40,000 unis. ๎ˆƒ๐ŸŒ **Tariff Impact:** President Trump's new tariffs are expected to increase costs and disrupt Tesla's supply chain, especially concerning Chinese operatins. ๎ˆƒ๐Ÿ’ก **Investor Sentiment:** Analysts express concern over Musk's political ties affecting Tesla's brand and sales, particularly in China.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ProjectSyndicate
21
Fluidra Shields Itself from Trump's Tariff BlowsBy Ion Jauregui โ€“ Markets Analyst, ActivTrades Amid the renewed escalation of trade tensions, Fluidra faces the potential impact of new tariffs driven by the Trump administration. The tariff dispute not only complicates international operations but also directly affects the companyโ€™s cost structure. With 50% of its sales in North America coming from products manufactured in Mexico and an additional 15% originating from China, Fluidra is particularly exposed to any increase in tariff rates. The company's projections indicate that, without swift measures, these tariffs could negatively impact its results by up to 50 million euros. Profitability and Growth Objectives During its Capital Markets Day, Fluidra made clear its commitment to improving its profitability. The firm aims to raise its EBITDA margin to 25% in the medium term, up from the 22.7% achieved in 2024. This objective represents an expansion of over two percentage points, following the upward trend seen between 2019 and 2024 (from 19.7% to 22.7%). In addition, the company forecasts organic sales growth in the range of 6% to 8% per year, which marks a significant acceleration compared to the modest 2.5% recorded in 2024. Impact Mitigation Strategy To safeguard its operating margins from tariff pressure, Fluidra has implemented a structured plan based on three main pillars: Price Adjustment: The company has increased prices in the United States by 3.5%, a necessary measure to pass part of the rising costs onto its customers. Operational Cost Optimization: Fluidra is reviewing and streamlining its production processes across all geographies, especially in America, where strategies include sharing costs with suppliers and the potential relocation of production. Supply Chain Restructuring: The firm is evaluating new strategies in its international operations to minimize the tariffs' impact, thereby ensuring that pressure on the results remains under control. Geographic Performance and Revenue Growth Fluidraโ€™s performance varies across markets: North America: This region is solidifying its position as the groupโ€™s main growth engine, experiencing a 7.5% revenue increase, which underscores its strategic importance. Europe: While Southern Europe saw a revenue contraction of 3.7%, the rest of Europe grew modestly (+1.6%). These differences reflect variations in demand and in each marketโ€™s ability to adjust prices. International Markets: The rest of the world contributed a slight growth (+0.7%), adding to a global scenario in which Fluidra aims to consolidate its position. Based on these figures, the company expects to close 2025 with revenues between 2,140 and 2,250 million eurosโ€”surpassing the sectorโ€™s average growth, estimated between 4% and 6%. Additionally, it is anticipated that the remaining 2% of growth will come from inorganic operations and increased market share. Innovation and Strategic Expansion Fluidra is not solely focused on price adjustments and cost reductions; it has also bet on inorganic expansion to reinforce its position. Among its most noteworthy moves is the acquisition of a 27% stake in Aiper Inc, a company specializing in robotics for pools, for 100 million dollars. Such investments aim to broaden the companyโ€™s footprint in emerging markets, with a commitment to progressively increasing its equity stake as the financial targets outlined in the companyโ€™s plan are achieved. Technical Analysis On the monthly chart, the company has shown solid support around 12.83 euros per contract since its previous bullish surge that reached a high in September 2021. After those highs, Fluidra corrected its price in October 2022 down to the current support โ€œdrill zone,โ€ which has subsequently served as a new launchpad into the 2024 Christmas rally. Its Point of Control (POC) on the monthly chart is located at 14.78 euros. On the other hand, examining the 4-hour chart reveals that the POC is around 22.08 euros, well above the current support at 18.20 euros. With a current trading price around 19.60 euros, the RSI has moved out of oversold levels and is attempting to return to a more neutral zone, rising from 20% to the current 39.36%. The monthly moving average crossover indicates that the bullish development has not yet concluded despite the current bearish candle. However, on the 4-hour chart, the downward turn has not been corrected, resulting in a conflict of signals. Analyzing the pressure from the delta zones reveals a very strong barrier above 20 euros, which makes it likely that the price will move back to the upper area of the 4-hour bell curve, positioned around 22 euros as mentioned. Conclusion In an environment marked by global uncertainty and tariff pressure, Fluidra demonstrates resilience and adaptability. With clear growth objectives and an integrated strategy focused on margin improvement, the company is well-positioned to face current challenges and secure higher profitability. Through adjustments in pricing, operational optimization, and strategic expansion moves, Fluidra is preparing to maintain its strong performance and create sustainable value for shareholders, despite the impacts of the new U.S. trade policy. Despite the uncertain context, Fluidra remains steadfast in its commitment to generating sustainable and profitable value, with the goal of maintaining a ROCE of 17% while continuing to consolidate its global market position through a strategy centered on efficiency, innovation, and diversification. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
BME:FDRLong
by ActivTrades
Why Support and Resistance are Made to Be Broken ?Hello fellow traders! Hope you're navigating the markets smoothly. As we go through the daily dance of price action, one thing becomes clear support and resistance are just moments, not walls. They're temporary. Momentum and trend strength? Now thatโ€™s where the real story lies. This publication dives into how these so-called key levels break and more importantly, how to position yourself smartly when they do. Stay flexible, trade with confidence, and let the market lead. Letโ€™s get into it. Why Support and Resistance Levels Break Support and resistance are some of the most talked-about tools in technical analysis. But here's the truth theyโ€™re not meant to last forever. No matter how strong a level may appear on your chart, it eventually gets tested, challenged, and often broken. Why? Because the market is dynamic. The real edge for a trader lies not in hoping a level holds, but in reading when itโ€™s about to fail and being ready for it. No Resistance in a Bull, No Support in a Bear Ever seen a strong bull market pause just because of a resistance line? It doesnโ€™t. Price keeps pushing higher as buyers keep stepping in. Same goes for a strong bear market support levels collapse as fear takes over and selling snowballs. Instead of clinging to lines on a chart, think bigger: Where is the momentum? Whatโ€™s the trend saying? Thatโ€™s where your trading decisions should come from. Support and Resistance: Not Fixed, Always Shifting Yes, these levels matter but only as zones, not exact prices. Theyโ€™re areas where price has reacted in the past, where traders might expect something to happen again. But theyโ€™re not magic numbers. When traders treat these levels as absolute, they fall into traps false confidence, poor entries, tighter than-needed stop losses. Always remember: market sentiment, liquidity, and institutional activity are constantly changing. So should your interpretation of the chart. The Temporary Nature of These Levels Markets move on supply and demand. A level that acted as resistance last week could easily become support next week. Or break completely. Take the classic example support turning into resistance. When support breaks, former buyers might now be sellers, trying to get out on a bounce. That flip happens because behavior and sentiment have shifted. And as traders, thatโ€™s the real pattern we need to track not just price levels, but the psychology behind them. โ€œStrongโ€ Support? Itโ€™s Mostly an Illusion We all love the idea of a strong level something we can lean on. But large players? They donโ€™t think like that. Institutions donโ€™t place massive orders at a single price point. They spread across a zone building positions slowly without moving the market too much. What looks like a strong level to us might just be an accumulation or distribution range for them. Always think beyond whatโ€™s visible on the surface. How to Spot Breakouts Before They Hit Hereโ€™s what separates seasoned traders from the rest the ability to spot potential breakouts before they explode. ๐Ÿ”น Volume Confirmation: If a resistance level is tested repeatedly on rising volume, thatโ€™s a big clue buyers are serious. ๐Ÿ”น Structure Shifts: Higher highs in an uptrend or lower lows in a downtrend signal that the old levels are being challenged. ๐Ÿ”น Liquidity Traps: Watch out for fakeouts. These are designed to trap impatient traders just before the real move. ๐Ÿ”น News & Events: Never ignore macro triggers. Earnings, economic data, or geopolitical surprises can fuel breakouts that crush technical levels. ๐Ÿ”น Break & Retest: A solid strategy โ€” wait for the level to break, then get in on the retest. ๐Ÿ”น Momentum Tools: Indicators like RSI, MACD, or even EMAs can offer extra confidence that a move has legs. 3 Practical Trading Setups 1. Breakout Trading Mark key levels on daily or weekly charts. Watch for volume and momentum confirmation. Enter after a clear breakout or retest. Stop-loss: Just below resistance (for longs) or above support (for shorts). 2. Range Trading If price is stuck between support and resistance, trade the range. Look for price rejection (wicks, pin bars, etc.). Use RSI or Stochastics to time entries. 3. Trend Following Identify the dominant trend using moving averages or price structure. Avoid going against the trend unless reversal signs are very clear. Let profits run use trailing stops instead of fixed targets. Mind Over Market: Psychology of S&R One of the biggest traps in trading? Overtrusting support and resistance. We get emotionally attached. We want the support to hold or the resistance to reject. And that bias clouds our judgment. How many times have you seen price break a level โ€” and you freeze because it โ€œwasnโ€™t supposed toโ€? To break free of that: โœ… Trade with a plan. โœ… Set your risk before the trade, not after. โœ… Donโ€™t treat any level as sacred. โœ… Stay open to what the market is telling you not what you want it to say. Final Thoughts Support and resistance are great tools but theyโ€™re just one part of the puzzle. The real power lies in reading price action, watching volume, and understanding market sentiment. Donโ€™t ask, โ€œWill this level hold?โ€ Ask instead, โ€œWhat happens if it breaks?โ€ That shift in thinking? It can make all the difference. Stay sharp, stay adaptive, and keep evolving with the market. Wishing you green trades and growing accounts! Best Regards- Amit Rajan.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by AMIT-RAJAN
1
Research: Retracement VS Exponential GridIn this research idea I'll test which of those two tools would be a more effective way for projecting future key levels to which price may react best. While both of them are chart-based and run on fibonacci with progression rate 0.25 showing exponential spacing between levels, there are differences: TradingView's Fibonacci Retracement (2 chart points) Levels are derived from distance 0-1 which measures the -86% decline. Exponential Grid (1 chart point) Levels are derived just from the historic lowest price. Historically, in both cases price movements have respected these exponential levels. This experiment is essential for various reasons: Understanding better parabolic growth patterns. Improving the indicator for a better performance and user experience. ENDGOAL Accurately map support, resistance, and market reactions ensuring better predictive accuracy for future price action.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by fract
Nio Limited Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Nio Limited Stock Quote - Double Formation * (EMA Settings)) | Completed Survey * (Reversal Argument)) At 8.00 USD | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * ABC Wave Feature | Short Set Up | Subdivision 2 * (TP1) | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition - (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Logarithmic Settings - Position On A 1.5RR * Stop Loss At 3.50 USD * Entry At 3.00 USD * Take Profit At 2.50 USD * (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation * Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area)) Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Sell
PEPPERSTONE:NIOShort
by TradePolitics
Temu's Price Magic: Shattered by Tariffs?PDD Holdings, the parent entity behind the popular e-commerce platform Temu, confronts a severe operational challenge following the recent imposition of stringent US tariffs targeting Chinese goods. These trade measures, particularly the dismantling of the "de minimis" rule for Chinese shipments, directly threaten the ultra-low-cost business model that fueled Temu's rapid expansion in the US market. The elimination of the previous $800 duty-free threshold for individual packages strikes at the core of Temu's logistical and pricing strategy. The impact stems from newly enacted, exceptionally high tariffs on these formerly exempt low-value parcels. Reports indicate rates escalating to 90% of the item's value or a significant flat fee, effectively nullifying the cost advantages Temu leveraged by shipping directly from manufacturers in China. This fundamental shift disrupts the financial viability of Temu's model, which relied heavily on tariff-free access to deliver goods at minimal prices to American consumers. Consequently, significant price increases for products sold on Temu appear almost inevitable as PDD Holdings grapples with these substantial new costs. While the company's official response is pending, economic pressures suggest consumers will likely absorb these charges, potentially eroding Temu's primary competitive advantage and slowing its growth momentum. PDD Holdings now faces the critical task of navigating this disrupted trade landscape and adapting its strategy to maintain its market position amidst heightened protectionism and geopolitical tension.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by UDIS_View
CVS Health Corporation โ€“ Double Top Breakdown Setup๐Ÿ“‰ Short Setup ๐Ÿ” Description: CVS Health (NYSE: CVS) is forming a double top pattern, indicating potential bearish momentum. A break below the confirmation level would signal further downside. ๐Ÿ“Š Trade Details: Entry: Below confirmation level ๐Ÿ”ด Stop Loss: 71.06 ๐ŸŸข Target: 56.87 ๐Ÿ“Œ Confirmation : A breakdown from the double top with increased volume would strengthen the bearish case. A failed breakdown could invalidate the setup. Trade cautiously! ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ“‰
NYSE:CVSShort
by pliesfargo
HYPR โ€“ 30-Min Short Trade Setup !๐Ÿ“‰ ๐Ÿ”ป ๐Ÿ”น Asset: Hyperfine, Inc. (HYPR โ€“ NASDAQ) ๐Ÿ”น Timeframe: 30-Min Chart ๐Ÿ”น Setup Type: Bear Flag Breakdown + Retest Rejection ๐Ÿ“Š Trade Plan (Short Position) โœ… Entry Zone: Below $0.60 (Confirmed breakdown of wedge support) โœ… Stop-Loss (SL): Above $0.6541 (horizontal resistance + wedge trendline) ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit Targets: ๐Ÿ“Œ TP1: $0.5356 (minor support zone) ๐Ÿ“Œ TP2: $0.5000 (psychological round number) ๐Ÿ“Œ TP3: $0.4677 (previous structure) ๐Ÿ“Œ TP4: $0.4170 (major support level, yellow line) ๐Ÿ“ Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation ๐Ÿ“‰ Risk (SL Distance): $0.6541 - $0.60 = $0.0541 risk per share ๐Ÿ“ˆ Reward to TP2: $0.60 - $0.50 = $0.10 โ†’ R/R = 1:1.85 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Reward to TP4: $0.60 - $0.4170 = $0.183 โ†’ R/R = 1:3.38 ๐Ÿ” Technical Analysis & Strategy ๐Ÿ“Œ Falling Wedge Pattern: Broken to downside ๐Ÿ“Œ Retest Rejection: Price retested wedge but failed to break back above ๐Ÿ“Œ Bearish Momentum: No volume surge on bounce; sellers in control ๐Ÿ“Œ Clean Downtrend: Lower highs, lower lows confirm continuation ๐Ÿ“‰ Trade Execution & Risk Management ๐Ÿ“Š Entry Confirmation: Weak price action & rejection below $0.60 ๐Ÿ“‰ Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to breakeven after TP1 ๐Ÿ’ฐ Partial Profit Booking: โœ” 50% profits at TP2 ($0.50) โœ” Let rest ride toward TP4 โœ” Adjust SL to entry after TP1 โš ๏ธ Setup Invalidation โŒ Price closes above $0.6541 โŒ Strong bullish candle with high volume โŒ Reclaims broken wedge support ๐Ÿšจ Final Thoughts โœ” Clear bearish pattern with strong R/R setup โœ” Good opportunity for short-biased momentum traders โœ” Stick to the plan. Let the chart guide the trade. ๐Ÿ”— #HYPR #BearishSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #ProfittoPath #ChartBreakdown #StockTrading #ShortTrade #RisktoReward #WedgeBreakdown
NASDAQ:HYPRShort
by ProfittoPath
AMKR โ€“ 30-Min Short Trade Setup!๐Ÿ“‰ ๐Ÿ”ป ๐Ÿ”น Asset: Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR โ€“ NASDAQ) ๐Ÿ”น Timeframe: 30-Min Chart ๐Ÿ”น Setup Type: Rising Wedge Breakdown + Retest Rejection ๐Ÿ“Š Trade Plan (Short Position) โœ… Entry Zone: Below $14.90 (Confirmed Breakdown) โœ… Stop-Loss (SL): Above $15.74 (White resistance zone) ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit Targets: ๐Ÿ“Œ TP1: $14.00 (psychological level + previous support) ๐Ÿ“Œ TP2: $13.69 (breakdown structure) ๐Ÿ“Œ TP3: $12.48 (major support level) ๐Ÿ“ Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation ๐Ÿ“‰ Risk (SL Distance): $15.74 - $14.90 = $0.84 risk per share ๐Ÿ“ˆ Reward to TP2: $14.90 - $13.69 = $1.21 โ†’ R/R = 1:1.44 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Reward to TP3: $14.90 - $12.48 = $2.42 โ†’ R/R = 1:2.88 ๐Ÿ” Technical Analysis & Strategy ๐Ÿ“Œ Rising Wedge Breakdown: Bearish structure broken with weak bounce back ๐Ÿ“Œ Trendline Retest Rejected: Price failed to reclaim wedge support ๐Ÿ“Œ Bearish Volume Confirmation: No strong buying after breakdown ๐Ÿ“Œ Downside Open: Clear path toward lower support levels ๐Ÿ“‰ Trade Execution & Risk Management ๐Ÿ“Š Entry Confirmation: Weak price action below $14.90 ๐Ÿ“‰ Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hits ๐Ÿ’ฐ Partial Profit Booking: โœ” Book 50% profits at $13.69 โœ” Let rest ride to $12.48 โœ” Adjust SL to entry after TP1 โš ๏ธ Setup Invalidation โŒ Price reclaims and closes above $15.74 โŒ Strong bullish reversal candle with high volume โŒ Sustained consolidation above yellow zone ๐Ÿšจ Final Thoughts โœ” Clean bearish wedge pattern with trendline break โœ” Ideal for momentum traders seeking continuation plays โœ” Excellent R/R for disciplined risk managers ๐Ÿ’ก Stick to the setup, donโ€™t chase, manage your trade like a pro. ๐Ÿ”— #AMKR #NASDAQ #BearishSetup #ProfittoPath #StockTrading #ShortSetup #RisingWedge #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingPlan #RiskReward
NASDAQ:AMKRShort
by ProfittoPath
CRSP โ€“ 30-Min Short Trade Setup !๐Ÿ“‰ ๐Ÿ”ป ๐Ÿ”น Asset: CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP โ€“ NASDAQ) ๐Ÿ”น Timeframe: 30-Min Chart ๐Ÿ”น Setup Type: Bearish Pennant Breakdown + Retest Rejection ๐Ÿ“Š Trade Plan (Short Position) โœ… Entry Zone: Below $31.30 (Confirmed Breakdown) โœ… Stop-Loss (SL): Above $33.58 (White Resistance Level) ๐ŸŽฏ Take Profit Targets: ๐Ÿ“Œ TP1: $28.56 (Mid-support zone) ๐Ÿ“Œ TP2: $25.61 (Key demand area) ๐Ÿ“ Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation ๐Ÿ“‰ Risk (SL Distance): $33.58 - $31.30 = $2.28 risk per share ๐Ÿ“ˆ Reward to TP1: $31.30 - $28.56 = $2.74 โ†’ R/R = 1:1.20 ๐Ÿ“ˆ Reward to TP2: $31.30 - $25.61 = $5.69 โ†’ R/R = 1:2.49 ๐Ÿ” Technical Analysis & Strategy ๐Ÿ“Œ Bearish Pennant Breakdown: Price broke the pattern and is now rejecting the yellow zone on a retest. ๐Ÿ“Œ Lower Highs + Breakdown Structure: Indicates weakness, confirming bearish bias. ๐Ÿ“Œ Support Levels Below: Room to fall towards multiple levels of structure. ๐Ÿ“Œ Volume Check: Look for continued weak volume on bounce to confirm lack of demand. ๐Ÿ“‰ Trade Execution & Risk Management ๐Ÿ“Š Entry Trigger: Break and hold below $31.30 with weak bullish reaction. ๐Ÿ“‰ Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to breakeven once TP1 is hit. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Partial Profit Booking: โœ” Close 50% position at $28.56 โœ” Let remaining ride toward $25.61 โœ” Adjust SL to breakeven after TP1 โš ๏ธ Setup Invalidation โŒ Strong bullish reversal candle with volume above $33.58 โŒ Consolidation above yellow zone after false breakdown โŒ Positive news or catalyst reversing trend ๐Ÿšจ Final Thoughts โœ” Clean breakdown pattern with confluence resistance at $33.58 โœ” Bearish trend intact with lower highs and breakdowns โœ” High probability setup with strong R/R potential ๐Ÿ’ก Stick to the plan, manage risk, and let the chart do the talking. ๐Ÿ”— #CRSP #OptionsTrading #NASDAQStocks #TradingSetup #BearishTrade #ProfittoPath #SwingTradeSetup #RiskReward #ChartAnalysis #TradingView
NASDAQ:CRSPShort
by ProfittoPath
4/8/25 - $aapl - why it's the main stock to watch4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AAPL why it's the main stock to watch - up until recently the TVC:TNX (10Y) was headed lower. this changed in the last few sessions. let's leave the various "explanations" beyond this (perhaps the comments) and simply focus on price. - the reason NASDAQ:AAPL is of particular importance is given it's supreme weighting in the SP:SPX (up until recently the largest cap, now NASDAQ:MSFT as of today), but more importantly it's bond-like cash flow stream and high ROE's given strong brand. this affords investors (even those who eschew tech generally, like uncle warren) the ability to "look through" various disruptive and often more terminal-weighted names, even if they're megacaps as well, like $nvda. the current fcf yield on NASDAQ:AAPL is almost identical to the 10Y. - when you look at the above chart which plots NASDAQ:AAPL vs. the NASDAQ:TLT (price of apple divided by the 10Y), you'll notice two obvious things (and i've used heikin ashi candles to further underscore the points). 1/ aapl has consistently outperformed the long bond in the last decade+ 2/ period of multi-month drawdown vs. the 10Y have averaged about 80 days and ~30% lower, nearly identical to where we are today - when we consider the "reinvestment risk" of something like the 10Y for something like aapl, and considering the historical parallels, one would ask the question "is this over". and that's why this is so interesting/ important to watch $aapl. - beyond it's growing digital services contribution to the business, the core product (which delivers these services) is still mainly based in the "china complex", whether that's assembly, or within a headline's scare away in Taiwan (w/ their chips). so it's *very* exposed to what's happening here and a liquid canary for sentiment as to what's happening. - and beyond a resolution to the tariff debacle (if i may be so polite to call it that and stick to the points I'm trying to make in this post), the 10Y is behaving in a way where confidence might be shifting more toward a pseudo-sovereign LIKE APPLE given it's bond-like characteristics (points above) versus this gov't issued IOU. In other words, would you trust NASDAQ:AAPL stock (or even their bonds for that matter) to appreciate (or the yield to decline) versus the US 10Y. And there is the funny conundrum... and the paradigm shift happening in real time. Said another way: 1/ if the 10Y starts to behave, it's likely because there's some market belief of tariff resolution and a path forward (let's call it "look thru" or "reduced uncertainty") and in this scenario NASDAQ:AAPL like outperforms any benefit to lower yields given the recent pullback and given the chart/ comments above. 2/ and if the opposite is true, and the market continues to call BS on this whole ordeal, the 10Y is likely to dramatically underperform NASDAQ:AAPL 's stock price and/or the bottom for NASDAQ:AAPL one could argue is much more limited (perhaps 10-15%, at most 20%) vs. the 10Y (TLT), and from there the risk-reward (the second-order implication of this) is still an NASDAQ:AAPL share price that, again, dramatically outperforms the 10Y. While is all to say: I am closely watching NASDAQ:AAPL as if it were the most important economic variable in this whole equation and believe it's much closer to not only a trade-able bottom but potentially a multi-year floor price than the market's current sentiment would lead you to believe. And without getting too long winded (which this already is), the similar logic applies albeit to a slightly lesser degree for NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT and a few other mega caps ( NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:GOOGL ) each with their own quirks/ "features" or "drawbacks" in the current climate/ topic. So while I'm still packing 25% cash on the books, eventually this old man is going to call BS. And the big liquid stuff will be a good place to re-accumulate before we can distribute into the slightly more nuanced names (of which I own a few - if u follow u know). Let's see. Hope it helps your mosaic. Lmk (and especially) if you disagree. V
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by VROCKSTAR
AMBA โ€“ 30-Min Bearish Trade Setup!๐Ÿ“‰ ๐Ÿ”น Ticker: AMBA (NASDAQ) ๐Ÿ”น Setup: Falling Wedge Breakdown + Retest Rejection ๐Ÿ”ธ Trigger Zone: ~$40.30 (yellow zone + wedge base retest) ๐Ÿ“Š Trade Plan (Short Bias) โœ… Entry Range: $40.20โ€“$40.40 โœ… Stop Loss (SL): Above $45.14 (white structure resistance) โœ… Profit Targets: โ€ข TP1: $34.75 (support zone) โ€ข TP2: $30.76 (trend support) โ€ข TP3: $27.50 (key demand area) ๐Ÿ“ Risk-Reward Notes: โ€ข Price broke falling wedge with weak retest โ€ข Rejection confirmed at wedge base and horizontal zone โ€ข Clean downside structure with strong momentum โ€ข Attractive risk-reward ratio toward multi-month supports ๐Ÿ” Technical Highlights: โ€ข Series of lower highs and sharp breakdown โ€ข Volume faded during bounce โ†’ weakness โ€ข Prior support now acting as resistance โ€ข Momentum favors continuation if $40 fails to hold โš™๏ธ Trade Management: โ€ข Lock in profits at TP1 โ€ข Trail stop below lower highs โ€ข Watch for acceleration below $34.75 for quick move โš ๏ธ Setup Invalidation: โŒ Breakout and hold above $45.14 โŒ Bullish engulfing candle with rising volume โŒ Price consolidates above yellow zone with strength
NASDAQ:AMBAShort
by ProfittoPath