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KIO.JSE Kumba Iron Ore. High Risk / High Reward.Kumba Iron Ore is currently Trading above Recent Lows. Single Commodity Tickers are always inherently a High Risk / High Reward Scenario. They are the current Market Price Takers. Should the China Stimulus result in Positive result's , not just hype, then I expect the Demand for Steel and Iron Ore to increase and hence this Tickers Stock Value. I've Charted the Recent Lows and Highs for your Perusal. As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions. Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away. Regards Graham.
JSE:KIOLong
by hitchcoxg
SQ LEAP PotentialNYSE:SQ With the FED's announcement of possibly only TWO rate cuts in 2025, my eye is on companies like NYSE:SQ , NASDAQ:AFRM , and $PYPL. NYSE:SQ had the most beautiful set-up, to me, so I began here! The "perfect" set-up to me would be if the potential H&S pattern played out and we saw SQ push back towards the 92.65 level, reject back down towards 80.50-81 and hold the .382 Fib level AND the weekly support trend line. However, if bullish momentum is strong, a weekly break above 92.65, with correlating volume, and I will look to enter and target 99, 107, 117.
NYSE:SQLong
by WSBB
Detailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) 2yrDetailed Breakdown and Technical Analysis of NVIDIA's (NVDA) Two-Year Outlook and Options Strategy I. Introduction: Welcome to NVIDIA's Final Destination NVIDIA’s journey through the stock market feels eerily similar to a thriller like Final Destination. The twists and turns keep you on edge, the stakes couldn’t be higher, and just when you think you’ve figured it all out, the plot thickens. The question is: are we hurtling toward a safe landing or another sharp drop? With a head-and-shoulders pattern looming and Fibonacci levels adding their own cryptic clues, it’s time to map out the next two years. This isn’t just a ride—it’s a calculated journey through chaos and opportunity. ________________________________________ II. Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Position and Growth Catalysts NVIDIA (NVDA) has solidified its position as a leader in GPU and AI computing, supported by its dominant share in the gaming, data center, and automotive sectors. Its continued focus on AI hardware and software frameworks, like CUDA, provides a competitive moat. With AI-driven workloads expected to grow exponentially, NVIDIA remains a key beneficiary of this secular trend. However, NVDA faces potential headwinds from: • Geopolitical risks: Restrictions on chip exports to China could affect revenues. • Macroeconomic factors: High-interest rates and economic slowdowns may pressure growth-oriented tech stocks. • Valuation concerns: Elevated price-to-earnings ratios leave the stock vulnerable to corrections during downturns. 2. Historical Performance NVDA has demonstrated robust performance in the last decade, experiencing exponential growth in revenue and market capitalization. While this growth has been exceptional, recent price action suggests overextension, leading to the potential formation of a multi-year correction and consolidation before resuming upward momentum. ________________________________________ III. Technical Analysis 1. Current Structure • Head and Shoulders Pattern: A classic bearish reversal pattern is forming, with the left shoulder and head completed. The right shoulder is expected to form near the $134.70 resistance zone. • Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.618 retracement at ~$118 and 0.786 at ~$102 provide key support levels for potential pullbacks. • Momentum Indicators: - MACD: Bearish divergence indicates waning bullish momentum. - Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions suggest a correction is imminent. 2. Key Levels and Projections • Resistance Levels: $134.70, $149.37. • Support Levels: $118.32 (0.618 Fib), $102.86 (0.786 Fib), $95.65 (potential long-term bottom). • Recovery Path: Post-correction, NVDA could retest $149+ by late 2025, driven by cyclical recovery and improved fundamentals. ________________________________________ IV. Options Strategy: Leveraging Key Zones and Timelines 1. Core Thesis The projected pullback offers a strategic opportunity to capitalize on NVDA’s volatility using options. By employing 45-day (DTE) short put spreads at key support levels, we can: • Generate consistent income from elevated implied volatility (IV). • Define risk with limited downside exposure. Additionally, using long-term hedges (LEAPS) can offset potential losses, ensuring portfolio resilience during downturns. 2. Strategy Design (Phase 1) a. 45D Short Put Spreads • Objective: Capture premium during consolidation near support zones. • Execution: - Sell a short put at a support level (e.g., $118). - Buy a protective put 5-10 points lower (e.g., $113) to limit risk. • Example: - Sell $118 put, buy $113 put for a net credit of $1.50. - Max profit: $150 per contract. - Max loss: $350 per contract. - Breakeven: $116.50. • Timeline: Enter spreads every 45D, adjusting strikes based on price action and IV. b. Long-Term Hedge Using LEAPS • Objective: Hedge downside risk during significant corrections. • Execution: - Buy a deep ITM long put with 12-18 months DTE at $149 (current resistance). - Use proceeds from short put spreads to offset the cost of the hedge. • Rationale: Protects against deep corrections while maintaining exposure to long-term recovery. 3. Combining Strategies • During consolidations, sell short put spreads at $118 and $102. • Maintain a LEAPS hedge at $149 to offset potential losses if the pattern fails and the price breaks lower. • Adjust strikes dynamically based on the formation of the right shoulder and subsequent price action. ________________________________________ V. Phases of Execution Phase 2: Bearish Continuation to End of February 1. LEAP Exit: - Exit the LEAP put at the end of February if NVDA drops below $102. - Capture maximum intrinsic value before significant time decay impacts the LEAP. 2. Second 45DTE Put Spread Exit: - Exit the 45DTE short put spread around 21DTE (mid-February). - This is consistent with best practices to avoid gamma risk and maximize theta decay gains. Phase 3: Test at $95.65 1. Observe the Price Action: - If NVDA tests $95.65: - Confirm support and momentum before acting. - Look for signs of stabilization or a breakdown below $95. 2. Sell a Cash-Secured Put Below $95: - Choose a strike below $95 (e.g., $90 or $85) to give some breathing room. - Plan an exit near $135 test if NVDA rebounds, allowing you to capture premium. Phase 4: Transition Back to Short Put Spreads 1. After $135 Test: - If NVDA reaches $135, transition back to 45D short put spreads. - Focus on strikes below the established support levels at $102 or $118 to maintain a high probability of success. 2. Reestablish LEAP Put: - Initiate a new LEAP put with a strike above the $60 target (e.g., $75–$85). - Aim for September as the reversal point for the long-term bearish trend. Phase 5: Targeting September Reversal 1. Monitor for $60 Reversal: - Expect NVDA to reach $60 by September based on your thesis and technical analysis. - Exit the LEAP put as NVDA approaches $60 or shows reversal signs. 2. Reassess Market Conditions: - At this stage, reevaluate NVDA’s fundamentals, market conditions, and technical indicators. - Consider transitioning to bullish strategies if the broader market outlook aligns. ________________________________________ VI. Risk Management 1. Defined Risk: Short put spreads limit downside exposure to predefined levels, making the strategy suitable for high-volatility environments. 2. Capital Allocation: - Allocate no more than 5% of the portfolio to short put spreads per expiration cycle. - Use 2-3% for the LEAPS hedge. 3. Adjustment Plan: - Roll short puts if NVDA approaches the strike, maintaining a minimum credit. - Exit LEAPS hedge if NVDA stabilizes above $149. 4. Macro Monitoring: Regularly assess market conditions and adjust timelines and strikes accordingly. ________________________________________ VII. Conclusion: The Final Destination for NVDA NVIDIA’s trajectory over the next two years mirrors a thriller like Final Destination. While we can map out the twists and turns with technical analysis and strategic foresight, the market ultimately has its own plans. Our tools—like Fibonacci retracements, options strategies, and risk management frameworks—act as a way to anticipate the curves ahead, but they don’t guarantee a safe landing. The real challenge lies in adapting to the unknowns, balancing preparation with flexibility. Whether NVDA’s final destination is a triumphant recovery or a deeper pullback, this approach equips us to navigate the ride with confidence, knowing we’ve done everything to prepare for whatever fate may unfold. ________________________________________ Footnote This analysis represents a trading thesis based on technical and fundamental insights. It is not intended to be acted upon blindly or as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and the success or failure of the outlined strategies cannot be guaranteed. The author assumes no responsibility for any actions taken based on this thesis. Always consult a financial professional before implementing any investment strategy.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by bcavin
5
SYM - PSX - Technical AnalysisSYM is in bull run. At present KVO is suggesting a strong bull run; however, a bearish divergence has formed on RSI, which may cause the prices to retrace a bit which is good as then a Higher Low of the Bull cycle will be defined and then price will again go up. Therefore, buy on dip is quite possible but in case price continues to go up then Buy-3 should be executed, otherwise Buy-1 and Buy-2 would suffice. Trade Value: Buy-1: 17.17 (at fib 0.38 retracement) Buy-2: 16.33 (at fib 0.50 retracement) Buy-3: 20.11 (if Buy 1 and Buy 2 are not triggered) TP-1: 21.67 TP-2: 23.63 SL: 12.30
PSX:SYMLong
by Golden_Spur
BNZI:Could 2024's Low Be Behind Us? 2025 Signals a Potential UpAs we close out 2024, Banzai International, Inc. ( NASDAQ:BNZI ) shows signs that the worst may be over. With improved stock performance, strategic acquisitions, and significant financial restructuring, the company appears poised for a potential turnaround in 2025. However, critical confirmation signals are still required before declaring a bullish reversal. Weekly Timeframe: Trend: BNZI is transitioning from a "Red Setup 8" to a "Green Setup 1" on the weekly chart, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. Key Levels: Resistance: $1.80–$1.95. Support: $1.35. While the trend hints at a shift in momentum, traders should remain cautious, as longer-term signals still suggest the need for confirmation. Recent Company Developments Vidello Acquisition: This acquisition is expected to add $6.5 million in revenue and $2.3 million in EBITDA for the trailing twelve months through September 30, 2024. OpenReel Acquisition: Enhances BNZI's AI-powered marketing platform, particularly in video marketing, positioning the company to capitalize on rising market demand. Debt Restructuring: Reduced liabilities by $5.6 million and restructured $19.2 million in debt. While this strengthens the financial position, it also underscores past financial challenges that must be carefully managed. Reverse Stock Split: 1-for-50 split ensures compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements but raises concerns about organic growth. Key Observations Price rebound: BNZI closed at $1.71 on December 20, 2024, marking a solid 5.56% increase from the previous day. The stock has bounced 32.05% above its 52-week low, hinting at a potential bottom. Bullish momentum: The stock trades 11.89% above its 20-day SMA, signaling short-term bullish sentiment. However, it remains below longer-term moving averages, suggesting that the reversal is not fully confirmed. Acquisitions driving growth: The Vidello and OpenReel acquisitions are set to boost financial performance, adding $6.5 million in revenue and $2.3 million in EBITDA. These moves align with BNZI's strategy to focus on AI-driven marketing solutions. 2025: A Fresh Start? Monthly Chart Update Trend: Bearish continuation with Red Setup progression (2 to 4). However, the weekly chart's signals suggest a potential reversal could emerge. Action: Wait for two consecutive green candles on the monthly chart to confirm a bullish outlook for 2025. Entry Strategies Bullish Scenario: Enter long after confirming two monthly green candles, signaling a reversal. The key breakout level is $1.85. If breached, momentum could carry the price to $2.00 and beyond. Risk Considerations While BNZI's prospects look promising, risks remain: Post-Reverse-Split Volatility: The reverse split may increase price swings, impacting investor confidence. Acquisition Integration Risks: Successfully integrating Vidello and OpenReel is critical to realizing expected revenue and EBITDA gains. Broader Market Conditions: Macroeconomic trends and sector-specific challenges could impact BNZI's growth trajectory. Conclusion 2024 was a year of volatility and restructuring for BNZI. As we head into 2025, the company appears to be on firmer ground, with improved fundamentals and strategic initiatives. However, technical confirmation of a trend reversal is essential before declaring a bullish outlook. Key Takeaways for Traders: Watch for two consecutive green monthly candles to confirm the bearish trend reversal. A breakout above $1.85 could signal the start of a strong uptrend, potentially pushing the price to $2.00 and beyond. Stay cautious of a breakdown below $1.45, which could reignite bearish momentum. By balancing these factors, traders can position themselves effectively to capitalize on BNZI's potential opportunities in 2025. Check more in-depth analysis: TradingMRI Want More Analysis? 📢 Check out our Reddit post on r/TradingMRI for an in-depth breakdown of BNZI’s setup, including technical insights, key levels, and trade recommendations. 👉 Visit Reddit - r/TradingMRI Let’s discuss whether NASDAQ:BNZI is setting up for a breakout or another leg down. 🚀💡
NASDAQ:BNZILong
by hydtie
52 Week High Breakout - Positional Trade - Long TermDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser. This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser. 52 Week Breakout. Stock has Crossed 52 week High. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Positional Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart. Stop loss Trail by 30 SMA. Exit if Price Close below 30 SMA on Weekly Chart. Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market. Trade What you see not what you Think.
NSE:PKTEA
by AnsariTV
52 Week High Breakout - Positional Trade - Long TermDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser. This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser. 52 Week Breakout. Stock has Crossed 52 week High. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Positional Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart. Stop loss Trail by 30 SMA. Exit if Price Close below 30 SMA on Weekly Chart. Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market. Trade What you see not what you Think.
NSE:LUMAXTECH
by AnsariTV
52 Week High Breakout - Positional Trade - Long TermDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser. This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser. 52 Week Breakout. Stock has Crossed 52 week High. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Positional Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart. Stop loss Trail by 30 SMA. Exit if Price Close below 30 SMA on Weekly Chart. Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market. Trade What you see not what you Think.
NSE:LLOYDSME
by AnsariTV
52 Week High Breakout - Positional Trade - Long TermDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser. This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser. 52 Week Breakout. Stock has Crossed 52 week High. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Positional Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart. Stop loss Trail by 30 SMA. Exit if Price Close below 30 SMA on Weekly Chart. Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market. Trade What you see not what you Think.
NSE:KIRIINDUS
by AnsariTV