RKT Consolidates Above $10 Ahead of $18 BreakoutNYSE:RKT has been consistently making higher highs since late 2022.
A rally toward the end of 2023 drove the price up from $7 to around $18. Although the expanded supply block at that level has capped further gains, the price continues to consolidate above $10, still finding support from the mitigation block in that area.
However, because the consolidation is ongoing, the current price trend remains unclear—both the 30- and 50-period EMAs are flat.
In the medium term, once this consolidation phase completes, the price is expected to resume its move back toward $18 and beyond.
The downfall of METAMETA
Current Price: $465.20
1-Month Move: +4.8% (from $443.90)
1-Year Move: +35.7% (from $342.80)
Year High/Low: $527.30/$328.50
Technicals:
RSI: ~67.4 (nearing overbought)
Above 20-day MA, slightly below 50-day MA, above 200-day MA (short-term rally in a longer uptrend)
Options Data:
IV Rank: 85th percentile (high premiums)
Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (bearish skew)
Max Pain: $450.00
High OI: $460 puts, $470 calls
Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: META averages ~14.5% post-earnings, with 5/12 quarters showing downside.
IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-earnings, so time exits carefully.
Outlier: Llama/Meta sees bullish potential from call activity and AI-driven ad growth, but bearish signals dominate.
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)
Instrument: META
Direction: PUT
Strike: $460.00 (premium $0.72, fits $0.50–$1.00 target band)
Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.72
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-05-01)
Profit Target: $1.44 (~100% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.36 (~50% loss)
Confidence: 65%
Expected Move: ±$68.20 (~14.66%)
TWAP and Chaikin's Osc vs VWAP Orders and VWAP IndicatorThere are two primary Order Types that the Professional Side of the market use.
1. Time Weighted at Average Price, aka TWAP , is used extensively by the Dark Pool Buy Side, Derivative Developers, and Sell Side Banks of record for Buybacks for corporations.
The TWAP can be set at a penny to few pennies spread and pings and transacts on a specific TIME to PRICE. It can be set to time intervals shorter or longer. This is why the stock market is called "fully automated".
TWAP is used most of the time. It is rare for the Giant Institutions to use VWAP orders due to the May 2010 FLASH CRASH when a fundamental trader of e-minis accidentally hit the VWAP order type rather than the TWAP order type which caused a massive collapse of all stocks as VWAPs accelerate selling as volume increases.
2. Volume Weighted at Price or VWAP is ALSO an ORDER TYPE. It is primarily used by Small Funds Managers and Small Asset Managers who are independents trading their customers' investment money actively, often intraday. Volume Weighted at price ORDER TYPES are also automated and ping to trigger the order to transact as volume increases.
This is an easy, simple way for a busy small fund manager to cope with the complexity of buying and selling stocks with 10,000 share lots to 100,000 share lots. These are the NEW "whales" of the market.
Professional Traders Swing trade 1 million to 5 million or higher share-lot sizes. The size of the orders of the professional trader has increased significantly in the past decade.
All of you need to be aware of the market participants on the professional side as they control 80% of the 1 trillion dollars that exchange hands daily on the US Markets.
Using Chaikin's Oscillator is ideal for tracking the Dark Pool Buy Side who create the bottoms. This excellent indicator analyzes all 3 data sets: price, volume and time. Thus, it can signal early that the Dark Pools have slowly started to accumulate over time and the runs down will turn into a bottom and then pro traders will nudge price to inspire VWAP orders from the Smaller funds managers.
The VWAP INDICATOR is excellent for tracking the smaller funds managers' trading activity and it ALSO has price, volume, and time in the formula. So this is great for those of you who need an indicator for following smaller funds activity as these smaller funds VWAP orders trigger more and more volume and then runs that can move up or down for several days.
TradingView has an awesome group of indicators to use. You should customize your indicators to which market participant groups you wish to track so that you can be ready and in a position before the big runs up or down.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
MSFT is a no Brainer CALLMarket Context NASDAQ:MSFT
Current Price: $428.50
1-Month Move: +6.2% (from $403.20)
1-Year Move: +28.4% (from $333.80)
Year High/Low: $468.35/$309.45
Technicals:
RSI: ~63.2 (neutral, approaching overbought)
Above 20-day and 50-day MAs, slightly below 200-day MA (short-term strength in a longer uptrend)
Options Data:
IV Rank: 68th percentile (elevated premiums)
Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (slightly bullish skew)
Max Pain: $415.00
High OI: $420 calls, $400 puts
Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: MSFT averages ~5.8% post-earnings, with 7/12 quarters showing upside.
IV Crush: Expect 25–35% IV drop post-earnings, so plan exits carefully.
Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Llama, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bullish
Why? Strong AI/cloud growth narrative, consistent guidance beats, and call-heavy OI at $420–425. Max Pain at $415 suggests limited downside pull.
Outlier: Gemini flags macro risks and Max Pain gravity, leaning neutral but not bearish.
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked call (bullish, defined risk)
Instrument: MSFT
Direction: Call
Strike: $435.00 (premium $0.75, fits $0.50–$1.00 target band)
Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.75
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-30)
Profit Target: $1.50 (~100% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.38 (~50% loss)
Confidence: 70%
Expected Move: ±$24.90 (~5.8%)
BEST AI Signals in the market
CRWV behaves like early ARM..!The most important question anyone should answer before any investment/trade is:
Is the a chance for an Asymmetrical payoff?
If your answer to this question is yes, then look at the other factors!
ARM: after early phase of decline moved +250%!
CRVW: is still a very young publicly traded company but its charts behaves like ARM at its early stages of public trading!
From fundamental point of view, its customers must increased exponentially if there will be an Ai boom!
(Skin in the game)
SNAP is going down Market Context NYSE:SNAP
Current Price: $9.165
1-Month Move: +5.6% (from $8.68)
1-Year Move: -39.1% (from $15.05)
Year High/Low: $9.96/$7.16
Technicals:
RSI ~69.8 (near overbought)
Above 20-day MA, below 50/200-day MAs (short-term pop in a longer downtrend)
Options Data:
IV Rank: 75th percentile (high premiums)
Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (bearish skew)
Max Pain: $8.00
High OI: $9.00 puts, $10.00 calls
Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: SNAP averages 13.5% post-earnings, with a slight bearish bias (6/12 quarters down).
IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-print, so time your exit carefully.
Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bearish
Why? Overextended rally, high IV, Max Pain at $8.00, and “sell the news” risk.
Outlier: One model (Llama/Meta) sees bullish momentum from call activity, but it’s drowned out by bearish signals.
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)
Instrument: SNAP
Direction: Put
Strike: $8.50 (premium $0.52, fits $0.30–$0.60 target band)
Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.52
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-29)
Profit Target: $0.78 (~50% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.26 (50% loss)
Confidence: 65%
Expected Move: ±$1.24 (~13.5%)
Key Risks:
Positive earnings surprise (strong ad revenue or user growth).
Severe IV crush killing put value.
Broad market/tech rally lifting SNAP.
Upbeat guidance sparking a squeeze.
AMZN | Long | Earnings + Buyback Potential | (April 2025)AMZN | Long | Earnings + Buyback Potential | (April 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
Amazon is showing strength as it bounces off the VWAP level. With earnings approaching and a history of buybacks, the setup looks promising for a rebound after months of decline.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Around $196
Stop Loss: Below VWAP support (adjust to your risk)
TP1: $205
TP2: $217
TP3: $240
Partial Exits: 50% around major resistance zone near TP1–TP2
3️⃣ Key Notes:
AMZN has been trending down since February but is now reacting positively. The upcoming earnings could be a bullish catalyst, especially if there's a buyback announcement. Earnings per share and revenue have been strong. Watch for reaction at key resistance levels, and track the broader market sentiment (especially QQQ/NQ correlations).
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
Will revisit post-earnings to assess if momentum continues and whether to adjust targets or re-enter.
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Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
ASPI.NAZ or .JSE ASPI is an Isotope manufacturing Company based in South Africa.
Looking at the PA curve makes me jealous, as I should've been in long ago. (+1000%)
I'm waiting for the listing to appear on the Easy Equities platform.
Follow the Larger Trend. Use 2 to 3 time frames to see the 1H, 4H and 1W Trend. Make your decisions based on the 1W Trend to avoid overtrading.
Should you like my comments and chart studies - please smash that like button. It's just a click away.
Regards Graham
Is a Tesla Stock Rebound Imminent?Tesla's stock has recently faced volatility, partly due to first-quarter 2025 delivery figures that did not meet some market expectations. Despite this, several significant factors suggest a potential for upward movement in the share price. As the stock hovers around $292 in late April 2025, market observers are closely watching for catalysts that could shift sentiment and drive value appreciation for the electric vehicle and energy company.
Key indicators pointing towards a potential rebound include notable insider activity and the highly anticipated launch of a dedicated robotaxi service. A Tesla board member and Airbnb co-founder recently purchased over $1 million in TSLA stock, marking the first insider buy of this magnitude in approximately five years. This action signals strong internal confidence. Furthermore, the planned June launch of a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, using autonomous Model Y vehicles, is viewed as a transformative step that could open substantial new revenue streams and redefine Tesla's market position.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is unusual activity in the options market, where a significant investor placed a large bet on a substantial price increase in the near term through out-of-the-money call options. While recent delivery misses and concerns regarding external factors have contributed to past stock pressure, the combination of insider conviction, a looming disruptive service launch, and aggressive bullish options trading suggests that the market may be poised for a significant reaction to upcoming positive developments. Investors are keenly focused on the successful execution of the robotaxi strategy as a critical determinant of future stock performance.
NVDA – Losing Steam After Hitting ResistanceNVDA had been steadily climbing in a rising channel for the past few days, bouncing neatly off that lower trendline and giving bulls a reason to stay engaged. But today it finally lost that trendline — and to me, that’s a subtle but important shift in control. Buyers didn’t defend like they had before.
The rejection from the $111–$112 zone wasn’t random either. That area has been a sticky level on the daily chart — a prior swing high and also where a heavy Gamma Call Wall sits based on options data. Price tapped it, hesitated, and rolled over. Now with this break of structure on the 1-hour timeframe, I’m starting to lean cautious.
Momentum is fading. MACD is curling down and looks ready to cross bearish. Stoch RSI is already bottomed out, but there’s no bounce signal yet — just drifting in oversold. It feels like bulls are waiting, but not stepping in aggressively anymore.
On the daily chart, this entire push still looks like a lower high within a broader downtrend. And with price now back near $106.70, it’s hanging just above that key $105 level — which is not only a horizontal support zone but also lines up with a High Volume Level and a major GEX magnet. If that breaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see price gravitate toward $102 or even the $100 level where the Put Wall sits heavy.
🔧 Trade Setup Ideas
* Short Bias below $108: If NVDA stays below the broken channel, I’m leaning bearish. A clean rejection near $108–$109 offers a good risk/reward for short entries.
* Target: $105 first, then $102. Stop above $109.50.
* Long only if price reclaims the trendline and closes above $111 with volume. That would negate the breakdown and could signal a squeeze back toward $115.
🧠 Options Perspective (GEX-Informed)
* Put Play Idea: Buying a $105 Put for May 3rd expiry (0–3 DTE) could work if price flushes below $106.70. IV is still elevated, but the IV crush risk is smaller on directional moves.
* Gamma Roadmap:
* $105 = High Volume Node + HVL
* $102 = Strong Put Wall (7.5% GEX support)
* $100 = Final magnet if things really unwind
* Call Side Risk: Unless NVDA cleanly reclaims $111, calls above that level are a trap. A bounce back to $110 would be a fade zone unless momentum shifts.
So in short — the trendline broke, bulls are on their heels, and $105 is the level to watch. Until something changes, I’m favoring downside plays but being patient for cleaner setups.
Not advice — just sharing my thinking as I trade what I see.
Palantir Goes to Repeat Tycoon Buffett Early 1990s AchievementSomewhere in another Galaxy, in late December, 2024 (yet before The Second Coming of Trump), @TradingView asked at it awesome Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas.
1️⃣ What was your best trade this year?
2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025?
Here's what we answered:
1️⃣ What was your best trade this year?
- Surely Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR 💖
I followed Palantir all the year since January, 2024, from $16 per share, watch here .
Current result is 5X, to $80 per share.
Also I added more Palantir after SP500 Index inclusion in September 2024 watch here .
Current result is 2.6X, from $30 to $80 per share.
2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025?
- Once again, surely Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR 💖
It's gone 4 months or so... (Duh..? Ahaha.. 4 months, really? 😸😸😸)
Let see what's happened next at the main graph PLTR/SPX
First of all, let me explain in a few words what does this graph mean.
Rising (Blue) candle means Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR monthly return is better vs SPX
Falling (Red) candle means Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR monthly return is worse vs SPX
Conclusion
Palantir. The stock that outperformed S&P 500 Index, 11 consecutive months in a row.
Palantir. The stock that printed 11x since inception. 5.5x over the past twelve month and 1.5x in the year 2025 (the best one result so far over the all S&P 500 Index components).
Palantir. The stock that goes to repeat Tycoon Buffett achievement early 1990s (in 1992-93 Berkshire Hathway outperformed S&P 500 Index for a straight TWELVE MONTHS.
Palantir. Were we right with this stock on contest and won it? Exactly! Even though our prize has been toadly strangled. 🤭
--
Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
ASML Could Significantly Outperform Over The Next 5 YearsWhat Makes a Compounder?
"Compounder" has become a buzzword in investment circles, but we define it simply: a company that delivers higher-than-average returns for longer-than-average periods.
The formula is basic economics - a compounder excels at both sides of the supply-demand equation:
Demand side: Growing revenue and profits drives investor interest
Supply side: Reducing share count increases each investor's ownership percentage
Why ASML Makes the Cut
NASDAQ:ASML demonstrates classic compounder characteristics:
Growing Demand
- Revenue growth from 11B in 2018 to 32B today
- Net income increase from $2.6B to $9.3B in the same period
- Dominance in advanced chip manufacturing equipment, particularly EUV and DUV technology
Decreasing Supply
- Consistent share count reduction through buyback programs
- Management's clear focus on shareholder value
Why Now Is the Time to Buy
The current buying opportunity exists because:
- ASML is trading at the lower end of its historical P/E and P/S ranges
- The recent drawdown is among the deepest in years, comparable only to the 2022 tech slowdown
- The current pullback reflects cyclical semiconductor industry dynamics, not fundamental issues
- TTM revenue has already hit all-time highs, but the stock hasn't caught up
Risks to Consider
- Potential semiconductor manufacturer CAPEX delays affecting ASML's backlog
- Geopolitical risk with Taiwan, where many customers including TSMC are located
- Premium valuation relative to broader market
Trend Line Test: $MARA’s Next Move?If NASDAQ:MARA has formed a bottom, a breakout above the established downward trend line may signal a potential trend reversal. This could be a bullish indication, especially if accompanied by increased trading volume or confirmation from other technical indicators such as RSI crossing above 50. In such a scenario, it might be considered a favorable entry point for traders anticipating upward momentum.
Tesla Faces Key Technical Hurdle Near $288Tesla shares have rebounded sharply from April’s low, but the rally is now stalling near a confluence of resistance:
🔴 $288.20 = February swing high
🔵 Price testing the 200-day SMA (~$291) from below
📈 MACD remains positive but momentum is flattening
📊 RSI at 58 – bullish but not yet overbought
A clean breakout above $288–291 would likely confirm a medium-term trend reversal, exposing upside toward $310 and possibly $340. Failure to break could see Tesla consolidate or fade back toward the 50-day SMA (~$268).
Keep an eye on volume and follow-through in the next couple of sessions.
-MW
$UNH Rinse & Repeat Round #2- Fundamentally it's undervalued for the quality blue chip company. My detailed analysis is on the older post I made earlier this year. I have attached that as a reference.
- In my previous swing, I bought NYSE:UNH on a sell off @ 441 and sold @600 before earning as a de-risking strategy. I'm glad that it did work out.
- I'm happy that NYSE:UNH is again trading at a discount and with compressed Earning multiple. This time I am buying it even lower than where I bought last time i.e 441 and I was happy with that price average.
- Whereas I do believe that NYSE:UNH EPS is lowered but it is lowered slightly which doesn't warrant a big sell off like this.
- I wanted to wait further before entering but I can't stop myself from buying this name NYSE:UNH at a price where I believe it's very undervalued.
- Therefore, I have re-entered the NYSE:UNH and added it to my portfolio . I will consider adding further if selling pressure continues because I don't want to time the bottom.
- But undecisive market and lumpy market, going with a defensive name like this is a no brainer.
UBER Long Breakout Play | 4H ChartUber Technologies Inc. (UBER) just broke out of a long-standing descending trendline, confirming a bullish structural shift.
Entry: $79.43
SL: $70.45
TP: $86.93
R:R : 1:1.8
Technical Highlights
• Clean breakout above descending trendline and horizontal resistance at $77.35
• Retest and hold above previous resistance confirms bullish strength
• Strong bullish momentum and candle close above key levels
• Targeting the next major resistance zone near $87
Bias
Bullish continuation as long as $77.35 holds as support.
Plan
Trail stop if price sustains above $82. Look for volume confirmation on breakout retest.
Tesla: More Room in Wave 4With the recent increases, TSLA approached the more significant local high from early April. Although we locate the price in a turquoise downtrend impulse, the internal corrective upward move of wave 4 still has some more room. With the following wave 5, the stock should then fall below the support at $215.01 to complete the magenta wave (3), which is also part of a downtrend impulse. Meanwhile, our alternative scenario suggests a much faster progression. We consider it 27% likely that with the low on April 7, the blue wave alt.(II) and thus the major corrective movement have already ended. In this case, the path would be clear for a new uptrend of the blue wave alt.(III), which would lead to increases above the resistance at $488.50. Primarily, however, we expect the corrective movement to conclude at a later time and at lower levels.