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Trade Review - SYMI plan to be more active and share my trades and insights regularly. Information I swing trade with focus on stock with short term momentum. My trades are identified through a two-step screening process. I use a passive screener outside of market hours to manually select stocks based on structure and position, to allow preparation and prevent too many options. At market open, I run an active screener to track for movement within the watchlist, as timing and momentum in selected stocks can be unpredictable. This allows me to be time efficient, I require no more than 20-30 minutes per open session. Identified through my passive screener outside of market hours, this stock showed an initial momentum move to the upside on the daily timeframe, followed by consolidation near the mean price - a setup conducive to continuation. I occasionally check a higher timeframe (weekly) for context; in this case, it made a overextension to the downside which could follow with a pullback toward the mean (or not). The aim here isn’t to predict but to take a bet / capitalize on potential imbalances when they appear. Thus it was added to the watchlist. At market open, this stock appeared on my active scanner, and when it reached 24.60, I entered as a clear range expansion was forming. I typically scale out at 1R and hold the remaining position for a measured move (projected from the prior momentum move). While the approach is straightforward, I occasionally adjust based on real-time conditions, as seen in this example. Execution details are shown below. Trade Overview • Structure: Bullish Continuation (Daily) and Bearish Pullback (Weekly) • Position: Near mean price (Daily) and extended from mean price (Weekly). • Entry Trigger: Range Expansion Entry Details • Entry Price: 24.60 • Stop Price: 22.07 • Target Price: 34.32 • Expected Risk/Reward: 3.84 R Exit Strategy • Exit Price: Closed 50% at 29.84 and 25% at 29.45. Performance Summary • Result: Price have moved 20.53% with a profit of 2R, trailing 25% with a near SL. I wrote a bit more than usual for this review since it's my first review post, but the real approach itself is quite simple. Future posts will be more concise.
NASDAQ:SYMLong
by Market-Core
Nestlé SA: A stock to keep foreverCompany Overview Nestlé S.A., established in 1866 and headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland, is the world’s largest food and beverage conglomerate. Known for its extensive portfolio of iconic brands like Nescafé, KitKat, Maggi, and Perrier, Nestlé has maintained a strong presence in North America and Europe, which together account for 59% of its revenue. In addition, it is a global leader in pet food products through brands like Purina, a sector which has shown resilience and growth. While Nestlé’s stock has faced challenges recently, it continues to be a staple in long-term portfolios. Recent Stock Performance Nestlé's share price has declined by over 35% since its peak in 2021-2022. This underperformance relative to the market has presented a potential entry point for long-term investors. This decline in share price is attributed to external factors such as increased competition from new weight-loss products, currency exchange fluctuations, and rising global interest rates. Despite these challenges, the company’s enduring market position, particularly in emerging markets, underscores its resilience and potential for long-term growth. Business Segments and Revenue Breakdown 1. Beverages: Revenue of $25 billion, featuring globally recognized brands like Nescafé and Nespresso. 2. Pet Care: Nestlé leads the pet food industry with brands like Purina, generating approximately $17 billion annually. The pet sector is growing as consumers increasingly seek premium products. 3. Nutrition and Health: Generating $15.3 billion, this segment includes specialized nutrition products for infants and adults. 4. Prepared Meals and Cooking Aids: With approximately $12 billion in revenue, this segment includes Maggi and other ready-to-eat meal products. 5. Dairy Products and Ice Cream: A significant segment with $11 billion in revenue, including well-known dairy brands. 6. Confectionery: With brands like KitKat, this segment contributes over $9 billion. Investment Thesis Nestlé stands out as a “forever stock” for several reasons: 1. Dividend Aristocrat: Nestlé has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years, offering a current yield of approximately 3.8%. Since 2009, the company has returned CHF 181 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, a healthy mix that demonstrates Nestlé’s commitment to rewarding shareholders. 2. Global Presence and Market Share: Approximately 41% of Nestlé's revenue originates from emerging markets (Asia, Africa, South America), where there is strong demand for premium products, a growing middle class, and solid organic growth. In these regions, Nestlé continues to gain market share and expand its brand presence. 3. Pet Sector Growth: Premiumization in the pet care market offers a robust growth driver, particularly as pet owners show a high willingness to spend on quality food. This sector remains resilient, with consumers even prioritizing their pets’ needs over their own during economic downturns. 4. Currency Challenges and Inflation Resistance: Nestlé reports in Swiss Francs, making it susceptible to currency fluctuations. In 2023, for instance, North American revenue grew by 5.3% in local currencies but showed a slight decline when converted to Swiss Francs. This effect, while impacting short-term results, does not detract from the company’s overall growth potential. Nestlé’s long-standing pricing power and ability to adjust prices to maintain margins further solidify its resilience against inflation and currency volatility. 5. Resilient Business Model: Nestlé’s predictable cash flows and low-risk business model make it an attractive investment, particularly as interest rates rise. While the recent preference for high-growth tech stocks has contributed to Nestlé's undervaluation, the company’s defensive nature remains appealing in a volatile market. Valuation and Pricing Nestlé currently trades at a P/E ratio of approximately 18-19, reflecting its steady but unspectacular growth profile. This valuation, while fair, does not fully capture Nestlé’s strong brand portfolio, market position, or growth potential in emerging markets. The company’s ROIC has been trending upward, indicating that management is effectively deploying capital to generate returns above the cost of capital. Nestlé’s organic growth is targeted at 4% for 2024, with EPS growth projected at 6-10% in the medium term. Should the stock price fall to a P/E ratio of 15, it could present a compelling buying opportunity for building a substantial position. Risks and Considerations 1. Competition from Weight-Loss Drugs: Nestlé’s food business faces an emerging threat from weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, which could reduce demand for certain products. In response, the company is developing new health products to mitigate muscle loss, which may offer a future growth opportunity. 2. Currency Exchange Effects: The appreciation of the Swiss Franc against other major currencies negatively impacts reported revenue and earnings. While a short-term challenge, this effect does not impact the company’s fundamental business model. 3. Rising Interest Rates: Defensive stocks like Nestlé become relatively less attractive as interest rates rise. However, given the company’s stable cash flows and dividends, Nestlé remains a reliable choice for income-focused investors. Additionaly interest rates have been going down over the past months, so that is good. Conclusion and Recommendation Nestlé is a high-quality, defensive stock with a stable growth outlook and an attractive dividend profile. Its diversified product line, strong presence in emerging markets, and growth in the pet food sector make it a reliable, long-term investment option. For investors seeking stable returns and consistent dividends, Nestlé remains a strong addition to any portfolio, particularly as a counterbalance to higher-risk, growth-oriented stocks. In conclusion, Nestlé I think is fairly valued at its current P/E ratio. Long-term investors can consider building a position gradually, potentially increasing their stake if the P/E ratio declines. While competitors like Coca-Cola and Unilever also offer stable income, Nestlé’s broader global reach, particularly in emerging markets, provides a competitive edge that may lead to superior returns over the next decade. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
BX:NESRLong
by marc_kober
Opening (IRA): MSTR Dec 20th 75/155 Short Put Vertical... for a 5.43 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 61.1/113.9. Doing something a little different here, selling the 10 delta short put and buying a put that cuts BPE in about half over doing a naked. Going low delta because, well, the underlying kind of scares the poo out of me. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 74.57 Max Profit: 5.43 ROC at Max: 7.28% 50% Max: 2.72 ROC at 50% Max: 3.64 Compare: Dec 20th 155 Short Put (Cash Secured) BPE: 148.30 Max Profit: 6.65 ROC at Max: 4.48% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NaughtyPines
Long BROS @39.47 (oversold)Just went long bc I missed it at the close yesterday. Oversold and will hold each lot until overbought and profitable, adding lots as long as it's oversold. Record over the last 12 months for indicator and exit strategy on BROS: 40-0 Avg gain = 5.8% Median gain = 4.2% Range = +0.1% to 18.2% Cumulative 12M gain on equal dollar amount trades: 232% A weird one to trade. 12 of the wins gained less than 1% and 11 were over 10%. Last 7 trades were all +10% or more. This one can have very long losing streaks, though. Held as many as 17 lots at once before closing bc of a long downtrend. It's a great reminder to use position sizes that keep you from running out of capital before the stock runs out of downward momentum. This one gives trading opportunities really often, too. 40 in 12 months is a LOT, though that's partly bc of two really long losing streaks. Will update any adds or closing of positions.
NYSE:BROSLong
by redwingcoach
4
Staying LongI haven’t posted in a while. Anywho. Still holding since $45 sadly. I have averaged down a good bit, but yeah. Still here. Weekly chart, strong upward support from the early days. Should be coming to a breakout by January. Knowing Bitcoin, it’ll probably happy thanksgiving or Christmas. Who knows. We are getting closer and closer to the magical 18 months post-halving. I think it’ll happen sooner. MARA makes no sense. Largest and best Bitcoin miner, yet underperforming. My theory is now that there are ETF’s, funds will choose those as a more direct correlation to BTC rather than miners. My investment advice, stop trading and start investing. Throw some in an index fund and manage your risk with the rest. Wealth isn’t built overnight. For a quick win often results in a quick loss. But a win that is built over years will not be lost in one night. The pain and endurance will not let that happen. *none of this is investment advice.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by daSNAKE601
2
FNMA Monthly BreakoutFull disclosure, I've owned this stock from 2011 and already pulled my original money out and also scaled back in again over time Has had a multi year triangle building for years, and broke out of this and closed outside of this at a daily level in the last 12 hours A trump victory puts the release from government conservativeship back on the table again which is a solid catalyst... One worth watching... as I think this is about to rocket based on my 15 years of watching it
OTC:FNMALong
by dionvuletich
MOASS: BOOM!TLDR of video: -MOASS is happening now -Elliott Wave Idealized Target: 100K -Ideal Target for your average retail investor: 1800 - 2400 -Psychologically, Wave 3, which we are in, is the most intense -VWAP is your guide as price will stay above identified VWAP and will only touch it again once MOASS is over -Fibs are your guide as well Expect price to begin running next week folks We will break above identified VWAPS and that will be the surefire signal that MOASS has lifted off for the last time SEE YOU AT THE TOP!!!
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NYSE:GMELong
by Heartbeat_Trading
40