The Case for NVDA to 40As a prereq to this post it would be good to read my post on SMCI. In that I link to all the real time forecasts in SMCI of the methods we're using for the NVDA forecast.
And somewhat lay the groundwork for this post.
Click the post to read in full.
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So let's start with the big overview. NVDA for a long time has been trading inside of the risk zone for the end of wave.
Here's a forecast on NVDA when it was 500 (pre split)in which I mapped out the full extension of an Elliot wave.
Click the post to read in full.
In that post based on the assumption the previous rally was wave one we could make a forecast of a rally to around 800 - 900 and then some head fake action above 1,000.
I also put fibs on the chart and showed how this move would be a breaking of the 1.61 and a full extension to the 4.23.
As you can see, we're now sitting right at that big 4.23 level I brought up back in 2024.
Here's the thing spoken of in the SMCI top.
In that post I spoke about the tendency for move to end on spike outs of the 4.23 and they can make full retracements all the way to the 1.27 (or worse, in some cases - that's the bull setup).
The 4.23 is a big decision point. If NVDA held the 4.23 as support I'd be insanely bullish on this for the next couple years ahead. It'd be a huge win for the bulls I'd think.
However, if that was a head fake over the 4.23, you've seen the best you'll see from NVDA for a while. Indeed, we would be very close to entering the worst you've seen from it.
