MSFT Under Pressure: Will Gamma Support at $370 Hold?
🧠 Market Context:
Following the Trump tariff announcement, risk-off sentiment is dominating tech. MSFT, while usually defensive within mega-cap tech, has cracked below its short-term HVL and is now testing a key gamma pivot zone at $370, right where the PUT Support is clustered.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
Structure:
* Price has formed a lower high and broke down from the $377.50 HVL area.
* Multiple rejections near $387–390, which aligns with GEX call resistance.
* It's now hugging $370, a key support level that could turn into a breakdown zone if breached.
Levels:
* Support:
* 🔹 $370 = PUT Support (Gamma Cluster)
* 🔹 $367.24 = recent low
* 🔹 Below $367, air pocket to $360 zone
* Resistance:
* 🔺 $375 = minor supply & failed bounce spot
* 🔺 $377.50 = HVL
* 🔺 $385–390 = heavy call resistance
Indicators:
* Elevated selling volume on each lower high suggests distribution.
* If $370 fails to hold, expect continuation toward $367 and possibly $360.
🔥 GEX & Options Flow Analysis
GEX Map:
* GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 → Dealers short gamma below $375
* Put Support:
* $370 = Highest Gamma PUT Support
* $367.24 = Real market low from March 28–29 selloff
* Call Walls:
* $385–390 = Dealer sell zone
* $392 = Gamma ceiling
* $396 = Major rejection level from recent highs
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 71.2 → Traders are buying volatility, indicating fear.
* IVx avg 32.3 vs IVx 3.32% → Still rising vol, near-term bearish bias
* PUT$ 10% → Surprisingly low, but this could reflect late hedging, not bullishness.
🧭 Trade Scenarios
🐻 Bearish Breakdown:
* Entry: Break and close below $370
* Target: $367 → $360
* Stop: $374 (tight risk control)
* Confirmation: Watch SPY and QQQ breakdowns in sync.
🐂 Bullish Gamma Bounce:
* Entry: Hold above $370 + reclaim $375
* Target: $385 → $390 (scalp target)
* Stop: Close under $369
🧠 Summary:
MSFT is hanging by a thread — the $370 zone is the battle line. GEX shows it as a PUT-heavy support, but with dealers short gamma, any break could cascade into forced sell hedging.
A bounce could trigger a dead cat rally toward $385, but bulls will need to reclaim $377.50 to make that happen.
⚔️ Trade Idea:
Buy $365P (1-week expiry) if $370 breaks with volume
Buy $385C only on confirmed reclaim of $377.50 + strength in QQQ
This is a dealer-controlled zone, so price will likely whip around until gamma flips.
Disclaimer: This breakdown is for educational purposes only. Always trade with proper risk management and do your own research.
