OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Bond Yield Recession Indicator
Updated
This model uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.
By a simple gimpse, it has been correct for the last two recessions of 2000 and 2008.
newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
By a simple gimpse, it has been correct for the last two recessions of 2000 and 2008.
newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
Release Notes
v2Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in publication is governed by House rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.
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