Buffett IndicatorThis is an open-source version of the Buffett indicator. The old version was code-protected and broken, so I created another version.
It's computed simply as the entire SPX 500 capitalization divided by the US GDP. Since TradingView does not have data for the SPX 500 capitalization, I used quarterly values of SPX devisors as a proxy.
I tried to create another version of the Buffett indicator for other countries/indexes, but I can't find the data. If you can help me find data for index divisors, I can add more choices to this indicator.
It's interesting to see how this indicator's behavior has changed in the last few years. Levels that looked crazy are not so crazy anymore.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
Buffett
Buffett Indicator: Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio [WhaleCrew]Our Implementation of the famous Buffett Indicator a long-term valuation indicator for stocks.
Calculation: Wilshire 5000 Index divided by US GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Buffett Indicator [Bitcoin Machine]This is the Warren Buffett Indicator, the total market cap relative to the US gross domestic product (GDP). It is also called "Market Cap to GDP Indicator". For the market cap typically the Wilshire 5000 total market cap is used, which is representing the value of all stocks traded in the United States. Tradingview just provides the Wilshire W4500. We can calculate the W5000 by adding the S&P500 to the W4500.
Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator and as pointed by Warren Buffett, the indicator is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” It used as a broad way of assessing whether the country’s stock market is overvalued or undervalued, compared to a historical average.
Remark: The Wilshire W4500 and the S&P500 are indices and denoted in "index points" (not USD). The Original Buffett Indicator is using market cap in US-Dollar. So the right scale of the indicator is different to the original one.
Intrinsic value calculation Intrinsic value calculator based on Warren Buffet's and Ben Graham's work
In value investing determing the true value of a COMPANY instead of a stock price is crucial.
This little indicator shows the "Intrinsic value" of the choosen stock meaning the value of the stock in 10 years time. Calculation is based on historical book value's average annual growth rate and dividends paid.
Since this is about long therm investing, use monthly charts.
"Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.”
– Warren Buffett
One way to calculate that is by the growth in per share book value and dividends taken in the forseeable future (10 years) than discount it with the prevailing 10 year note's rate.
In the inputs you have to set 2 variables:
1. How many years back you have the first data for book value per share available?
2. What was the per share book value that year?
(Bookvalue is ploted in olive colour and you can get the oldest one if you move your cursor over the latest data on the left)
CAUTION! You have to reenter it for every stock you analyse as this is stock-specific data!
After setting the input data, you will see the "Intrinsic Value"'s pink curve ploted over the price chart.
If the price is well below the pink line, the company is undervalued and can be a possible applicant for long therm investment.
Margin of safety: when the current price is 50% below the intrinsic value that means a 10% yearly growth potential (100% growth in 10 years) or a 100% margin of safety.
I am a beginer in Pine so please excuse my coding...
If anybody knows hot to extract historical data from 15 years ago, please share it with me, so I can automate the whole calculation without inputs necessary.
