Bull and Bear Market '20% IndicatorThis indicator uses the somewhat crude method of calculating bear/bull markets using the following popular ' 20% rule ':
A bear market begins when an asset trades 20% below its recent high for more than two months, a bear market ends when an asset trades 20% above its recent low for one month or more.
The 1d time-frame should be used, here's why:
"A bear market begins when an asset trades 20% below its recent high for more than two months."
If we take the standard trading month to be around 20-22 days (excluding weekends), then two months would be approximately 40-44 days. This is why we set the `bearDuration` to 60 days in the script to capture the "more than two months" criteria. Using a daily timeframe, 60 bars represent roughly 3 months (since markets are not open every day due to weekends and holidays).
"...a bear market ends when an asset trades 20% above its recent low for one month or more."
This is why the `bullDuration` is set to 20 days in the script, which represents roughly one trading month on a daily timeframe.
So, to capture the mentioned bear and bull market definitions, you'd want to apply the script on a daily (1d/1D) chart.
Cycles
MMA mainpanelI stumbled on the MMA in the “Active Investing” course notes by Alan Hull (who invented the Hull Moving Average)
alanhull.com
He writes on page 13:
“Multiple moving averages, MMAs, are a sophisticated tool that can be used in a range of applications. MMAs are a series of lines that track and filter the weekly price movements. They consist of 2 sets of lines that allow Technical Analysts to observe and compare the immediate behavior of price activity with the long term behavior of the price activity. Exponential moving averages are used for this type of analysis. The price bars in the following chart have been switched off to improve readability of the MMA lines.”
“Once we have found a share that has an acceptable 'Rate of return' we must make a qualitative judgment of the trend. We are looking for a strong and consistent trend that is not likely to reverse shortly after we enter the market. The following points are critical;
- The long term group must be spreading apart or running parallel with each other.
- The long term group must be pointing upwards.
- The straighter the long term group of lines are; the less volatile the trend is.
- The short term group can pullback (ie. compress together) but if they cross into the long term group then the trend is weakening and may be about to break.
This type of qualitative analysis is only used when entering the market and the idea is to avoid volatility. We want to 'Buy and Hold' and not get bounced in and out of the market. Judging the quality of trends is the most subjective function we will have to perform.”
Because I tend to close positions too soon, I tried MMA. I found that it can help me to stay in position as long as the trend is going on. TradingView offers several scripts for MMA, this version differs from the others because I added color zones and linecolor changes to mark the trend according to Alan’s norms:
An uptrend is marked with a blue zone when the short term group is above the long term group and the long term group is sorted correctly and ema50 points up. The zone is purple when vice versa in downtrend. When there is no trend no zone is colored, but the lines are made gray.
Because of Alan’s idea to show MMA without price bars, I created both an overlay version for the main panel and a version for a sub panel.
US Recession IndicatorThe US Recession Indicator is designed to identify recessions as they happen, using two reputable indicators that have accurately foreseen all past recessions since 1969. Unlike the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which determines recession dates after the fact, this indicator seeks to spot recessions in real-time. When both of these distinct metrics meet certain criteria, the chart's background becomes shaded, signifying a strong likelihood that the economy is in a recession. Furthermore, a built-in alert system keeps users updated without constant monitoring.
The first metric is the Smoothed Recession Probabilities developed by Marcelle Chauvet. It is based on a dynamic-factor markov-switching model that assesses four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments and real manufacturing and trade sales. It offers a mathematical analysis of how recessions deviate from expansions. In essence, this index mirrors the probability of the prevailing true economic situation being a recession, grounded on the current GDP data.
The second metric is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator developed by Claudia Sahm. It operates on the principle that changes in the unemployment rate can be used to identify the onset of a recession. According to this rule, if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point from the preceding year, it flags a potential recession.
For this combined indicator, the thresholds are intentionally set lower than when each metric is used individually. Both metrics must simultaneously suggest a potential recession in order to send a signal. This stems from the realisation that neither metric is infallible and has, on occasion, sent false signals in the past. By requiring both to align, the likelihood of a false positive is reduced. However, it's crucial to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, leaving the door open for potential false alerts which may not be confirmed by the NBER.
Global Liquidity IndexThe Global Liquidity Index offers a consolidated view of all major central bank balance sheets from around the world. For consistency and ease of comparison, all values are converted to USD using their relevant forex rates and are expressed in trillions. The indicator incorporates specific US accounts such as the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP), both of which are subtracted from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to give a more nuanced view of US liquidity. Users have the flexibility to enable or disable specific central banks and special accounts based on their preference. Only central banks that both don’t engage in currency pegging and have reliable data available from late 2007 onwards are included in this aggregated liquidity model.
Global Liquidity Index = Federal Reserve System (FED) - Treasury General Account (TGA) - Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP) + European Central Bank (ECB) + People's Bank of China (PBC) + Bank of Japan (BOJ) + Bank of England (BOE) + Bank of Canada (BOC) + Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) + Reserve Bank of India (RBI) + Swiss National Bank (SNB) + Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) + Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) + Bank of Korea (BOK) + Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) + Sweden's Central Bank (Riksbank) + Central Bank of Malaysia (BNM).
This tool is beneficial for anyone seeking to get a snapshot of global liquidity to interpret macroeconomic trends. By examining these balance sheets, users can deduce policy trajectories and evaluate the global economic climate. It also offers insights into asset pricing and assists investors in making informed capital allocation decisions. Historically, riskier assets, such as small caps and cryptocurrencies, have typically performed well during periods of rising liquidity. Thus, it may be prudent for investors to avoid additional risk unless there's a consistent upward trend in global liquidity.
Oil Price Prediction (Highly Accurate)It's a little-known fact that gold prices move preceded oil prices by 20 months.
If you don't believe me here is a short video from Tom McClellan discussing this www.cnbc.com
This gives us one of the best and highly accurate indicators of what oil will do in the months to come.
HOW TO USE.
When adding the script to your charts it's important to make a couple of adjustments.
Click the triple dots (...), scroll down to pin to scale, and click pin to new scale.
Rght-click the new scale and click auto (fits data to screen)
Go into the indicator settings and turn off the red line.
What you'll be left with is a price projection on where oil prices will go. This becomes your 30,000-foot view. It is important for traders to know if they're coming into a bullish, bearish or consolidating market and this indicator does that.
Its important to mention this is for Monthly charts.
Happy Trading
[R]2 - ReversionThe Idea:
I had the idea for this script when I read an article about how assets tend to revert to their long-term average or mean. The concept behind "R2" is based on the assumption that extreme deviations from the average tend to be corrected. For example, if an asset is trading well above its historical average, there is a possibility that the price will return towards the average. Conversely, if an asset is trading well below its average, there is a tendency for it to move back towards the average.
This concept serves as the foundation for this script. I have tried to keep the representation as simple as possible, and please remember that "Reversion" (as it's called in financial terms) is not a guaranteed rule but a statistical phenomenon.
The Indicator:
This indicator calculates the average and the distance of closing prices from this average every X periods. The calculated value fluctuates between 0. If the calculated value moves from above towards the zero line, it may indicate further declining prices. If the value moves from below towards the zero line, it may indicate rising prices. If the value is below the zero line, the area between the zero line and the calculated value is displayed in red. If the value is above the zero line, the area is displayed in green.
You can adjust the number of periods. The 'Multiplier' allows you to set how sensitive the indicator reacts, and the 'Threshold' variable sets the threshold for calculating a new average. It's best to adjust the settings to find the most suitable configuration for your needs.
AlexD Intraday market footprintThe indicator shows probability of a moving average non reversal at certain moment of day.
IMF_Predict line shows the probability of a reversal for the specified period.
moving average - period/2 shifted sma of typical price ( (close+high+low)/3 ).
Parameters:
Number of days - previous days to calculate the probability
SMA filter period - chart smoothing period
IMF smooth period - additional indicator smoothing after calculation
IMF predict period - period for calculating the probability of a reversal in the next N bars
Skip N hours in days(optimisation) - I recommend a half of the normal session time. Low values - long calculation time, High values - skipping days.
Indian Market Sessions for BacktestingThis indicator is designed to increase the quality of your backtesting in the Indian Market.
NSE & BSE run from 9:15 am IST to 3:30 pm IST.
Naturally different times have different kinds of volatility.
On your chart you will find premarked -
Saffron - 9:15 am to 10:30 am - Opening Session - High Volatility Observed Historically
White - 10:35 am to 2:25 pm - Middle Session - Lower Volatility Observed Historically
Green - 2:30 pm to 3:30 pm - Closing Session - Medium to High Volatility Observed Historically
You will also find the start of each session marked with an arrow.
Feel free to change the times from the input settings and the color and visibility from the style settings.
_______________
Usage:
When you backtest any strategies, say moving average crossovers, also mark the sessions in your sheet which will help you further increase accuracy.
Feel free to drop your doubts in the comments.
Earnings Yield SpreadThe Earnings Yield Spread might offer an investor some insight into areas of value.
Earnings yield is the ratio of Diluted earnings per share over the trailing twelve months (TTM) to the company’s share price. Earnings yield shows how much the company has earned per share as a percentage of its share price. It shows investors how much yield they are getting in earnings in return for owning the stock at its current share price. (Thank you, TradingView)
One might wonder how the earnings yield on their investment compares to the yield on a US 10 year treasury bond. The Earnings Yield Spread indicator will read above zero if the stock in question earnings yield is higher than US10Y and will read below zero if the stock in question earnings yield is lower than the US10Y.
Earnings yield is relative to the stock in question, so comparisons should be drawn to its own historical reading and not to other symbols.
Price Legs: Average Heights; 'Smart ATR'Price Legs: Average Heights; 'Smart ATR'. Consol Range Gauge
~~ Indicator to show small and large price legs (based on short and long input pivot lengths), and calculating the average heights of these price legs; counting legs from user-input start time ~~
//Premise: Wanted to use this as something like a 'Smart ATR': where the average/typical range of a distinct & dynamic price leg could be calculated based on a user-input time interval (as opposed to standard ATR, which is simply the average range over a consistent repeating period, with no regard to market structure). My instinct is that this would be most useful for consolidated periods & range trading: giving the trader an idea of what the typical size of a price leg might be in the current market state (hence in the title, Consol Range gauge)
//Features & User inputs:
-Start time: confirm input when loading indicator by clicking on the chart. Then drag the vertical line to change start time easily.
-Large Legs (toggle on/off) and user-input pivot lookback/lookforward length (larger => larger legs)
-Small Legs (toggle on/off) and user-input pivot lookback/lookforward length (smaller => smaller legs)
-Display Stats table: toggle on/off: simple view- shows the averages of large (up & down), small (up & down), and combined (for each).
-Extended stats table: toggle on/off option to show the averages of the last 3 legs of each category (up/down/large/small/combined)
-Toggle on/off Time & Price chart text labels of price legs (time in mins/hours/days; price in $ or pips; auto assigned based on asset)
-Table position: user choice.
//Notes & tips:
-Using custom start time along with replay mode, you can select any arbitrary chunk of price for the purpose of backtesting.
-Play around with the pivot lookback lengths to find price legs most suitable to the current market regime (consolidating/trending; high volatility/ low volatility)
-Single bar price legs will never be counted: they must be at least 2 bars from H>>L or L>>H.
//Credits: Thanks to @crypto_juju for the idea of applying statistics to this simple price leg indicator.
Simple View: showing only the full averages (counting from Start time):
View showing ONLY the large legs, with Time & Price labels toggled ON:
Bull / Bear Market RegimeBull / Bear Market Regime
Instructions:
- A simple risk on or risk off indicator based on CBOE's Implied Correlation and VIX to highlight and indicate Bull / Bear Markets. To be used with the S&P500 index as that's the source from where the CBOE calculates and measures implied volatility & implied correlation. Can also be used with the other indices such as: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, & Nasdaq100, & Index ETF's such as DIA, SPY, QQQ, etc.
- Know the active regime, see the larger picture using the Daily or Weekly view, and visualize the current "Risk On (Bull) or Risk Off (Bear)" environment.
Description:
- Risk On and Risk Off simplified & visualized. Know if we are in a RISK ON or RISK OFF environment (Bull or Bear Market). (Absolute bottoms and tops will occur BEFORE a Risk On (Bull Market) or Risk Off (Bear Market) environment is confirmed!) This indicator is not meant to bottom tick or uptick market price action, but to show the active regime.
- Green: Bull Market, Risk On, low volatility, and low risk.
- Red: Bear Market, Risk Off, high volatility, and higher risk.
Buy & Sell Indicators (DAILY time frame)
- Nothing is 100% guaranteed! Can be used for short to medium term trades at the users discretion in BEAR MARKETS!!
- These signals are meant to be used during a RISK OFF / BEAR MARKET environment that tends to be accompanied with high volatility. A Risk on / Bull Market environment tends to have low volatility and endless rallies, so the signals will differ and in most instances not apply for Bull market / Risk on regime.
- The SELL signal will more often than not signal that a pullback is near in a BULL market and that a BMR-Bear Market Rally is almost over in a BEAR market.
- The BUY signal will have far more accuracy in a BEAR market-high volatility environment and can Identify short-term and major bottoms.
Always use proper sizing and risk management!
GLOBAL LIQUIDITY (Simple Proxy)I know there are many global liquidity indicators out there similar to this one.
This one just adds a little bit of more options for visualize different central banks and either stack data, see year over year changes, or visualize separate unstacked data.
HILOCLOP AnalysisThe "HILOCLOP Analysis" indicator is designed to analyze price data based on different conditions and provide insights into market trends and patterns. Let's break down its features and understand its potential usefulness in trading:
Sample Length: The indicator allows the user to specify the sample length, which determines the number of bars or periods considered for the analysis. This parameter can be adjusted to capture short-term or long-term trends and patterns in the market.
Raw Up/Down Analysis: The indicator calculates the number of occurrences where the current price values (high, low, open, close) are higher or lower than their previous values. It provides separate counts for each price component. By visualizing these counts on the chart, traders can identify periods of upward or downward movement in the price data.
HICLOP Analysis: The indicator offers a color scheme option called "HICLOP," which determines the color of the plotted results. If the HICLOP analysis is enabled, the plots representing raw up/down counts will have different colors based on whether the current count is higher or lower than the previous count. This color coding helps traders quickly identify changes in price trends.
Unchecking this Box will Show the general trend.
Raw HICLOP Color Scheme
Trend Color Scheme
Analysis Up vs. Down: The indicator provides an option to analyze instances where all four price components (high, low, open, close) are higher or lower than their respective previous values. This analysis helps traders identify periods of strong upward or downward movement in the market.
Analysis High vs. Low: The indicator compares the number of occurrences where the current high is higher than the previous high and the current low is higher than the previous low. It provides insights into whether the market is experiencing higher highs or higher lows, which can help traders determine the strength of an upward or downward trend.
Analysis Open vs. Close: The indicator compares the number of occurrences where the current close is higher than the previous close and the current open is higher than the previous open. This analysis helps traders assess the relationship between opening and closing prices, providing insights into the strength of buying or selling pressure in the market.
The usefulness of the "HILOCLOP Analysis" indicator in trading depends on the specific trading strategy and the trader's preferences. Here are a few potential use cases:
Trend Identification: By analyzing the raw up/down counts and the HICLOP color scheme, traders can identify trends and changes in price momentum. Increasing raw up counts and corresponding color changes to positive values may indicate an upward trend, while increasing raw down counts and negative color changes may suggest a downward trend.
Confirmation of Breakouts: Traders often look for confirmation of breakouts from key levels or chart patterns. The "Analysis Up V Dn" feature can help identify instances where all four price components simultaneously confirm a breakout, indicating a potentially significant move in the market.
Trend Reversals: The "Analysis High V Low" and "Analysis Open V Close" features can provide insights into potential trend reversals. For example, if there are more higher highs than higher lows, it may indicate a weakening trend, potentially signaling a reversal or a correction.
RSI Momentum Trend ScreenerIntroducing The RSI Momentum Trend Screener, to have the ability to scan 40 symbols at once
The screener is based on RSI Momentum Trend Indicator
It will show Positive Or Negative based on the symbol condition.
You can change the values on the screener, symbols, activate/disable symbols and change table position and color
Order Block & Fractal Zones (OBFZ) Indicator.The "Order Block & Fractal Zones (OBFZ) Indicator." indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to identify and display key price levels on a chart. It utilizes the concept of Order Blocks and the Fractal Value Zone (FVG) to highlight potential support and resistance areas in the market.
The indicator marks bearish and bullish Order Blocks, which are significant price structures characterized by consecutive higher highs and higher lows for a bearish block, or consecutive lower lows and lower highs for a bullish block. These blocks suggest potential areas of market reversal.
Additionally, the indicator calculates and displays retracement and extension levels within each Order Block. These levels are derived from the previous highest and lowest values within a specified number of candles. The retracement levels include 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, while the extension levels include 138.2%, 150%, and 161.8%.
Furthermore, the Fractal Value Zone (FVG) is determined to identify the highest high and lowest low within the selected number of candles. The FVG helps identify areas of significant price action and potential breakout zones.
Overall, the "Order Block & Fractal Zones (OBFZ) Indicator." indicator assists traders in identifying potential support and resistance levels, as well as areas of market reversal or breakout. It can be used to make informed trading decisions based on key price levels within the observed price action.
Bitcoin Economics Adaptive MultipleBEAM (Bitcoin Economics Adaptive Multiple) is an indicator that assesses the valuation of Bitcoin by dividing the current price of Bitcoin by a moving average of past prices. Its purpose is to provide insights into whether Bitcoin is under or overvalued at any given time. The thresholds for the buy and sell zones in BEAM are adjustable, allowing users to customize the indicator based on their preferences and trading strategies.
BEAM categorizes Bitcoin's valuation into two distinct zones: the green buy zone and the red sell zone.
Green Buy Zone:
The green buy zone in BEAM indicates that Bitcoin is potentially undervalued. Traders and investors may interpret this zone as a favorable buying opportunity. The threshold for the buy zone can be adjusted to suit individual preferences or trading strategies.
Red Sell Zone:
The red sell zone in BEAM suggests that Bitcoin is potentially overvalued. Traders and investors may consider selling their Bitcoin holdings during this zone to secure profits or manage risk. The threshold for the sell zone is adjustable, allowing users to adapt the indicator based on their trading preferences.
Methodology:
BEAM calculates the indicator value using the following formula:
beam = math.log(close / ta.sma(close, math.min(count, 1400))) / 2.5
The calculation involves taking the natural logarithm of the ratio between the current price of Bitcoin and a simple moving average of past prices. The moving average period used is a minimum of the specified count or 1400, providing a suitable historical reference for valuation assessment.
The resulting value of BEAM provides a standardized measure that can be compared across different time periods. By adjusting the thresholds for the buy and sell zones, users can customize BEAM to their preferred levels of undervaluation and overvaluation.
Utility:
BEAM serves as a tool for investors in the Bitcoin market, offering insights into Bitcoin's valuation and potential buying or selling opportunities. By monitoring BEAM, market participants can gauge whether Bitcoin is potentially undervalued or overvalued, helping them make informed decisions regarding their Bitcoin positions.
It is important to note that BEAM should be used in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools to validate signals and avoid relying solely on this indicator for trading decisions. Additionally, traders and investors are encouraged to adjust the threshold values based on their specific trading strategies, risk tolerance, and market conditions.
Credit: The BEAM (Bitcoin Economics Adaptive Multiple) indicator was originally developed by BitcoinEcon
Cycles AnalysisI strongly believe in cycles, so I wanted to create something that would give a visual representation of bull/bear markets and give a prediction based on the previous data. It's up to you how to decide what is a bull/bear cycle. There is no single rule for all assets because 20% drop in SP500 starts a bear market in traditional markets, while 35% drop for Bitcoin is a Tuesday. You have two options on how to decide when markets turn: either by a % change (traditional definition) or if there is no new high/low after X days. A softer version to show periods of no new highs/lows is to use the Stagnation option. Stagnation periods hava the same logic as the cycle change by X days: if there is no new high/low then we treat this period as a stagnation. The difference is that stagnation periods do not change cycle directions and do not participate in calculations.
The script also draws a possible "predictions" zone where the current cycle might end up. There is no magic here, it just takes previous cycles' size to draw the possible boundaries. If you decide to use percentiles then the box area will be taken from the percentiles calculations, otherwise it will come from the full data. "x" in the predictions zone represents a target mean (average) value, "o" represents a target median value.
A few things to keep in mind:
- this script is not supposed to be used in trading. It was created for analysis. It repaints. And when I say "it repaints" - it might like repaint the last 6 months of data if a new low comes and we are in a stagnation period (aka not a financial advice).
- it doesn't work with replays as it does calculations only once on the last candle.
- you need at least 3 periods to be able to calculate percentiles. And after this it will remove at least 1 period on each side. Which means that 90 percentile will not be a real 90 percentile until you have enough periods for it to be (20 in this specific case).
- it assumes that a year = 360 days, and a month = 30 days. So the duration presentation might not be exact, until you move to the day level.
- I had macro analysis in mind when I created the script, but nothing stops you from using it in a 1m time frame for BTC. Just change the time duration presentation.
- the last period is not finished, so it doesn't participate in calculations.
Simple Grid Lines VisualizerAbout Grid Bots
A grid bot is a type of trading bot or algorithm that is designed to automatically execute trades within a predefined price range or grid. It is commonly used in markets that exhibit ranging or sideways movement, where prices tend to fluctuate within a specific range without a clear trend.
The grid bot strategy involves placing a series of buy and sell orders at regular intervals within the predefined price range or grid. The bot essentially creates a grid of orders, hence the name. When the price reaches one of these levels, the bot will execute the corresponding trade. For example, if the price reaches a predefined lower level, the bot will buy, and if it reaches a predefined upper level, it will sell.
The purpose of the grid bot strategy is to take advantage of the price oscillations within the range. As the price moves up and down, the bot aims to generate profits by buying at the lower end of the range and selling at the higher end. By repeatedly buying and selling at these predetermined levels, the bot attempts to capture gains from the price fluctuations.
About this Script
Simple Grid Lines Visualizer is designed to assist traders in visualizing and implementing automated price grids on their charts. With just a few inputs, this script generates gridlines based on your specified top price, bottom price, and the number of grids or profit per grid.
How it Works:
Specify Top and Bottom Prices: Start by setting the top and bottom prices that define the range within which the gridlines will be generated. These prices can be based on support and resistance levels, historical data, or any other factors you consider relevant to your analysis.
Determine Grid Parameters: Choose either the number of grids or profit per grid, depending on your preference and trading strategy. If you select the number of grids, the script will evenly distribute the gridlines within the specified price range. Alternatively, if you opt for profit per grid, the script will calculate the price increment required to achieve your desired profit level per grid.
Note that when choosing Profit per Grid , an approximation usually is performed, as all grid lines must be evenly distributed. To achieve that, the script computes the grid distance using the mean price between top and bottom, then computes how many of those complete distances may enter the entire range, and lastly, creates a grid with evenly distributed distances as close as possible to the previously computed.
Customize Styling and Display: Adjust the line color, line style, transparency, and other visual aspects to ensure clear visibility on your charts.
Analyze and Trade: Once the gridlines are plotted on your chart, carefully observe how the market interacts with them. The gridlines can act as reference points for potential support and resistance levels, as well as simple buy/sell orders for a trading bot.
Try to find gridlines that intersect prices as frequently as possible from one to another.
A grid with too many lines will make lots of potential trades, but the amount traded will be minimal (as the total amount invested is divided over the number of grids).
A grid with too few lines will make lots of profits with each trade, but the trades will be less likely to occur (depending on the top/bottom distance).
This tool aims to help visually which grid parameters seem to optimize this problem.
Future versions may include automatic profit computation.
Bitcoin Limited Growth ModelThe Bitcoin Limeted Growth is a model proposed by QuantMario that offers an alternative approach to estimating Bitcoin's price based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio. This model takes into account the limitations of the traditional S2F model and introduces refinements to enhance its analysis.
The S2F model is commonly used to analyze Bitcoin's price by considering the scarcity of the asset, measured by the stock (existing supply) relative to the flow (new supply). However, the LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula recognizes the need for improvements and presents an updated perspective on Bitcoin's price dynamics.
Invalidation of the Normal S2F Model:
The normal S2F model has faced criticisms and challenges. One of the limitations is its assumption of a linear relationship between the S2F ratio and Bitcoin's price, overlooking potential nonlinearities and other market dynamics. Additionally, the normal S2F model does not account for external influences, such as market sentiment, regulatory developments, and technological advancements, which can significantly impact Bitcoin's price.
Addressing the Issues:
The LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula introduces refinements to address the limitations of the traditional S2F model. These refinements aim to provide a more comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's price dynamics:
Nonlinearity: The LGS-S2F model recognizes that the relationship between the S2F ratio and Bitcoin's price may not be linear. It incorporates a logistic growth function that considers the diminishing returns of scarcity and the saturation of market demand.
Data Analysis: The LGS-S2F model employs statistical analysis and data-driven techniques to validate its predictions. It leverages historical data and econometric modeling to support its analysis of Bitcoin's price.
Utility:
The LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula offers insights for traders and investors in the cryptocurrency market. By incorporating a more refined approach to analyzing Bitcoin's price, this model provides an alternative perspective. It allows market participants to consider various factors beyond the S2F ratio alone, potentially aiding in their decision-making processes.
Key Features:
Adjustable Coefficients
Sigma calculation methods: Normal or Stdev
Credit:
The LGS-S2F Bitcoin Price Formula was developed by QuantMario, who has contributed to the field of cryptocurrency analysis through their research and modeling efforts.
TimeLy Moving Average - TMAHello traders, I'm Only Fibonacci.
With this indicator, you will see the averages according to the hourly, weekly and monthly price movements in many periods on the chart.
This will show you the moving average values of the price over different periods in a progressive manner on the chart that is open to you.
Options and Usage
To see the hourly average, your chart's time range must be less than or equal to 60 minutes, otherwise it will produce a NaN value.
In order to see the daily average, your chart must be open for any minute period or (even if the second is open, it must be greater than 6 seconds). Otherwise, it does not produce any value.
Your chart must be larger than the second chart to see the weekly average. In other words, you can see the weekly average with at least 1 minute chart open.
In order to see the monthly average, your chart time interval must be above 10 minutes, otherwise you will not be able to see data again.
Settings
You choose the moving average type and the time interval value you want to see from the indicator settings.
You can also select a source for moving averages.
Enjoy it, you can make improvements on it.
Please do not forget to comment for various bug reports.
US Inversions & RecessionsUnderstand when the US yield curve inverted and when recessions took place. Select from Federal Funds Rate, 3 month yield, 2 year yield and 10 year yield.
Default ratio = Federal Funds Rate / 10 year yield
When line goes from white to red = inversion
When line goes from red to white = un-inversion
Yellow shading shows times when the rates are inverted.
Blue shading shows when recessions officially occurred.
Perp/Spot % SpreadTo be used on BINANCE USDT PERPETUAL charts.
Automatically pulls the equivalent Binance Spot pair and plots the Spread of the Close in % terms( Value of 1 means 1% difference from Perp price)
-Positive value means Spot is trading x% ABOVE the PERP
-Negative value means Spot is trading x% UNDER the PERP
Super PivotsThis is Super Pivots !!
This indicator can do the following:
Display Pivots for all time frames on the chart.
Display Pivots for shorter time frames (such as 1-hour timeframe).
Display Pivots for the market.
