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Moving RegressionMoving Regression is a generalization of moving average and polynomial regression. The procedure approximates a specified number of prior data points with a polynomial function of a user-defined degree. Then, polynomial interpolation of the last data point is used to construct a Moving Regression time series. Application: Moving Regression allows one to smooth noise on the analyzed chart, assess momentum, confirm trends, and establish areas of support and resistance. In addition, it can be used as a simple stand-alone forecasting method to identify trend direction and trend​ reversal points. When the local polynomial is predicted to move up in the next time step, the color of the Moving Regression curve will be green. Otherwise, the color of the curve is red. This function is (de)activated using the Predict Trend Direction flag. Selecting the ​model parameters: The effects of the moving window Length and the Local Polynomial Degree are confounded. This allows for​ finding the optimal trade-off between noise (variance) and lag (bias). Higher Length and lower Polynomial Degree (such as 1, i.e. linear), will result in "smoother" time series but at the cost of greater lag. Increasing the Polynomial​ Degree to, for example, 2 (squared) while maintaining the Length will diminish the lag and thus compromise the noise-lag tradeoff. Relation to other methods: When the degree of the local polynomial is set to 0 (i.e., fitting data to a constant level), the Moving Regression time series exactly matches the Simple Moving Average of the same length.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
by tbiktag
18
Quadratic RegressionFit a quadratic polynomial (parabola) to the last length data points by minimizing the sum of squares between the data and the fitted results. The script can extrapolate the results in the future and can also display the R-squared of the model. Note that this script is subject to some limitations (more in the "Notes" section). Settings Length : Number of data points to use as input. Offset : Determine the number of past fitted values to be displayed, if 0 only the extrapolated values are displayed, if 55 only the past fitted values are displayed. Src : Input data of the indicator Show R2 : Determine if the value of the R-squared must be displayed, by default true. Usage When the underlying trend in the price is not linear, we might use more advanced models to estimate it, this is where using a higher-degree regression model might be required, as such a quadratic model (second-degree) is appropriate when the underlying trend is parabolic. Here we can see that the quadratic regression (in blue) offer a better fit than a linear one. Another advantage of the quadratic regression is that a linear one will always have the same direction, that's not the case with the quadratic regression and as such, it is possible to forecast reversals. Above a linear regression (in red) and two quadratic regression (in blue) with both length = 54. Note that for the sake of clarity, the above image uses a quadratic regression to show all the past fitted values and another one to show all the forecasted values. The R-Squared is also extremely useful when it comes to measuring the accuracy of the model, with values closer to 1 indicating that the model is appropriate, and thus suggesting that the underlying trend in the price is parabolic. The R-squared can also measure the strength of the trend. Notes The script uses the function line.new , as such only a maximum of 54 observations are displayed, getting more observations can be done by using an additional quadratic regression like we did in the previous section. Another thing is that line.new use xloc.bar_time , as such it is possible to observe some errors with the displayed results of the indicator, such as: This will happen when applying the indicator to symbols with session breaks, I apologize for this inconvenience and I'll try to find solutions. Note however that the indicator will work perfectly on cryptos. Summary That's an indicator I really wanted to make, even if it is important to note that such models are rarely useful in stock markets, however it is more than possible to create a quadratic regression (with severe limitations) with pinescript. Today I turn 21, while I should be celebrating I still wanted to share something with the community, it's also some kind of present to myself that tells me that I am a bit better at using pinescript than last year, and I am glad I could progress (instead of regress, regression , got it?). Thx a lot for reading!
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
by alexgrover
81
Indicator: Weight Of Middle [xQT5]This is my original indicator that was inspired by "Mayer Multiple" and "Chande Forecast Oscillator" (CFO). I decided to search truth of trend power with SMA and LinReg and found it in a somewhere of the middle. Also, I added a limit area, where you need to keep a more attention, because it can show a potential reversal. You can change parametrs with a your own look. One more signal for indicator: - If "WOM" is above "1" - it's a bullish direction; - If "WOM" is below "1" - it's a bearish direction. Enjoy it!
Pine Script™ indicator
by xQT5
4
Fancy Triple Moving Averages [BigBitsIO]This script is for three moving averages with as many features as I can possibly fit into a single moving average. Features: - Three moving averages (MA1, MA2, MA3). - Standard MA inputs. - MA type. - MA period. - MA price. - MA resolution (time frame). - Visibility toggle. - MA Candle Type - Fancy MA inputs. - Toggle to show only candles included in the MA calculation ("Highlight inclusion") or display entire MA history. - Toggle to show a ghost trail when Highlight inclusion is toggled on. Displays a shaded version of past MA history before the inclusion period (as seen on snapshot). - Toggle to show forecast values for the MA. - Other inputs related to forecasting: - Forecast bias. (Neutral forecasts MA if the current price remains the same.) - Forecast period. - Forecast magnitude. *** DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB. ***
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
by BigBitsIO
12
Grand Trend Forecasting - A Simple And Original Approach Today we'll link time series forecasting with signal processing in order to provide an original and funny trend forecasting method, the post share lot of information, if you just want to see how to use the indicator then go to the section "Using The Indicator". Time series forecasting is an area dealing with the prediction of future values of a series by using a specific model, the model is the main tool that is used for forecasting, and is often an expression based on a set of predictor terms and parameters, for example the linear regression (model) is a 1st order polynomial (expression) using 2 parameters and a predictor variable ax + b . Today we won't be using the linear regression nor the LSMA. In time series analysis we can describe the time series with a model, in the case of the closing price a simple model could be as follows : Price = Trend + Cycles + Noise The variables of the model are the components, such model is additive since we add the component with each others, we should be familiar with each components of the model, the trend represent a simple long term variation of high amplitude, the cycles are periodic fluctuations centered around 0 of varying period and amplitude, the noise component represent shorter term irregular variations with mean 0. As a trader we are mostly interested by the cycles and the trend, altho the cycles are relatively more technical to trade and can constitute parasitic fluctuations (think about retracements in a trend affecting your trend indicator, causing potential false signals). If you are curious, in signal processing combining components has a specific name, "synthesis" , here we are dealing with additive synthesis, other type of synthesis are more specific to audio processing and are relatively more complex, but could be used in technical analysis. So what to do with our components ? If we want to trade the trend, we should estimate right ? Estimating the trend component involve removing the cycle and noise component from the price, if you have read stuff about filters you should know where i'am going, yep, we should use filters, in the case of keeping the trend we can use a simple moving average of relatively high period, and here we go. However the lag problem, which is recurrent, come back again, we end up with information easier to interpret (here the trend, which is a simple fluctuation such as a line or other smooth curve) at the cost of decision timing, that is unfortunate but as i said the information, here the moving average output, is relatively simple, and could be easily forecasted right ? If you plot a moving average of high period it would be easier for you to forecast its future values. And thats what we aim to do today, provide an estimate of the trend that should be easy to forecast, and should fit to the price relatively well in order to produce forecast that could determine the position of future closing prices observations. Estimating And Forecasting The Trend The parameter of the indicator dealing with the estimation of the trend is length , with higher values of length attenuating the cycle and noise component in the price, note however that high values of length can return a really long term trend unlike a simple moving average, so a small value of length, 14 for example can still produce relatively correct estimate of trend. here length = 14. The rough estimate of the trend is t in the code, and is an IIR filter, that is, it is based on recursion. Now i'll pass on the filter design explanation but in short, weights are constants, with higher weights allocated to the previous length values of the filter, you can see on the code that the first part of t is similar to an exponential moving average with : t(n) = 0.9t(n-length) + 0.1*Price However while the EMA only use the precedent value for the recursion, here we use the precedent length value, this would just output a noisy and really slow output, therefore in order to create a better fit we add : 0.9*(t(n-length) - t(n-2length)) , and this create the rough trend estimate that you can see in blue. On the parameters, 0.9 is used since it gives the best estimate in my opinion, higher values would create more periodic output and lower values would just create a rougher output. The blue line still contain a residual of the cycle/noise component, this is why it is smoothed with a simple moving average of period length. If you are curious, a filter estimating the trend but still containing noisy fluctuations is called "Notch" filter, such filter would depending on the cutoff remove/attenuate mid term cyclic fluctuations while preserving the trend and the noise, its the opposite of a bandpass filter. In order to forecast values, we simply sum our trend estimate with the trend estimate change with period equal to the forecasting horizon period, this is a really really simple forecasting method, but it can produce decent results, it can also allows the forecast to start from the last point of the trend estimate. Using The Indicator We explained the length parameter in the precedent section, src is the input series which the trend is estimated, forecast determine the forecasting horizon, recommend values for forecast should be equal to length, length/2 or length*2, altho i strongly recommend length. here length and forecast are both equal to 14 . The corrective parameter affect the trend estimate, it reduce the overshoot and can led to a curve that might fit better to the price. The indicator with the non corrective version above, and the corrective one below. The source parameter determine the source of the forecast, when "Noisy" is selected the source is the blue line, and produce a noisy forecast, when "Smooth" is selected the source is the moving average of t , this create a smoother forecast. The width interval control...the width of the intervals, they can be seen above and under the forecast plot, they are constructed by adding/subtracting the forecast with the forecast moving average absolute error with respect to the price. Prediction intervals are often associated with a probability (determining the probability of future values being between the interval) here we can't determine such probability with accuracy, this require (i think) an analysis of the forecasting distribution as well as assumptions on the distribution of the forecasting error. Finally it is possible to see historical forecasts, that is, forecasts previously generated by checking the "Show Historical Forecasts" option. Examples Good forecasts mostly occur when the price is close to the trend estimate, this include the following highlighted periods on AMD 15TF with default settings : We can see the same thing at the end of EURUSD : However we can't always obtain suitable fits, here it is isn't sufficient on BTCUSD : We can see wide intervals, we could change length or use the corrective option to get better results, another option is to use a log scale. We will end the examples with the log SPX, who posses a linear trend, so for example a linear model such as a linear regression would be really adapted, lets see how the indicator perform : Not a great fit, we could try to use an higher length value and use "Smooth" : Most recent fits are quite decent. Conclusions A forecasting indicator has been presented in this post. The indicator use an original approach toward estimating the trend component in the closing price. Of course i should have given statistics related to the forecasting error, however such analysis is worth doing with better methods and in more advanced environment allowing for optimization. But we have learned some stuff related to signal processing as well as time series analysis, seeing a time series as the sum of various components is really helpful when it comes to make sense of chaotic and noisy series and is a basic topic in time series analysis. You can see that in this new year i work harder on the visual of my indicators without trying to fall in the label addict trap, something that i wasn't really doing before, let me know what do you think of it. Thanks for reading !
Pine Script™ indicator
by alexgrover
25
ANN Next Coming Candlestick Forecast SPX 1D v1.0WARNING: Experimental and incomplete. Script is open to development and will be developed. This is just version 1.0 STRUCTURE This script is trained according to the open, close, high and low values ​​of the bars. It is tried to predict the future values ​​of opening, closing, high and low values. A few simple codes were used to correlate expectation with current values. (You can see between line 129 - 159 ) Therefore, they are all individually trained. You can see in functions. The average training error of each variable is less than 0.011. NOTE : This script is designed for experimental use on S & P 500 and connected instruments only on 1-day bars. The Plotcandle function is inspired by the following script of alexgrover : Since we estimate the next values, our error rates should be much lower for all candlestick values. This is just first version to show logic. I will continue to look for other variables to reach average error = 0.001 - 0.005 for each candlestick status. Feel free to use and improve , this is open-source. Best regards.
Pine Script™ indicator
by Noldo
5
Fancy Moving Average [BigBitsIO]This script is for a single moving average with as many features as I can possibly fit into a single moving average. If you can think of more, or have questions regarding this script, please message me or contact me via social media. Features: - A single moving average (MA). - Standard MA inputs. - MA type. - MA period. - MA price. - MA resolution (time frame). - Visibility toggle. - Fancy MA inputs. - Toggle to show only candles included in the MA calculation ("Highlight inclusion") or display entire MA history. - Toggle to show a ghost trail when Highlight inclusion is toggled on. Displays a shaded version of past MA history before the inclusion period (as seen on snapshot). - Toggle to show forecast values for the MA. - Other inputs related to forecasting: - Forecast bias. (Neutral forecasts MA if the current price remains the same.) - Forecast period. - Forecast magnitude. *** DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB. ***
Pine Script™ indicator
by BigBitsIO
3
Quadratic Least Squares Moving Average - Smoothing + Forecast Introduction Technical analysis make often uses of classical statistical procedures, one of them being regression analysis, and since fitting polynomial functions that minimize the sum of squares can be achieved with the use of the mean, variance, covariance...etc, technical analyst only needed to replace the mean in all those calculations with a moving average, we then end up with a low lag filter called least squares moving average (lsma) . The least squares moving average could be classified as a rolling linear regression, altho this sound really bad it is useful to understand the relationship of both methods, both have the same form, that is ax + b , where a and b are coefficients of the model. However in a simple linear regression a and b are constant, while the lsma use variables instead. In a simple lsma we model the relationship of the closing price (dependent variable) with a linear sequence (independent variable), therefore x = 1,2,3,4..etc. However we can use polynomial of higher degrees to model such relationship, this is required if we want more reactivity. Therefore we can use a quadratic form, that is ax^2 + bx + c , where a,b and c are variables. This is the quadratic least squares moving average (qlsma), a not so official term, but we'll stick with it because it still represent the aim of the filter quite well. In this indicator i make the calculations of the qlsma less troublesome, therefore one might understand how it would work, note that in general the coefficients of a polynomial regression model are found using matrix calculus. The Indicator A qlsma, unlike the classic lsma, will fit better to the price and will be more reactive, this is the advantage of using an higher degrees for its calculation, we can model more complex relationship. lsma in green, qlsma in red, with both length = 200 However the over/under shoots are greater, i'll explain why in the next sections, but this is one of the drawbacks of using higher degrees. The indicator allow to forecast future values, the ahead period of the forecast is determined by the forecast setting. The value for this setting should be lower than length, else the forecasts can easily over/under shoot which heavily damage the forecast. In order to get a view on how well the forecast is performing you can check the option "Show past predicted values". Of course understanding the logic behind the forecast is important, in short regressions models best fit a certain curve to the data, this curve can be a line (linear regression), a parabola (quadratic regression) and so on, the type of curve is determined by the degree of the polynomial used, here 2, which is a parabola. Lets use a linear regression model as example : ax + b where x is a linear sequence 1,2,3...and a/b are constants. Our goal is to find the values for a and b that minimize the sum of squares of the line with the dependent variable y, here the closing price, so our hypothesis is that : closing price = ax + b + ε where ε is white noise, a component that the model couldn't forecast. The forecast of the closing price 14 step ahead would be equal to : closing price 14 step aheads = a(x+14) + b Since x is a linear sequence we only need to sum it with the forecasting horizon period, the same is done here with : a*(n+forecast)^2 + b*(n + forecast) + c Note that the forecast proposed in the indicator is more for teaching purpose that anything else, this indicator can't possibly forecast future values, even on a meh rate. Low lag filters have been used to provide noise free crosses with slow moving average, a bad practice in my opinion due to the ability low lag filters have to overshoot/undershoot, more interesting use cases might be to use the qlsma as input for other indicators. On The Code Some of you might know that i posted a "quadratic regression" indicator long ago, the original calculations was coming from a forum, but because the calculation was ugly as hell as well as extra inefficient (dogfood level) i had to do something about it, the name was also terribly misleading. We can see in the code that we make heavy use of the variance and covariance, both estimated with : VAR(x) = SMA(x^2) - SMA(x)^2 COV(x,y) = SMA(xy) - SMA(x)SMA(y) Those elements are then combined, we can easily recognize the intercept element c , who don't change much from the classical lsma. As Digital Filter The frequency response of the qlsma is similar to the one of the lsma, those filters amplify certain frequencies in the passband, and have ripples in the stop band. There is something interesting about those filters, first using higher degrees allow to greater boost of the frequencies in the passband, which result in greater over/under shoots. Another funny thing is that the peak/valley of the ripples is equal the peak or valley in the ripples of another lsma of different degree. The transient response of those filters, that is impulse response, step response...etc is related to the degree of the polynomial used, therefore lets denote a lsma of degree p : lsma(p) , the impulse response of lsma(p) is a polynomial of degree p, and the step response is simple a polynomial of order p+1. This is why it was more interesting to estimate the qlsma using convolution, however we can no longer forecast future values. Conclusion I proposed a more usable quadratic least squares moving average, with more options, as well as a cleaner and more efficient code. The process of shrinking the original code is made easier when you know about the estimations of both variance and covariance. I hope the proposed indicator/calculation is useful. Thx for reading !
Pine Script™ indicator
by alexgrover
33
Scripting Tutorial 9 - TManyMA Strategy - Long Market Order OnlyThis script is for a triple moving average strategy where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources, lookback periods and resolutions. Features: - 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources, resolutions and the ability to disable each individually - Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA ) - Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA. - Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market. - To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked to my profile. - Ribbons added and on by default. Optional setting to disable the ribbons. 5 ribbons between MA1 and MA2 and another 5 between MA2 and MA3. - Ribbons are alpha-color coded based on their relation to their default MAs. - Ribbons are only visible between MAs if the MAs being compared share the same Type, Resolution, and Source because there is no way to consolidate those three in a simple manner. - Ribbon values are calculated based on calculated MA Periods between the MAs. - Converted the existing study into a strategy - Strategy only enters long positions with a market order when MA crossovers occur - Strategy exits positions when crossunders occur - Trades 100% of the equity with one order/position by default - Ability to disable trading certain crosses with input checks This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions. *** PLEASE NOTE - THIS STRATEGY IS MEANT FOR LEARNING PURPOSES. DEPENDING ON IT'S CONFIGURATION IT MAY OR MAY NOT BE USEFUL FOR ACTUAL TRADING. THE STRATEGY IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ***
Pine Script™ strategy
by BigBitsIO
Scripting Tutorial 8 - Triple Many Moving Averages RibbonsThis script is for a triple moving average indicator where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources, lookback periods and resolutions. Features: - 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources, resolutions and the ability to disable each individually - Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA ) - Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA. - Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market. - To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked to my profile. - Ribbons added and on by default. Optional setting to disable the ribbons. 5 ribbons between MA1 and MA2 and another 5 between MA2 and MA3. - Ribbons are alpha-color coded based on their relation to their default MAs. - Ribbons are only visible between MAs if the MAs being compared share the same Type, Resolution, and Source because there is no way to consolidate those three in a simple manner. - Ribbon values are calculated based on calculated MA Periods between the MAs. This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
Pine Script™ indicator
by BigBitsIO
InfoPanel Divergence IndicatorThis panel spots divergences of some well knonw indicators. It may be usefull because you have all indicators in one panel only. Also, you can check on chart which indicator gives better results of each pair on stock or index or crypto. TO DO: to add custom indicators. thanks to: RicardoSantos for his script of panel coding Tradingview scripts Other members of TV community (I cannot remember the source and inspiration of all snipets) Please use comment section for any feedback.
Pine Script™ indicator
by 03.freeman
2
Scripting Tutorial 6 - Triple Many Moving Averages ForecastingThis script is for a triple moving average indicator where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources and lookback periods. Features: - 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources and ability to disable each individually - Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA ) - Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA. - Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market. - To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked on my profile. This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
Pine Script™ indicator
by BigBitsIO
6
Forecasting - Drift MethodIntroduction Nothing fancy in terms of code, take this post as an educational post where i provide information rather than an useful tool. Time-Series Forecasting And The Drift Method In time-series analysis one can use many many forecasting methods, some share similarities but they can all by classified in groups and sub-groups, the drift method is a forecasting method that unlike averages/naive methods does not have a constant (flat) forecast, instead the drift method can increase or decrease over time, this is why its a great method when it comes to forecasting linear trends. Basically a drift forecast is like a linear extrapolation, first you take the first and last point of your data and draw a line between those points, extend this line into the future and you have a forecast, thats pretty much it. One of the advantage of this method is first its simplicity, everyone could do it by hand without any mathematical calculations, then its ability to be non-conservative, conservative methods involve methods that fit the data very well such as linear/non-linear regression that best fit a curve to the data using the method of least-squares, those methods take into consideration all the data points, however the drift method only care about the first and last point. Understanding Bias And Variance In order to follow with the ability of methods to be non-conservative i want to introduce the concept of bias and variance, which are essentials in time-series analysis and machine learning. First lets talk about training a model, when forecasting a time-series we can divide our data set in two, the first part being the training set and the second one the testing set. In the training set we fit a model to the training data, for example : We use 200 data points, we split this set in two sets, the first one is for training which is in blue, and the other one for testing which is in green. Basically the Bias is related to how well a forecasting model fit the training set, while the variance is related to how well the model fit the testing set. In our case we can see that the drift line does not fit the training set very well, it is then said to have high bias. If we check the testing set : We can see that it does not fit the testing set very well, so the model is said to have high variance. It can be better to talk of bias and variance when using regression, but i think you get it. This is an important concept in machine learning, you'll often see the term "overfitting" which relate to a model fitting the training set really well, those models have a low to no bias, however when it comes to testing they don't fit well at all, they have high variance. Conclusion On The Drift Method The drift method is good at forecasting linear trends, and thats all...you see, when forecasting financial data you need models that are able to capture the complexity of the price structure as well as being robust to noise and outliers, the drift method isn't able to capture such complexity, its not a super smart method, same goes for linear regression. This is why more peoples are switching to more advanced models such a neural networks that can sometimes capture such complexity and return decent results. So this method might not be the best but if you like lines then here you go.
Pine Script™ indicator
by alexgrover
18
Forecast Oscillator & Point of ForceThis is a scaled version of the Forecast Oscillator, paired with a Point of Force Indicator, my modification of an indicator, whose original name and developer happened to be missing on my notes, so my regards to the author). Point of force is a spot from where price action will dynamically evolve in the same direction or soon reverse and pursue that reversed path. It may be an indication of a turning point or entry point to consider going long/short and should be use together with a background oscillator showing a prevailing local trend.
Pine Script™ indicator
by capissimo
3