123 Reversal Trading StrategyThe 123 Reversal Trading Strategy is a technical analysis approach that seeks to identify potential reversal points in the market by analyzing price patterns. This Pine Script™ code implements a version of this strategy, and here’s a detailed description:
Strategy Overview
Objective: The strategy aims to identify bullish reversal patterns using the 123 pattern and manage trades with a specified holding period and a 20-day moving average as an additional exit condition.
Key Components:
Holding Period: The number of days to hold a trade is adjustable, with the default set to 7 days.
Moving Average: A 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is used to determine an exitcondition based on the price crossing this average.
Pattern Recognition:
Condition 1: The low of the current day must be lower than the low of the previous day.
Condition 2: The low of the previous day must be lower than the low from three days ago.
Condition 3: The low two days ago must be lower than the low from four days ago.
Condition 4: The high two days ago must be lower than the high three days ago.
Entry Condition: All four conditions must be met for a buy signal.
Exit Condition: The position is closed either after the specified holding period or when the price reaches or exceeds the 200-day moving average.
Relevant Literature
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (1934). Security Analysis. This classic work introduces fundamental analysis and technical analysis principles which are foundational to understanding patterns like the 123 reversal.
Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Murphy provides an extensive overview of technical indicators and chart patterns, including reversal patterns similar to the 123 pattern.
Elder, A. (1993). Trading for a Living. Elder discusses various trading strategies and technical analysis techniques that complement the understanding of reversal patterns and their application in trading.
Risks and Considerations
Pattern Reliability: The 123 reversal pattern, like many technical patterns, is not foolproof. It can generate false signals, especially in volatile or trending markets. This may lead to losses if the pattern does not play out as expected.
Market Conditions: The strategy may perform differently under various market conditions. In strongly trending markets, reversal patterns might not be as reliable.
Lagging Indicators: The use of the 200-day moving average as an exit condition can be considered a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to price movements with a delay, which might result in late exits and missed profit opportunities.
Holding Period: The fixed holding period of 7 days may not be optimal for all market conditions or stocks. It is essential to adjust the holding period based on market dynamics and individual stock behavior.
Overfitting: The parameters used (like the number of days and moving average length) are set based on historical data. Overfitting can occur if these parameters are tailored too specifically to past data, leading to reduced performance in future scenarios.
Conclusion
The 123 Reversal Trading Strategy is designed to identify potential market reversals using specific conditions related to price lows and highs. While it offers a structured approach to trading, it is essential to be aware of its limitations and potential risks. As with any trading strategy, it should be tested thoroughly in various market conditions and adjusted according to the individual trading style and risk tolerance.
Harmonic Patterns
Wolfe Strategy [Trendoscope]Hello Everyone,
Wish you all Merry X-Mas and happy new year. Lets start 2023 with fresh new strategy built on Wolfe Indicator. Details of the indicator can be found here
🎲 Wolfe Concept
Wolfe concept is simple. Whenever a wedge is formed, draw a line joining pivot 1 and 4 as shown in the chart below:
For simplicity, we will only consider static value for Target and Stop. But, entry is done based on breaking the triangle. Revised strategy looks something like this:
🎲 Settings
Settings are simple and details of each are provided via tooltips.
Out of these, the most important one is minimum risk reward ratio. If you set lower risk reward threshold then losing few trades may generate more losses than more winning trades. Similarly higher value will filter out most of the trades and may not work efficiently. Default value set to 1 to make sure optimal risk reward is present before placing trade. Also make note that since the entry bar is always moving towards stop, as and when pattern progress, the RR will also increase. Hence, a pattern which is below RR threshold may become good to trade at certain point of time in future.
🎲 Strategy Parameters
Default strategy parameters are initialised via definition. Margins are set to 100 to disable leveraged trades. Appropriate values are chosen for other parameters. These can be altered based on individual strategy and trading plan.
As the strategy concentrates on the single pattern, number of trades generated are comparatively less. But, there is chance to increase the algorithm further to catch more such patterns on larger scale. Will try to work on them in next versions.
🎲 Pine Strategy limitations
Backtest can only be done on one direction as pine strategy cannot have both long and short open trades together. Hence, it is mandatory to chose either long/short trades in settings.
Since pyramiding is limited to 1, there is possibility of a pattern not generating trade even though the entry conditions are met. They are just based on pine limitations and not necessarily mean patterns are not good for placing trades.
Strategy Myth-Busting #20 - HalfTrend+HullButterfly - [MYN]#20 on the Myth-Busting bench, we are automating the " I Found Super Easy 1 Minute Scalping System And Backtest It 100 Times " strategy from " Jessy Trading " who claims 30.58% net profit over 100 trades in a couple of weeks with a 51% win rate and profit factor of 1.56 on EURUSD .
This one surprised us quite a bit. Despite the title of this strategy indicating this is on the 1 min timeframe, the author demonstrates the backtesting manually on the 5 minute timeframe. Given the simplicity of this strategy only incorporating a couple of indicators, it's robustness being able to be profitable in both low and high timeframes and on multiple symbols was quite refreshing.
The 3 settings which we need to pay most attention to here is the Hull Butterfly length, HalfTrend amplitude and the Max Number Of Bars Between Hull and HalfTrend Trigger. Depending on the timeframe and symbol, these settings greatly impact the performance outcomes of the strategy. I've listed a couple of these below.
And as always, If you know of or have a strategy you want to see myth-busted or just have an idea for one, please feel free to message me.
This strategy uses a combination of 3 open-source public indicators:
Hull Butterfly Oscillator by LuxAlgo
HalfTrend by Everget
Trading Rules
5 min candles but higher / lower candles work too.
Stop loss at swing high/low
Take Profit 1.5x the risk
Long
Hull Butterfly gives us green column, Wait for HalfTrend to present an up arrow and enter trade.
Short
Hull Butterfly gives us a red column , Wait for HalfTrend to present a down arrow and enter trade.
Alternative Trading Settings for different time frames
1 Minute Timeframe
Move the Hull Butterfly length from the default 11 to 9
Move the HalfTrend Amplitude from the default 2 to 1
Enabling ADX Filter with a 25 threshold
2 Hour Timeframe
Move the HalfTrend Amplitude from the default 2 to 1
Laddered Take Profits from 14.5% to 19% with an 8% SL
