Annualizer: New Indicator + CPI AnalysisThis indicator calculates the annualized month-over-month percent change of a cumulative index and plots it alongside the year-over-year percent change for comparison. It was developed for the purpose of analyzing the inflation rate of CPI indexes such as “CPIAUCSL.” It can also be used on M2 money supply and pretty much any cumulative index. It will not produce useful outputs on percent change indexes such as “USCCPI” because it performs percent change calculations which are already applied to those indexes.
This indicator takes data from the monthly chart, regardless of how often the data is reported or what the timeframe of the current chart is. Doing so allows it to work on all timeframes while displaying only monthly data outputs but limits it from recognizing data which might be released more often than once per month. This limitation should be suitable for macroeconomic data such as CPI and M2 money supply which are usually analyzed on a month-to-month basis.
If the ticker symbol is "M2SL" which is M2 money supply, annualized percent change is plotted in green, otherwise, it’s plotted in blue.
CPI analysis:
Upon deploying this indicator, it was observed that the year-over-year (YoY) inflation rate (red) is a lagging indicator of the annualized month-over-month (MoM) inflation rate (blue) and that it appears to almost be a moving average of it. A moving average plot was temporarily added for comparison to the YoY and it was found that the difference between the two plots is negligible and that for the purposes of high-level analysis of inflation, the two plots can be considered to be no different from one another. Below is a screenshot for demonstration. Notice how closely the white 12-month SMA of the annualized rate tracks the YoY rate.
For other indexes which may see more dramatic changes month-over-month such as M2 money supply, the difference between the two signals becomes more pronounced but they are still comparable. The conclusion is that the YoY inflation rate can be considered to be a 12-month simple moving average of the annualized MoM rate.
12-month SMA:
It’s easy to see and stands to reason that if the annualized MoM inflation rate (blue) remains where it has been for the previous 2 months YoY inflation (red) will begin falling and eventually reach similar levels due to its moving-average-like behavior. This will bring us back to the 2% YoY inflation target of the Fed within no more than 10 months. There may be a perception that deflation is required to bring prices back down to the purple channel of CPI to make prices pre-Covid "normal" again. We were headed in that direction in July with a slightly negative MoM CPI read. What may have freaked investors out about the August report (most recent as of this writing) is that the inflation rate, rather than continuing into negative deflationary territory, has bounced back into positive territory.
M2 money supply isn’t an integral part of this analysis, but it helps demonstrate the indicator. It can be observed that CPI growth lags M2 money supply growth which seems to have leveled off.
I’m not a macroeconomist so I’m probably missing some things, but I do not see a lagging indicator such as YoY inflation being at 8.25% while annualized MoM inflation is at 1.42% as something to freak out about as investors have seemingly done. I’m a stock market bear as of last week, but I do not feel this CPI analysis strongly supports a bearish thesis, nor is it bullish. Next month’s annualized MoM % change may begin to sway me one way or the other depending on what this chart looks like when it’s updated.
Inflation
CPI and PPIMarket tracker of the year-on-year (YoY) change in inflation (both PPI Finished Goods and CPI).
Useful for identifying the turns in market conditions, and therefore helps with anticipation of changes in monitory policy.
This metric can be used to inform about current market conditions and potential risk=reward outcomes in the future.
Inflation Adjusted Performance: Ticker/M2 money supplyPlots current ticker / M2 money supply, to give an idea of 'inflation adjusted performance'.
~In the above, see the last decade of bullish equities is not nearly as impressive as it seems when adjusted to account for the FED's money printing.
~Works on all timeframes/ assets; though M2 money supply is daily data release, so not meaningful to plot this on timeframe lower than daily.
~To display on same pane; comment-out line 6 and un-comment line 7; then save, remove and re-add indicator.
~Scale on the right is meaningless; this indicator is just to show/compare the shape of the charts.
Global Economic MonitorThis indicator shows multiple economic data such as inflation rate, GDP etc. of the countries below.
U.S.
Japan
EU
U.K.
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Switzerland
China
You can select 3 data at the same time so that you can compare data in single country or among multiple countries.
Available data:
Inflation Rate(YoY)
Inflation Rate(MoM)
Inflation Expectation
GDP
GDP Growth
Unemployment Rate
Retail Sales
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主要国の経済指標(インフレ率やGDPなど)を表示することのできるインジケーターです。
対象国/地域：
アメリカ
日本
EU
イギリス
オーストラリア
ニュージーランド
カナダ
スイス
中国
データは最大3つまで同時に表示することができます。
一つの国で複数指標を比較したり、同一指標を異なる国で比較する時に選択してください。
選択可能データ
インフレ率(対前年比)
インフレ率(対前月比)
期待インフレ率
GDP
GDP成長率
失業率
小売売上高
Quantity Theory of Money (Inflation Growth Rate)Quantity Theory of Money ( Inflation Growth Rate)
Equation:
%ΔM+%ΔV=%ΔP+%ΔY
M - Money Supply , V - Money Velocity , Y - Real GDP, P - Price
This script only takes into account money supply theory and does not account for increases/decreases in inflation due to energy costs. QTM Calculation is compared to USIRYY , USCCPI , and Sticky Price CPI . Flex_CPI and Flex_Core_CPI are not available in Trading View for comparison.
Simple Moving Average Default it set to 3 quarters for smoothing purposes. You can change this via the input window as you see fit.
Money Velocity(GDP/M2)V=GDP/M2
Major world economy's money supply velocity. Compare how each country's monetary policy has played out and current trajectory in comparison to others. The velocity of money is a measure of the number of times that the average unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a given time period. The concept relates the size of economic activity to a given money supply, and the speed of money exchange is one of the variables that determine inflation.
EFTENG: Inflation Price Forecast indicator
With this indicator, when you add monthly and annual positive inflation rates, the price of the parity is estimated according to inflation. You can enter inflation rates as either positive or negative. You can write positive inflation rates as they are, but when writing negative inflation rates, the rate must be preceded by a negative phrase. A (-) sign should be placed in front of the negative inflation rate. Their codes are open and anyone can develop these codes. In the use of indicators, it is useful to look at the monthly chart because inflation rates are given on a monthly basis. As a result of these data, you can see the most accurate results on the monthly chart. The green line shows the positive inflation, the red line the negative inflation, and the gray line shows the annual positive and negative inflation. You can arrange the colors and line formats according to your desire.
TR: Enflasyon Fiyat Tahmini indikatörü
Bu indikatör ile aylık, yıllık pozitif enflasyon oranları eklediğinizde paritenin fiyatını enflasyona göre fiyat tahminde bulunmaktadır. Enflasyon oranlarını isterseniz pozitif isterseniz negatif olarak giriş yapabilirsiniz. Pozitif enflasyon oranlarını olduğu gibi yazabilirsiniz ancak negatif enflasyon oranını yazarken oranın başında negatif ibaresi bulunmalıdır. Negatif enflasyon girişini oranın önüne (-) işareti konulmalıdır. Kodları açık ve herkes bu kodları geliştirebilir. İndikatör kullanımında ise Aylık grafikte bakmanızda fayda var çünkü enflasyon oranları aylık bazda verilmektedir. Bu veriler neticesinde en doğru sonuçları aylık grafikte görebilirisiniz. Yeşil çizgi pozitif enflasyonu kırmızı çizgi negatif enflasyonu gri çizgi yıllık pozitif ve negatif enflasyonu göstermektedir. Renkleri, çizgi biçimleri isteğinize göre düzenleyebilirsiniz.
Taylor RuleThe Taylor rule is a simple formula that John Taylor devised to guide policymakers. It calculates what the federal funds rate should be, as a function of the output gap and current inflation. Here, we measure the output gap as the difference between potential output and real GDP. Inflation is measured by changes in the CPI, and we use a target inflation rate of 2%. We also assume a steady-state real interest rate of 2%.
Fed Balance Sheet Growth Rate p.a.Plots the rate of change in the Fed Balance sheet.
Defaults to annual rate of change.
Option to plot the raw balance sheet data.
Inflation NationThis is a measure between current inflation and inflation if the velocity of money increased to 1.4 (pre-pandemic levels).
Inflation-Adjusted CandlesDeflates time series of historical open, close, high, low prices. This adjusts price data for inflation and removes the effect of price inflation.
inflation-adjusted price for period 't' = (price / cpi ) * 100
Historical CPI is pulled from Quandl.
gold price levels denominated in usd/gramsPlots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the indicator settings. Default values are:
75 gold grams
300 gold grams
500 gold grams
1000 gold grams
5000 gold grams
More context: The purchasing power of Bitcoin
Total Inflation ModelMeasure of the total economy wide inflation of the US Dollar.
Total Inflation = growth rate of money supply / economic output
True Inflation Compensator (USD)This script will draw your underlying ticker compensating for a truer USD inflation rate based on an average between the M2 money supply increase and the government's reported CPI. It only considers the last year of inflation by default, but you can set any amount of years in the options.
This is especially relevant given the current massive printing that is going on within the US economic system. If you look at the S&P500 the market has by no means completely recovered, but due to massive printing most do not realize this by just looking at the base chart. A similar concept applies to Bitcoin. Unfortunately due to today's economic climate one must compensate for printing to get a true analysis of how investments are doing.
Kaya RSI BASED INFLATION INDICATORUse your own risk.
This indicator aims look inflation of your emita according to the BTC and XAU. Also you can use Dxy too. The main idea of behind of this indicator is rsi. But not normal rsi :).
For example. If green(XAU) line upper then xau going to up better than BTC and your emita. If red line (BTC) is upper, thats mean buying BTC can be more profitably. Blue line (named Normal means this is your emita) is upper that mean your emita is can be more profitably than the others. You can think opposite for lower situations.
Be aware this is not mean percent rising or declining. This is just understanding for which of them (relatively) moving how according to the rsi.
Maybe it can using for positons too. But I didnt test it. So be carefull.
Best Regards.
Real Interest Rate DifferentialThe Real IRD is a simple indicator built for forex trades that need a long-term view and want to compare currencies in search of high yield. The indicated interest rate maturity is 2 years, since shorter maturities may not price central banks' monetary policy decisions.
Example:
- You need to do an analysis of the AUDUSD
- In the Interest Rate 1 field, we put the interest rate for the base currency, in this case the AUD
- In the Interest Rate 2 field, the interest rate of the other currency, in this case the USD
- In the CPI 1 field, inflation referring to base currency
- In the CPI 2 field, inflation for another currency
CPI Codes:
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_USA < USD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_EUR < EUR
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_JPN < JPY
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CHE < CHF
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_GBR < GBP
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CAN < CAD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_RUS < RUB
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_AUS < AUD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_NZL < NZD
Many Inflation RateThis is a assortment of countries' inflation rates, sourced by Quandl. The countries are represented by their ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes in the options, and at the moment include:
ARG, AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, EUR, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NZL, RUS, USA
Included is a correlation to the current chart and the selected inflation rate. The correlation compares the monthly moving averages of YOY inflation and the chart closes over a period of two years. At the moment this doesn't seem to be the most efficient method of correlation/comparison, should there be one to begin with.
More information:
www.ons.gov.uk
www.bls.gov
voxeu.org
en.wikipedia.org
See here for a different version:
US Inflation Rate [nb]This is the United States inflation rate, based on the total Consumer Price Index published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Option to toggle:
A line to display the inflation rate in December. It does not change until the next December.
What the color change to red is indicative of:
According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding inflation rate, "2% is a bae number to be around". This does not imply a strict 2% inflation for success and allows room for federal rate cuts should they be needed.
Although FOMC declared 2% to be "bae" in 2012, James Bullard, of federal banking fame, claims that started to become the norm in 1995. Therefore the inflation rate line will only turn red 1995 onwards, and serves as a friendly reminder that inflation has been over at or over 2% for more than one month.
Sources:
www.bls.gov
www.federalreserve.gov
www.stlouisfed.org
Portfolio and Risk Management: Gold Based Net Growth CoefficientHello, if our topic is stocks, whatever signal we get, we have to divide and reduce the risk.
Apart from the risk, we need inflation-free figures to detect a clear growth.
Gold is one of the most successful tools to beat inflation in this regard in the historical context.
When the economy is good, we have to beat both commodities and inflation.
For this purpose, I found it appropriate to develop a net growth factor free from gold growth.
Investors need several stocks with a high growth rate and as much risk-free as possible.
Personally, I think that the science of portfolio and risk management will last a lifetime and should continue.
I think this subject is a research and development subject.(R & D)
My research and publications on this matter will continue publicly.
I wish everyone a good day.
NOTE : You can determine the return in the time period you want to look back by adjusting the period in the rate you want from the menu.
The standard value is 200 days. (1 year)
Inflation Rate HistogramThis script is designed to show a histogram of the inflation rate, based on FRED's CPI data. It shows the yearly change in cpiaucsl. As of right now, this script only works correctly on the yearly timeframe (12M). I'm currently looking into a solution to make this script work on all time frames. This script can be useful for comparing growth to inflation, or just if you want to see how inflation was for a certain year. This script really puts the stagflation into perspective.
CPI-weighted USD/RUB exchange rate calculationProjected target for USDRUB calculated by inflation rates (consumer price indexes) is 110.
