Probability Weighted Moving AverageThe Probability Weighted Moving Average uses a log-normal (continuous) distribution to calculate the probabilities of a range of lengths MAs to assess their performances, and respectively assign weights to a mean of this range. This assumes that the values of the MAs (call it A) aren't normally distributed, but instead log(A) is normally distributed, which can be a fair assumption. In P(t, t+X) where X is the number of trades assessed, it assumes the probability is not dependent on t and independent of previous price.
For P(t, t+X), the higher the value of X, the more trades are assessed.
Range of lengths comes in slow (default) or fast. Faster MAs are not preferable and should be limited to HTFs.
The color code can be either weighted (where lighter shades of blue suggests faster values have more weight, and darker shades suggest slower values have more weight) or coded for bull/bear: green when bullish, red when bearish.
Lognormal
Free Log-Normal Bollinger Bands for CryptoBollinger Bands don't work on crypto currency, this is because crypto is so volatile it makes exponential growth a more obvious factor. Bollinger bands assume price will form a normal distribution around the mean which is WRONG, as prices increase in an exponential way, and the price will never fall below $0.
This is a bollinger band based around a log-normal distribution. Which is how prices actually behave.
Use this one instead. It's free.
GEOMETRIC STANDARD DEVIATION BANDS v1 by @XeL_ArjonaGEOMETRIC STANDARD DEVIATION BANDS
Ver.1 By Ricardo M Arjona @XeL_Arjona
DISCLAIMER:
The Following indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets.
The embedded code and ideas within this work are FREELY AND PUBLICLY available on the Web for NON LUCRATIVE ACTIVITIES and must remain as is.
WHAT'S THIS?
This IS NOT the wheel "Re-Invention"... This is exactly what the name says: A pair of Envelope Bands to measure "volatility", constructed at statistical relation from within price series and their Rolling back MEAN (Simple Moving Average). YES, What Mr. Bollinger did and put it's name to this simple, cleaver and popular formula.
This time, I took the time to make another simple mod, but seems to me to be quite functional in REAL VOLATILE assets like in the example chart: TO USE THEIR GEOMETRIC MODE!!
Cheers!
Any feedback or public modification(s) are quite welcome to the community....!
@XeL_Arjona
Apr 28 2016
