GKD-BT Optimizer SCS Backtest [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Optimizer SCS Backtest is a backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
█ Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Optimizer SCS Backtest
The Optimizer SCS Backtest is a Solo Confirmation Simple backtest that allows traders to test single GKD-C confirmation indicators across 10 varying inputs. The purpose of this backtest is to enable traders to optimize a GKD-C indicator given varying inputs.
The backtest module supports testing with 1 take profit and 1 stop loss. It also offers the option to limit testing to a specific date range, allowing simulated forward testing using historical data. This backtest module only includes standard long and short signals. Additionally, users can choose to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. Traders can also select a highlighting treshold for Total Percent Wins and Percent Profitable, and Profit Factor.
To use this indicator:
1. Import a GKD-C indicator "Input into NEW GKD-BT Optimizer Backtest Signals" into the GKD-C Indicator Signals dropdown
1. Import a GKD-C indicator "Input into NEW GKD-BT Optimizer Backtest Start" into the GKD-C Indicator Start dropdown
1. Import a GKD-C indicator "Input into NEW GKD-BT Optimizer Backtest Skip" into the GKD-C Indicator Skip dropdown
This backtest includes the following metrics:
1. Net profit: Overall profit or loss achieved.
2. Total Closed Trades: Total number of closed trades, both winning and losing.
3. Total Percent Wins: Total wins, whether long or short, for the selected time interval regardless of commissions and other profit-modifying addons.
4. Percent Profitable: Total wins, whether long or short, that are also profitable, taking commissions into account.
5. Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses, indicating how much money the strategy made for every unit of money it lost.
6. Average Profit per Trade: The average gain or loss per trade, calculated by dividing the net profit by the total number of closed trades.
7. Average Number of Bars in Trade: The average number of bars that elapsed during trades for all closed trades.
Summary of notable settings:
Input Tickers separated by commas: Allows the user to input tickers separated by commas, specifying the symbols or tickers of financial instruments used in the backtest. The tickers should follow the format "EXCHANGE:TICKER" (e.g., "NASDAQ:AAPL, NYSE:MSFT").
Import GKD-B Baseline: Imports the "GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline" indicator.
Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume: Imports the "GKD-V Volatility/Volume" indicator.
Import GKD-C Confirmation: Imports the "GKD-C Confirmation" indicator.
Import GKD-C Continuation: Imports the "GKD-C Continuation" indicator.
Initial Capital: Represents the starting account balance for the backtest, denominated in the base currency of the trading account.
Order Size: Determines the quantity of contracts traded in each trade.
Order Type: Specifies the type of order used in the backtest, either "Contracts" or "% Equity."
Commission: Represents the commission per order or transaction cost incurred in each trade.
**the backtest data rendered to the chart above uses $5 commission per trade and 10% equity per trade with $1 million initial capital. Each backtest result for each ticker assumes these same inputs. The results are NOT cumulative, they are separate and isolate per ticker and trading side, long or short**
█ Volatility Types included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Optimizer Full GKD Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Fisher Transofrm as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Coppock Curve
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Optimizer SCC Backtest
GKD-BT Optimizer SCS Backtest
GKD-BT Optimizer SCS Backtest
GKD-C GKD-BT Optimizer Full GKD Backtest
Loxx
GKD-C QQE of Polychromatic Momentum [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C QQE of Polychromatic Momentum is a confirmation module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
█ Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C QQE of Polychromatic Momentum
The Quantitative Qualitative Estimation (QQE) of Polychromatic Momentum is a trading strategy used in financial markets. This technical indicator is designed to gauge the momentum and trend of a particular asset's price over a specific period. It helps investors identify potential buying and selling opportunities based on the changes in price momentum.
The algorithm operates by calculating the weighted momentum of the price changes over time, where more recent changes have a higher weight. It then smooths this momentum using a type of moving average, reducing the impact of short-term fluctuations and focusing more on longer-term momentum trends.
Additionally, the algorithm maintains two distinct trend lines based on different speeds of price changes: a slow and a fast trend. These trends, coupled with the smoothed momentum, provide potential signals for investors.
When the smoothed momentum crosses the fast trend line, it could be seen as an indication that the price is picking up speed and might be a good time to buy. On the other hand, when the smoothed momentum crosses the slow trend line, it might be seen as a signal that the price momentum is slowing, indicating a potential selling opportunity.
In essence, the QQE of Polychromatic Momentum is a comprehensive tool that combines weighted momentum calculation, trend analysis, and signal generation to aid investors in making more informed trading decisions.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Precision Trendf as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Coppock Curve
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
GKD-C GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest
GKD-C Precision Trend [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C Precision Trend is a confirmation module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
█ Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C Precision Trend
The Precision Trend indicator is a type of price trend indicator that is calculated based on a certain period and sensitivity level. It uses a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the range of price (high and low) within a specific period.
Here's a high-level conceptual overview of how it works:
Period & Sensitivity: The Precision Trend indicator first takes in two inputs: the period and sensitivity. The period specifies how many past periods (like days, hours, etc. based on the chart's timeframe) should be considered when calculating the indicator. Sensitivity is a factor that allows users to adjust how reactive the trend indicator is to price changes.
Calculate the SMA: The indicator starts by calculating the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the price range (high minus low) over the defined period. This average is then scaled by the sensitivity.
Set Initial Variables: Several variables are initialized to represent the trend, adjusted closing price values, and other factors used in determining the trend.
Trend Determination: Based on whether the trend in the previous period was upwards, downwards, or non-existent, different logic is applied. Essentially, the algorithm checks the relationship between the current closing price and adjusted high and low values to determine if the trend should switch or continue.
If there was no trend previously, the closing price is compared to the adjusted high and low values. If the closing price is greater than the adjusted high value, an upward trend is established. If the closing price is less than the adjusted low value, a downward trend is established.
If the trend was upwards previously, it checks if the current closing price has dropped below the adjusted low value, which might signal a trend reversal to a downward trend.
If the trend was downwards previously, it checks if the current closing price has risen above the adjusted high value, which might signal a trend reversal to an upward trend.
The Precision Trend indicator gives traders an idea about the trend in the market, helping them decide when to enter or exit trades based on the trend direction and possible trend reversals.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Precision Trendf as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Coppock Curve
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
GKD BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest is a backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
█ Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest
The Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest is a Full GKD backtest that allows traders to test single GKD-C Confirmation indicator filtered by a GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline, GKD-V Volatility/Volume, and GKD-C Confirmation 2 indicator across 1-10 tickers. In addition. this module adds on various other long and short signls that fall outside the normal GKD standard long and short signals. These additional signals are formed using the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline, GKD-V Volatility/Volume, GKD-C Confirmation 2, and GKD-C Continuation indicators. The purpose of this backtest is to enable traders to quickly evaluate a Baseline, Volatility/Volume, Confirmation 2, and Continuation indicators filtered GKD-C Confirmation 1 indicator across hundreds of tickers within 30-60 minutes.
The backtest module supports testing with 1 take profit and 1 stop loss. It also offers the option to limit testing to a specific date range, allowing simulated forward testing using historical data. This backtest module only includes standard long and short signals. Additionally, users can choose to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. Traders can also select a highlighting threshold for Total Percent Wins and Percent Profitable, and Profit Factor.
To use this indicator:
1. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline indicator
2. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
3. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator
4. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator
5. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
6. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-C Confirmation 1 indicator.
7. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Confirmation 1 indicator.
8. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
9. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation 1 indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
10. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Confirmation 2 indicator.
11. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
12. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation 2 indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
13. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Continuation indicator.
14. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
15. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Continuation indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest.
16. When importing tickers, ensure that you import the same type of tickers for all 1-10 tickers. For example, test only FX or Cryptocurrency or Stocks. Do not combine different tradable asset types.
17. Make sure that your chart is set to a ticker that corresponds to the tradable asset type. For cryptocurrency testing, set the chart to BTCUSDT. For Forex testing, set the chart to EURUSD.
This backtest includes the following metrics:
1. Net profit: Overall profit or loss achieved.
2. Total Closed Trades: Total number of closed trades, both winning and losing.
3. Total Percent Wins: Total wins, whether long or short, for the selected time interval regardless of commissions and other profit-modifying addons.
4. Percent Profitable: Total wins, whether long or short, that are also profitable, taking commissions into account.
5. Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses, indicating how much money the strategy made for every unit of money it lost.
6. Average Profit per Trade: The average gain or loss per trade, calculated by dividing the net profit by the total number of closed trades.
7. Average Number of Bars in Trade: The average number of bars that elapsed during trades for all closed trades.
Summary of notable settings:
Input Tickers separated by commas: Allows the user to input tickers separated by commas, specifying the symbols or tickers of financial instruments used in the backtest. The tickers should follow the format "EXCHANGE:TICKER" (e.g., "NASDAQ:AAPL, NYSE:MSFT").
Import GKD-B Baseline: Imports the "GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline" indicator.
Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume: Imports the "GKD-V Volatility/Volume" indicator.
Import GKD-C Confirmation: Imports the "GKD-C" indicator.
Activate Baseline: Activates the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline.
Activate Goldie Locks Zone Minimum Threshold: Activates the inner Goldie Locks Zone from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline
Activate Goldie Locks Zone Maximum Threshold: Activates the outer Goldie Locks Zone from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline
Activate Volatility/Volume: Activates the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator.
Initial Capital: Represents the starting account balance for the backtest, denominated in the base currency of the trading account.
Order Size: Determines the quantity of contracts traded in each trade.
Order Type: Specifies the type of order used in the backtest, either "Contracts" or "% Equity."
Commission: Represents the commission per order or transaction cost incurred in each trade.
**the backtest data rendered to the chart above uses $5 commission per trade and 10% equity per trade with $1 million initial capital. Each backtest result for each ticker assumes these same inputs. The results are NOT cumulative, they are separate and isolate per ticker and trading side, long or short**
█ Volatility Types included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker Full GKD Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Fisher Transform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018 as shown on the chart above
Continuation: Coppock Curve as shown on the chart above
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest is a backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
█ Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest
The Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest is a Solo Confirmation Super Complex backtest that allows traders to test single GKD-C Confirmation indicator filtered by both a GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline and GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator across 1-10 tickers. In addition. this module adds on various other long and short signls that fall outside the normal GKD standard long and short signals. These additional signals are formed using the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline, GKD-V Volatility/Volume, and GKD-C Continuation indicators. The purpose of this backtest is to enable traders to quickly evaluate a Baseline, Volatility/Volume, and Continuation indicators filtered GKD-C Confirmation 1 indicator across hundreds of tickers within 30-60 minutes.
The backtest module supports testing with 1 take profit and 1 stop loss. It also offers the option to limit testing to a specific date range, allowing simulated forward testing using historical data. This backtest module only includes standard long and short signals. Additionally, users can choose to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. Traders can also select a highlighting threshold for Total Percent Wins and Percent Profitable, and Profit Factor.
To use this indicator:
1. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline indicator
2. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest.
3. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator
4. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator
5. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest.
6. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-C Confirmation indicator.
7. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Confirmation indicator.
8. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest.
9. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest.
10. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Continuation indicator.
11. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest.
12. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Continuation indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest.
13. When importing tickers, ensure that you import the same type of tickers for all 1-10 tickers. For example, test only FX or Cryptocurrency or Stocks. Do not combine different tradable asset types.
14. Make sure that your chart is set to a ticker that corresponds to the tradable asset type. For cryptocurrency testing, set the chart to BTCUSDT. For Forex testing, set the chart to EURUSD.
This backtest includes the following metrics:
1. Net profit: Overall profit or loss achieved.
2. Total Closed Trades: Total number of closed trades, both winning and losing.
3. Total Percent Wins: Total wins, whether long or short, for the selected time interval regardless of commissions and other profit-modifying addons.
4. Percent Profitable: Total wins, whether long or short, that are also profitable, taking commissions into account.
5. Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses, indicating how much money the strategy made for every unit of money it lost.
6. Average Profit per Trade: The average gain or loss per trade, calculated by dividing the net profit by the total number of closed trades.
7. Average Number of Bars in Trade: The average number of bars that elapsed during trades for all closed trades.
Summary of notable settings:
Input Tickers separated by commas: Allows the user to input tickers separated by commas, specifying the symbols or tickers of financial instruments used in the backtest. The tickers should follow the format "EXCHANGE:TICKER" (e.g., "NASDAQ:AAPL, NYSE:MSFT").
Import GKD-B Baseline: Imports the "GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline" indicator.
Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume: Imports the "GKD-V Volatility/Volume" indicator.
Import GKD-C Confirmation: Imports the "GKD-C Confirmation" indicator.
Import GKD-C Continuation: Imports the "GKD-C Continuation" indicator.
Initial Capital: Represents the starting account balance for the backtest, denominated in the base currency of the trading account.
Order Size: Determines the quantity of contracts traded in each trade.
Order Type: Specifies the type of order used in the backtest, either "Contracts" or "% Equity."
Commission: Represents the commission per order or transaction cost incurred in each trade.
**the backtest data rendered to the chart above uses $5 commission per trade and 10% equity per trade with $1 million initial capital. Each backtest result for each ticker assumes these same inputs. The results are NOT cumulative, they are separate and isolate per ticker and trading side, long or short**
█ Volatility Types included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker SCSC Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Fisher Transform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Coppock Curve as shown on the chart above
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline is a Baseline module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
This is a special implementation of GKD-B Baseline that allows the trader to input multiple tickers to be passed onto a GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Backtest. This baseline can only be used with the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker Backtests.
GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline includes 64 different moving averages:
Adaptive Moving Average - AMA
ADXvma - Average Directional Volatility Moving Average
Ahrens Moving Average
Alexander Moving Average - ALXMA
Deviation Scaled Moving Average - DSMA
Donchian
Double Exponential Moving Average - DEMA
Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average - DSEMA
Double Smoothed FEMA - DSFEMA
Double Smoothed Range Weighted EMA - DSRWEMA
Double Smoothed Wilders EMA - DSWEMA
Double Weighted Moving Average - DWMA
Ehlers Optimal Tracking Filter - EOTF
Exponential Moving Average - EMA
Fast Exponential Moving Average - FEMA
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average - FRAMA
Generalized DEMA - GDEMA
Generalized Double DEMA - GDDEMA
Hull Moving Average (Type 1) - HMA1
Hull Moving Average (Type 2) - HMA2
Hull Moving Average (Type 3) - HMA3
Hull Moving Average (Type 4) - HMA4
IE /2 - Early T3 by Tim Tilson
Integral of Linear Regression Slope - ILRS
Instantaneous Trendline
Kalman Filter
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average - KAMA
Laguerre Filter
Leader Exponential Moving Average
Linear Regression Value - LSMA ( Least Squares Moving Average )
Linear Weighted Moving Average - LWMA
McGinley Dynamic
McNicholl EMA
Non-Lag Moving Average
Ocean NMA Moving Average - ONMAMA
One More Moving Average - OMA
Parabolic Weighted Moving Average
Probability Density Function Moving Average - PDFMA
Quadratic Regression Moving Average - QRMA
Regularized EMA - REMA
Range Weighted EMA - RWEMA
Recursive Moving Trendline
Simple Decycler - SDEC
Simple Jurik Moving Average - SJMA
Simple Moving Average - SMA
Sine Weighted Moving Average
Smoothed LWMA - SLWMA
Smoothed Moving Average - SMMA
Smoother
Super Smoother
T3
Three-pole Ehlers Butterworth
Three-pole Ehlers Smoother
Triangular Moving Average - TMA
Triple Exponential Moving Average - TEMA
Two-pole Ehlers Butterworth
Two-pole Ehlers smoother
Variable Index Dynamic Average - VIDYA
Variable Moving Average - VMA
Volume Weighted EMA - VEMA
Volume Weighted Moving Average - VWMA
Zero-Lag DEMA - Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average
Zero-Lag Moving Average
Zero Lag TEMA - Zero Lag Triple Exponential Moving Average
Adaptive Moving Average - AMA
The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) is a moving average that changes its sensitivity to price moves depending on the calculated volatility. It becomes more sensitive during periods when the price is moving smoothly in a certain direction and becomes less sensitive when the price is volatile.
ADXvma - Average Directional Volatility Moving Average
Linnsoft's ADXvma formula is a volatility-based moving average, with the volatility being determined by the value of the ADX indicator.
The ADXvma has the SMA in Chande's CMO replaced with an EMA , it then uses a few more layers of EMA smoothing before the "Volatility Index" is calculated.
A side effect is, those additional layers slow down the ADXvma when you compare it to Chande's Variable Index Dynamic Average VIDYA .
The ADXVMA provides support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends and will stay flat for longer, but will create some of the most accurate market signals when it decides to move.
Ahrens Moving Average
Richard D. Ahrens's Moving Average promises "Smoother Data" that isn't influenced by the occasional price spike. It works by using the Open and the Close in his formula so that the only time the Ahrens Moving Average will change is when the candlestick is either making new highs or new lows.
Alexander Moving Average - ALXMA
This Moving Average uses an elaborate smoothing formula and utilizes a 7 period Moving Average. It corresponds to fitting a second-order polynomial to seven consecutive observations. This moving average is rarely used in trading but is interesting as this Moving Average has been applied to diffusion indexes that tend to be very volatile.
Deviation Scaled Moving Average - DSMA
The Deviation-Scaled Moving Average is a data smoothing technique that acts like an exponential moving average with a dynamic smoothing coefficient. The smoothing coefficient is automatically updated based on the magnitude of price changes. In the Deviation-Scaled Moving Average, the standard deviation from the mean is chosen to be the measure of this magnitude. The resulting indicator provides substantial smoothing of the data even when price changes are small while quickly adapting to these changes.
Donchian
Donchian Channels are three lines generated by moving average calculations that comprise an indicator formed by upper and lower bands around a midrange or median band. The upper band marks the highest price of a security over N periods while the lower band marks the lowest price of a security over N periods.
Double Exponential Moving Average - DEMA
The Double Exponential Moving Average ( DEMA ) combines a smoothed EMA and a single EMA to provide a low-lag indicator. It's primary purpose is to reduce the amount of "lagging entry" opportunities, and like all Moving Averages, the DEMA confirms uptrends whenever price crosses on top of it and closes above it, and confirms downtrends when the price crosses under it and closes below it - but with significantly less lag.
Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average - DSEMA
The Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average is a lot less laggy compared to a traditional EMA . It's also considered a leading indicator compared to the EMA , and is best utilized whenever smoothness and speed of reaction to market changes are required.
Double Smoothed FEMA - DSFEMA
Same as the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), but uses a faster version of EMA for its calculation.
Double Smoothed Range Weighted EMA - DSRWEMA
Range weighted exponential moving average (EMA) is, unlike the "regular" range weighted average calculated in a different way. Even though the basis - the range weighting - is the same, the way how it is calculated is completely different. By definition this type of EMA is calculated as a ratio of EMA of price*weight / EMA of weight. And the results are very different and the two should be considered as completely different types of averages. The higher than EMA to price changes responsiveness when the ranges increase remains in this EMA too and in those cases this EMA is clearly leading the "regular" EMA. This version includes double smoothing.
Double Smoothed Wilders EMA - DSWEMA
Welles Wilder was frequently using one "special" case of EMA (Exponential Moving Average) that is due to that fact (that he used it) sometimes called Wilder's EMA. This version is adding double smoothing to Wilder's EMA in order to make it "faster" (it is more responsive to market prices than the original) and is still keeping very smooth values.
Double Weighted Moving Average - DWMA
Double weighted moving average is an LWMA (Linear Weighted Moving Average). Instead of doing one cycle for calculating the LWMA, the indicator is made to cycle the loop 2 times. That produces a smoother values than the original LWMA
Ehlers Optimal Tracking Filter - EOTF
The Elher's Optimum Tracking Filter quickly adjusts rapid shifts in the price and yet is relatively smooth when the price has a sideways action. The operation of this filter is similar to Kaufman’s Adaptive Moving
Average
Exponential Moving Average - EMA
The EMA places more significance on recent data points and moves closer to price than the SMA ( Simple Moving Average ). It reacts faster to volatility due to its emphasis on recent data and is known for its ability to give greater weight to recent and more relevant data. The EMA is therefore seen as an enhancement over the SMA .
Fast Exponential Moving Average - FEMA
An Exponential Moving Average with a short look-back period.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average - FRAMA
The Fractal Adaptive Moving Average by John Ehlers is an intelligent adaptive Moving Average which takes the importance of price changes into account and follows price closely enough to display significant moves whilst remaining flat if price ranges. The FRAMA does this by dynamically adjusting the look-back period based on the market's fractal geometry.
Generalized DEMA - GDEMA
The double exponential moving average (DEMA), was developed by Patrick Mulloy in an attempt to reduce the amount of lag time found in traditional moving averages. It was first introduced in the February 1994 issue of the magazine Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in Mulloy's article "Smoothing Data with Faster Moving Averages.". Instead of using fixed multiplication factor in the final DEMA formula, the generalized version allows you to change it. By varying the "volume factor" form 0 to 1 you apply different multiplications and thus producing DEMA with different "speed" - the higher the volume factor is the "faster" the DEMA will be (but also the slope of it will be less smooth). The volume factor is limited in the calculation to 1 since any volume factor that is larger than 1 is increasing the overshooting to the extent that some volume factors usage makes the indicator unusable.
Generalized Double DEMA - GDDEMA
The double exponential moving average (DEMA), was developed by Patrick Mulloy in an attempt to reduce the amount of lag time found in traditional moving averages. It was first introduced in the February 1994 issue of the magazine Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in Mulloy's article "Smoothing Data with Faster Moving Averages''. This is an extension of the Generalized DEMA using Tim Tillsons (the inventor of T3) idea, and is using GDEMA of GDEMA for calculation (which is the "middle step" of T3 calculation). Since there are no versions showing that middle step, this version covers that too. The result is smoother than Generalized DEMA, but is less smooth than T3 - one has to do some experimenting in order to find the optimal way to use it, but in any case, since it is "faster" than the T3 (Tim Tillson T3) and still smooth, it looks like a good compromise between speed and smoothness.
Hull Moving Average (Type 1) - HMA1
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses SMA for smoothing.
Hull Moving Average (Type 2) - HMA2
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses EMA for smoothing.
Hull Moving Average (Type 3) - HMA3
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses LWMA for smoothing.
Hull Moving Average (Type 4) - HMA4
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses SMMA for smoothing.
IE /2 - Early T3 by Tim Tilson and T3 new
The T3 moving average is a type of technical indicator used in financial analysis to identify trends in price movements. It is similar to the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), but uses a different smoothing algorithm.
The T3 moving average is calculated using a series of exponential moving averages that are designed to filter out noise and smooth the data. The resulting smoothed data is then weighted with a non-linear function to produce a final output that is more responsive to changes in trend direction.
The T3 moving average can be customized by adjusting the length of the moving average, as well as the weighting function used to smooth the data. It is commonly used in conjunction with other technical indicators as part of a larger trading strategy.
Integral of Linear Regression Slope - ILRS
A Moving Average where the slope of a linear regression line is simply integrated as it is fitted in a moving window of length N (natural numbers in maths) across the data. The derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. ILRS is not the same as a SMA ( Simple Moving Average ) of length N, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data.
Instantaneous Trendline
The Instantaneous Trendline is created by removing the dominant cycle component from the price information which makes this Moving Average suitable for medium to long-term trading.
Kalman Filter
Kalman filter is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, containing statistical noise and other inaccuracies. This means that the filter was originally designed to work with noisy data. Also, it is able to work with incomplete data. Another advantage is that it is designed for and applied in dynamic systems; our price chart belongs to such systems. This version is true to the original design of the trade-ready Kalman Filter where velocity is the triggering mechanism.
Kalman Filter is a more accurate smoothing/prediction algorithm than the moving average because it is adaptive: it accounts for estimation errors and tries to adjust its predictions from the information it learned in the previous stage. Theoretically, Kalman Filter consists of measurement and transition components.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average - KAMA
Developed by Perry Kaufman, Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) is a moving average designed to account for market noise or volatility. KAMA will closely follow prices when the price swings are relatively small and the noise is low.
Laguerre Filter
The Laguerre Filter is a smoothing filter which is based on Laguerre polynomials. The filter requires the current price, three prior prices, a user defined factor called Alpha to fill its calculation.
Adjusting the Alpha coefficient is used to increase or decrease its lag and its smoothness.
Leader Exponential Moving Average
The Leader EMA was created by Giorgos E. Siligardos who created a Moving Average which was able to eliminate lag altogether whilst maintaining some smoothness. It was first described during his research paper "MACD Leader" where he applied this to the MACD to improve its signals and remove its lagging issue. This filter uses his leading MACD's "modified EMA" and can be used as a zero lag filter.
Linear Regression Value - LSMA ( Least Squares Moving Average )
LSMA as a Moving Average is based on plotting the end point of the linear regression line. It compares the current value to the prior value and a determination is made of a possible trend, eg. the linear regression line is pointing up or down.
Linear Weighted Moving Average - LWMA
LWMA reacts to price quicker than the SMA and EMA . Although it's similar to the Simple Moving Average , the difference is that a weight coefficient is multiplied to the price which means the most recent price has the highest weighting, and each prior price has progressively less weight. The weights drop in a linear fashion.
McGinley Dynamic
John McGinley created this Moving Average to track prices better than traditional Moving Averages. It does this by incorporating an automatic adjustment factor into its formula, which speeds (or slows) the indicator in trending, or ranging, markets.
McNicholl EMA
Dennis McNicholl developed this Moving Average to use as his center line for his "Better Bollinger Bands" indicator and was successful because it responded better to volatility changes over the standard SMA and managed to avoid common whipsaws.
Non-lag moving average
The Non Lag Moving average follows price closely and gives very quick signals as well as early signals of price change. As a standalone Moving Average, it should not be used on its own, but as an additional confluence tool for early signals.
Ocean NMA Moving Average - ONMAMA
Created by Jim Sloman, the NMA is a moving average that automatically adjusts to volatility without being programmed to do so. For more info, read his guide "Ocean Theory, an Introduction"
One More Moving Average (OMA)
The One More Moving Average (OMA) is a technical indicator that calculates a series of Jurik-style moving averages in order to reduce noise and provide smoother price data. It uses six exponential moving averages to generate the final value, with the length of the moving averages determined by an adaptive algorithm that adjusts to the current market conditions. The algorithm calculates the average period by comparing the signal to noise ratio and using this value to determine the length of the moving averages. The resulting values are used to generate the final value of the OMA, which can be used to identify trends and potential changes in trend direction.
Parabolic Weighted Moving Average
The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation of the Linear Weighted Moving Average . The Linear Weighted Moving Average calculates the average by assigning different weights to each element in its calculation. The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation that allows weights to be changed to form a parabolic curve. It is done simply by using the Power parameter of this indicator.
Probability Density Function Moving Average - PDFMA
Probability density function based MA is a sort of weighted moving average that uses probability density function to calculate the weights. By its nature it is similar to a lot of digital filters.
Quadratic Regression Moving Average - QRMA
A quadratic regression is the process of finding the equation of the parabola that best fits a set of data. This moving average is an obscure concept that was posted to Forex forums in around 2008.
Regularized EMA - REMA
The regularized exponential moving average (REMA) by Chris Satchwell is a variation on the EMA (see Exponential Moving Average) designed to be smoother but not introduce too much extra lag.
Range Weighted EMA - RWEMA
This indicator is a variation of the range weighted EMA. The variation comes from a possible need to make that indicator a bit less "noisy" when it comes to slope changes. The method used for calculating this variation is the method described by Lee Leibfarth in his article "Trading With An Adaptive Price Zone".
Recursive Moving Trendline
Dennis Meyers's Recursive Moving Trendline uses a recursive (repeated application of a rule) polynomial fit, a technique that uses a small number of past values estimations of price and today's price to predict tomorrow's price.
Simple Decycler - SDEC
The Ehlers Simple Decycler study is a virtually zero-lag technical indicator proposed by John F. Ehlers. The original idea behind this study (and several others created by John F. Ehlers) is that market data can be considered a continuum of cycle periods with different cycle amplitudes. Thus, trending periods can be considered segments of longer cycles, or, in other words, low-frequency segments. Applying the right filter might help identify these segments.
Simple Loxx Moving Average - SLMA
A three stage moving average combining an adaptive EMA, a Kalman Filter, and a Kauffman adaptive filter.
Simple Moving Average - SMA
The SMA calculates the average of a range of prices by adding recent prices and then dividing that figure by the number of time periods in the calculation average. It is the most basic Moving Average which is seen as a reliable tool for starting off with Moving Average studies. As reliable as it may be, the basic moving average will work better when it's enhanced into an EMA .
Sine Weighted Moving Average
The Sine Weighted Moving Average assigns the most weight at the middle of the data set. It does this by weighting from the first half of a Sine Wave Cycle and the most weighting is given to the data in the middle of that data set. The Sine WMA closely resembles the TMA (Triangular Moving Average).
Smoothed LWMA - SLWMA
A smoothed version of the LWMA
Smoothed Moving Average - SMMA
The Smoothed Moving Average is similar to the Simple Moving Average ( SMA ), but aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. SMMA takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Due to this, it's seen as an accurate yet laggy Moving Average.
Smoother
The Smoother filter is a faster-reacting smoothing technique which generates considerably less lag than the SMMA ( Smoothed Moving Average ). It gives earlier signals but can also create false signals due to its earlier reactions. This filter is sometimes wrongly mistaken for the superior Jurik Smoothing algorithm.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother filter uses John Ehlers’s “Super Smoother” which consists of a Two pole Butterworth filter combined with a 2-bar SMA ( Simple Moving Average ) that suppresses the 22050 Hz Nyquist frequency: A characteristic of a sampler, which converts a continuous function or signal into a discrete sequence.
Three-pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the Two pole Butterworth) are both superior alternatives to the EMA and SMA . They aim at producing less lag whilst maintaining accuracy. The 2 pole filter will give you a better approximation for price, whereas the 3 pole filter has superior smoothing.
Three-pole Ehlers smoother
The 3 pole Ehlers smoother works almost as close to price as the above mentioned 3 Pole Ehlers Butterworth. It acts as a strong baseline for signals but removes some noise. Side by side, it hardly differs from the Three Pole Ehlers Butterworth but when examined closely, it has better overshoot reduction compared to the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth.
Triangular Moving Average - TMA
The TMA is similar to the EMA but uses a different weighting scheme. Exponential and weighted Moving Averages will assign weight to the most recent price data. Simple moving averages will assign the weight equally across all the price data. With a TMA (Triangular Moving Average), it is double smoother (averaged twice) so the majority of the weight is assigned to the middle portion of the data.
Triple Exponential Moving Average - TEMA
The TEMA uses multiple EMA calculations as well as subtracting lag to create a tool which can be used for scalping pullbacks. As it follows price closely, its signals are considered very noisy and should only be used in extremely fast-paced trading conditions.
Two-pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 2 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the three pole Butterworth mentioned above) is another filter that cuts out the noise and follows the price closely. The 2 pole is seen as a faster, leading filter over the 3 pole and follows price a bit more closely. Analysts will utilize both a 2 pole and a 3 pole Butterworth on the same chart using the same period, but having both on chart allows its crosses to be traded.
Two-pole Ehlers smoother
A smoother version of the Two pole Ehlers Butterworth. This filter is the faster version out of the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth. It does a decent job at cutting out market noise whilst emphasizing a closer following to price over the 3 pole Ehlers .
Variable Index Dynamic Average - VIDYA
Variable Index Dynamic Average Technical Indicator ( VIDYA ) was developed by Tushar Chande. It is an original method of calculating the Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) with the dynamically changing period of averaging.
Variable Moving Average - VMA
The Variable Moving Average (VMA) is a study that uses an Exponential Moving Average being able to automatically adjust its smoothing factor according to the market volatility.
Volume Weighted EMA - VEMA
An EMA that uses a volume and price weighted calculation instead of the standard price input.
Volume Weighted Moving Average - VWMA
A Volume Weighted Moving Average is a moving average where more weight is given to bars with heavy volume than with light volume. Thus the value of the moving average will be closer to where most trading actually happened than it otherwise would be without being volume weighted.
Zero-Lag DEMA - Zero Lag Double Exponential Moving Average
John Ehlers's Zero Lag DEMA's aim is to eliminate the inherent lag associated with all trend following indicators which average a price over time. Because this is a Double Exponential Moving Average with Zero Lag, it has a tendency to overshoot and create a lot of false signals for swing trading. It can however be used for quick scalping or as a secondary indicator for confluence.
Zero-Lag Moving Average
The Zero Lag Moving Average is described by its creator, John Ehlers , as a Moving Average with absolutely no delay. And it's for this reason that this filter will cause a lot of abrupt signals which will not be ideal for medium to long-term traders. This filter is designed to follow price as close as possible whilst de-lagging data instead of basing it on regular data. The way this is done is by attempting to remove the cumulative effect of the Moving Average.
Zero-Lag TEMA - Zero Lag Triple Exponential Moving Average
Just like the Zero Lag DEMA , this filter will give you the fastest signals out of all the Zero Lag Moving Averages. This is useful for scalping but dangerous for medium to long-term traders, especially during market Volatility and news events. Having no lag, this filter also has no smoothing in its signals and can cause some very bizarre behavior when applied to certain indicators.
█ Volatility Goldie Locks Zone
This volatility filter is the standard first pass filter that is used for all NNFX systems despite the additional volatility/volume filter used in step 5. For this filter, price must fall into a range of maximum and minimum values calculated using multiples of volatility. Unlike the standard NNFX systems, this version of volatility filtering is separated from the core Baseline and uses it's own moving average with Loxx's Exotic Source Types.
█ Volatility Types included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Fisher Trasnform
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest is a backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
The Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest is a Solo Confirmation Complex backtest that allows traders to test single GKD-C confirmation indicator filtered by both a GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline and GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator across 1-10 tickers. The purpose of this backtest is to enable traders to quickly evaluate a Baseline and Volatility/Volume filtered GKD-C Confirmation indicator across hundreds of tickers within 30-60 minutes.
The backtest module supports testing with 1 take profit and 1 stop loss. It also offers the option to limit testing to a specific date range, allowing simulated forward testing using historical data. This backtest module only includes standard long and short signals. Additionally, users can choose to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. Traders can also select a highlighting threshold for Total Percent Wins and Percent Profitable, and Profit Factor.
To use this indicator:
1. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline indicator
2. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest.
3. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator
4. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator
5. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest.
6. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-C Confirmation indicator.
7. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Confirmation indicator.
8. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest.
9. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest.
10. When importing tickers, ensure that you import the same type of tickers for all 1-10 tickers. For example, test only FX or Cryptocurrency or Stocks. Do not combine different tradable asset types.
11. Make sure that your chart is set to a ticker that corresponds to the tradable asset type. For cryptocurrency testing, set the chart to BTCUSDT. For Forex testing, set the chart to EURUSD.
This backtest includes the following metrics:
1. Net profit: Overall profit or loss achieved.
2. Total Closed Trades: Total number of closed trades, both winning and losing.
3. Total Percent Wins: Total wins, whether long or short, for the selected time interval regardless of commissions and other profit-modifying addons.
4. Percent Profitable: Total wins, whether long or short, that are also profitable, taking commissions into account.
5. Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses, indicating how much money the strategy made for every unit of money it lost.
6. Average Profit per Trade: The average gain or loss per trade, calculated by dividing the net profit by the total number of closed trades.
7. Average Number of Bars in Trade: The average number of bars that elapsed during trades for all closed trades.
Summary of notable settings:
Input Tickers separated by commas: Allows the user to input tickers separated by commas, specifying the symbols or tickers of financial instruments used in the backtest. The tickers should follow the format "EXCHANGE:TICKER" (e.g., "NASDAQ:AAPL, NYSE:MSFT").
Import GKD-B Baseline: Imports the "GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline" indicator.
Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume: Imports the "GKD-V Volatility/Volume" indicator.
Import GKD-C Confirmation: Imports the "GKD-C" indicator.
Activate Baseline: Activates the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline.
Activate Goldie Locks Zone Minimum Threshold: Activates the inner Goldie Locks Zone from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline
Activate Goldie Locks Zone Maximum Threshold: Activates the outer Goldie Locks Zone from the GKD-B Multi-Ticker Baseline
Activate Volatility/Volume: Activates the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator.
Initial Capital: Represents the starting account balance for the backtest, denominated in the base currency of the trading account.
Order Size: Determines the quantity of contracts traded in each trade.
Order Type: Specifies the type of order used in the backtest, either "Contracts" or "% Equity."
Commission: Represents the commission per order or transaction cost incurred in each trade.
**the backtest data rendered to the chart above uses $5 commission per trade and 10% equity per trade with $1 million initial capital. Each backtest result for each ticker assumes these same inputs. The results are NOT cumulative, they are separate and isolate per ticker and trading side, long or short**
Volatility Types included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker SCC Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Fisher Trasnform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest [Loxx]The Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest is a backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System."
The Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest is a Solo Confirmation Simple backtest that allows traders to test single GKD-C confirmation indicators across 1-10 tickers. The purpose of this backtest is to enable traders to quickly evaluate GKD-C across hundreds of tickers within 30-60 minutes.
The backtest module supports testing with 1 take profit and 1 stop loss. It also offers the option to limit testing to a specific date range, allowing simulated forward testing using historical data. This backtest module only includes standard long and short signals. Additionally, users can choose to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. Traders can also select a highlighting treshold for Total Percent Wins and Percent Profitable, and Profit Factor.
To use this indicator:
1. Select the "Multi-ticker" option in the GKD-C Confirmation indicator.
2. Import 1-10 tickers into the GKD-C Confirmation indicator.
3. Import the same 1-10 indicators into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest.
4. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Multi-ticker Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation indicator into the GKD-BT Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest.
5. When importing tickers, ensure that you import the same type of tickers for all 1-10 tickers. For example, test only FX or Cryptocurrency or Stocks. Do not combine different tradable asset types.
6. Make sure that your chart is set to a ticker that corresponds to the tradable asset type. For cryptocurrency testing, set the chart to BTCUSDT. For Forex testing, set the chart to EURUSD.
This backtest includes the following metrics:
1. Net profit: Overall profit or loss achieved.
2. Total Closed Trades: Total number of closed trades, both winning and losing.
3. Total Percent Wins: Total wins, whether long or short, for the selected time interval regardless of commissions and other profit-modifying addons.
4. Percent Profitable: Total wins, whether long or short, that are also profitable, taking commissions into account.
5. Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profits to gross losses, indicating how much money the strategy made for every unit of money it lost.
6. Average Profit per Trade: The average gain or loss per trade, calculated by dividing the net profit by the total number of closed trades.
7. Average Number of Bars in Trade: The average number of bars that elapsed during trades for all closed trades.
Summary of notable settings:
Input Tickers separated by commas: Allows the user to input tickers separated by commas, specifying the symbols or tickers of financial instruments used in the backtest. The tickers should follow the format "EXCHANGE:TICKER" (e.g., "NASDAQ:AAPL, NYSE:MSFT").
Import GKD-C: Imports the "GKD-C" source, which provides signals or data for the backtest.
Initial Capital: Represents the starting account balance for the backtest, denominated in the base currency of the trading account.
Order Size: Determines the quantity of contracts traded in each trade.
Order Type: Specifies the type of order used in the backtest, either "Contracts" or "% Equity."
Commission: Represents the commission per order or transaction cost incurred in each trade.
**the backtest data rendered to the chart above uses $5 commission per trade and 10% equity per trade with $1 million initial capital. Each backtest result for each ticker assumes these same inputs. The results are NOT cumulative, they are separate and isolate per ticker and trading side, long or short**
Volatility Types included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Multi-Ticker SCS Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Kase Peak Oscillator
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
Nonlinear Regression, Zero-lag Moving Average [Loxx]Nonlinear Regression and Zero-lag Moving Average
Technical indicators are widely used in financial markets to analyze price data and make informed trading decisions. This indicator presents an implementation of two popular indicators: Nonlinear Regression and Zero-lag Moving Average (ZLMA). Let's explore the functioning of these indicators and discuss their significance in technical analysis.
Nonlinear Regression
The Nonlinear Regression indicator aims to fit a nonlinear curve to a given set of data points. It calculates the best-fit curve by minimizing the sum of squared errors between the actual data points and the predicted values on the curve. The curve is determined by solving a system of equations derived from the data points.
We define a function "nonLinearRegression" that takes two parameters: "src" (the input data series) and "per" (the period over which the regression is calculated). It calculates the coefficients of the nonlinear curve using the least squares method and returns the predicted value for the current period. The nonlinear regression curve provides insights into the overall trend and potential reversals in the price data.
Zero-lag Moving Average (ZLMA)
Moving averages are widely used to smoothen price data and identify trend directions. However, traditional moving averages introduce a lag due to the inclusion of past data. The Zero-lag Moving Average (ZLMA) overcomes this lag by dynamically adjusting the weights of past values, resulting in a more responsive moving average.
We create a function named "zlma" that calculates the ZLMA. It takes two parameters: "src" (the input data series) and "per" (the period over which the ZLMA is calculated). The ZLMA is computed by first calculating a weighted moving average (LWMA) using a linearly decreasing weight scheme. The LWMA is then used to calculate the ZLMA by applying the same weight scheme again. The ZLMA provides a smoother representation of the price data while reducing lag.
Combining Nonlinear Regression and ZLMA
The ZLMA is applied to the input data series using the function "zlma(src, zlmaper)". The ZLMA values are then passed as input to the "nonLinearRegression" function, along with the specified period for nonlinear regression. The output of the nonlinear regression is stored in the variable "out".
To enhance the visual representation of the indicator, colors are assigned based on the relationship between the nonlinear regression value and a signal value (sig) calculated from the previous period's nonlinear regression value. If the current "out" value is greater than the previous "sig" value, the color is set to green; otherwise, it is set to red.
The indicator also includes optional features such as coloring the bars based on the indicator's values and displaying signals for potential long and short positions. The signals are generated based on the crossover and crossunder of the "out" and "sig" values.
Wrapping Up
This indicator combines two important concepts: Nonlinear Regression and Zero-lag Moving Average indicators, which are valuable tools for technical analysis in financial markets. These indicators help traders identify trends, potential reversals, and generate trading signals. By combining the nonlinear regression curve with the zero-lag moving average, this indicator provides a comprehensive view of the price dynamics. Traders can customize the indicator's settings and use it in conjunction with other analysis techniques to make well-informed trading decisions.
Step RSI [Loxx]Enhanced Moving Average Calculation with Stepped Moving Average and the Advantages over Regular RSI
Technical analysis plays a crucial role in understanding and predicting market trends. One popular indicator used by traders and analysts is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, an enhanced approach called Stepped Moving Average, in combination with the Slow RSI function, offers several advantages over regular RSI calculations.
Stepped Moving Average and Moving Averages:
The Stepped Moving Average function serves as a crucial component in the calculation of moving averages. Moving averages smooth out price data over a specific period to identify trends and potential trading signals. By employing the Stepped Moving Average function, traders can enhance the accuracy of moving averages and make more informed decisions.
Stepped Moving Average takes two parameters: the current RSI value and a size parameter. It computes the next step in the moving average calculation by determining the upper and lower bounds of the moving average range. It accomplishes this by adjusting the values of smax and smin based on the given RSI and size.
Furthermore, Stepped Moving Average introduces the concept of a trend variable. By comparing the previous trend value with the current RSI and the previous upper and lower bounds, it updates the trend accordingly. This feature enables traders to identify potential shifts in market sentiment and make timely adjustments to their trading strategies.
Advantages over Regular RSI:
Enhanced Range Boundaries:
The inclusion of size parameters in Stepped Moving Average allows for more precise determination of the upper and lower bounds of the moving average range. This feature provides traders with a clearer understanding of the potential price levels that can influence market behavior. Consequently, it aids in setting more effective entry and exit points for trades.
Improved Trend Identification:
The trend variable in Stepped Moving Average helps traders identify changes in market trends more accurately. By considering the previous trend value and comparing it to the current RSI and previous bounds, Stepped Moving Average captures trend reversals with greater precision. This capability empowers traders to respond swiftly to market shifts and potentially capture more profitable trading opportunities.
Smoother Moving Averages:
Stepped Moving Average's ability to adjust the moving average range bounds based on trend changes and size parameters results in smoother moving averages. Regular RSI calculations may produce jagged or erratic results due to abrupt market movements. Stepped Moving Average mitigates this issue by dynamically adapting the range boundaries, thereby providing traders with more reliable and consistent moving average signals.
Complementary Functionality with Slow RSI:
Stepped Moving Average and Slow RSI function in harmony to provide a comprehensive trading analysis toolkit. While Stepped Moving Average refines the moving average calculation process, Slow RSI offers a more accurate representation of market strength. The combination of these two functions facilitates a deeper understanding of market dynamics and assists traders in making better-informed decisions.
Extras
-Alerts
-Signals
GKD-M Baseline Optimizer [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-M Baseline Optimizer is a Metamorphosis module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
The Baseline Optimizer enables traders to backtest over 60 moving averages using variable period inputs. It then exports the baseline with the highest cumulative win rate per candle to any baseline-enabled GKD backtest. To perform the backtesting, the trader selects an initial period input (default is 60) and a skip value that increments the initial period input up to seven times. For instance, if a skip value of 5 is chosen, the Baseline Optimizer will run the backtest for the selected moving average on periods such as 60, 65, 70, 75, and so on, up to 90. If the user selects an initial period input of 45 and a skip value of 2, the Baseline Optimizer will conduct backtests for the chosen moving average on periods like 45, 47, 49, 51, and so forth, up to 57.
The Baseline Optimizer provides a table displaying the output of the backtests for a specified date range. The table output represents the cumulative win rate for the given date range.
On the Metamorphosis side of the Baseline Optimizer, a cumulative backtest is calculated for each candle within the date range. This means that each candle may exhibit a different distribution of period inputs with the highest win rate for a particular moving average. The Baseline Optimizer identifies the period input combination with the highest win rates for long and short positions and creates a win-rate adaptive long and short moving average chart. The moving average used for shorts differs from the moving average used for longs, and the moving average for each candle may vary from any other candle. This customized baseline can then be exported to all baseline-enabled GKD backtests.
The backtest employed in the Baseline Optimizer is a Solo Confirmation Simple, allowing only one take profit and one stop loss to be set.
Lastly, the Baseline Optimizer incorporates Goldie Locks Zone filtering, which can be utilized for signal generation in advanced GKD backtests.
█ Moving Averages included in the Baseline Optimizer
Adaptive Moving Average - AMA
ADXvma - Average Directional Volatility Moving Average
Ahrens Moving Average
Alexander Moving Average - ALXMA
Deviation Scaled Moving Average - DSMA
Donchian
Double Exponential Moving Average - DEMA
Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average - DSEMA
Double Smoothed FEMA - DSFEMA
Double Smoothed Range Weighted EMA - DSRWEMA
Double Smoothed Wilders EMA - DSWEMA
Double Weighted Moving Average - DWMA
Exponential Moving Average - EMA
Fast Exponential Moving Average - FEMA
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average - FRAMA
Generalized DEMA - GDEMA
Generalized Double DEMA - GDDEMA
Hull Moving Average (Type 1) - HMA1
Hull Moving Average (Type 2) - HMA2
Hull Moving Average (Type 3) - HMA3
Hull Moving Average (Type 4) - HMA4
IE /2 - Early T3 by Tim Tilson
Integral of Linear Regression Slope - ILRS
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average - KAMA
Leader Exponential Moving Average
Linear Regression Value - LSMA ( Least Squares Moving Average )
Linear Weighted Moving Average - LWMA
McGinley Dynamic
McNicholl EMA
Non-Lag Moving Average
Ocean NMA Moving Average - ONMAMA
One More Moving Average - OMA
Parabolic Weighted Moving Average
Probability Density Function Moving Average - PDFMA
Quadratic Regression Moving Average - QRMA
Regularized EMA - REMA
Range Weighted EMA - RWEMA
Recursive Moving Trendline
Simple Decycler - SDEC
Simple Jurik Moving Average - SJMA
Simple Moving Average - SMA
Sine Weighted Moving Average
Smoothed LWMA - SLWMA
Smoothed Moving Average - SMMA
Smoother
Super Smoother
T3
Three-pole Ehlers Butterworth
Three-pole Ehlers Smoother
Triangular Moving Average - TMA
Triple Exponential Moving Average - TEMA
Two-pole Ehlers Butterworth
Two-pole Ehlers smoother
Variable Index Dynamic Average - VIDYA
Variable Moving Average - VMA
Volume Weighted EMA - VEMA
Volume Weighted Moving Average - VWMA
Zero-Lag DEMA - Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average
Zero-Lag Moving Average
Zero Lag TEMA - Zero Lag Triple Exponential Moving Average
Adaptive Moving Average - AMA
The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) is a moving average that changes its sensitivity to price moves depending on the calculated volatility. It becomes more sensitive during periods when the price is moving smoothly in a certain direction and becomes less sensitive when the price is volatile.
ADXvma - Average Directional Volatility Moving Average
Linnsoft's ADXvma formula is a volatility-based moving average, with the volatility being determined by the value of the ADX indicator.
The ADXvma has the SMA in Chande's CMO replaced with an EMA , it then uses a few more layers of EMA smoothing before the "Volatility Index" is calculated.
A side effect is, those additional layers slow down the ADXvma when you compare it to Chande's Variable Index Dynamic Average VIDYA .
The ADXVMA provides support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends and will stay flat for longer, but will create some of the most accurate market signals when it decides to move.
Ahrens Moving Average
Richard D. Ahrens's Moving Average promises "Smoother Data" that isn't influenced by the occasional price spike. It works by using the Open and the Close in his formula so that the only time the Ahrens Moving Average will change is when the candlestick is either making new highs or new lows.
Alexander Moving Average - ALXMA
This Moving Average uses an elaborate smoothing formula and utilizes a 7 period Moving Average. It corresponds to fitting a second-order polynomial to seven consecutive observations. This moving average is rarely used in trading but is interesting as this Moving Average has been applied to diffusion indexes that tend to be very volatile.
Deviation Scaled Moving Average - DSMA
The Deviation-Scaled Moving Average is a data smoothing technique that acts like an exponential moving average with a dynamic smoothing coefficient. The smoothing coefficient is automatically updated based on the magnitude of price changes. In the Deviation-Scaled Moving Average, the standard deviation from the mean is chosen to be the measure of this magnitude. The resulting indicator provides substantial smoothing of the data even when price changes are small while quickly adapting to these changes.
Donchian
Donchian Channels are three lines generated by moving average calculations that comprise an indicator formed by upper and lower bands around a midrange or median band. The upper band marks the highest price of a security over N periods while the lower band marks the lowest price of a security over N periods.
Double Exponential Moving Average - DEMA
The Double Exponential Moving Average ( DEMA ) combines a smoothed EMA and a single EMA to provide a low-lag indicator. It's primary purpose is to reduce the amount of "lagging entry" opportunities, and like all Moving Averages, the DEMA confirms uptrends whenever price crosses on top of it and closes above it, and confirms downtrends when the price crosses under it and closes below it - but with significantly less lag.
Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average - DSEMA
The Double Smoothed Exponential Moving Average is a lot less laggy compared to a traditional EMA . It's also considered a leading indicator compared to the EMA , and is best utilized whenever smoothness and speed of reaction to market changes are required.
Double Smoothed FEMA - DSFEMA
Same as the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), but uses a faster version of EMA for its calculation.
Double Smoothed Range Weighted EMA - DSRWEMA
Range weighted exponential moving average (EMA) is, unlike the "regular" range weighted average calculated in a different way. Even though the basis - the range weighting - is the same, the way how it is calculated is completely different. By definition this type of EMA is calculated as a ratio of EMA of price*weight / EMA of weight. And the results are very different and the two should be considered as completely different types of averages. The higher than EMA to price changes responsiveness when the ranges increase remains in this EMA too and in those cases this EMA is clearly leading the "regular" EMA. This version includes double smoothing.
Double Smoothed Wilders EMA - DSWEMA
Welles Wilder was frequently using one "special" case of EMA (Exponential Moving Average) that is due to that fact (that he used it) sometimes called Wilder's EMA. This version is adding double smoothing to Wilder's EMA in order to make it "faster" (it is more responsive to market prices than the original) and is still keeping very smooth values.
Double Weighted Moving Average - DWMA
Double weighted moving average is an LWMA (Linear Weighted Moving Average). Instead of doing one cycle for calculating the LWMA, the indicator is made to cycle the loop 2 times. That produces a smoother values than the original LWMA
Exponential Moving Average - EMA
The EMA places more significance on recent data points and moves closer to price than the SMA ( Simple Moving Average ). It reacts faster to volatility due to its emphasis on recent data and is known for its ability to give greater weight to recent and more relevant data. The EMA is therefore seen as an enhancement over the SMA .
Fast Exponential Moving Average - FEMA
An Exponential Moving Average with a short look-back period.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average - FRAMA
The Fractal Adaptive Moving Average by John Ehlers is an intelligent adaptive Moving Average which takes the importance of price changes into account and follows price closely enough to display significant moves whilst remaining flat if price ranges. The FRAMA does this by dynamically adjusting the look-back period based on the market's fractal geometry.
Generalized DEMA - GDEMA
The double exponential moving average (DEMA), was developed by Patrick Mulloy in an attempt to reduce the amount of lag time found in traditional moving averages. It was first introduced in the February 1994 issue of the magazine Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in Mulloy's article "Smoothing Data with Faster Moving Averages.". Instead of using fixed multiplication factor in the final DEMA formula, the generalized version allows you to change it. By varying the "volume factor" form 0 to 1 you apply different multiplications and thus producing DEMA with different "speed" - the higher the volume factor is the "faster" the DEMA will be (but also the slope of it will be less smooth). The volume factor is limited in the calculation to 1 since any volume factor that is larger than 1 is increasing the overshooting to the extent that some volume factors usage makes the indicator unusable.
Generalized Double DEMA - GDDEMA
The double exponential moving average (DEMA), was developed by Patrick Mulloy in an attempt to reduce the amount of lag time found in traditional moving averages. It was first introduced in the February 1994 issue of the magazine Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities in Mulloy's article "Smoothing Data with Faster Moving Averages''. This is an extension of the Generalized DEMA using Tim Tillsons (the inventor of T3) idea, and is using GDEMA of GDEMA for calculation (which is the "middle step" of T3 calculation). Since there are no versions showing that middle step, this version covers that too. The result is smoother than Generalized DEMA, but is less smooth than T3 - one has to do some experimenting in order to find the optimal way to use it, but in any case, since it is "faster" than the T3 (Tim Tillson T3) and still smooth, it looks like a good compromise between speed and smoothness.
Hull Moving Average (Type 1) - HMA1
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses SMA for smoothing.
Hull Moving Average (Type 2) - HMA2
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses EMA for smoothing.
Hull Moving Average (Type 3) - HMA3
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses LWMA for smoothing.
Hull Moving Average (Type 4) - HMA4
Alan Hull's HMA makes use of weighted moving averages to prioritize recent values and greatly reduce lag whilst maintaining the smoothness of a traditional Moving Average. For this reason, it's seen as a well-suited Moving Average for identifying entry points. This version uses SMMA for smoothing.
IE /2 - Early T3 by Tim Tilson and T3 new
The T3 moving average is a type of technical indicator used in financial analysis to identify trends in price movements. It is similar to the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), but uses a different smoothing algorithm.
The T3 moving average is calculated using a series of exponential moving averages that are designed to filter out noise and smooth the data. The resulting smoothed data is then weighted with a non-linear function to produce a final output that is more responsive to changes in trend direction.
The T3 moving average can be customized by adjusting the length of the moving average, as well as the weighting function used to smooth the data. It is commonly used in conjunction with other technical indicators as part of a larger trading strategy.
Integral of Linear Regression Slope - ILRS
A Moving Average where the slope of a linear regression line is simply integrated as it is fitted in a moving window of length N (natural numbers in maths) across the data. The derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. ILRS is not the same as a SMA ( Simple Moving Average ) of length N, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average - KAMA
Developed by Perry Kaufman, Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) is a moving average designed to account for market noise or volatility. KAMA will closely follow prices when the price swings are relatively small and the noise is low.
Leader Exponential Moving Average
The Leader EMA was created by Giorgos E. Siligardos who created a Moving Average which was able to eliminate lag altogether whilst maintaining some smoothness. It was first described during his research paper "MACD Leader" where he applied this to the MACD to improve its signals and remove its lagging issue. This filter uses his leading MACD's "modified EMA" and can be used as a zero lag filter.
Linear Regression Value - LSMA ( Least Squares Moving Average )
LSMA as a Moving Average is based on plotting the end point of the linear regression line. It compares the current value to the prior value and a determination is made of a possible trend, eg. the linear regression line is pointing up or down.
Linear Weighted Moving Average - LWMA
LWMA reacts to price quicker than the SMA and EMA . Although it's similar to the Simple Moving Average , the difference is that a weight coefficient is multiplied to the price which means the most recent price has the highest weighting, and each prior price has progressively less weight. The weights drop in a linear fashion.
McGinley Dynamic
John McGinley created this Moving Average to track prices better than traditional Moving Averages. It does this by incorporating an automatic adjustment factor into its formula, which speeds (or slows) the indicator in trending, or ranging, markets.
McNicholl EMA
Dennis McNicholl developed this Moving Average to use as his center line for his "Better Bollinger Bands" indicator and was successful because it responded better to volatility changes over the standard SMA and managed to avoid common whipsaws.
Non-lag moving average
The Non Lag Moving average follows price closely and gives very quick signals as well as early signals of price change. As a standalone Moving Average, it should not be used on its own, but as an additional confluence tool for early signals.
Ocean NMA Moving Average - ONMAMA
Created by Jim Sloman, the NMA is a moving average that automatically adjusts to volatility without being programmed to do so. For more info, read his guide "Ocean Theory, an Introduction"
One More Moving Average (OMA)
The One More Moving Average (OMA) is a technical indicator that calculates a series of Jurik-style moving averages in order to reduce noise and provide smoother price data. It uses six exponential moving averages to generate the final value, with the length of the moving averages determined by an adaptive algorithm that adjusts to the current market conditions. The algorithm calculates the average period by comparing the signal to noise ratio and using this value to determine the length of the moving averages. The resulting values are used to generate the final value of the OMA, which can be used to identify trends and potential changes in trend direction.
Parabolic Weighted Moving Average
The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation of the Linear Weighted Moving Average . The Linear Weighted Moving Average calculates the average by assigning different weights to each element in its calculation. The Parabolic Weighted Moving Average is a variation that allows weights to be changed to form a parabolic curve. It is done simply by using the Power parameter of this indicator.
Probability Density Function Moving Average - PDFMA
Probability density function based MA is a sort of weighted moving average that uses probability density function to calculate the weights. By its nature it is similar to a lot of digital filters.
Quadratic Regression Moving Average - QRMA
A quadratic regression is the process of finding the equation of the parabola that best fits a set of data. This moving average is an obscure concept that was posted to Forex forums in around 2008.
Regularized EMA - REMA
The regularized exponential moving average (REMA) by Chris Satchwell is a variation on the EMA (see Exponential Moving Average) designed to be smoother but not introduce too much extra lag.
Range Weighted EMA - RWEMA
This indicator is a variation of the range weighted EMA. The variation comes from a possible need to make that indicator a bit less "noisy" when it comes to slope changes. The method used for calculating this variation is the method described by Lee Leibfarth in his article "Trading With An Adaptive Price Zone".
Recursive Moving Trendline
Dennis Meyers's Recursive Moving Trendline uses a recursive (repeated application of a rule) polynomial fit, a technique that uses a small number of past values estimations of price and today's price to predict tomorrow's price.
Simple Decycler - SDEC
The Ehlers Simple Decycler study is a virtually zero-lag technical indicator proposed by John F. Ehlers. The original idea behind this study (and several others created by John F. Ehlers) is that market data can be considered a continuum of cycle periods with different cycle amplitudes. Thus, trending periods can be considered segments of longer cycles, or, in other words, low-frequency segments. Applying the right filter might help identify these segments.
Simple Loxx Moving Average - SLMA
A three stage moving average combining an adaptive EMA, a Kalman Filter, and a Kauffman adaptive filter.
Simple Moving Average - SMA
The SMA calculates the average of a range of prices by adding recent prices and then dividing that figure by the number of time periods in the calculation average. It is the most basic Moving Average which is seen as a reliable tool for starting off with Moving Average studies. As reliable as it may be, the basic moving average will work better when it's enhanced into an EMA .
Sine Weighted Moving Average
The Sine Weighted Moving Average assigns the most weight at the middle of the data set. It does this by weighting from the first half of a Sine Wave Cycle and the most weighting is given to the data in the middle of that data set. The Sine WMA closely resembles the TMA (Triangular Moving Average).
Smoothed LWMA - SLWMA
A smoothed version of the LWMA
Smoothed Moving Average - SMMA
The Smoothed Moving Average is similar to the Simple Moving Average ( SMA ), but aims to reduce noise rather than reduce lag. SMMA takes all prices into account and uses a long lookback period. Due to this, it's seen as an accurate yet laggy Moving Average.
Smoother
The Smoother filter is a faster-reacting smoothing technique which generates considerably less lag than the SMMA ( Smoothed Moving Average ). It gives earlier signals but can also create false signals due to its earlier reactions. This filter is sometimes wrongly mistaken for the superior Jurik Smoothing algorithm.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother filter uses John Ehlers’s “Super Smoother” which consists of a Two pole Butterworth filter combined with a 2-bar SMA ( Simple Moving Average ) that suppresses the 22050 Hz Nyquist frequency: A characteristic of a sampler, which converts a continuous function or signal into a discrete sequence.
Three-pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the Two pole Butterworth) are both superior alternatives to the EMA and SMA . They aim at producing less lag whilst maintaining accuracy. The 2 pole filter will give you a better approximation for price, whereas the 3 pole filter has superior smoothing.
Three-pole Ehlers smoother
The 3 pole Ehlers smoother works almost as close to price as the above mentioned 3 Pole Ehlers Butterworth. It acts as a strong baseline for signals but removes some noise. Side by side, it hardly differs from the Three Pole Ehlers Butterworth but when examined closely, it has better overshoot reduction compared to the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth.
Triangular Moving Average - TMA
The TMA is similar to the EMA but uses a different weighting scheme. Exponential and weighted Moving Averages will assign weight to the most recent price data. Simple moving averages will assign the weight equally across all the price data. With a TMA (Triangular Moving Average), it is double smoother (averaged twice) so the majority of the weight is assigned to the middle portion of the data.
Triple Exponential Moving Average - TEMA
The TEMA uses multiple EMA calculations as well as subtracting lag to create a tool which can be used for scalping pullbacks. As it follows price closely, its signals are considered very noisy and should only be used in extremely fast-paced trading conditions.
Two-pole Ehlers Butterworth
The 2 pole Ehlers Butterworth (as well as the three pole Butterworth mentioned above) is another filter that cuts out the noise and follows the price closely. The 2 pole is seen as a faster, leading filter over the 3 pole and follows price a bit more closely. Analysts will utilize both a 2 pole and a 3 pole Butterworth on the same chart using the same period, but having both on chart allows its crosses to be traded.
Two-pole Ehlers smoother
A smoother version of the Two pole Ehlers Butterworth. This filter is the faster version out of the 3 pole Ehlers Butterworth. It does a decent job at cutting out market noise whilst emphasizing a closer following to price over the 3 pole Ehlers .
Variable Index Dynamic Average - VIDYA
Variable Index Dynamic Average Technical Indicator ( VIDYA ) was developed by Tushar Chande. It is an original method of calculating the Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) with the dynamically changing period of averaging.
Variable Moving Average - VMA
The Variable Moving Average (VMA) is a study that uses an Exponential Moving Average being able to automatically adjust its smoothing factor according to the market volatility.
Volume Weighted EMA - VEMA
An EMA that uses a volume and price weighted calculation instead of the standard price input.
Volume Weighted Moving Average - VWMA
A Volume Weighted Moving Average is a moving average where more weight is given to bars with heavy volume than with light volume. Thus the value of the moving average will be closer to where most trading actually happened than it otherwise would be without being volume weighted.
Zero-Lag DEMA - Zero Lag Double Exponential Moving Average
John Ehlers's Zero Lag DEMA's aim is to eliminate the inherent lag associated with all trend following indicators which average a price over time. Because this is a Double Exponential Moving Average with Zero Lag, it has a tendency to overshoot and create a lot of false signals for swing trading. It can however be used for quick scalping or as a secondary indicator for confluence.
Zero-Lag Moving Average
The Zero Lag Moving Average is described by its creator, John Ehlers , as a Moving Average with absolutely no delay. And it's for this reason that this filter will cause a lot of abrupt signals which will not be ideal for medium to long-term traders. This filter is designed to follow price as close as possible whilst de-lagging data instead of basing it on regular data. The way this is done is by attempting to remove the cumulative effect of the Moving Average.
Zero-Lag TEMA - Zero Lag Triple Exponential Moving Average
Just like the Zero Lag DEMA , this filter will give you the fastest signals out of all the Zero Lag Moving Averages. This is useful for scalping but dangerous for medium to long-term traders, especially during market Volatility and news events. Having no lag, this filter also has no smoothing in its signals and can cause some very bizarre behavior when applied to certain indicators.
█ Volatility Goldie Locks Zone
The Goldie Locks Zone volatility filter is the standard first-pass filter used in all advanced GKD backtests (Complex, Super Complex, and Full GKd). This filter requires the price to fall within a range determined by multiples of volatility. The Goldie Locks Zone is separate from the core Baseline and utilizes its own moving average with Loxx's Exotic Source Types you can read about below.
On the chart, you will find green and red dots positioned at the top, indicating whether a candle qualifies for a long or short trade respectively. Additionally, green and red triangles are located at the bottom of the chart, signifying whether the trigger has crossed up or down and qualifies within the Goldie Locks zone. The Goldie Locks zone is represented by a white color on the mean line, indicating low volatility levels that are not suitable for trading.
█ Volatility Types Included in the Baseline Optimizer
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users can also adjust the multiplier values in the settings.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Various volatility estimators and indicators that investors and traders can use to measure the dispersion or volatility of a financial instrument's price. Each estimator has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of estimator should depend on the specific needs and circumstances of the user.
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
For this indicator, a manual recreation of the quantile function in Pine Script is used. This is so users have a full inside view into how this is calculated.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
█ Loxx's Expanded Source Types Included in Baseline Optimizer
This indicator allows you to select from 33 source types. They are as follows:
Close
Open
High
Low
Median
Typical
Weighted
Average
Average Median Body
Trend Biased
Trend Biased (Extreme)
HA Close
HA Open
HA High
HA Low
HA Median
HA Typical
HA Weighted
HA Average
HA Average Median Body
HA Trend Biased
HA Trend Biased (Extreme)
HAB Close
HAB Open
HAB High
HAB Low
HAB Median
HAB Typical
HAB Weighted
HAB Average
HAB Average Median Body
HAB Trend Biased
HAB Trend Biased (Extreme)
What are Heiken Ashi "better" candles?
Heiken Ashi "better" candles are a modified version of the standard Heiken Ashi candles, which are a popular charting technique used in technical analysis. Heiken Ashi candles help traders identify trends and potential reversal points by smoothing out price data and reducing market noise. The "better formula" was proposed by Sebastian Schmidt in an article published by BNP Paribas in Warrants & Zertifikate, a German magazine, in August 2004. The aim of this formula is to further improve the smoothing of the Heiken Ashi chart and enhance its effectiveness in identifying trends and reversals.
Standard Heiken Ashi candles are calculated using the following formulas:
Heiken Ashi Close = (Open + High + Low + Close) / 4
Heiken Ashi Open = (Previous Heiken Ashi Open + Previous Heiken Ashi Close) / 2
Heiken Ashi High = Max (High, Heiken Ashi Open, Heiken Ashi Close)
Heiken Ashi Low = Min (Low, Heiken Ashi Open, Heiken Ashi Close)
The "better formula" modifies the standard Heiken Ashi calculation by incorporating additional smoothing, which can help reduce noise and make it easier to identify trends and reversals. The modified formulas for Heiken Ashi "better" candles are as follows:
Better Heiken Ashi Close = (Open + High + Low + Close) / 4
Better Heiken Ashi Open = (Previous Better Heiken Ashi Open + Previous Better Heiken Ashi Close) / 2
Better Heiken Ashi High = Max (High, Better Heiken Ashi Open, Better Heiken Ashi Close)
Better Heiken Ashi Low = Min (Low, Better Heiken Ashi Open, Better Heiken Ashi Close)
Smoothing Factor = 2 / (N + 1), where N is the chosen period for smoothing
Smoothed Better Heiken Ashi Open = (Better Heiken Ashi Open * Smoothing Factor) + (Previous Smoothed Better Heiken Ashi Open * (1 - Smoothing Factor))
Smoothed Better Heiken Ashi Close = (Better Heiken Ashi Close * Smoothing Factor) + (Previous Smoothed Better Heiken Ashi Close * (1 - Smoothing Factor))
The smoothed Better Heiken Ashi Open and Close values are then used to calculate the smoothed Better Heiken Ashi High and Low values, resulting in "better" candles that provide a clearer representation of the market trend and potential reversal points.
Heiken Ashi "better" candles, as mentioned previously, provide a clearer representation of market trends and potential reversal points by reducing noise and smoothing out price data. When using these candles in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators, traders can gain valuable insights into market behavior and make more informed decisions.
To effectively use Heiken Ashi "better" candles in your trading strategy, consider the following tips:
-Trend Identification: Heiken Ashi "better" candles can help you identify the prevailing trend in the market. When the majority of the candles are green (or another color, depending on your chart settings) and there are no or few lower wicks, it may indicate a strong uptrend. Conversely, when the majority of the candles are red (or another color) and there are no or few upper wicks, it may signal a strong downtrend.
-Trend Reversals: Look for potential trend reversals when a change in the color of the candles occurs, especially when accompanied by longer wicks. For example, if a green candle with a long lower wick is followed by a red candle, it could indicate a bearish reversal. Similarly, a red candle with a long upper wick followed by a green candle may suggest a bullish reversal.
-Support and Resistance: You can use Heiken Ashi "better" candles to identify potential support and resistance levels. When the candles are consistently moving in one direction and then suddenly change color with longer wicks, it could indicate the presence of a support or resistance level.
-Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: Using Heiken Ashi "better" candles can help you manage risk by determining optimal stop-loss and take-profit levels. For instance, you can place your stop-loss below the low of the most recent green candle in an uptrend or above the high of the most recent red candle in a downtrend.
-Confirming Signals: Heiken Ashi "better" candles should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, oscillators, or chart patterns, to confirm signals and improve the accuracy of your analysis.
In this implementation, you have the choice of AMA, KAMA, or T3 smoothing. These are as follows:
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA)
The Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) is a type of adaptive moving average used in technical analysis to smooth out price fluctuations and identify trends. The KAMA adjusts its smoothing factor based on the market's volatility, making it more responsive in volatile markets and smoother in calm markets. The KAMA is calculated using three different efficiency ratios that determine the appropriate smoothing factor for the current market conditions. These ratios are based on the noise level of the market, the speed at which the market is moving, and the length of the moving average. The KAMA is a popular choice among traders who prefer to use adaptive indicators to identify trends and potential reversals.
Adaptive Moving Average
The Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) is a type of moving average that adjusts its sensitivity to price movements based on market conditions. It uses a ratio between the current price and the highest and lowest prices over a certain lookback period to determine its level of smoothing. The AMA can help reduce lag and increase responsiveness to changes in trend direction, making it useful for traders who want to follow trends while avoiding false signals. The AMA is calculated by multiplying a smoothing constant with the difference between the current price and the previous AMA value, then adding the result to the previous AMA value.
T3
The T3 moving average is a type of technical indicator used in financial analysis to identify trends in price movements. It is similar to the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), but uses a different smoothing algorithm.
The T3 moving average is calculated using a series of exponential moving averages that are designed to filter out noise and smooth the data. The resulting smoothed data is then weighted with a non-linear function to produce a final output that is more responsive to changes in trend direction.
The T3 moving average can be customized by adjusting the length of the moving average, as well as the weighting function used to smooth the data. It is commonly used in conjunction with other technical indicators as part of a larger trading strategy.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Kase Peak Oscillator
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Baseline Optimizer as shown on the chart above
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest:
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest:
GKD-C Kase Peak Oscillator [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C Kase Peak Oscillator is a Metamorphosis module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-C Kase Peak Oscillator
The Kase Peak Oscillator is a technical analysis tool developed by Cynthia Kase, a renowned market analyst and trader. It is used by traders and investors to identify trading signals and potential trend reversals in financial markets.
The Kase Peak Oscillator utilizes a unique approach to measuring momentum and trend strength. It is calculated by measuring the difference between the highest high and lowest low prices over a set period of time and then smoothing these values using a moving average. This smoothing reduces the impact of market noise and helps to identify clearer trends.
The indicator is similar to other momentum oscillators, but its calculation is distinct in several ways. One significant feature is that the Kase Peak Oscillator generates data points that are not bounded, meaning that the indicator can take on positive and negative values regardless of market direction. This enables traders to identify potential buy and sell signals across different market conditions.
Traders use the Kase Peak Oscillator primarily to identify potential trading opportunities and strategy decisions. When the oscillator crosses above a certain level, traders view it as a bullish signal, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, when the oscillator crosses below a specific level, traders see it as a bearish signal, indicating a potential selling opportunity.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Kase Peak Oscillator as shown in the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Fisher Transform, Universal Oscillator, Aroon, Vortex .. combined
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest:
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest:
GKD-C Detrended Price Oscillator [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C Detrended Price Oscillator is a Metamorphosis module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-C Detrended Price Oscillator
The Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) is a technical analysis tool used by traders and analysts to identify cycles and trends in price movements. It aims to remove the long-term trend from the price data and focus on shorter-term cycles.
The DPO calculates the difference between a chosen period's closing price and the historical moving average of that price. The moving average used is typically a simple moving average (SMA) or an exponential moving average (EMA). The resulting values represent the deviation from the long-term trend.
To calculate the DPO, follow these steps:
1. Determine the desired period for analysis (e.g., 20 days).
2. Calculate the center point of this period by taking (period length / 2) + 1 (e.g., (20 / 2) + 1 = 11).
3. Calculate the simple moving average (SMA) of the price over the chosen period.
4. Shift the moving average backward by the center point calculated in step 2. This creates a displaced moving average.
5. Subtract the displaced moving average from the price at the corresponding period to obtain the DPO value.
The resulting DPO values oscillate above and below the zero line. Traders often use the DPO to identify cycles, overbought or oversold conditions, and potential reversal points. When the DPO crosses above the zero line, it suggests that the price may be in an uptrend, while crossing below indicates a potential downtrend.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Detrended Price Oscillator as shown in the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Fisher Transform, Universal Oscillator, Aroon, Vortex .. combined
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest:
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest:
GKD-C Adaptive-Lookback Stochastic [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C Adaptive-Lookback Stochastic is a Metamorphosis module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-C Adaptive-Lookback Stochastic
The Adaptive-Lookback Stochastic uses a swing pivot lookback algorithm to adjust the periiod input bar-bar-bar thereby converting the regular Stochasitc oscillator into an adaptive Stochatic oscillator.
What is the Adaptive Lookback Period?
The adaptive lookback period is a technique used in technical analysis to adjust the period of an indicator based on changes in market conditions. This technique is particularly useful in volatile or rapidly changing markets where a fixed period may not be optimal for detecting trends or signals.
The concept of the adaptive lookback period is relatively simple. By adjusting the lookback period based on changes in market conditions, traders can more accurately identify trends and signals. This can help traders to enter and exit trades at the right time and improve the profitability of their trading strategies.
The adaptive lookback period works by identifying potential swing points in the market. Once these points are identified, the lookback period is calculated based on the number of swings and a speed parameter. The swing count parameter determines the number of swings that must occur before the lookback period is adjusted. The speed parameter controls the rate at which the lookback period is adjusted, with higher values indicating a more rapid adjustment.
The adaptive lookback period can be applied to a wide range of technical indicators, including moving averages, oscillators, and trendlines. By adjusting the period of these indicators based on changes in market conditions, traders can reduce the impact of noise and false signals, leading to more profitable trades.
The adaptive lookback period is a powerful technique for traders and analysts looking to optimize their technical indicators. By adjusting the period based on changes in market conditions, traders can more accurately identify trends and signals, leading to more profitable trades. While there are various ways to implement the adaptive lookback period, the basic concept remains the same, and traders can adapt and customize the technique to suit their individual needs and trading styles.
What is the Stochastic Oscillator?
The Stochastic Oscillator is a popular technical analysis indicator developed by George Lane in the 1950s. It is a momentum indicator that compares a security's closing price to its price range over a specified period. The main idea behind the Stochastic Oscillator is that, in an upward trending market, prices tend to close near their high, while in a downward trending market, prices tend to close near their low. The Stochastic Oscillator ranges from 0 to 100 and is primarily used to identify overbought and oversold conditions or potential trend reversals.
The Stochastic Oscillator is calculated using the following formula:
%K = ((C - L14) / (H14 - L14)) * 100
Where:
%K: The Stochastic Oscillator value.
C: The most recent closing price.
L14: The lowest price of the last 14 periods (or any other chosen period).
H14: The highest price of the last 14 periods (or any other chosen period).
Additionally, a moving average of %K, called %D, is calculated to provide a signal line:
%D = Simple Moving Average of %K over 'n' periods
The Stochastic Oscillator generates signals based on the following conditions:
1. Overbought and Oversold Levels: The Stochastic Oscillator typically uses 80 and 20 as overbought and oversold levels, respectively. When the oscillator is above 80, it is considered overbought, indicating that the market may be overvalued and a price decline is possible. When the oscillator is below 20, it is considered oversold, indicating that the market may be undervalued and a price rise is possible.
2. Bullish and Bearish Divergences: A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes a lower low, but the Stochastic Oscillator makes a higher low, suggesting a potential trend reversal to the upside. A bearish divergence occurs when the price makes a higher high, but the Stochastic Oscillator makes a lower high, suggesting a potential trend reversal to the downside.
3. Crosses: Buy signals are generated when %K crosses above %D, indicating upward momentum. Sell signals are generated when %K crosses below %D, indicating downward momentum.
The Stochastic Oscillator is commonly used in combination with other technical analysis tools to confirm signals and improve the accuracy of predictions.
When using the Stochastic Oscillator, it's important to consider a few best practices and additional insights:
1. Confirmation with other indicators: While the Stochastic Oscillator can provide valuable insights into potential trend reversals and overbought/oversold conditions, it is generally more effective when used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). This can help confirm signals and reduce the chances of false signals or whipsaws.
2. Timeframes: The Stochastic Oscillator can be applied to various timeframes, such as daily, weekly, or intraday charts. Adjusting the lookback period for the calculation can also alter the sensitivity of the indicator. A shorter lookback period will make the oscillator more sensitive to price movements, while a longer lookback period will make it less sensitive. Traders should choose a timeframe and lookback period that aligns with their trading strategy and risk tolerance.
3. Variations: There are two primary variations of the Stochastic Oscillator: Fast Stochastic and Slow Stochastic. The Fast Stochastic uses the original %K and %D calculations, while the Slow Stochastic smooths %K with an additional moving average and uses this smoothed %K as the new %D. The Slow Stochastic is generally considered to generate fewer false signals due to the additional smoothing.
4. Overbought and Oversold: It's important to remember that overbought and oversold conditions can persist for an extended period, especially during strong trends. This means that the Stochastic Oscillator alone should not be relied upon as a definitive buy or sell signal. Instead, traders should wait for additional confirmation from other indicators or price action before entering or exiting a trade.
The Stochastic Oscillator is a valuable momentum indicator that helps traders identify potential trend reversals and overbought/oversold conditions in the market. However, it is most effective when used in combination with other technical analysis tools and should be adapted to suit the specific needs of the individual trader's strategy and risk tolerance.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Composite RSI
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Fisher Transform, Universal Oscillator, Aroon, Vortex .. combined
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, GKD-M, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest:
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest:
GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist is a Metamorphosis module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-M Accuracy Alchemist
What is the Accuracy Alchemist?
The Accuracy Alchemist is designed to process up to 10 GKD-C indicators and create a compound signal that can be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest. It achieves this by applying an individual Solo Confirmation Simple backtest to each GKD-C indicator provided. The compound signal is derived from the cumulative accuracy rate of each candle within a specified date range.
To illustrate this process, consider the following scenario:
The Fisher Transform indicator has a 65% win rate for long positions on the current ticker.
The Vortex indicator has a 45% success rate on the current candle.
Suppose a long signal is generated by the Vortex indicator. However, this signal is disregarded because its accuracy is lower than that of the Fisher Transform. Now, imagine that the subsequent candle produces a long signal from the Fisher Transform indicator. This signal will be exported to the backtest. The GKD-C indicator that exhibits the highest accuracy for the current candle is chosen to generate the signal. The dominant indicator, determined by its accuracy, will always be used to generate signals. However, it is important to note that the current dominant indicator might not retain its dominance in the future if its accuracy rate falls below that of other indicators connected within the Accuracy Alchemist indicator.
The Accuracy Alchemist provides a comprehensive table that displays the dominant indicator based on accuracy, highlighted in green for the highest long accuracy rate and in red for the highest short accuracy rate. Additionally, the table presents the cumulative long and short accuracy rates for all indicators.
The functionality of the Accuracy Alchemist extends to several GKD-BT backtests, allowing for seamless integration. These backtests include:
-Solo Confirmation Simple
-Solo Confirmation Complex
-Solo Confirmation Super Complex
-Full GKD (as a Confirmation 1 indicator only)
-Confirmation Stack (as a Confirmation 1 indicator only)
By incorporating the Accuracy Alchemist, you gain the ability to evaluate and compare GKD-C Confirmation indicators within your full GKD trading system. It serves as an ideal tool to assess the performance of different confirmation indicators and aids in the selection process for determining which indicators to incorporate into your trading strategy.
Take Profit and Stoploss
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses, where each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users have the flexibility to adjust the multiplier values in the settings to suit their preferences. Accuracy Alchemist tests the accuracy of GKD-C Confirmation indicators and therefore has only 1 take profit and 1 stoploss. You can adjust the multipliers of both in the settings
Setting up Accuracy Alchemist
To use this indicator, you must import GKD-C Confirmation indicators and then activate them in the Accuracy Alchemist settings. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from a GKD-C indicator and then activate it by checking the box next to the import. See below:
Volatility Types Included
17 types of volatility are included in this indicator
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
8. Metamorphosis - a technical indicator that produces a compound signal from the combination of other GKD indicators*
*(not part of the NNFX algorithm)
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
What is an Metamorphosis indicator?
The concept of a metamorphosis indicator involves the integration of two or more GKD indicators to generate a compound signal. This is achieved by evaluating the accuracy of each indicator and selecting the signal from the indicator with the highest accuracy. As an illustration, let's consider a scenario where we calculate the accuracy of 10 indicators and choose the signal from the indicator that demonstrates the highest accuracy.
The resulting output from the metamorphosis indicator can then be utilized in a GKD-BT backtest by occupying a slot that aligns with the purpose of the metamorphosis indicator. The slot can be a GKD-B, GKD-C, or GKD-E slot, depending on the specific requirements and objectives of the indicator. This allows for seamless integration and utilization of the compound signal within the GKD-BT framework.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
6. GKD-M - Metamorphosis module (Metamorphosis, Number 8 in the NNFX algorithm, but not part of the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Composite RSI
Confirmation 2: uf2018
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Metamorphosis: Fisher Transform, Universal Oscillator, Aroon, Vortex .. combined
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to creat your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algo that will only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest:
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest:
GKD-C Composite RSI [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-C Composite RSI is a Confirmation module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ What is the Composite RSI?
The Composite Relative Strength Index (Composite RSI) is a sophisticated adaptation of the traditional Relative Strength Index (RSI). This advanced indicator combines the benefits of smoothing techniques with the relative strength index to offer a more detailed perspective of market conditions. To fully comprehend the scope of Composite RSI, it's crucial to first understand the traditional RSI and its limitations.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used momentum oscillator that gauges the speed and change of price movements. Developed by J. Welles Wilder, the RSI is a scale from 0 to 100, with high and low levels typically set at 70 and 30, respectively. When the RSI climbs above 70, the asset is often considered overbought, suggesting a potential price decrease. Conversely, when the RSI falls below 30, the asset is deemed oversold, indicating a potential price increase.
While the RSI is beneficial in various market conditions, it is not without its limitations. One of the main criticisms of the traditional RSI is that it can produce false signals during trending markets. This is primarily due to the fact that the RSI only considers a single timeframe and does not account for volatility in the market.
The Composite RSI aims to address these limitations. This advanced indicator uses smoothing techniques and depth analysis to provide a more nuanced view of the market. As the provided pseudocode suggests, the Composite RSI calculates the Relative Strength (RS) over a given period and a certain depth, incorporating the average upward and downward changes in the price.
By using the Composite RSI, traders can better interpret market conditions and make more informed decisions. Its application of smoothing techniques helps to filter out market noise and reduce the likelihood of false signals. Furthermore, by considering multiple periods (the depth), the Composite RSI provides a more comprehensive view of market momentum.
While the traditional RSI remains a valuable tool in technical analysis, the Composite RSI offers a more nuanced and comprehensive approach to assessing market conditions. By incorporating smoothing techniques and depth analysis, the Composite RSI provides a more reliable and robust measure of market momentum, enhancing the decision-making process for traders and investors alike.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full GKD Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Composite RSI
Confirmation 2: uf2018 as shown
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Connecting to Backtests
All GKD indicators are chained indicators meaning you export the value of the indicators to specialized backtest to create your GKD trading system. Each indicator contains a proprietary signal generation algorithm that only work with GKD backtests. You can find these backtests using the links below.
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest:
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest:
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest:
GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest is a Backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest
The Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest module allows users to perform backtesting on Long and Short signals from the confluence between GKD-C Confirmation 1 and GKD-C Confirmation 2 indicators. This module encompasses two types of backtests: Trading and Full. The Trading backtest permits users to evaluate individual trades, whether Long or Short, one at a time. Conversely, the Full backtest allows users to analyze either Longs or Shorts separately by toggling between them in the settings, enabling the examination of results for each signal type. The Trading backtest emulates actual trading conditions, while the Full backtest assesses all signals, regardless of being Long or Short.
Additionally, this backtest module provides the option to test using indicators with 1 to 3 take profits and 1 stop loss. The Trading backtest allows for the use of 1 to 3 take profits, while the Full backtest is limited to 1 take profit. The Trading backtest also offers the capability to apply a trailing take profit.
In terms of the percentage of trade removed at each take profit, this backtest module has the following hardcoded values:
Take profit 1: 50% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 2: 25% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 3: 25% of the trade is removed.
Stop loss: 100% of the trade is removed.
After each take profit is achieved, the stop loss level is adjusted. When take profit 1 is reached, the stop loss is moved to the entry point. Similarly, when take profit 2 is reached, the stop loss is shifted to take profit 1. The trailing take profit feature comes into play after take profit 2 or take profit 3, depending on the number of take profits selected in the settings. The trailing take profit is always activated on the final take profit when 2 or more take profits are chosen.
The backtest module also offers the capability to restrict by a specific date range, allowing for simulated forward testing based on past data. Additionally, users have the option to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. It is also possible to activate alerts and toggle sections of the trading panel on or off. On the chart, historical take profit and stop loss levels are represented by horizontal lines overlaid for reference.
To utilize this strategy, follow these steps:
1. Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation 1 Indicator to "GKD New."
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation 1 module into the GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation 1."
3. Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation 2 Indicator to "GKD New."
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation 2 module into the GKD-BT Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation 2."
█ Giga Confirmation Stack Backtest Entries
Entries are generated from the confluence of a GKD-C Confirmation 1 and GKD-C Confirmation 2 indicators. The Confirmation 1 gives the signal and the Confirmation 2 indicator filters or "approves" the the Confirmation 1 signal. If Confirmation 1 gives a long signal and Confirmation 2 shows a downtrend, then the long signal is rejected. If Confirmation 1 gives a long signal and Confirmation 2 shows an uptrend, then the long signal is approved and sent to the backtest execution engine.
█ Volatility Types Included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users can also adjust the multiplier values in the settings.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Confiramtion Stack Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Fisher Transform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: uf2018 as shown on the chart above
Continuation: Vortex
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest is a Backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest
The Giga Stacks Backtest module allows users to perform backtesting on Long and Short signals from the confluence of GKD-B Baseline, GKD-C Confirmation, and GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicators. This module encompasses two types of backtests: Trading and Full. The Trading backtest permits users to evaluate individual trades, whether Long or Short, one at a time. Conversely, the Full backtest allows users to analyze either Longs or Shorts separately by toggling between them in the settings, enabling the examination of results for each signal type. The Trading backtest emulates actual trading conditions, while the Full backtest assesses all signals, regardless of being Long or Short.
Additionally, this backtest module provides the option to test using indicators with 1 to 3 take profits and 1 stop loss. The Trading backtest allows for the use of 1 to 3 take profits, while the Full backtest is limited to 1 take profit. The Trading backtest also offers the capability to apply a trailing take profit.
In terms of the percentage of trade removed at each take profit, this backtest module has the following hardcoded values:
Take profit 1: 50% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 2: 25% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 3: 25% of the trade is removed.
Stop loss: 100% of the trade is removed.
After each take profit is achieved, the stop loss level is adjusted. When take profit 1 is reached, the stop loss is moved to the entry point. Similarly, when take profit 2 is reached, the stop loss is shifted to take profit 1. The trailing take profit feature comes into play after take profit 2 or take profit 3, depending on the number of take profits selected in the settings. The trailing take profit is always activated on the final take profit when 2 or more take profits are chosen.
The backtest module also offers the capability to restrict by a specific date range, allowing for simulated forward testing based on past data. Additionally, users have the option to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. It is also possible to activate alerts and toggle sections of the trading panel on or off. On the chart, historical take profit and stop loss levels are represented by horizontal lines overlaid for reference.
To utilize this strategy, follow these steps (where "Stack XX" denotes the number of the Stack):
GKD-B Baseline Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-B Baseline module into the GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest module setting named "Stack XX: Import GKD-C, GKD-B, or GKD-V."
GKD-V Volatility/Volume Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume module into the GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest module setting named "Stack XX: Import GKD-C, GKD-B, or GKD-V."
GKD-C Confirmation Import: 1) Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation Indicator to "GKD New."; 2) Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation module into the GKD-BT Giga Stacks Backtest module setting named "Stack XX: Import GKD-C, GKD-B, or GKD."
█ Giga Stacks Backtest Entries
Entries are generated form the confluence of up to six GKD-B Baseline, GKD-C Confirmation, and GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicators. Signals are generated when all Stacks reach uptrend or downtrend together.
Here's how this works. Assume we have the following Stacks and their respective trend on the current candle:
Stack 1 indicator is in uptreend
Stack 2 indicator is in downtrend
Stack 3 indicator is in uptreend
Stack 4 indicator is in uptreend
All stacks are in uptrend except for Stack 2. If Stack 2 reaches uptrend while Stacks 1, 3, and 4 stay in uptrend, then a long signal is generated. The last Stack to align with all other Stacks will generate a long or short signal.
█ Volatility Types Included
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users can also adjust the multiplier values in the settings.
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Stacks Backtest
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Vorext
Confirmation 2: Coppock Curve
Continuation: Fisher Transform
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest is a Backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest
The Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module enables users to backtest Full GKD Long and Short signals, allowing the creation of a comprehensive NNFX trading system consisting of two confirmation indicators, a baseline, a measure of volatility/volume, and continuations.
This module offers two types of backtests: Trading and Full. The Trading backtest allows users to evaluate individual Long and Short trades one by one. On the other hand, the Full backtest enables the analysis of Longs or Shorts separately by toggling between them in the settings, providing insights into the results for each signal type. The Trading backtest simulates actual trading conditions, while the Full backtest evaluates all signals regardless of their Long or Short nature.
Additionally, the backtest module allows testing with 1 to 3 take profits and 1 stop loss. The Trading backtest supports 1 to 3 take profits, while the Full backtest is limited to 1 take profit. The Trading backtest also includes a trailing take profit feature.
Regarding the percentage of trade removed at each take profit, the backtest module incorporates the following predefined values:
Take profit 1: 50% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 2: 25% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 3: 25% of the trade is removed.
Stop loss: 100% of the trade is removed.
After achieving each take profit, the stop loss level is adjusted accordingly. When take profit 1 is reached, the stop loss is moved to the entry point. Similarly, when take profit 2 is reached, the stop loss is shifted to take profit 1. The trailing take profit feature comes into effect after take profit 2 or take profit 3, depending on the number of take profits selected in the settings. The trailing take profit is always activated on the final take profit when 2 or more take profits are chosen.
The backtest module also provides the option to restrict testing to a specific date range, allowing for simulated forward testing using past data. Additionally, users can choose to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. It is also possible to activate alerts and toggle sections of the trading panel on or off. Historical take profit and stop loss levels are displayed as overlaid horizontal lines on the chart for reference.
To utilize this strategy, follow these steps:
1. GKD-B Baseline Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-B Baseline module into the GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-B Baseline."
2. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume module into the GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume."
3. Adjust the "Confirmation 1 Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation Indicator to "GKD New."
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation 1 module into the GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation 1."
5. Adjust the "Confirmation 2 Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation 2 Indicator to "GKD New."
6. GKD-C Confirmation 2 Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation 2 module into the GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation 2."
7. Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Continuation Indicator to "GKD New."
8. GKD-C Continuation Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Continuation module into the GKD-BT Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation."
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses, where each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users have the flexibility to adjust the multiplier values in the settings to suit their preferences.
In a future update, the Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest module will include the option to incorporate a GKD-E Exit indicator, completing the full trading strategy.
█ Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest Entries
Within this module, there are ten distinct types of entries available, which are outlined below:
Standard Entry
1-Candle Standard Entry
Baseline Entry
1-Candle Baseline Entry
Volatility/Volume Entry
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
Confirmation 2 Entry
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
PullBack Entry
Continuation Entry
Each of these entry types can generate either long or short signals, resulting in a total of 20 signal variations. The user has the flexibility to enable or disable specific entry types and choose which qualifying rules within each entry type are applied to price to determine the final long or short signal.
The following section provides an overview of the various entry types and their corresponding qualifying rules:
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Volatility/Volume agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Confirmation 2 agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
Confirmation 2 Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Baseline agrees
7. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation 2 gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSC2C Bars Back' prior
Next Candle
1b. Price retraced
2b. Confirmation 2 agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
5b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Confirmation 2 agrees
5b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, Confirmation 2 Entry, 1-Candle Confirmation 2 Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 2 agrees
█ Volatility Types Included
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Full Giga Kaleidoscope Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Vorext as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: Coppock Curve as shown on the chart above
Continuation: Fisher Transform as shown on the chart above
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest is a Backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest
The Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest module allows users to perform backtesting on Full GKD Long and Short signals using GKD-C confirmation indicators. These signals are further refined by GKD-B Baseline and GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicators and augmented by an additional GKD-C Confirmation indicator acting as a Continuation indicator. This module serves as a comprehensive tool that falls just below a Full GKD trading system. The key difference is that the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex utilizes a single GKD-C Confirmation indicator, while the Full GKD system employs two GKD-C Confirmation indicators. Both the Solo Confirmation Super Complex and the Full GKD systems incorporate an extra GKD-C Confirmation indicator to identify Continuation signals, which provide both longs and shorts on developing trends following an initial trend change.
This module encompasses two types of backtests: Trading and Full. The Trading backtest permits users to evaluate individual trades, whether Long or Short, one at a time. Conversely, the Full backtest allows users to analyze either Longs or Shorts separately by toggling between them in the settings, enabling the examination of results for each signal type. The Trading backtest emulates actual trading conditions, while the Full backtest assesses all signals, regardless of being Long or Short.
Additionally, this backtest module provides the option to test the core GKD-C Confirmation and GKD-C Continuation indicators with 1 to 3 take profits and 1 stop loss. The Trading backtest allows for the use of 1 to 3 take profits, while the Full backtest is limited to 1 take profit. The Trading backtest also offers the capability to apply a trailing take profit.
In terms of the percentage of trade removed at each take profit, this backtest module has the following hardcoded values:
Take profit 1: 50% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 2: 25% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 3: 25% of the trade is removed.
Stop loss: 100% of the trade is removed.
After each take profit is achieved, the stop loss level is adjusted. When take profit 1 is reached, the stop loss is moved to the entry point. Similarly, when take profit 2 is reached, the stop loss is shifted to take profit 1. The trailing take profit feature comes into play after take profit 2 or take profit 3, depending on the number of take profits selected in the settings. The trailing take profit is always activated on the final take profit when 2 or more take profits are chosen.
The backtest module also offers the capability to restrict by a specific date range, allowing for simulated forward testing based on past data. Additionally, users have the option to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. It is also possible to activate alerts and toggle sections of the trading panel on or off. On the chart, historical take profit and stop loss levels are represented by horizontal lines overlaid for reference.
To utilize this strategy, follow these steps:
1. GKD-B Baseline Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-B Baseline module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-B Baseline."
2. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume."
3. Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation Indicator to "GKD New."
4. GKD-C Confirmation Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation."
5. Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Continuation Indicator to "GKD New."
6. GKD-C Continuation Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Continuation module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Continuation."
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users can also adjust the multiplier values in the settings.
In a future update, the option to include a GKD-E Exit indicator will be added to this module to complete a full trading strategy.
█ Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest Entries
Within this module, there are eight distinct types of entries available, which are outlined below:
Standard Entry
1-Candle Standard Entry
Baseline Entry
1-Candle Baseline Entry
Volatility/Volume Entry
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
PullBack Entry
Continuation Entry
Each of these entry types can generate either long or short signals, resulting in a total of 16 signal variations. The user has the flexibility to enable or disable specific entry types and choose which qualifying rules within each entry type are applied to price to determine the final long or short signal. You'll notice that these signals are different form the core GKD signals mentioned towards the end of this description. Signals from the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Super Complex Backtest are modifided to add additional qualifications to make your finalized trading strategy more dynamic and robust.
The following section provides an overview of the various entry types and their corresponding qualifying rules:
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2. Baseline agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Standard Entry
1a. GKD-C Confirmation gives signal
2a. Baseline agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
Next Candle:
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Volatility/Volume agrees
6. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
1-Candle Baseline Entry
1a. GKD-B Basline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSBC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle:
1b. Price retraced
2b. Baseline agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2. Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5. Baseline agrees
6. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry
1a. GKD-V Volatility/Volume gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
4a. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
5a. Confirmation 1 signal was less than 'Maximum Allowable PSVVC Bars Back' prior
Next Candle:
1b. Price retraced
2b. Volatility/Volume agrees
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1a. GKD-B Baseline gives signal
2a. Confirmation 1 agrees
3a. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle:
1b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Minimum
2b. Price inside Goldie Locks Zone Maximum
3b. Confirmation 1 agrees
4b. Volatility/Volume agrees
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, 1-Candle Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, 1-Candle Baseline Entry, Volatility/Volume Entry, 1-Candle Volatility/Volume Entry, or Pullback entry triggered previously
2. Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
4. Confirmation 1 agrees
5. Baseline agrees
█ Volatility Types Included
This module includes 17 types of volatility:
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Fisher Trasnform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: Williams Percent Range
Continuation: Vortex as shown on the chart above
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals (based on the NNFX algorithm)
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 Signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, or Pullback; entry triggered previously
2. GKD-B Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
3. GKD-C Confirmation Continuation Indicator signals
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
1-Candle Rule Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Rule Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
1-Candle Rule Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close)
2. GKD-B Volatility/Volume agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle:
1. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
4. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest is a Backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest
The Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest module enables users to perform backtesting on Standard Long and Short signals from GKD-C confirmation indicators, filtered by GKD-B Baseline and GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicators. This module represents a complex form of the Solo Confirmation Backtest in the GKD trading system. It includes two types of backtests: Trading and Full. The Trading backtest allows users to test individual trades, both Long and Short, one at a time. On the other hand, the Full backtest allows users to test either Longs or Shorts by toggling between them in the settings to view the results for each signal type. The Trading backtest simulates real trading, while the Full backtest tests all signals, whether Long or Short.
Additionally, this backtest module provides the option to test the GKD-C Confirmation indicator with 1 to 3 take profits and 1 stop loss. The Trading backtest allows for the use of 1 to 3 take profits, while the Full backtest is limited to 1 take profit. The Trading backtest also offers the capability to apply a trailing take profit.
In terms of the percentage of trade removed at each take profit, this backtest module has the following hardcoded values:
Take profit 1: 50% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 2: 25% of the trade is removed.
Take profit 3: 25% of the trade is removed.
Stop loss: 100% of the trade is removed.
After each take profit is achieved, the stop loss level is adjusted. When take profit 1 is reached, the stop loss is moved to the entry point. Similarly, when take profit 2 is reached, the stop loss is shifted to take profit 1. The trailing take profit feature comes into play after take profit 2 or take profit 3, depending on the number of take profits selected in the settings. The trailing take profit is always activated on the final take profit when 2 or more take profits are chosen.
The backtest module also offers the capability to restrict by a specific date range, allowing for simulated forward testing based on past data. Additionally, users have the option to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. It is also possible to activate alerts and toggle sections of the trading panel on or off. On the chart, historical take profit and stop loss levels are represented by horizontal lines overlaid for reference.
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. Users can also adjust the multiplier values in the settings.
To utilize this strategy, follow these steps:
1. GKD-B Baseline Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-B Baseline module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-B Baseline indicator."
Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation Indicator to "GKD New."
2. GKD-C Confirmation Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-C Confirmation module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-C Confirmation indicator."
3. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Import: Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" from the GKD-V Volatility/Volume module into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest module setting named "Import GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator."
4. The Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest module exclusively supports Standard Entries, both Long and Short. However, please note that this module uses a modified version of the Standard Entry. In this modified version, long and short signals are directly imported from the Confirmation indicator, and then baseline and volatility filtering is applied.
The GKD-B Baseline filter ensures that only trades aligning with the GKD-B Baseline's current trend are accepted. This filter takes into consideration the Goldie Locks Zone, which allows trades where the closing price of the last candle has moved within a minimum XX volatility and a maximum YY volatility range. The GKD-V Volatility/Volume filter allows only trades that meet a minimum threshold of ZZ GKD-V Volatility/Volume, which varies based on the specific GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator used.
The Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest execution engine determines whether signals from the GKD-C Confirmation indicator are accepted or rejected based on two criteria:
1. The GKD-C Confirmation signal must be qualified by the direction of the GKD-B Baseline trend and the GKD-B Baseline's sweet-spot Goldie Locks Zone.
2. Sufficient Volatility/Volume, as indicated by the GKD-V Volatility/Volume indicator, must be present to execute a trade.
The purpose of the Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest is to test a GKD-C Confirmation indicator in the presence of macro trend and volatility/volume filtering.
Volatility Types Included
17 types of volatility are included in this indicator
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Solo Confirmation Complex Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Fisher Trasnform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: Williams Percent Range
Continuation: Volatility-Adaptive Rapid RSI T3
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals (based on the NNFX algorithm)
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 Signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, or Pullback; entry triggered previously
2. GKD-B Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
3. GKD-C Confirmation Continuation Indicator signals
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
1-Candle Rule Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Rule Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
1-Candle Rule Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close)
2. GKD-B Volatility/Volume agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle:
1. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
4. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest is a Backtesting module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest
The Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest module enables users to perform Standard Long and Short signals on GKD-C confirmation indicators. This module represents the simplest form of Backtest in the GKD trading system. It includes two types of backtests: Trading and Full. The Trading backtest allows users to test individual trades, both long and short, one at a time. On the other hand, the Full backtest allows users to test either longs or shorts by toggling between them in the settings to view the results for each signal type. The Trading backtest simulates real trading, while the Full backtest tests all signals, whether long or short.
Additionally, this backtest module provides the option to test the GKD-C indicator with 1 to 3 take profits and 1 stop loss. The Trading backtest allows for the use of 1 to 3 take profits, while the Full backtest is limited to 1 take profit. The Trading backtest also offers the capability to apply a trailing take profit.
In terms of the percentage of trade removed at each take profit, this backtest module has the following hardcoded values:
Take profit 1: 50% of the trade is removed
Take profit 2: 25% of the trade is removed
Take profit 3: 25% of the trade is removed
Stop loss: 100% of the trade is removed
After each take profit is achieved, the stop loss level is adjusted. When take profit 1 is reached, the stop loss is moved to the entry point. Similarly, when take profit 2 is reached, the stop loss is shifted to take profit 1. The trailing take profit feature comes into play after take profit 2 or take profit 3, depending on the number of take profits selected in the settings. The trailing take profit is always activated on the final take profit when 2 or more take profits are chosen.
The backtest also offers the capability to restrict by a specific date range, allowing for simulated forward testing based on past data. Additionally, users have the option to display or hide a trading panel that provides relevant information about the backtest, statistics, and the current trade. It is also possible to activate alerts and toggle sections of the trading panel on or off. On the chart, historical take profit and stop loss levels are represented by horizontal lines overlaid for reference.
The GKD system utilizes volatility-based take profits and stop losses. Each take profit and stop loss is calculated as a multiple of volatility. You can change the values of the multipliers in the settings as well.
To utilize this strategy, follow these steps:
1. Adjust the "Confirmation Type" in the GKD-C Confirmation Indicator to "GKD New."
2. Import the value "Input into NEW GKD-BT Backtest" into the GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest module (this strategy backtest).
**The GKD-BT Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest module exclusively supports Standard Entries, both Long and Short. However, please note that this module uses a modified version of the standard entry, where long and short signals are directly imported from the Confirmation indicator without any baseline or volatility filtering applied.**
Volatility Types Included
17 types of volatility are included in this indicator
Close-to-Close
Parkinson
Garman-Klass
Rogers-Satchell
Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
Average True Range
True Range Double
Standard Deviation
Adaptive Deviation
Median Absolute Deviation
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Mean Absolute Deviation
Static Percent
Close-to-Close
Close-to-Close volatility is a classic and widely used volatility measure, sometimes referred to as historical volatility.
Volatility is an indicator of the speed of a stock price change. A stock with high volatility is one where the price changes rapidly and with a larger amplitude. The more volatile a stock is, the riskier it is.
Close-to-close historical volatility is calculated using only a stock's closing prices. It is the simplest volatility estimator. However, in many cases, it is not precise enough. Stock prices could jump significantly during a trading session and return to the opening value at the end. That means that a considerable amount of price information is not taken into account by close-to-close volatility.
Despite its drawbacks, Close-to-Close volatility is still useful in cases where the instrument doesn't have intraday prices. For example, mutual funds calculate their net asset values daily or weekly, and thus their prices are not suitable for more sophisticated volatility estimators.
Parkinson
Parkinson volatility is a volatility measure that uses the stock’s high and low price of the day.
The main difference between regular volatility and Parkinson volatility is that the latter uses high and low prices for a day, rather than only the closing price. This is useful as close-to-close prices could show little difference while large price movements could have occurred during the day. Thus, Parkinson's volatility is considered more precise and requires less data for calculation than close-to-close volatility.
One drawback of this estimator is that it doesn't take into account price movements after the market closes. Hence, it systematically undervalues volatility. This drawback is addressed in the Garman-Klass volatility estimator.
Garman-Klass
Garman-Klass is a volatility estimator that incorporates open, low, high, and close prices of a security.
Garman-Klass volatility extends Parkinson's volatility by taking into account the opening and closing prices. As markets are most active during the opening and closing of a trading session, it makes volatility estimation more accurate.
Garman and Klass also assumed that the process of price change follows a continuous diffusion process (Geometric Brownian motion). However, this assumption has several drawbacks. The method is not robust for opening jumps in price and trend movements.
Despite its drawbacks, the Garman-Klass estimator is still more effective than the basic formula since it takes into account not only the price at the beginning and end of the time interval but also intraday price extremes.
Researchers Rogers and Satchell have proposed a more efficient method for assessing historical volatility that takes into account price trends. See Rogers-Satchell Volatility for more detail.
Rogers-Satchell
Rogers-Satchell is an estimator for measuring the volatility of securities with an average return not equal to zero.
Unlike Parkinson and Garman-Klass estimators, Rogers-Satchell incorporates a drift term (mean return not equal to zero). As a result, it provides better volatility estimation when the underlying is trending.
The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account price movements between trading sessions. This leads to an underestimation of volatility since price jumps periodically occur in the market precisely at the moments between sessions.
A more comprehensive estimator that also considers the gaps between sessions was developed based on the Rogers-Satchel formula in the 2000s by Yang-Zhang. See Yang Zhang Volatility for more detail.
Yang-Zhang
Yang Zhang is a historical volatility estimator that handles both opening jumps and the drift and has a minimum estimation error.
Yang-Zhang volatility can be thought of as a combination of the overnight (close-to-open volatility) and a weighted average of the Rogers-Satchell volatility and the day’s open-to-close volatility. It is considered to be 14 times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator.
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang
Garman-Klass-Yang-Zhang (GKYZ) volatility estimator incorporates the returns of open, high, low, and closing prices in its calculation.
GKYZ volatility estimator takes into account overnight jumps but not the trend, i.e., it assumes that the underlying asset follows a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process with zero drift. Therefore, the GKYZ volatility estimator tends to overestimate the volatility when the drift is different from zero. However, for a GBM process, this estimator is eight times more efficient than the close-to-close volatility estimator.
Exponential Weighted Moving Average
The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is a quantitative or statistical measure used to model or describe a time series. The EWMA is widely used in finance, with the main applications being technical analysis and volatility modeling.
The moving average is designed such that older observations are given lower weights. The weights decrease exponentially as the data point gets older – hence the name exponentially weighted.
The only decision a user of the EWMA must make is the parameter lambda. The parameter decides how important the current observation is in the calculation of the EWMA. The higher the value of lambda, the more closely the EWMA tracks the original time series.
Standard Deviation of Log Returns
This is the simplest calculation of volatility. It's the standard deviation of ln(close/close(1)).
Pseudo GARCH(2,2)
This is calculated using a short- and long-run mean of variance multiplied by ?.
?avg(var;M) + (1 ? ?) avg(var;N) = 2?var/(M+1-(M-1)L) + 2(1-?)var/(M+1-(M-1)L)
Solving for ? can be done by minimizing the mean squared error of estimation; that is, regressing L^-1var - avg(var; N) against avg(var; M) - avg(var; N) and using the resulting beta estimate as ?.
Average True Range
The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges.
True Range Double
A special case of ATR that attempts to correct for volatility skew.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a higher deviation within the data set; thus, the more spread out the data, the higher the standard deviation.
Adaptive Deviation
By definition, the Standard Deviation (STD, also represented by the Greek letter sigma ? or the Latin letter s) is a measure that is used to quantify the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of data values. In technical analysis, we usually use it to measure the level of current volatility.
Standard Deviation is based on Simple Moving Average calculation for mean value. This version of standard deviation uses the properties of EMA to calculate what can be called a new type of deviation, and since it is based on EMA, we can call it EMA deviation. Additionally, Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio is used to make it adaptive (since all EMA type calculations are nearly perfect for adapting).
The difference when compared to the standard is significant--not just because of EMA usage, but the efficiency ratio makes it a "bit more logical" in very volatile market conditions.
Median Absolute Deviation
The median absolute deviation is a measure of statistical dispersion. Moreover, the MAD is a robust statistic, being more resilient to outliers in a data set than the standard deviation. In the standard deviation, the distances from the mean are squared, so large deviations are weighted more heavily, and thus outliers can heavily influence it. In the MAD, the deviations of a small number of outliers are irrelevant.
Because the MAD is a more robust estimator of scale than the sample variance or standard deviation, it works better with distributions without a mean or variance, such as the Cauchy distribution.
Efficiency-Ratio Adaptive ATR
Average True Range (ATR) is a widely used indicator for many occasions in technical analysis. It is calculated as the RMA of the true range. This version adds a "twist": it uses Perry Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to calculate adaptive true range.
Mean Absolute Deviation
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of variability that indicates the average distance between observations and their mean. MAD uses the original units of the data, which simplifies interpretation. Larger values signify that the data points spread out further from the average. Conversely, lower values correspond to data points bunching closer to it. The mean absolute deviation is also known as the mean deviation and average absolute deviation.
This definition of the mean absolute deviation sounds similar to the standard deviation (SD). While both measure variability, they have different calculations. In recent years, some proponents of MAD have suggested that it replace the SD as the primary measure because it is a simpler concept that better fits real life.
Static Percent
Static Percent allows the user to insert their own constant percent that will then be used to create take profits and stoploss
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
Core components of an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted
What is Volatility in the NNFX trading system?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, ATR (Average True Range) is typically used to measure the volatility of an asset. It is used as a part of the system to help determine the appropriate stop loss and take profit levels for a trade. ATR is calculated by taking the average of the true range values over a specified period.
True range is calculated as the maximum of the following values:
-Current high minus the current low
-Absolute value of the current high minus the previous close
-Absolute value of the current low minus the previous close
ATR is a dynamic indicator that changes with changes in volatility. As volatility increases, the value of ATR increases, and as volatility decreases, the value of ATR decreases. By using ATR in NNFX system, traders can adjust their stop loss and take profit levels according to the volatility of the asset being traded. This helps to ensure that the trade is given enough room to move, while also minimizing potential losses.
Other types of volatility include True Range Double (TRD), Close-to-Close, and Garman-Klass
What is a Baseline indicator?
The baseline is essentially a moving average, and is used to determine the overall direction of the market.
The baseline in the NNFX system is used to filter out trades that are not in line with the long-term trend of the market. The baseline is plotted on the chart along with other indicators, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR).
Trades are only taken when the price is in the same direction as the baseline. For example, if the baseline is sloping upwards, only long trades are taken, and if the baseline is sloping downwards, only short trades are taken. This approach helps to ensure that trades are in line with the overall trend of the market, and reduces the risk of entering trades that are likely to fail.
By using a baseline in the NNFX system, traders can have a clear reference point for determining the overall trend of the market, and can make more informed trading decisions. The baseline helps to filter out noise and false signals, and ensures that trades are taken in the direction of the long-term trend.
What is a Confirmation indicator?
Confirmation indicators are technical indicators that are used to confirm the signals generated by primary indicators. Primary indicators are the core indicators used in the NNFX system, such as the Average True Range (ATR), the Moving Average (MA), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The purpose of the confirmation indicators is to reduce false signals and improve the accuracy of the trading system. They are designed to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators by providing additional information about the strength and direction of the trend.
Some examples of confirmation indicators that may be used in the NNFX system include the Bollinger Bands, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and the MACD Oscillator. These indicators can provide information about the volatility, momentum, and trend strength of the market, and can be used to confirm the signals generated by the primary indicators.
In the NNFX system, confirmation indicators are used in combination with primary indicators and other filters to create a trading system that is robust and reliable. By using multiple indicators to confirm trading signals, the system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of the trades.
What is a Continuation indicator?
In the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) trading system, a continuation indicator is a technical indicator that is used to confirm a current trend and predict that the trend is likely to continue in the same direction. A continuation indicator is typically used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as a baseline indicator, to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
What is a Volatility/Volume indicator?
Volume indicators, such as the On Balance Volume (OBV), the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), or the Volume Price Trend (VPT), are used to measure the amount of buying and selling activity in a market. They are based on the trading volume of the market, and can provide information about the strength of the trend. In the NNFX system, volume indicators are used to confirm trading signals generated by the Moving Average and the Relative Strength Index. Volatility indicators include Average Direction Index, Waddah Attar, and Volatility Ratio. In the NNFX trading system, volatility is a proxy for volume and vice versa.
By using volume indicators as confirmation tools, the NNFX trading system aims to reduce the risk of false signals and improve the overall profitability of trades. These indicators can provide additional information about the market that is not captured by the primary indicators, and can help traders to make more informed trading decisions. In addition, volume indicators can be used to identify potential changes in market trends and to confirm the strength of price movements.
What is an Exit indicator?
The exit indicator is used in conjunction with other indicators in the system, such as the Moving Average (MA), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Average True Range (ATR), to provide a comprehensive trading strategy.
The exit indicator in the NNFX system can be any technical indicator that is deemed effective at identifying optimal exit points. Examples of exit indicators that are commonly used include the Parabolic SAR, the Average Directional Index (ADX), and the Chandelier Exit.
The purpose of the exit indicator is to identify when a trend is likely to reverse or when the market conditions have changed, signaling the need to exit a trade. By using an exit indicator, traders can manage their risk and prevent significant losses.
In the NNFX system, the exit indicator is used in conjunction with a stop loss and a take profit order to maximize profits and minimize losses. The stop loss order is used to limit the amount of loss that can be incurred if the trade goes against the trader, while the take profit order is used to lock in profits when the trade is moving in the trader's favor.
Overall, the use of an exit indicator in the NNFX trading system is an important component of a comprehensive trading strategy. It allows traders to manage their risk effectively and improve the profitability of their trades by exiting at the right time.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v2.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data to A backtest module wherein the various components of the GKD system are combined to create a trading signal.
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Solo Confirmation Simple Backtest as shown on the chart above
Baseline: Hull Moving Average
Volatility/Volume: Hurst Exponent
Confirmation 1: Fisher Trasnform as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: Williams Percent Range
Continuation: Volatility-Adaptive Rapid RSI T3
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD system.
Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals (based on the NNFX algorithm)
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 Signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, or Pullback; entry triggered previously
2. GKD-B Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
3. GKD-C Confirmation Continuation Indicator signals
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
1-Candle Rule Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Rule Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
1-Candle Rule Volatility/Volume Entry
1. GKD-V Volatility/Volume signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close)
2. GKD-B Volatility/Volume agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
PullBack Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle:
1. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
4. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
Endpointed SSA of Price [Loxx]The Endpointed SSA of Price: A Comprehensive Tool for Market Analysis and Decision-Making
The financial markets present sophisticated challenges for traders and investors as they navigate the complexities of market behavior. To effectively interpret and capitalize on these complexities, it is crucial to employ powerful analytical tools that can reveal hidden patterns and trends. One such tool is the Endpointed SSA of Price, which combines the strengths of Caterpillar Singular Spectrum Analysis, a sophisticated time series decomposition method, with insights from the fields of economics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.
The Endpointed SSA of Price has its roots in the interdisciplinary fusion of mathematical techniques, economic understanding, and advancements in artificial intelligence. This unique combination allows for a versatile and reliable tool that can aid traders and investors in making informed decisions based on comprehensive market analysis.
The Endpointed SSA of Price is not only valuable for experienced traders but also serves as a useful resource for those new to the financial markets. By providing a deeper understanding of market forces, this innovative indicator equips users with the knowledge and confidence to better assess risks and opportunities in their financial pursuits.
█ Exploring Caterpillar SSA: Applications in AI, Machine Learning, and Finance
Caterpillar SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) is a non-parametric method for time series analysis and signal processing. It is based on a combination of principles from classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, and the theory of random processes. The method was initially developed in the early 1990s by a group of Russian mathematicians, including Golyandina, Nekrutkin, and Zhigljavsky.
Background Information:
SSA is an advanced technique for decomposing time series data into a sum of interpretable components, such as trend, seasonality, and noise. This decomposition allows for a better understanding of the underlying structure of the data and facilitates forecasting, smoothing, and anomaly detection. Caterpillar SSA is a particular implementation of SSA that has proven to be computationally efficient and effective for handling large datasets.
Uses in AI and Machine Learning:
In recent years, Caterpillar SSA has found applications in various fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Some of these applications include:
1. Feature extraction: Caterpillar SSA can be used to extract meaningful features from time series data, which can then serve as inputs for machine learning models. These features can help improve the performance of various models, such as regression, classification, and clustering algorithms.
2. Dimensionality reduction: Caterpillar SSA can be employed as a dimensionality reduction technique, similar to Principal Component Analysis (PCA). It helps identify the most significant components of a high-dimensional dataset, reducing the computational complexity and mitigating the "curse of dimensionality" in machine learning tasks.
3. Anomaly detection: The decomposition of a time series into interpretable components through Caterpillar SSA can help in identifying unusual patterns or outliers in the data. Machine learning models trained on these decomposed components can detect anomalies more effectively, as the noise component is separated from the signal.
4. Forecasting: Caterpillar SSA has been used in combination with machine learning techniques, such as neural networks, to improve forecasting accuracy. By decomposing a time series into its underlying components, machine learning models can better capture the trends and seasonality in the data, resulting in more accurate predictions.
Application in Financial Markets and Economics:
Caterpillar SSA has been employed in various domains within financial markets and economics. Some notable applications include:
1. Stock price analysis: Caterpillar SSA can be used to analyze and forecast stock prices by decomposing them into trend, seasonal, and noise components. This decomposition can help traders and investors better understand market dynamics, detect potential turning points, and make more informed decisions.
2. Economic indicators: Caterpillar SSA has been used to analyze and forecast economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates. By decomposing these time series, researchers can better understand the underlying factors driving economic fluctuations and develop more accurate forecasting models.
3. Portfolio optimization: By applying Caterpillar SSA to financial time series data, portfolio managers can better understand the relationships between different assets and make more informed decisions regarding asset allocation and risk management.
Application in the Indicator:
In the given indicator, Caterpillar SSA is applied to a financial time series (price data) to smooth the series and detect significant trends or turning points. The method is used to decompose the price data into a set number of components, which are then combined to generate a smoothed signal. This signal can help traders and investors identify potential entry and exit points for their trades.
The indicator applies the Caterpillar SSA method by first constructing the trajectory matrix using the price data, then computing the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the matrix, and finally reconstructing the time series using a selected number of components. The reconstructed series serves as a smoothed version of the original price data, highlighting significant trends and turning points. The indicator can be customized by adjusting the lag, number of computations, and number of components used in the reconstruction process. By fine-tuning these parameters, traders and investors can optimize the indicator to better match their specific trading style and risk tolerance.
Caterpillar SSA is versatile and can be applied to various types of financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. It can also be combined with other technical analysis tools or indicators to create a comprehensive trading system. For example, a trader might use Caterpillar SSA to identify the primary trend in a market and then employ additional indicators, such as moving averages or RSI, to confirm the trend and generate trading signals.
In summary, Caterpillar SSA is a powerful time series analysis technique that has found applications in AI and machine learning, as well as financial markets and economics. By decomposing a time series into interpretable components, Caterpillar SSA enables better understanding of the underlying structure of the data, facilitating forecasting, smoothing, and anomaly detection. In the context of financial trading, the technique is used to analyze price data, detect significant trends or turning points, and inform trading decisions.
█ Input Parameters
This indicator takes several inputs that affect its signal output. These inputs can be classified into three categories: Basic Settings, UI Options, and Computation Parameters.
Source: This input represents the source of price data, which is typically the closing price of an asset. The user can select other price data, such as opening price, high price, or low price. The selected price data is then utilized in the Caterpillar SSA calculation process.
Lag: The lag input determines the window size used for the time series decomposition. A higher lag value implies that the SSA algorithm will consider a longer range of historical data when extracting the underlying trend and components. This parameter is crucial, as it directly impacts the resulting smoothed series and the quality of extracted components.
Number of Computations: This input, denoted as 'ncomp,' specifies the number of eigencomponents to be considered in the reconstruction of the time series. A smaller value results in a smoother output signal, while a higher value retains more details in the series, potentially capturing short-term fluctuations.
SSA Period Normalization: This input is used to normalize the SSA period, which adjusts the significance of each eigencomponent to the overall signal. It helps in making the algorithm adaptive to different timeframes and market conditions.
Number of Bars: This input specifies the number of bars to be processed by the algorithm. It controls the range of data used for calculations and directly affects the computation time and the output signal.
Number of Bars to Render: This input sets the number of bars to be plotted on the chart. A higher value slows down the computation but provides a more comprehensive view of the indicator's performance over a longer period. This value controls how far back the indicator is rendered.
Color bars: This boolean input determines whether the bars should be colored according to the signal's direction. If set to true, the bars are colored using the defined colors, which visually indicate the trend direction.
Show signals: This boolean input controls the display of buy and sell signals on the chart. If set to true, the indicator plots shapes (triangles) to represent long and short trade signals.
Static Computation Parameters:
The indicator also includes several internal parameters that affect the Caterpillar SSA algorithm, such as Maxncomp, MaxLag, and MaxArrayLength. These parameters set the maximum allowed values for the number of computations, the lag, and the array length, ensuring that the calculations remain within reasonable limits and do not consume excessive computational resources.
█ A Note on Endpionted, Non-repainting Indicators
An endpointed indicator is one that does not recalculate or repaint its past values based on new incoming data. In other words, the indicator's previous signals remain the same even as new price data is added. This is an important feature because it ensures that the signals generated by the indicator are reliable and accurate, even after the fact.
When an indicator is non-repainting or endpointed, it means that the trader can have confidence in the signals being generated, knowing that they will not change as new data comes in. This allows traders to make informed decisions based on historical signals, without the fear of the signals being invalidated in the future.
In the case of the Endpointed SSA of Price, this non-repainting property is particularly valuable because it allows traders to identify trend changes and reversals with a high degree of accuracy, which can be used to inform trading decisions. This can be especially important in volatile markets where quick decisions need to be made.
