International [interest, exchange] rates from my blog to @quantguy :
Below are links to a rapid-throw-together set of charts comparing rates internationally. There are probably millions of other graphs like this created by organisations and educationals institutes, but far more advanced and accurate. Even so, the graphs show the time relationship between rates, and are suggestive of some degree of correlation. No sense pushing this too far, it would be more fun to ferret out more of the network of inter-related factors. One possible current anomaly is the GBPUSD exchange rate?
The charts were generated using a simple PineScript (should be visible?)
// saved graphs - unfortunately, all of the colored labels on the graph were lost!!
// exchange rates are shown by darker colors, interest rates lighter similar colors
// China - green, Euro - purple, Great Britain - blue, Japan - orange (you can see this in the4 code below!)
// stable interest rates :
// policy-manipulated interest rates :
// maybe the "stable rates" countries do more "exchange rate" manipulation?
I haven't put in (min, max) interest rates for time periods EXCEPT for 6month & 1 year. the other periods will be erroneous (eg day, month, 3 month, 5 year, etc)
TNX
Dynamic MVLR -PublicDynamic Mult-variate Linear Regression
- Capable of 3 independent variables
- To have less than 3 variables, toggle off the variables you don't need in settings
- Adjustable look back period (# of candles)
Long / Short Indication
- long if close below 1 std dev
- short if open above 1 std dev
US 10 Yr Yield Fair ValueI calculate a fair value of the US 10 year yield applying a rolling regression (default 15 periods) with 2 different ratios.
Entry of long and short are based on differ and exit are based if yield high/low price is below/above the fair value -/+ 1 std dev.
Exit when long is based on if short is indicated or yield is inside the boundary of the FV value (+/-5% of FV for example)
Exit when short is when long is indicated.
