CORNH2025 trade ideas
CBoT corn has found its long term tradable bottomCorn:
Price is keeping our preferred path as laid out last week reasonably well thus far. What we now need to see is that price keeps developing accordingly and will not break its previous low of 314/315. It could be that price will test the 330/335 supportive zone one more time and pull down through this zone to 325 or so but that should, if it happens at all, a very short times affair. We keep our bias unchanged that a bottom is in the market and price will trade up from here with 375 as first target for week 41.
CBoT Corn almost ready for the long term run upCorn:
Price has pushed a bit lower during the first half of the week and did make a reversal during the second half of the week. It could be that price has actually hit the low an that this low will turn out to be the low for a long time. However, after having called for a low too early 2 or 3 times during the past weeks we have become a bit more cautious and want to see confirmation. Besides, there is no hurry to jump into this market as with the picture as it currently develops we will certainly see a test of same low so we won't miss too much of it.
There is a resistance zone at the 330/335 zone where price traded to during last Friday and a decisive break of same will give us the green light to look for higher levels from there. However, for now we want to hold back a bit longer just to see hoe this plays out and whether price , maybe, wants to make on more push to the downside.
It is worth keeping in mind that, once a tradable low has been put on the chart, we will be looking for an very far reaching move to the upside that will take price to 450 and even possibly 500 during the first quarter of 2017. That would be some 405 to 70% higher than what we are looking at now and can be classified as a 'massive increase'. Having said so, we will have to take this one step at the time and will need to identify the tradable bottom first.
Similar to WheatHeikin-Ashi signals bearish consolidation or some pull back is possible.
In case of corn, continous chart shows a slightly higher low too, and Tenkan is still above Kijun.
If you consider a small swing buy with tight stop, Corn is probably a better candidate than Wheat.
CBoT corn wrong again and back to neutral for nowCorn:
Price took a 5% beating during the past week and has therefore principally negated our bull scenario that we had put on the chart last week. Still, we see that the bottoming out is imminent although the confirmation of same has not yet been delivered and price is close to its contract low of Aug 12 at 322.50 which is likely going to be taken out during the coming week.
We are taking a step back for a breather on this chart and we are now looking, again, for a bottom to form on very short term and keep the 310/300 region for that on our mind.
CBoT corn long playCorn:
Price action did confirm that the bottom is in the market and price moved up some 3% during the week. We call it a bull bias from here but would like to see an impulsive move up during the coming week to secure the move up more solidly. A draw back could still occur but is not in our favourite scenario.
Corn - Bottom seen at 312.00On August 4 - 2016 I said, that we either had seen a bottom at 319.40 or needed one more decline closer to 310.00.
With a low seen at 312.00 followed by a rally above minor resistance at 328.60 the low is in place for a long term rally to 440.40 and above here confirms the rally to 519.00.
CBoT corn is a long playUpdate for CORN Z16:
During last weekend we were not certain yet on the bottom in the market for this price and we would have liked to see one more swing to the downside. In meantime, however, we identify the candle of last Friday as a 'hammer' that has been confirmed by yesterday's firmer candle. We are looking to the upside from here and call a tradable bottom in the market. There could still come a pull-back of price but as long as price keeps trading above the 320/317 level we keep our view to the upside. If and when price breaks that level we will have to go back to our drawing board and abandon our bull bias.
CBoT corn still no green light for a long playCorn:
Price basically has been moving sideways during the past 9 sessions although it made a fierce spike to the downside during yesterday's sessions after which price recovered back to its level of apparent comfort of the past 2 weeks. We are anticipating a solid bottom for price and have done so for some weeks now but we currently still feel uncertain to call for same bottom. We want to have one more week of 'wait-and-see' attitude on this one after which we will try to establish a renewed judgement. It could be that we will have to conclude and call for a bottom during the coming trading week in which case we will come with an update.
Positive divergences again. Will it work for a bottom this time?Weekly:
- Ichimoku has a bearish bias, but despite the recent selloff, the averages (Kijun and Kumo) are still dlat, as the rally in May-June had same weight! This means mkt got oversold as Price is very far below equilibrium.
Maybe it sounds funny, but this market still has to be considered as a RANGE. The range is very wide, with 320 possible bottom, 375-380 equilibrium mid, and 425 top.
- Heikin-Ashi is still bearish, but haDelta has been picking up from extreme low. Price made new lows towards 320 resistance, so this means some positive divergence. haDelta need to climb over zero to fade heavy bearish price action.
- EWO is bearish. MACD is bearish biased, but signal line is still above zero, and histogram seems to start bottom out. (very early and weak positive signal)
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish
- Price pattern makes a possible bullish wedge
- Heikin-Ashi gives early bullish signal: haDelta is testing zero, it has built remarkable positive divergence. Candle may turn bullish today, but first real key reversal level is 329!
- EWO is bearish, but has been slowly building some bullish divergence too.
Strategy: Get ready to open 0,5 unit swing long. Initial tgt can be 350 +/-.
Note: I will show 4H Ichimoku later on Twitter from my firm trading system. 4H Kijun now is 326,25 and forward Kumo top (Senkou B) is 329.
CBoT corn long play around the cornerCorn:
Price is following our preferred path rather well and the decline is now very major. The reversal is imminent. It could be that the bottom has been on the chart last week at 329 but a bit of overshoot to the 320 level is possible as well. We stay tuned for a long play entry which will probably be offered to us during the coming week or week ahead and with a 30% rally towards the end of the year.
Corn - Bottom in place or expected very soonCorn is tracing out a major complex correction in wave B. This correction began way back in late September 2014 and has unfolded as a zig-zag from the 2014 low at 318 to 443 as wave W and has been followed a zig-zag decline in wave X from 443 to a low currently seen at 319. The X-wave could be complete and if this is the case, then a break above short term important resistance at 335 soon will be seen for a long term rally back to at least 443 and likely even higher towards 519.
As long as short term important resistance at 335 is able to protect the upside, we must allow for a final decline closer to 310, but it's only a question of time before the low is in place and a new rally begins
Corn - Bottoming for a rally towards at least 440Corn has either bottomed at 319.4 or needs one more decline closer to 310.00 before a long term bottom is seen for a rally towards at least 440.00 and possibly even higher towards 519.00.
The first strong indication of the bottom being in place will be a break above the resistance-line seen near 329.00 while a break above 335.00 confirms the bottom for the rally to at least 440.00.
CORN at major pivot/support pointcorn at daily double bottom, long off this support level or short on a breakdown
Building Good Case to go Long CornRecent run up in corn prices have resulted in a quick sell off to return to equilibrium prices. Price is on its 3 push down. Trading volume remains extremely below average and the fractal acceleration has turned positive and consequently, the fractal momentum is slowing and turning positive. We are looking for a positive increase in price followed by a jump in trading volume to go long.
One could buy a long future or buy a call option or sell a put option or any combination thereof.
Futures trading involves risk and is not suited for every investor.
CBoT Corn long play entry needs more timeCorn:
We were wrong with our first buy-stop at 375 of 2 weeks ago and also our buy signal at 340 of one week ago turned out to be too premature. We have removed them from our chart in meantime. Nonetheless, our long term view on this price remains 30-35% to the upside into the next calendar year but it is just the timing for entry of the long play that has to be postponed a bit. Fact that we have been stopped out twice in a row doe snot change our bias.
Time being we expect price to make one more modest move to the downside and bottom out in one week or 10 days at around the 320 level from where we anticipate price to finally make its reversal and start trading up. For now we wait.
CBoT corn long playCorn:
Price indeed traded further down which has caused a massive drawdown on longs that were take at the buy-stop level. Price drew a very long bottom tail on the chart for Friday's candle with a (less than perfect) 'hammer' as result.
Longs that have been stopped out now have a renewed opportunity to try one more long play but need to put stops tight as we want to see the reversal to happen during the first 2 or 3 sessions of the week.
Positive divergences - can it make a local bottom?Here are the daily and 4H charts of Corn which I meantioned yesterday on Twitter but I could not post.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish, but Price is too far below equilibrium. It needs to consolidate, pull back a bit at some point.
- Heikin-Ashi candles shrink, last candle is a doji. haDetlta is still below zero: consolidation, indecision
- minor positive divergence in EWO
4H:
- Ichimoku is losing some of its bearish bias. Price is testing Kijun and bearish trendline.
- haDelta/SMA3 shows positive divergence
- EWO shows positive divergence
- Short term upper key levels: 338-340 and 345
In case Price can't make a lower low today or tomorrow, then we may see some quicker pull back to 350-360 zone.
Be wise how much risk you allocate to this trade! You have to keep a tight stop below 330, and you should not trade more than 0,5-1 trade unit size. Risk management is always the key, especially in case of counter trend swing trades!
