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GER40 trade ideas

DAX/SPX - long - increase of approx 50%DAX/SPX 'crashed' in March 2003 and then a higher low was created in February 2022. You see an upward trend – just like before from 1992 and (also) 1980 – with the yellow line being respected again (touched in November 2024). The yellow lines are exactly the same. I expect the top of the channel to be touched, so around 5. From the current level, that is an increase of about 50%. We are on the eve of 1995, i.e. a rising stock market (final phase of the long-term bull market), but EU indices will overtake US indices for the time being. See also my other idea, you see the same with AEX/SPX. European indices are lagging behind those of the US.
XETR:DAX
by Krijgsman
DAX H4 | Approaching all-time highDAX (GER30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 20,510.80 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 20,800.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit is at 20,013.22 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
GER40: German Data and China Security RequirementsThe DAX, Germany's benchmark index, faces pressure from both economic data released this morning and China's new regulatory policies that directly affect European companies with operations in the Asian giant. Impact of economic data in Germany The economic data released reflects a cooling in the German economy, especially in exports (-2.9%) and industrial production (-1%). This particularly affects exporting companies, a key component of the DAX, such as Volkswagen, Siemens, and BASF, whose revenues are highly dependent on foreign demand. Economic highlights: 1. MoM imports (November): o Result: -0.1% (previous: 0.7%, expected: -3.3%). o Imports show a slight contraction, indicating lower domestic demand for foreign goods. This can be interpreted as a cooling of the local economic activity. 2. Trade balance (November): o Outturn: €13.4B (previous: €14.8B, expected: €19.7B). o Although the trade surplus remains positive, it is below expectations, reflecting a drop in net trade due to a decline in both exports and imports. 3. MoM Exports (November): o Outturn: -2.9% (previous: 2.0%, expected: 2.1%). o The significant drop in exports indicates weaker demand from Germany's trading partners, which could be a reflection of a tougher global environment, especially in sectors such as automotive and machinery. 4. Industrial Production MoM (November): o Outturn: -1% (previous: 0.5%, expected: 1.5%). o Industrial production shows a larger-than-expected contraction, underscoring the weakness of the manufacturing sector, traditionally a backbone of the German economy. China's regulatory requirements and their impact on DAX companies. The German Index (Ticker AT: GER40), which represents leading German stocks, shows mixed performance today, influenced by the release of key economic data from the Eurozone and Germany. The results reflect signs of a slowdown in the industrial and commercial sector, which could lead to market volatility. New security laws in China are forcing European companies to 'silo' their operations in the country, generating higher operational and strategic costs. This has significant implications for strategic sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals and technology, which are highly represented in the DAX: 1. Manufacturing and automotive sector (Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, Siemens, BASF): o Companies are seeing how their subsidiaries in China must operate more independently, which increases regulatory compliance costs and reduces the efficiency of supply chains. o Uncertainty about what constitutes a “security risk” in China affects the ability of these companies to plan long-term investments. o Industrial companies such as Siemens, BASF and Volkswagen are showing declines due to the contraction in industrial production and exports. This economic data today can be interpreted as a sign of weakness in the German economic recovery. 2. Export Sector: International trade-oriented companies, such as Daimler and BMW, could face further pressure from falling exports, especially in key markets such as Asia and the United States. 3. Financial sector: Banks such as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are stable as the data does not directly affect the financial sector, but the overall macroeconomic environment may influence their long-term projections. 4. Technology sector (Infineon, SAP): o Technology companies are particularly exposed to the need to adapt their products and services to local regulations, which could limit their global competitiveness. 5. Pharmaceutical sector (Bayer, Merck): o New regulatory requirements and lack of clarity on “made in China” labeling could limit access to public tenders in the country, affecting growth in a key market. Overall implications for the DAX. - Increased costs: Compartmentalization of operations implies additional costs in logistics, compliance and duplication of resources. - Investment concerns: Companies could reduce their exposure in China due to regulatory uncertainty, impacting their growth prospects in the medium to long term. - Impact on market sentiment: Sectors more exposed to China, such as automotive and technology, could see further pressure on their share prices, affecting the DAX's overall performance. DAX technical outlook: - The DAX has traded in a range these days between 20,384.43 and 20,241.58 points during the first hours of trading in a distribution phase. The current appearance of the long-term chart being a consolidated uptrend from January 6 with an uptrending crossover of averages. - Key resistance at the Check Point (POC): 19,923.05 points on the daily chart, the last accumulation zone, a level to which the index could return if the economic data continues to disappoint, completing the corrective phase. - Immediate support: It is located at the bottom of the range (20,241.58 points), which acts as a psychological barrier against further declines. - Expected volatility: The RSI is at 48.54% in the middle zone. The combination of weak economic data and regulatory tensions in China could lead the index to test support levels in the coming sessions. Conclusion The DAX faces a challenging environment due to domestic economic weakness and external complications in key markets such as China. While global markets remain mindful of monetary policies, the lack of momentum in key sectors in Germany could limit the index's performance in the near term. Investors will be watching how companies adapt their operations to new regulatory requirements and upcoming macroeconomic data and statements from the European Central Bank, especially regarding the outlook for growth and monetary policy that could influence the index's outlook. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GER40
by ActivTrades
1
Bullish bounce off pullback support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 20,103.77 1st Support: 19,782.76 1st Resistance: 20,493.34 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by ICmarkets
1
DAX / GER40 analysisThe PEPPERSTONE:GER40 XETR:DAX has exhibited a consistent bullish trend in recent months, trading within an ascending channel on the weekly chart. However, on the daily chart, signs of exhaustion are emerging following significant upward moves, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or correction. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance 1: 20,261 points Resistance 2: 20,481 points Support 1: 19,202 points Support 2: 19,028 points The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone, indicating the asset may be overvalued and vulnerable to a correction. A potential distribution phase is noted, where institutional players might be taking profits after the recent rally, setting the stage for a possible reversal or sideways movement. Relevant Fundamental Factors: The German economy faces significant headwinds, with growth projected at just 0.1% for 2025 following two years of contraction. Additionally, the recent political crisis, marked by the collapse of the governing coalition, has heightened economic and political uncertainty in the country. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the 20,261-point resistance with strong volume, it could target the next resistance at 20,481 points. To confirm the continuation of the uptrend, the RSI must remain at moderate levels, avoiding extreme overbought conditions. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaches the 19,202-point support, it may accelerate toward the next support at 19,028 points or even the discount area. A declining RSI would reinforce this scenario, signaling increased selling pressure.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by JoaoZarate
32
DAX // neutral zoneThe market has turned south, after reaching the weekly target fibo 200, with a daily wave, and then tested the last clean daily breakout, but couldn't close above it. It's between a daily breakout and a daily breakdown, that makes it a neutral zone. Leaving this zone (up north there is a clean H4 breakdown that may stop the bulls) puts the market either in the primary long expansion phase, or the countertrend expansion. The target of the former is the weekly target fibo 213.2, the short target is the monthly breakout. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. Level colors: Daily - blue Weekly - purple Monthly - magenta H4 - aqua Long trigger - green Short trigger - red ——— Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼‍♂️ <<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
PEPPERSTONE:GER40
by TheMarketFlow
DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade at any point. however I advise placing Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 1H period, the recent / nearest low or high level. Goal 🎯: 20700.0 (or) escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the DE30EUR/GER30 "GERMANY 30" is: Bullish Reasons: Strong economic growth: Germany's economy is expected to grow at a rate of 1.8% in 2023, driven by a strong manufacturing sector, increasing business investment, and a rebound in the automotive industry. Low unemployment rate: Germany's unemployment rate is at a historic low of 3.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending and economic growth. Increasing corporate earnings: German companies are expected to report increasing earnings in 2023, driven by a strong global economy and a competitive euro. Monetary policy support: The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates at a low level of 0.0%, which is expected to support borrowing and spending in the economy. Fiscal policy support: The German government has announced a series of fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which are expected to support economic growth. Bullish Factors: Strong European economic growth, driven by strong consumer spending and investment. Low interest rates, which can increase demand for stocks and reduce demand for bonds. Potential for a rebound in the German economy, driven by a pickup in global trade and a resolution to trade tensions. Growing investment demand for German stocks, driven by their potential for long-term growth and dividend yields. Diversification benefits of investing in the German stock market, which can reduce portfolio risk and increase returns. Some of the key stocks that make up the DE30EUR/GER30 index include: SAP SE: A leading software company Siemens AG: A leading industrial conglomerate Bayer AG: A leading pharmaceutical company Volkswagen AG: A leading automaker Deutsche Bank AG: A leading financial institution These stocks can have a significant impact on the performance of the DE30EUR/GER30 index, and investors should keep a close eye on their earnings and valuations when making investment decisions. Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment: 75% Bearish sentiment: 25% Neutral sentiment: 0% Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by Thief_Trader
GER40 - Short Setup My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range. But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by Maks_Klimenko
4-hr Germany 40: Getting Ready for 500 Points Increase The German DAX 40 saw impressive gains of over 1,500 points between mid-November and mid-December. However, following comments from the Fed, the index corrected nearly 800 points, reaching the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level. For the past three weeks, the DAX 40 has held above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, signaling that bulls may be regaining control. Supporting this bullish outlook is today’s Golden Cross, a classic buy signal and an indicator of strong upward momentum. Based on this setup, we favor entering a buy position but will wait for a potential 100-point dip to secure a better risk-to-reward ratio. Buying near 19,950 offers a strategic entry point, with a target set at December’s swing high of 20,450. This target aligns with the potential formation of a Double Top pattern, a critical resistance level. If the bullish momentum persists, this strategy positions us well for capitalizing on the DAX 40's upward trajectory.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by Trendsharks
Fri 2024 12 13 Long||| Stats ||| Stats Week: ** Mid Month Turn, ** US CPI: 14:30, - as expected, ** Thu EU GC 14:15:, - reduced as expected, ** Mon Morning rule, - yes, ** Tue return to W1 trend and not a W1 trend change, - yes Stats Month: ** Christmas Rally - start Mid Nov. - yes bottom ** Christmas Rally - US election year, start Dec. - yes Stats Year: ** US Election, ||| Trade Taken ||| Trade Taken: ** Time frame: * H3 ** Time: * 03pm, Set-Up: ** Trigger for trade: * Momentum Long, * Mon Morning rule, * Tue return to W1 trend - UP, * Senti, - P16, ** Mom Width: * 6 candles - med/strong, ** Mom Type: * 3rd directional - risk at last Mom turn, Risk Reward: ** Risk: * last Mom Turn, ** Target: * R 1:1 as at ATH,
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by ErPat
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods Phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below) Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Germany 40 maintains its bullish correction phase, currently trading at 19,937, below the VWAP (20) of 20,121. Support is positioned at 19,680, while resistance is at 20,562. The RSI at 50 reflects neutral momentum, indicating a pause in the prior uptrend. UK 100 index remains neutral within its long-lasting consolidation phase, trading at 8,218, slightly above the VWAP (20) of 8,183. Support is at 8,040, with resistance at 8,326. An RSI of 55 signals moderate momentum, hinting at slight bullish tendencies within the range. Wall Street is in a bullish correction phase, trading at 42,375, below the VWAP (20) of 43,064. Support is located at 41,941, with resistance at 44,188. The RSI at 32 suggests oversold conditions, potentially signaling a reversal higher. Brent Crude has finally flipped from its sideways range into a new bullish impulsive phase, trading at 7,642, above the VWAP (20) of 7,361. Support is at 7,144, while resistance is at 7,578. The RSI at 70 indicates overbought momentum, suggesting near term caution for further upside. Gold remains neutral in a consolidation phase, trading at 2,658. It has just broken back over the VWAP (20) of 2,635, which has defined the top of a short-term range. Support is at 2,574, and resistance is at 2,695. The RSI at 55 shows balanced momentum with a new bullish tilt, but still consistent with the ongoing range-bound market. EUR/USD remains very bearish with euro-dollar parity coming into view. It is in an impulsive phase, trading at 1.0267, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0428 . Support is at 1.0297, with resistance at 1.0559. The RSI at 28 highlights oversold conditions, suggesting potential downside exhaustion. GBP/USD is in a bearish impulsive phase, breaking down below a rising trendline drawn by Autotrend trading at 1.2380, below the VWAP (20) of 1.2589. Support is positioned at 1.2416, with resistance at 1.2761. The RSI at 30 indicates bearish momentum, with the oversold level consistent with a strong downtrend. USD/JPY continues its bullish impulsive phase, trading at 157.35, above the November high and the VWAP (20) of 155.76. Support is at 151.82, with resistance at 159.70. The RSI at 62 reflects strong upward momentum, supporting the bullish trend.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
DAX: Watch 20100-20200 Resistance For A Sell-offThe German DAX is trading slowly for the last few days, here beneath the 20,000 level, which clearly acts as a strong resistance zone. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if more liquidations occur slightly higher, around the 20,100 mark. Because what I’m observing is a minor triangle within current recovery, and these patterns are typically in the middle of smaller trends. This suggests that we might still be missing one final leg in wave B to complete the recovery from December 20th low. After that, a strong bearish reversal could still show up on the DAX, possibly sometime this week. Be prepared and aware of the potential for a deeper correction ahead. GH
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Short
by ew-forecast
DAX H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 20,212.82 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 20,393.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 19,825.69 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
2
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: Bulls printed 5 consecutive bull bars but price went nowhere. We are still below the daily 20ema and this looks like a shallow pull-back in a bear trend. Bears need a strong close below 19800 to confirm it. If bulls close above 20000 again, bears could give up and we test higher again. Market is in breakout mode and we will see a bigger move next week. Right now I see the odds 60/40 for the bears. comment: I don’t have anything to add to my tl;dr paragraph. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. Only a daily close below 19600 would be my confirmation for the trading range. key levels: 19600 - 20100 (below 19600, 19000/19200 come into play / above 20100, 20400 or higher is possible again) bull case: Bulls are preventing the market from making a new low for now but they fail to close daily bars above 20000. Once they do that again with follow-through, they likely took control of the market again and we could expect higher prices above 20200 again. Their first target above 20000 is to close the bear gap to 20240 and above that there is no more resistance until 20400. Invalidation is below 19600. bear case: Bears are doing good in keeping the market below 20000 which is the most important price for both sides. I still favor the bears to get a second leg down to 19200/19400 but those odds will only rise if we close below 19600. Market is currently in balance. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Slightly bearish but once this goes with some momentum above 20000 again that bearish bias is gone. Bears have the setup here and now and if they fail to break down below 19600 early next week I will view this as neutral or bullish if we go above 20100. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear gap and still having my preferred path down as a two legged correction down to 19000.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds