UK100 trade ideas
UK100 on the ropes despite good resultsWe have had a week full of negative news that has forced the FTSE100 index (Ticker AT: UK100) to cut its price from Monday to the Asian open by -3.70% and now at the European open it has rebounded by 1.36%. A possible military escalation between Iran and Israel has put the spotlight on the alert warnings in all markets and the Asian market experienced with a downbeat sentiment a possible affection for the technology and commodity market, on which the London index is so dependent. Gold prices fell by 3% in Asia-Pacific trading today and it is clear that commodities are having, never better said, "their golden moment" with so much military drama around the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The British index has a high bearish sentiment on a technical level among investors after the early morning. Today the UK government will issue retail sales and fuel sales releases with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Dave Ramsden's speech at midday. Currently the Bank Rate is at 5.25% and the inflation rate is at 3.2% aiming for the 2% target. It is very likely that the central bank will keep its rate as it is given that the inflation cut target seems to be working well and the change of governor will not take place until July 1st, so a continuation of policy is likely.
The corporate data facilitated the upward adjustment during yesterday's session and it is possible that it will try to recover that zone again today and next week looking for the most traded zone of the bell which is at 7,953.35 points, currently the price is at 7,831.70 points so there is still a range to recover the middle zone of last week. Its RSI is oversold at 45.20% so it would not be unusual to see another bullish attempt as we say today and during the next week.
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
2:1 FTSE Short1. Double top all time resistance high
2. Daily Break of Structure (BOS)
3. H4 50 & 100 EMA Crossover potential (i.e. turning down)
4. Price action retest of EMAs crossover
UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation SlowsUK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the CPI stood at 3.2% in March. According to ForexFactory, analysts expected 3.1%, and a month ago the index was 3.4%.
Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “Once again, food prices were the main reason for the fall, with prices rising by less than we saw a year ago. Similarly to last month, we saw a partial offset from rising fuel prices.”
Thus, actual inflation in the UK fell to its lowest level in two and a half years. According to Yahoo Finance, this weakening of inflation could influence the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates from the current level of 5.25% in June.
In anticipation of an easing of monetary policy, the values of the UK stock index UK100 increased yesterday. Today it is above the 7,900 level.
Technical analysis of the UK100 chart today shows that:
→ the price forms an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ the rise in the price of UK100 from the current week’s low forms a rebound from the support block, which is formed by the lower border of this channel and the former resistance 7,800.
At the same time, the bearish arguments remain powerful:
→ pay attention to the sharp rate of decline in A→B;
→ the UK100 price has broken down the intermediate trend line (shown in black).
Will the market be able to resume the rally indicated by the blue channel? Important information about the seriousness of bullish sentiment in the UK stock market can be provided by the behavior of the UK100 price, namely its ability to rise above the median line of the channel and above the level of 50% of the decline (A→B).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
📈 FTSE 100 Index Double-Top: Corrective Crash To ~6,000➖ Back in May 2018 the UKX produced a peak that led to a major crash a few years later, this was the All-Time High at the time.
➖ The ATH came in May 2018 followed by a long-term lower high January 2020.
➖ The lower high January 2020 signaled the start of the biggest corrective crash since 2008.
We have a similar situation when it comes to price action and chart patterns, as well as many signals to look at pointing toward a major, strong, hard correction.
➖ The UKX All-Time High came in February 2023.
This is marked on the chart with a rounded top pattern.
➖ Just last week, April 2024, the UKX produced a long-term lower high (more than a year long). This lower high can also be read as a double-top and this wouldn't change what the chart is saying; down!
➖ All the action since mid-2021 can be considered a consolidation phase.
➖ When the market crashes, we can say the entire period was a distribution phase.
➖ This week, active session, the UKX went full red and deleted three weeks of growth.
The bearish momentum is really strong and right now the UKX is hanging on support as EMA10.
➖ The RSI peaked in 2006, giving us an 18 years long bearish divergence; actually, it goes further back. The RSI hit an ATH in September 1989, giving us a 35 years long bearish divergence.
👉 The first, main and easy target sits around 7,150.
👉 The second target sits around 6,000.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
UK Stock Market Post Inflation Data, Where Next?UK Inflation readings just came in and the UK govt is raving about it. Well needed gratification is in order due to the current dire political situation (we won't talk politics)..
Their promise was to halve inflation and their positive sentiment/rhetoric along with US news yesterday is creating bullish atmosphere within the UK main Stock Market, the FTSE 100.
I mentioned previously about long entries, of which have progressed to the upside significantly:
This relied heavily on a Technical view with other Fundamental aspects in mind. Price Action in Markets must always be used as a means of identifying where traders and investors alike are entering and exiting the Market.
That's because if you are joining them it gives weight to your entries and their potential direction and movement further. This couples well with Market Sentiment which ultimately rules the Financial Markets and leads people to buy and sell.
The current rise is also giving way to technical approaches and sentiment, or Market Mood persists to the upside.
Looking for further entries and exits as stated in this video.
Watch to learn.
A short is about take place, bears are kicking in. @ price 7959.7 it is where I'm targeting to place a short, coz we are going to have a third touch at that highs trendlins & point 7959.7 when changing the candle sticks to ( Bars). You'll see that's where we have more opens buys at the very same zone.
FTSE Forms Bullish Hammer at 50% FibHaving broken through long-term resistance and come within touching distance of the February 2023 highs, the FTSE took a pause for breath last week pulling back from recent highs.
Pullbacks provide excellent opportunities for traders to position themselves within established trends at attractive levels of risk/reward, and the FTSE’s recent pullback has put trend continuation traders on high alert.
FTSE Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
If we take a closer look at the FTSE’s recent price action, we can see that on Friday the market sold off in the morning only to rally back into the closing bell – forming a bullish hammer candle .
This simple price pattern provides a useful signal to trend continuation traders that the market may be ready to resume its uptrend.
The location of Friday’s hammer candle is also significant. The candle formed at the 50% retracement of the breakout move. It also closed back above the volume weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the breakout lows.
Zoomed View: FTSE Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Risk Management
The FTSE daily rolling futures average true range (ATR) is currently 64 – meaning the index tends to move on average 64 points each day. Swing traders looking to hold their positions overnight should place a stop loss outside of the daily ATR. The stop should also be placed below the hammer candle lows.
On the economic calendar this week, Thursday’s European Central Bank decision on interest rates is likely to generate volatility across European and UK equities.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
UK100 is Ready For SHORT Positionuk100 /USDT is Going to get a good setup for SHORT POSITION
you can get this position with 0.2 LOT
Good Luck & dont forget to set SL & TP
Although UK-100 Index Is Near All-time HighsAlthough UK-100 Index Is Near All-time Highs, UK Economy Slips into Recession
Technically, a national economic recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, and yesterday's Office for National Statistics data confirmed that this has happened — UK GDP fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.
The Guardian writes that the recession may be deeper than it seems at first glance:
→ Increased government spending (including for the military) masks a deep and persistent decline in production.
→ The economy is shrinking despite population growth;
→ In the fourth quarter of 2023, the deficit widened to £26.3 billion, or 3.9% of GDP, up £5.9 billion from the third quarter.
→ The big problem is the decline in goods exports. Soaring prices for imported raw materials and energy have played a major role in increasing the cost of producing goods in the UK and making it difficult to sell them abroad.
However, the price of the UK-100 index (or FTSE-100) is near all-time highs. This is because the Bank of England may ease monetary policy to avoid worsening the recession. And this will be a positive factor for the development of the top 100 companies whose shares are included in the index — this expectation is included in the current quote.
The UK-100 Index chart shows that:
→ today the price of UK-100 is moving within an upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ demand forces are active at the lower border of the channel, quickly absorbing all declines (shown by arrows);
→ the bulls confirmed their dominance upon breaking through the 7,800 level, forming a strong cup-and-handle pattern;
→ the psychological level of 8,000 points prevents the bulls from maintaining the growth rate - when approaching it, the bullish candles become narrower. Buyer confidence is waning. This creates difficulties for the price to realize the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the channel.
It is possible that the upward trend, rooted in the fall of 2023, will continue with the formation of a correction before attempts to overcome the resistance block of 8,000-8,050. In this scenario, support for the UK-100 price may come from:
→ Fibo level 50% rollback from growth impulse A→B;
→ local support formed by intraday price action around the level of 7.888;
→ median line and/or lower border of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE100 And Price Action/ProbabilityThis chart is a clear display of how markets work in simple terms.
The fact is, your job is to look for repetition. Repetition directly correlates to probability, as it is your bread and butter for understanding what is next,
That is also, simply, the point of price action.
So when something happens so many times.. Do not be surprised if it happens again. And do not bank everything on it just because it is 'probable'.
Risk much be associated to the risk of the market setting and you must be prepared for a failure of any level with further risk plans.
uk100 long going long after the the end of the pullback came to an end the v formation was tested and held
FTSE 100 Trade Plan: Scenarios to ConsiderEarlier this month, we discussed subtle cues indicating the FTSE 100's readiness to break out. Fast forward three weeks, and the index has decisively broken free from its long-term range, surging over 150 points post the US Federal Reserve's reaffirmation of its rate-cut plans.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Where Next for the FTSE?
To gain perspective post-breakout, let's zoom out to the weekly candle chart. Here, we can see that the FTSE just broken through the May 2018 highs – an area that was briefly surpassed in February last year which printed a new all-time high for the index.
FTSE 100 Weekly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
FTSE 100 Trade Plan: Scenarios to Consider
Scenario 1: Swift Retest of All-Time Highs
If last week's bullish momentum continues, the market may head directly towards the February 2023 all-time highs. This could present short-term buying opportunities but could also lead to overbought conditions, offering potential for swing traders to sell on a retest.
Scenario 2: Sideways Consolidation
Alternatively, if the FTSE consolidates near highs for several sessions, chances of sustaining a breakout increase. Here, swing traders could position within the consolidation pattern.
Scenario 3: Deep Pullback
Should the FTSE quickly retract last week's gains, a break below Friday's lows might prompt a swift retest of the broken trading range's top, likely offering support moving forward.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Upcoming Trading Week WatchlistAn overview of all the pairs I am looking at for this trading week. Full breakdown in the video with analysis and explanations of what I will be waiting for before executing in the markets.
UK-100 Bullish SetupUK-100 is on the verge of Symetrical triangle breakout. We will buy it on the breakout confirmation and targets last high.Our stops wil be last Lower High.
UK100/FTSE: Two Corrections Complete, Time for Upward Wave!After enduring two corrections, the UK100/FTSE index appears poised for a significant upward wave, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
Market analysts anticipate a resurgence in bullish momentum as previous downward corrections conclude. With these setbacks behind it, the index is primed for renewed optimism and potential record-breaking performance. Investors are closely monitoring for signs of this anticipated upward surge, ready to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the UK stock market.
FTSE 100: In Focus on Inflation DataToday, the Bank of England will release key inflation data, and the British government will unveil industrial production figures, both crucial for the London index. While unfavorable inflation figures are anticipated, the British economy is showing financial resilience, propelling the index to 7,746.82 points following positive results from several companies since Wednesday, representing a 0.1% increase.
In the corporate landscape, the construction company Persimmon (PSN) stands out with solid financial fundamentals, a large land bank, and high-quality finished products. This may facilitate the company's benefit as the home-buying cycle recovers in the coming years, despite last year's results remaining stable.
In contrast, the insurance company Prudential (PRU) plummeted despite meeting 2023 objectives and believing it can achieve this year's goals. Its stock price halved, reaching 2012 levels, partly due to its high exposure to the Chinese real estate market. Luxury brand Burberry was also affected by the Chinese slowdown, as reflected in its stock following Gucci's announcement of a 20% decline in the Asian market in the first quarter of the year.
From a technical perspective, the index faces a crucial test at the 7,787.79 point level. It has been testing the current zone since yesterday, and it remains to be seen if it can continue to climb towards February 2023 prices. Will it surpass this level and close the annual gap at 8,044.32 points? Currently, if the long-term direction is bullish, we could see an attempt to reach the previous price zone of 7970.57, although an accumulation zone is yet to be developed.
Analyzing the RSI indicator suggests a slight overbought condition at 67.53%. The visible range volume profile shows a prominent double bell curve with a well-defined point of control at 7,685.50 points. These data could indicate a potential correction to the middle of the range that has been developing since November 2023, with its midpoint at 7,606 points.
Company Results Table
Bullish Companies:
• Ashtead Group (AHT) 5.532,00p 4,14%
• St James's Place (STJ) 434,10p 3,78%
• Halma (HLMA) 2.288,00p 3,62%
• Melrose Industries (MRO) 642,40p 3,48%
• Persimmon (PSN) 1.298,00p 2. 77%
• Airtel Africa (AAF) 93,05p 2,59%
• NATWEST GROUP (NWG) 246,00p 2,50%
• Croda International (CRDA) 4.835,00p 2,35%
• JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 112,80p 2,04%
• Kingfisher (KGF) 228,50p 1,92
Bearish Companies:
• Prudential (PRU) 731,00p -6,35%
• Burberry Group (BRBY) 1.181,00p -3,98%
• Smith & Nephew (SN.) 1.041,00p -1,61%
• Weir Group (WEIR) 1.970,50p -1,30%
• GSK (GSK) 1.645,40p -1,14% BP (BP. ) 492,90p -1,08%
• Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 240,70p -1,03%
• British American Tobacco (BATS) 2.389,50p -0,93%
• Convatec Group (CTEC) 283,20p -0,91%
• Unilever (ULVR) 3.893,50p -0,90
Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst
**********************************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
FTSE100 - Breakout Alert 7,743Yesterday's close on the FTSE 100 was a really good indication that the 7,743 level will likely hold.
The index first breached above this level eight days ago and then quickly retraced below it. After trading below this level for a few days, we're back up above this level.
This signals buying pressure paused and has since resumed. Assuming this level holds on any further retracements, this will signal further trend potential.
FTSE making a sustainable rally after bullish break-out.This is an update to our analysis 3 months ago (December 18 2023, see chart below) where we called for a Resistance bullish break-out and buy on the next 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) contact:
Even though the pull-back dipped some more, the index still followed our projection on a rough scale. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up but due to some relative readjustments because of that longer dip, we have to revise our target a little lower to 8150. That represents a +10.40% rise from the dip's lower point but still a 1.382 Fibonacci test (8350) is possible but in our updated view it will take longer to achieve.
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