US100US-100 NASDAQ
Bullish Channel as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
RSI - Divergence
Resistance Level
USATEC trade ideas
Nasdaq analysis: 04-Feb-2025Good morning, trading community! Today's Nasdaq analysis is for you. Share your thoughts, ask questions, and let me help you grow.
Market Analysis for nas100 (Sell)nas100 has broken through the fair value gap, confirming a strong bearish momentum and aligning perfectly with our trading strategy. This setup indicates a market imbalance correction, creating an optimal sell opportunity. With price action showing rejection from key resistance levels, we anticipate further downside movement. Stops are placed above the FVG for risk control, and targets are set at the next support zone. This is a textbook example of our strategic approach to capitalizing on market inefficiencies.
NAS100 SELL AT SUPPLY ZONE SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on Usdchf price form a supply around level of 21555.17 and is likely to continue moving down so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 19941.42, 18606.60 and 16868.43 . Use money management
NASDAQ 1D MA100 held. Strong rally ahead.Last week we took a look at Nasdaq's (NDX) Triangle and the buy signal that emerged on the short-term Support Zone (see chart below):
The signal turned out to be successful and the price eventually hit our 21800 Target and got rejected again on the Lower Highs trend-line.
Today an even stronger buy signal emerged, this time on a long term horizon as not only did the price touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the August 2024 Channel Up but also hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the 3rd test of this level in 2 weeks and the 3rd hold. Technically this is a Triple Bottom formation and one of the strongest buy signals. Two times already within this Channel Up we have seen Bullish Legs of +15.70%. As a result we can technically target 23700.
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NASDAQ a look ahead...As the NASDAQ and other major U.S. Equity Indexes face the pressure of economic uncertainty, the price action between days show that investors are not quite convinced this bull run has seen its finish line. However, we shouldn't only be looking toward private investor sentiment, but also that of the Federal Reserve's presence in the market and how the bond market reflects the Fed's position moving forward.
As shown here, the all time high for the TVC:NDQ is $22,133.22. Our position is that the NASDAQ must reclaim, retest, and continue beyond the all time high in order for us to continue our confirmation on the bull run. The path described should look as shown below...
In this instance, we can assume the bull run should continue. However, we should also be prepared for an alternate scenario where investors leave risk assets behind to chase non-risk assets (bonds for example). This scenario would look as shown below.
All though these are not the only two possible scenarios, we can most likely expect the future to play out in a similar fashion as the examples.
As for the market metrics to keep an eye on, look to TVC:US10Y for any bond yield manipulation, FRED:RRPONTSYD for market liquidity metrics, and FRED:M1V for M1 money velocity. Furthermore, keep an eye on tariffs for consumer tech ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NYSE:TSM ) and military activity ( NYSE:LMT , NYSE:RTX , NYSE:NOC ). Lastly, keep an eye on the banking and financial sector for more than likely banking deregulations withing the coming years.
NASDAQ 100 Continuation or Pull back?
NASDAQ 100 (US-100) – Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown
Weekly Timeframe
• Rising Parallel Channel: Price has trended upward within a channel since October 2022. Currently, it’s trading just below the channel’s mid-line but remains above the lower boundary near 19,800–20,000.
• Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The weekly structure is still bullish; no major breaks of structure to the downside. The most recent high around 22,100 stands, and the market could be forming its next higher low.
• Key Support Levels:
• Weekly Order Block @ ~19,000
• Horizontal Supports @ 16,600 & 14,000 (only relevant if a deeper correction unfolds)
• Moving Averages & Ichimoku:
• SMAs are sloping upward with healthy spacing.
• Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud, and the lagging span is above price, signaling a longer-term bullish trend.
• Momentum & Volatility:
• RSI @ ~57 (bullish zone, no overbought signals).
• MACD is above zero but histogram is red, indicating waning momentum, not a reversal.
• ATR > 20 EMA, reflecting heightened volatility.
Weekly Conclusion: While short-term momentum shows signs of fatigue, the broader uptrend remains intact. Key support converges around 19,800–20,000 if a deeper pullback occurs.
Daily Timeframe
• Market Structure & Order Blocks:
• Bullish OBs around 21,100–21,150 (currently under test) and 20,700–20,750 (aligned with the 100 SMA).
• A bearish OB near 21,700; a firm break above would reassert a bullish continuation.
• Ichimoku & SMAs:
• Price is inside the Ichimoku cloud (indecisive), with the lagging span dipping below price, hinting at short-term caution.
• Below the 50 SMA but hovering near the 100 SMA.
• Momentum:
• RSI ~48, under its midline—slightly bearish bias.
• MACD shows a recent bearish crossover, histogram under zero.
• ATR remains elevated, reflecting above-average volatility.
Daily Conclusion: The index is in a holding pattern between 21,700 overhead resistance and critical support around 20,700–21,100. A decisive break of either boundary could set the stage for the next trend move.
Intraday (4H & Below)
• 4H Structure:
• Short-term downtrend confirmed by lower lows, lower highs.
• Price sits below the 200 SMA, with 20 EMA also declining below the 50 SMA.
• Potential upside retracement toward 21,500–21,550 (liquidity zone and bearish OB) before the market decides its next move.
• 2H & 30m Observations:
• Bullish OBs were broken on the way down, reinforcing short-term bearish bias.
• If price reclaims 21,550–21,700, it might signal a bullish shift; otherwise, watch for selling pressure to resume.
Intraday Conclusion: While minor bounces are likely, the path of least resistance remains downward on lower timeframes unless price can reclaim key overhead levels.
Overall Bias & Key Levels
1. Long-Term (Weekly): Bullish structure remains, but momentum has cooled.
2. Mid-Term (Daily): Neutral/indecisive; price needs to either break above 21,700 or below 20,700 for a clearer directional cue.
3. Short-Term (Intraday): Bearish bias unless price convincingly pushes above ~21,550–21,700.
Crucial Support Zone:
• 20,700–21,100 – A break here on a daily closing basis could accelerate downside toward 19,800–20,000.
Potential Scenarios
• Bullish Continuation:
• Price stabilizes above 21,100 and breaks above 21,700.
• Could reignite the weekly uptrend and target new highs above 22,100.
• Bearish Breakdown:
• A firm close below ~20,700 signals deeper correction risk.
• Targets align near the weekly channel support around 19,800–20,000.
Trade & Risk Management Notes
• Short-Term Traders: May consider fading rallies into the 21,500–21,700 zone unless a solid breakout occurs.
• Swing/Position Traders: Watch for potential long entries on a strong bounce from 20,700–21,100 or around 19,800–20,000 if a bigger pullback emerges.
• Volatility: Elevated ATR readings advise caution with position sizing and stop placement.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately.
Feel free to leave a comment or hit “Like” if you find this breakdown helpful. Good luck and trade safe!
NAS100 BULLISH FOR 1000PIPSWhen someone says "ChatGPT bullish for 1000 pips," they likely mean that they are predicting a significant upward movement in a currency pair or financial instrument, in this case, around 1000 pips (percentage in point). A "bullish" stance typically refers to expecting the price to rise.
In forex trading, a pip is the smallest price movement that a currency pair can make. So, a 1000-pip move is a large price change.
For example, if EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1000, a 1000-pip upward move would mean the price reaches 1.2000.
In this context, "ChatGPT bullish" could be a playful or metaphorical way of saying "ChatGPT has a strong prediction that the price will rise significantly," although I don't have the ability to trade or predict financial markets directly.
us100 or nasdq is to sell for nowhi
good level for sell but with affordable stop
remeber is not sure but if you work with probabilities is a good one to short
NAS100- Time to buy!Nasdaq has recovered yesterday's crash and turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.692, MACD = 88.960, ADX = 31.397). The current rebound is taking place on the 1D MA50 and is a double bottom on the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance coming from the July 11th 2024 High. The same P1 level was seen supporting a year ago the January 5th 2024 Low. This hold ended in a rally to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. With even their RSI Channel Down patterns being identical, we expect a new bullish wave to start now, aiming the 1.5 Fib once again (TP = 24,000).
US100 Trade LogUS100 setup: Long position with "1:4 RRR" and "0.5% risk" based on accumulation and gap fill breakout.
- Entry within the "1H FVG" , targeting a push towards the "daily Kijun" .
- Structure confirms a potential continuation move, though risk remains controlled.
- Powell’s recent remarks and market liquidity shifts may fuel volatility.
- Stops placed below the accumulation zone; aiming for an extended move if momentum holds.
NAS100USD Will Fall! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,154.9.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 20,542.8 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Futures Plunge as Trump’s Tariffs Escalate Trade War FearsUSNAS100 Technical Analysis
The price is expected to test 21,215, and a 4-hour candle above this level must be closed to maintain a bullish outlook toward 21,380.
However, if the price stabilizes below 21,215, it will likely consolidate between 21,215 and 20,990 until a breakout occurs.
A sustained move below 20,990 will reinforce a bearish trend toward 20,670.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 21115
Resistance Levels: 21215, 21380, 21530
Support Levels: 20990, 20810, 20670
Futures Tumble as Trump's Tariffs Stoke Trade War Risks
U.S. stock index futures tumbled on Monday as fears of a full-blown trade war and its impact on the global economy rattled markets worldwide after President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
Over the weekend, Trump announced hefty new tariffs—25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China—stating that while these measures may cause "short-term" pain for Americans, they are necessary.
A bearish outlook for NASDAQ amid volatility and geopolitical - Key Insights: The NASDAQ is experiencing volatility, unable to recover its
December highs and aligning with broader bearish sentiment in tech shares.
Investors should watch key support levels for signs of a potential downturn,
especially given the weakening trends in major components like Nvidia which
significantly impact the index. The influence of a stronger US dollar amidst
geopolitical tensions warrants caution for tech investors in the current
market landscape.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are T1=20,500 and T2=20,300. Stop levels are
S1=21,000 and S2=21,200. This configuration suggests maintaining short
positions given current analysis and market sentiment.
- Recent Performance: The NASDAQ has recently shown a downturn of about 2.3%,
reflecting a mixed market performance as it struggles to find direction
while alongside downward trends in the S&P.
- Expert Analysis: Market experts emphasize the importance of tracking Nvidia's
stock movements and assessing the impact of competitive pressures on the
overall tech sector. The call for monitoring support levels is echoed, given
the potential for the index to face further corrections under current
economic conditions.
- News Impact: Recent headlines regarding Nvidia's competition and the overall
impact of a strong US dollar have heightened market volatility. Geopolitical
concerns related to international trade and tariffs continue to influence
investor sentiment, highlighting the need for vigilance in trading
strategies.
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Potential bearish reversalNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 21,179.71 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 21,382.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 20,777.93 which is a swing-low support.
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Continued growthAfter breaking off a bearish phase, the Nasdaq transitioned into a bullish one last week. The recent sell-off (27.01.25) managed or is currently settling above essential support at 20,559. As long as the price is above this barrier, the indice will continue to grow targeting established highs and making future highs.
NAS100 - Tariff War, the scourge of the stock market?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the indicated trend line, we can look for the next short-term buying positions in Nasdaq. The Nasdaq being in the demand range will provide us with the conditions to buy it with a reasonable reward to risk.
While the world remained focused on the first week of the Trump administration, a relatively unknown Chinese startup shocked the tech industry last week by releasing an open-source AI tool. This tool, developed with significantly fewer resources and at a much lower cost than its American counterparts like ChatGPT, has managed to match and, in some cases, surpass its U.S. rivals.
The startup, DeepSeek, has gone even further by making its tool freely available for download. Only those who wish to use the company’s API, which allows seamless integration with existing applications, are required to pay a fee—amounting to just 3% of the cost of competing tools.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. He pressured these nations to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Canada into the U.S.—a move that could reignite inflation and hinder global economic growth.
In response, Mexico and Canada, two of the U.S.‘s largest trading partners, immediately vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs. China, on the other hand, announced that it would challenge Trump’s decision at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and take additional “countermeasures.”
Under three executive orders, starting Tuesday, imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff, while Chinese goods will face a 10% levy. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by stating that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods starting Tuesday, followed by an additional $125 billion in tariffs three weeks later.
Trudeau warned that these tariffs would increase grocery and fuel costs for American consumers, potentially shut down auto assembly plants, and restrict the supply of nickel, potash, uranium, steel, and aluminum. He also urged Canadians to avoid traveling to the U.S. and boycott American products.
As investors looked for clarity from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Wall Street was left uncertain, now anticipating that the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged until late in the year.
NAS100 Bounces Off Key Support: Targeting 21,820PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is trading within a rising channel, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. The price recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, aligning with a significant support level. The structure indicates the potential for further upside, with the next target around the 21,820 level.
The bullish scenario assumes that the price maintains its momentum and respects the trendline support. A clear break and retest of the minor resistance zones along the way could confirm this upward movement. However, a break below the channel would invalidate this setup and suggest potential bearish pressure.
Let me know your thoughts or if you have an alternative perspective!
Nasdaq market analysis: 03-Feb-2025Good morning! Happy New Week! Happy New Month! Here's your daily Nasdaq market analysis. Learn, grow, and trade wisely.
Let's wait for Nasdaq buysPrice broke a major high creating a new one. It left behind a huge unmitigated imbalance and liquidities to be taken. Price is currently on a quest to fill this imbalance, take people's money and trigger our order for buys continuation. Stay active, use proper risk management because the market is not guaranteed to anyone!
Market Top? Considering the sharp decline in the Nasdaq during the Asian session on Monday, my current expectation is that prices should break below or reach around 20,300 before a meaningful rebound occurs, followed by a continued downtrend. This week, it is crucial to closely monitor market performance and adjust strategies accordingly.
Based on the price action from December to January, I believe there is a high probability of a major downturn ahead. However, if the price rebounds and breaks above 21,675, the current assumption will need to be reassessed.
Navigating NAS100 with Key Levels and Market SentimentKey Levels:
Resistance remains at 21,600–21,700, where price is struggling to sustain higher levels.
Support lies around 20,800–21,000, a strong buy zone on higher timeframes.
Fundamental Outlook:
With upcoming key data (FOMC and GDP), markets are likely to remain volatile.
A hawkish FOMC statement may lead to bearish pressure, pushing NAS100 lower toward the 20,800–21,000 support zone.
Conversely, dovish commentary or weak GDP figures could provide a bullish breakout above 21,600, targeting 21,800–22,000.
Rationale:
The price is testing a major resistance zone (21,600–21,700) but shows signs of hesitation and rejection on multiple timeframes.
A hawkish FOMC decision or commentary could trigger a sell-off, aligning with the probability of bearish momentum.
Action:
If price fails to break and hold above 21,600, short near 21,550–21,600.
Stop Loss: 21,700
Take Profits:
TP1: 21,300
TP2: 21,000
TP3: 20,800
Focus on a short position, especially if price fails to sustain above 21,600 during the London or New York sessions
Foundations of Mastery: 2025 Mentorship Begins!📢 Welcome to the 2025 Mentorship Program!
Greetings, Traders!
This is the first video of the 2025 Mentorship Program, where I’ll be releasing content frequently, diving deep into ICT concepts, and most importantly, developing structured models around them. My goal is to help you gain a deeper understanding of the market and refine your approach to trading.
Before we get started, I want to take a moment to speak to you directly.
💭 No matter where you are in your trading journey, I pray that you achieve—and even surpass—your goals this year.
📈 If you’re striving for consistency and discipline, may you reach new heights.
💡 If you’ve already found success, may you retain and refine your craft—because growth never stops.
🎯 If you’re just starting out, I pray you develop patience, discipline, and above all, accountability—because true progress comes when we own our failures and learn from them.
🔥 If you’ve been trading for years but still struggle with consistency, do not give up. The greatest adversity comes when you’re closest to success. Stay disciplined, stay dedicated, and keep pushing forward.
Above all, let this be a year where we grow together—not just as traders, but as individuals. May we foster humility, respect, and a learning environment where both experienced and new traders can share knowledge and thrive.
🙏 I pray over these things in the name of Jesus. Amen.
Let's have a great year!
The_Architect
