USATEC trade ideas
How important is the time frame when you investWe’ve been discussing the possibility of a recession in the US for some time now, along with tariffs and the impact of Trump’s policies. This has led to declines of up to 25% in the US NASDAQ index, sparking panic among many investors. When investing for the long term, it’s important to be aware of where we are within the same time frame as our investment horizon—a 25% drop in the short term doesn’t necessarily have to be a concern for long-term investors.
In this case, we can see that the NASDAQ has established a massive uptrend over the years. As long as the main trend levels remain intact, we can’t even say the market is moving sideways. The market has provided one of the best opportunities to enter the NASDAQ, bouncing right off previous highs and demonstrating the strength of the trend.
By buying in the previous highs or near the long term trendline, means a very low risk with returns up to 30%.
Technical Breakdown on US100 Cash CFD | 1H Timeframe1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 18,758.52
Value Area Low (VAL): Approx. 18,259.03
Point of Control (POC):
Recent Session POC: 18,758.52
Previous Session POC: 18,259.03
High-volume nodes: Clustered around 18,600–18,750 – area of high interest and possible re-accumulation.
Low-volume gaps: Below 18,300 – could act as fast-move zones on breakdown.
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Clusters:
Above 18,800 (recent swing high).
Below 18,250 (previous swing low).
Absorption Zones (Delta Volume Focus):
Strong absorption around 18,580–18,600; price has consolidated here indicating order filling.
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
High-volume swing low: 18,259.03 (POC) – strong buying response seen post drop.
High-volume swing high: 18,758.52 – rejection seen here on low follow-through.
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Currently Range-bound (CVD not showing clear accumulation/distribution trend).
ADX Strength:
ADX ≈ 18–20: Suggests weakening trend; possible sideways movement.
DI+ ≈ DI-: Confirms indecision.
CVD Confirmation:
CVD flattening at resistance suggests equal pressure from buyers and sellers.
No strong rising or falling trend in CVD; supports ranging bias.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
VAL: 18,259.03
Previous swing low/absorption: 18,300
Resistance:
VAH: 18,758.52
Rejection level: 18,800
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Confirmed Gann Lows: 18,259
Key Retracement Levels:
1/3 retrace from recent high: ~18,430
1/2 retrace: ~18,500
2/3 retrace: ~18,580
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend:
Range-bound (confirmed by ADX near 20 and mixed CVD).
b) Notable Patterns:
Bearish rejection at VAH zone.
Potential descending channel forming from highs.
Fake-out above 18,750 followed by rejection – possible liquidity grab.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: Near 18,300–18,350 (absorption + VAL zone)
Targets:
T1: 18,580
T2: 18,750
Stop-Loss: Below 18,250
RR: Minimum 1:2
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm downtrend):
Entry Zone: Near 18,750–18,800 (rejection area)
Target:
T1: 18,300
Stop-Loss: Above 18,850
RR: Minimum 1:2
c) Position Sizing:
Risk 1–2% of total capital per trade for optimal drawdown management.
Downtrend looks to be continuing with a new lower highAre we targeting a new lower low? Time will tell, but with every passing day the true nature of a sitting president full of hot air comes to light. The words that are spewed will have less and less gravity on the markets until his words are put out onto deaf ears and the markets can get back to a functioning state. When you hear a liar speak the first time you don't know the words are lies, but eventually you just stop listening to the nonsense because it all seems like lies after. Either way the words hold little punch. Shock and Shock is the ploy, I guess? I'm not shocked any longer and maybe the markets will get it too eventually.
Quick technical piece on Nasdaq100From the technical side, we are near the short-term downside resistance line, which if broken, may open the door towards higher areas. But will it be enough?
Let's take a look.
MARKETSCOM:US100
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Choose your Side- i often compare TheKing with Nasdaq right now.
- Have a main reason :
- NAS100 (Nasdaq) have mostly "Top Tech Companies" acting as Thermometers in this index.
- SPX (SP500) have Tech Companies + traditional ones. Nasdaq Companies are also included in SPX, but 500 Companies start to be a lot.
- DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is a Mastodons, i don't use it much because this top 30 is too mixed ( coca cola, boeing, techs, big banks, nike.. etc).
- i mostly use very high TFs, i prefer look from far, less noise, more easy and less headaches.
- i use sometimes to trade with 1D, H12, H4 TFs but when we are bullish. In bearmarket, it's hard to find entries points in bearish mode.
- i don't short markets and accumulate more coins/tokens, so i just DCA, Dollar Cost Averaging is investing a fixed amount of money into a particular investment at regular intervals.
- so this chart is basically only about MACD :
- it's really interesting to see Nasdaq making another red columns in 3W TF, while the markets should recover slowly.
- if you take a look at BTC, columns stayed in Light Red Color and reducing size.
What could it means ?
- Keep in mind that BTC is not a STOCK.
- One of the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain is the halving, when the supply of new bitcoins is cut in half (2024).
- BTC have 21M Supplies and that's all. no more will be created.
- At any time BTC could stop to follow Nasdaq and do his way, TheKing used to do that before already.
- A small bounce in Nasdaq could be also a huge move for BTC.
- " Choose your side " and DCA the money you don't need for living.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Mastering Volatile Markets: Why the Trend is Your Best Friend█ Mastering Volatile Markets Part 4: Why the Trend is Your Best Friend
In Part 1 , we covered reducing position size.
In Part 2 , we explored liquidity and execution strategies.
In Part 3 , we discussed the power of patience over FOMO.
Now,we're diving into one of the most important principles of all — especially in volatile, fast-moving markets: Follow the Trend. Trust the Trend. Trade With the Trend.
In wild markets like these, everything changes quickly. Indicators print overbought or oversold conditions well before the market even thinks about reversing.
Divergences can keep stacking up while the price continues trending for another 300, 500, or even 1000 points. Why? Volatility + Liquidity conditions = Extended trending behavior.
When liquidity is thin, and volatility is high, strong trends tend to last longer than usual:
Breakouts run further.
Breakdowns fall deeper.
And counter-trend trades? They're often a fast ticket to losses.
█ What Pro Traders Know Better Than Anyone:
In volatile markets, trend-following isn't optional — it's survival.
But wait, it is obvious that trends aren't perfect straight lines. So how can one even realistically “follow” a trend, especially in volatile markets.
Well, the key is to expect the unexpected. Experienced traders trade logically, we expect pullbacks, fakeouts, stop hunts, snapbacks and/or channel breaks. In fact, we prepare for them.
It is detrimental to assume the trend is over just because of these moves. Most of these are liquidity traps, not real reversals.
█ Here's What Pro Traders Do Differently:
⚪ They Identify the Core Trend Direction
Pro traders use price structure, trendlines, moving averages, VWAP , or higher timeframe levels to identify the trend direction. Once identified, every trade respects the trend.
Let me explain with an example.
→ Uptrend Identification:
Say you notice that the price of Gold (XAUUSD) has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows. What should you do?
You use the 100-period moving average (MA) and see that price is staying above it, indicating an uptrend. You wait for price to pull back to the MA, giving you a low-risk entry to join the uptrend rather than chasing the trend.
→ Downtrend Identification:
In a downtrend, USD/JPY keeps making lower highs and lower lows. You observe the 100-period moving average pointing down. This is your cue to look for short entries , avoiding countertrend buys that could trap you.
⚪ They ONLY Look for Entries at Key Trend Channel Levels
Professional traders don’t chase the price or try to catch every move. Instead, they patiently wait for price to return to key areas within a well-defined trend channel , either the upper boundary (in a downtrend) or the lower boundary (in an uptrend).
→ In an uptrend:
Pro traders draw a trend channel based on the price move. When price pulls back to the lower boundary of the channel (often aligning with demand zones), they start looking for long entries, aiming to trade with the trend and target a new high.
→ In a downtrend:
The same logic applies, but in reverse. Price pulls back to the upper boundary of the channel (supply area), offering a clean short opportunity to continue with the trend and target a new low.
But here’s what separates pros from amateurs:
→ They expect fakeouts, spikes , and temporary breaks beyond the trend channel — especially in volatile conditions.
→ They don’t panic when the price briefly moves outside the channel. Instead, they wait for confirmation signals (like a rejection candle, break of structure, or momentum shift) before entering.
→ This gives them both a logical entry point and a favorable risk-reward setup — aligning with the larger trend direction while staying protected if the trend fails.
⚪ They Treat Countertrend Moves as Opportunities to Enter WITH the Trend
When a countertrend move happens, pro traders see it as an opportunity to enter with the prevailing trend, rather than trying to catch a reversal.
→ Counter-Trend Move in an Uptrend:
Let's say S&P 500 is in a strong uptrend, and it experiences a sharp pullback of 5%.
While many retail traders panic and try to short the market, pro traders see this as a buying opportunity at a lower price, anticipating the trend will continue after the correction.
→ Counter-Trend Move in a Downtrend:
For Gold (XAU/USD) , if the price falls sharply from $1,900 to $1,850 and then retraces back to $1,875 (a previous support-turned-resistance level), pros see this as an opportunity to sell into the trend rather than buying into what could be a false recovery.
⚪ They Accept That Trends Can Look "Overbought" or "Oversold" for a Long Time
In volatile, trending conditions, RSI can stay above 70 for hours or even days, and divergences can build for a long time without price reacting.
→ RSI Above 70 in an Uptrend:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rallies from $40,000 to $60,000. Despite RSI being above 70 for a few days, pro traders don't fight the trend because momentum is strong. Instead, they look for a pullback to the 100-period MA for a safer entry.
→ Divergence in Downtrend:
The EUR/USD shows a bearish trend , but the RSI starts to build a divergence as the price keeps making lower lows. Pro traders ignore the divergence because the trend is still strong. They wait for a clear break of the trendline or confirmation that price has reversed before considering a long trade.
█ Summary of Part 4 — Trend is Your Best Friend
You can't control how far a trend will run…but you can control whether you're with or fighting against it.
And trust me, fighting a strong trend in a volatile market is a battle retail traders rarely win.
Here’s what you should take away from this article:
Volatile markets = Extended trends
Indicators can lie — trend structure tells the truth
Fakeouts & pullbacks are normal
Don't fight the trend — trade with it
Use counter-moves to enter the trend
Patience & trend-following = Survival + Profit
█ What We Covered:
Part 1: Reduce Position Size
Part 2: Liquidity Makes or Breaks Your Trades
Part 3: Patience Over FOMO
Part 4: Trend is Your Best Friend
That's it! You've now completed the Mastering Volatile Markets series.
Stay calm, adapt quickly, and trade smarter — that's how you survive (and thrive) in volatile markets.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NASDAQ Heading to 14K – WXY Correction UnderwayUS100 (NASDAQ) Technical Analysis
📆 Daily Chart (1D)
🧭 Updated: April 15, 2025
🟠 General Context and Structure
The price reached a high of 22,236.5, completing an ascending wedge (orange lines), which was broken down with strong volume and bearish momentum, signaling a change in the larger structure.
After the collapse from that high, the index formed what appears to be a W wave within a complex corrective structure (WXY), completing in the 16,176.3–16,992.2 range.
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure (Projection)
We are currently seeing the development of the upward corrective wave X, which appears to be structuring as a 5-wave impulse:
(1) and (2) already completed
Projection of (3), (4), and (5) with a target in the 21,025.9 area
After this upward movement, the start of a downward correction (a)-(b)-(c) is expected, which would complete the bearish wave Y of the broader WXY pattern.
🔍 Key Support and Resistance Zones
🔴 Major resistance: 22,239 – 22,236.5 (Highs and strong rejection zone)
⚪ Intermediate resistance: 20,356.6 and 21,025.9 (Potential targets for wave X)
⚪ Intermediate support: 18,523 (Zone where wave (4) could form)
🟢 Strong support:
16,992.2 and 16,176.3 (base of wave W)
14,054.4 (potential target for wave Y, critical point)
12,719.4 (extreme extension if the decline intensifies)
📉 Movement Projection
Current bullish reaction remains impulsive → wave (3) is underway.
Possible extension to 21,025.9 before a reversal.
Drop in 3 waves (a)-(b)-(c) towards:
🎯 First bearish target: 16,176
🎯 Second (final) target: approximately 14,580 (area marked as the end of wave Y)
⚠️ Conclusion / Trading Idea
We are seeing a complex WXY-type correction developing. The most likely scenario suggests a bullish continuation towards 21,025 to complete wave X, followed by a sharp drop towards the 14,580 area.
📌 Possible trading plan:
Swing long to 21,025 if the momentum is confirmed.
Strong short from that area, looking for targets towards 16,000 – 14,580 in the coming months.
🧭 Risk Management
Stop loss above the all-time high of 22,236.5 for short positions.
Bearish confirmation after reversal structure at 21k.
US 100 - Ranges overview Let's see what the charts are telling us on US 100.
Just like US 30 US 100 retraced and is currently in a redistribution phase.
From a HTF, as long as we hold 16771.6 expect us aggressively trade towards 19000 and 20500.
IF we fail to hold 16771.6 expect us to retrace towards the 16771.6 and 15201 range. Any clean close below 16771.6 and the market will aggressively seek the sellside liquidity around 15201.
As always WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO SHOW YOU ITS HAND.
Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
Hanzo | Nas100 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Nas100 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
———————
☄️ Main Focus: Bullish Breakout at 18600
We are watching this zone closely.
📌 If price breaks with high volume, it confirms Smart Money is in control, and a strong move may follow.
☄️ Main Focus: Bearish Breakout at 18400
We are watching this zone closely.
📌 If price breaks with high volume, it confirms Smart Money is in control, and a strong move may follow.
———
———
Analysis
👌 Bearish Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 18700
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 18400
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 18400 – Major support
➗ 19000 – Proven resistance
———
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 18700 – 🔥 Bearish breakout level
• 19130 – Strong resistance (tested 6 times)
• 18400 – Equal lows
• 3245 – Equal highs
———
🩸No rush. Only precision.
Hanzo moves in silence—then strikes with force.
🔻 Every warrior needs a tribe.
Follow Hanzo. Support the path.
QQQ FORECAST Q2 FY25: 13% RECOVERY APRIL FOOLSlike comment follow all the signals here are lit
comment your instrument below ill analyse it bonds crypto etf reits all dat paperwork
The recovery was swift exactly at our $16811 price level (great bargain) if you watched last call
now im calling bluff on this 90 day hype stop loss above entry targets set
there might be a bullish continuation by the mid point narrated by the path line
$17709 if confluence presents itself and necessary events present themselves im hopping out and longing these tariff games can go anyway in a heartbeat
NASDAQ Uprun ExpectedThe NASDAQ remains volatile, but has not yet undercut its lows from the beginning of the month. The correction since the explosive rise from the yearly lows remains within limits, and the market was able to recover quickly and significantly from today's lows.
We are therefore optimistic, at least in the short term, and are taking the long position shown up to the open gap.
The Interest Rates Paradox and How it'd Predict a Market Top NowIt is a common assumption that higher interest rates naturally slow economic expansion and cool overheated markets.
However, the historical record over the past 50 years tells a more nuanced story when it comes to bubbles. In several major crashes—the dotcom bubble, the U.S. housing bubble, and the Japanese Nikkei bubble—a pattern emerges: monetary authorities began increasing rates well before market tops were reached.
Surprisingly, instead of slowing the market in the short term, these rate hikes coincided with a parabolic run-up in asset prices .
The paradox lies in the fact that while rising rates are expected to dampen market exuberance, during these bubbles, they coexisted with—and arguably even fueled—frenzied market behavior.
This paradox has played out yet again over the last years. With us seeing not only the parabolic rally phase during the interest rate hikes but also us having a current agreement with the interest rates and equites topping at the same time. As with all previous market tops. As we sit here today, we have followed the interest rate topping paradox to the letter.
Let's look more into it.
Historical Patterns and the Paradox
The Early Phase: Initial hikes into a heating up market.
In each of these historical cases, central banks initiated rate hikes as part of a broader strategy to temper what they viewed as emerging economic imbalances. In the late 1980s, for instance, the Bank of Japan began tightening monetary policy as asset prices soared, anticipating overheating in the economy. Despite these early rate increases, the Nikkei continued its upward trajectory, ultimately reaching its peak in December 1989. This pattern was echoed in the U.S. during the dotcom era. Leading into the 2000 peak, the Federal Reserve started to raise rates to control inflationary pressures—even as the technology-heavy market rallied to unsustainable heights.
The pattern has always been similar. Markets are starting to get hot and perhaps there's some unwanted consequence of this (like inflation). So the central bank takes actions to cool things down with the interest rate hikes. Although there have been reactions from this in the near term, overall the trend has become stronger and stronger during the hike cycle.
Let me give you an example to add some context. Alan Greenspan is famous for the "Irrational exuberance" comment. He said that in 1996! The Nasdaq absolutely boomed from there for another 4 years. What had happened before was nothing compared to what came after the interest rate hikes started.
The Parabolic Reaction: Markets Defy Conventional Logic
What seems paradoxical is that rather than a smooth deceleration, markets often reacted to these rate hikes with an intensified speculative fervor. During the dotcom and housing bubbles, small increases in rates did not immediately curb investor optimism; instead, they appeared to add urgency, fueling a belief that the market was resilient enough to outperform despite higher borrowing costs. The market’s parabolic rise in asset prices during periods of tightening monetary policy is counterintuitive, suggesting that investors were less influenced by the immediate cost of capital and more driven by momentum and fear of missing out.
By the high of these rallies it was firmly believed that this was a sign the uptrends would continue. Indeed, they could only get stronger as the interest rates came back down.
....Nah uh. Wasn't how it went all!
And we find ourselves in a strongly similar situation now in 2025.
Leveling Off and the Market Peak
It gets weirder still when you notice rather than markets slowing down on rate cuts they highs of the equites rallies always came rate increases eventually plateau.
Historical data shows that when interest rates stabilized—often within a narrow band of around 5% to 6.5%—this stabilization coincided with the market reaching its absolute peak. In these instances, the plateau did not signal the end of the monetary tightening cycle; rather, it marked the culmination of the bubble. Market participants, having pushed prices to their limits, were suddenly confronted with a reversion, as the underlying economic fundamentals could no longer justify the inflated asset values.
Knowing what happened before does not let you know what will happen in the future, but it's worth knowing. It may well just end up being useful in the future. In every instance of a big market top in the last 50 years the pattern was interest rate hikes and parabolic rallies in this phase, when the hikes stopped the first market sell off began.
We have an exact matching of these conditions now.
The Bear Market and Rate Easing
Once the market had peaked, and the bubble burst, central banks found themselves in a difficult position. In response to the ensuing economic downturns, monetary authorities were compelled to cut rates dramatically—even as equity markets remained subdued. This rapid reduction in rates was aimed at stabilizing economies and stimulating recovery, yet it often came too late to salvage the once-insatiable market exuberance. The inversion of the earlier paradox—where rate hikes were accompanied by soaring markets—serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of monetary policy in times of speculative excess.
All you have to do is look at any of the interest rate charts for the crash in question and it's clear to see these both peaked and reversed around the same time. During bubbles, historically correlation with equities and interest rates is close to prefect. From the start of our interest rate hikes to now, this has continued to apply.
A play out of the historical norms for this would now see rates continue to drop with equities dropping alongside them (Overall, maybe rallying on the news now and then).
Which would make this a rather risky time to be buying the dip.
=================================
Realistic Examples of the Paradox
=================================
Nikkei Bubble (Late 1980s):
Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan initiated rate hikes to cool a rapidly expanding economy and soaring asset prices.
Market Behavior: Despite these increases, the Nikkei continued its parabolic climb, peaking in December 1989.
Aftermath: Following the bubble’s burst, rates were cut sharply as the market entered a prolonged bear phase.
Dotcom Bubble (Late 1990s to 2000):
Monetary Policy: In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates before the bubble reached its zenith.
Market Behavior: Rather than curbing exuberance, the rate hikes coincided with an acceleration in market gains, contributing to an unsustainable rise in tech stock valuations.
Aftermath: The eventual plateau in rates occurred as the market hit its peak, soon followed by a dramatic downturn when investor sentiment shifted.
U.S. Housing Bubble (Mid-2000s):
Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s gradual rate increases were part of an effort to moderate the housing market’s explosive growth.
Market Behavior: Housing prices continued to rise, reflecting an underlying confidence in the market that outpaced the modest increases in borrowing costs.
Aftermath: When rates eventually leveled off, the market was near its peak, and subsequent rate cuts during the bear market underscored the stark reversal of fortunes.
NAS100 Update - Potential TargetsDear Fellow Traders,
How I see it:
NASDAQ Stocks will remain in a sell off phase this quarter.
My "BEARISH" targets in case "DAILY TREND RESISTANCE" holds -
* TP1 & TP2 as indicated.
My "BULLISH" targets in case "DAILY TREND RESISTANCE" is breached -
* TP1 & TP2 as indicated.
KEYNOTE:
Bullish TP 2 = 78.60% FIB retracement from ATH
Feel free to ask if anything is unclear.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
NASDAQ Best 2 Places For Buy Cleared Now , Don`t Miss It !Here is my opinion on NASDAQ And for who want to buy it , here is my best 2 places for buy , First One if we have a 4H Closure Above This Strong Res that pushed the prices yesterday 500 pips , and second place will be the support that clear in the chart , but i prefer the first one cuz it will be a strong confirmation if we have a good closure above .
This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.