Nas100 updateTechnical Analysis:
Trend:
• The market is still in an overall uptrend, given the ascending channel structure.
• However, the recent break below the midline and rejection at the upper boundary suggest possible short-term bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
1. Support:
• 21,200–21,220: Current price level and a critical area to hold. A break below could lead to further downside.
• 20,766 (blue horizontal line): Major support and a previous demand zone. A test of this level is possible if the bearish pressure continues.
2. Resistance:
• 21,500: The midline of the channel and the 50-period MA align here, making this a key resistance zone to watch.
• 21,800–22,212: The upper channel boundary and previous swing highs. Price needs to break above this to regain strong bullish momentum.
Moving Averages:
• Shorter MAs (blue lines) are crossing below longer MAs (red lines), suggesting bearish momentum in the short term.
• The 200-period MA (thicker red line) is still acting as dynamic support, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary, adding confluence to the 20,766 level.
Possible Scenarios:
1. Bullish Case:
• If the price bounces from 21,200–21,220 and breaks back above the 21,500 resistance zone, it could retest 21,800 and potentially the channel’s upper boundary near 22,200.
• Entry: After a bullish breakout and retest above 21,500.
• Target: 21,800 and 22,200.
• Stop Loss: Below 21,200.
2. Bearish Case:
• If the price fails to hold 21,200, a move down to the 20,766 support zone is likely.
• A break below 20,766 could invalidate the ascending channel, leading to further downside toward 20,400 or lower.
• Entry: On a clean break and retest below 21,200.
• Target: 20,766 and 20,400.
• Stop Loss: Above 21,500.
Indicators to Watch:
• Volume: Look for increasing volume during key breakouts or breakdowns.
• RSI/MACD: Watch for divergence signals to confirm potential reversals near critical levels.
Conclusion:
The market is at a critical juncture. The reaction at 21,200 will determine whether bulls regain control or bears push the price lower toward the 20,766 support zone. Stay cautious and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
