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Nasdaq Tactical Short Trade Idea Update A relief rally for US equity markets o/n as investors continued to juggle two key uncertainties. The first is the magnitude of the Feds anticipated rate cut at next week's meeting. The second is the uncertainty surrounding the US election, with recent polls showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race. In the next 40 hrs, we may gain insight into both uncertainties. The second US Presidential debate is set for tomorrow at midday Sydney time. A decisive debate win by one candidate might stabilise markets as voters and betting markets rally behind a frontrunner. The opposite is also true if there is no clear winner. Secondly, US CPI data is scheduled for release on Wednesday night at 10:30 pm, which can help shape expectations around the size of the Fed's first-rate next week. Last Monday, we moved to tactical short bias in the Nasdaq 100 (published on TV on Sep 4). The short recommendation was based on the idea that the correction in the Nasdaq 100 from the 20,690 high to the August 17453 low was missing a leg lower towards the 18,000/17,700 support area (coming from the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from the December 10,671 low) against the seasonally weak backdrop of September. There is a possibility of downside overshoot towards support at 17,000, a wave equality target. We have lowered our bearish reassessment level from 19,750 to 19,450 – just above last week’s high. You can watch this week's video update ⬇️ www.youtube.com
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by IG_com
Important Support and Resistance Zones: 18788.2-18898.9 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The StochRSI indicator has not escaped the oversold zone. And, since StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, I think it is not a trading period. Therefore, the key is whether it can rise above the left Fibonacci ratio 1.902 (18788.2) ~ the right Fibonacci ratio 0.786 (18898.9) and receive support. If not, 1st: 17854.8-18250.3 2nd: Right Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (17141.4) You need to check whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above. In the worst case, I think the final range is around 16123.5-16322.6. - If it rises above the left Fibonacci ratio 1.902 (18788.2) ~ right Fibonacci ratio 0.786 (18898.9) and receives support, 1st: 19582.6 2nd: 20313.8 You can trade depending on whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above. - Have a nice time. Thank you. --------------------------------------------------
OANDA:NAS100USD
by readCrypto
Thesis Generation for mutitimeframe SB Style Trading explainedIn this video, I guide you through the complete process of generating a trading thesis and selecting pairs for my shortlist. We'll begin with a theoretical explanation and then apply it to today's NAS situation. My analysis incorporates the Stacey Burke trading style alongside a mechanical multi-timeframe bias analysis. A consistent and clear analysis process, repeated daily, is crucial for continuous improvement. I hope you find this helpful!
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by TC888
USNAS100 / Bearish Outlook before Inflation DataNasdaq Technical Analysis The Nasdaq price has declined and stabilized below the pivot range of 18640, indicating a bearish trend. As long as the price remains below 18640, further downside is expected, with a potential target at 18340. A break below this level could extend the bearish trend. For a bullish reversal, the price would need to stabilize above 18640, with an upward move towards 18930. Key Levels: Pivot Range: 18630 Resistance Levels: 18800, 18930, 19210 Support Levels: 18340, 18150, 17890 Expected Trading Range: 18150 - 18680 Trend: Bearish while below 18640.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
Market is always rightHello, We've seen a huge red wave, that we all thought was an over reaction and just when we thought it was nothing and we're going back up, we got hammered again, and I expect now the first wave was a warning of what's to come, and the coming year, we might see things getting worse before getting better, market is always right, don't fight it, just wait for it to be over and then long again, patience is key. From now on, i'm only interested in pullback in order to short again, till 17,800 maybe. Something bigger than our understanding is going on, and i won;t go into the details, do your own research but it is indeed reflected in the technical analysis. Good luck everyone and hopefully i'm just wrong since i'm mainly an investors buying stocks, but that's my predictions for now.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by marouuuuuun
NASDAQ Is an August Low re-test inevitable?Nasdaq (NDX) got heavily rejected last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost reached on Friday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That was the level that was brutally breached on the August 05 Low, which only found Support on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and rebounded. Technically those last two MA trend-lines are the long-term Buy Zone of the 2-year Channel Up that started after the October 13 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Based on the last two major Higher Lows of that pattern though, it is possible for the index to re-test that August Low as it happened both on December 28 2022 (re-test of the October 13 2022 Low) and September 27 2023 (re-test of the August 13 2023 Low). The latter in fact dived on a 3rd wave a little lower to test the 1D MA200, but this time, this condition has already been met (1D MA200 already tested). This Low re-test tendency is also evident on the 1D RSI fractals among the Higher Lows sequences. If that scenario is materialized, it would give us both a big bullish and a big bearish development. From the bullish side, a 17300 re-test would form an exact Higher Low at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up, which is positive as it will fulfil a strong bullish condition to move forward. On the bearish side though, that would mean a breach of the 1W MA50, which technically would be very negative, unless the 1W candle that will break it, manages to close the week above it on a strong bounce. Until then, lets initially see if the 1D MA200 holds (currently early in the day/ week it does) as if the price reverses here, we can technically have a bottom similar to October 26 2023. In any case, Nasdaq is just above the 1st long-term Buy Zone currently. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100 NASDAQ👀👉 The NAS100 has broken key structural support on the daily and 4-hour charts, signaling potential bearish momentum with the NASDAQ. I expect this downward move to extend towards previous lows, as highlighted on the chart. However, my approach is to wait for a bullish retracement early in the week, aiming to catch a reversal that confirms an entry for a short position. It's important to note that this analysis is based on probabilities, not certainties. Always wait for price confirmation before executing any trades, as discussed in the accompanying video. The analysis provides a comprehensive overview of current price action, trend direction, and market structure. Keep in mind, this is for educational purposes only. Trading carries inherent risks, so make sure you have a solid risk management plan in place at all times. 📈✅
FX:NAS100
by tradingwithanthony
1
short There are several reasons why NASDAQ 100 (US100) could potentially drop to the levels of 17750 and 17212, based on technical and fundamental analysis. Here's a breakdown: 1. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The levels 17750 and 17212 could correspond to key Fibonacci retracement levels. When markets experience a sharp upward trend, they often retrace back to critical support levels. A retracement to 17750 might indicate a 50% retracement, a common support level where markets consolidate or bounce after a pullback. The 17212 level could represent a deeper retracement, potentially around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is often seen as a strong support zone in technical analysis. 2. Technical Patterns: Bearish patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, or broadening wedges could indicate further downward movement. If 17750 represents a short-term support level and the market breaks below it, 17212 could be the next target, especially if market sentiment remains bearish. 3. MACD and RSI Signals: If momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are signaling overbought conditions or have recently crossed bearish signals, this could suggest further downside. A significant drop in RSI below 30 could indicate that the market is moving into oversold territory, but before it gets there, the price might test these lower support levels. 4. Fundamental Factors: Rising interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have a negative impact on tech stocks, which dominate the NASDAQ 100. Higher borrowing costs hurt high-growth companies more significantly, as they rely heavily on cheap financing for expansion. Additionally, inflationary pressures may force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, which could further depress growth-oriented stocks. Any signs of economic slowdown or a looming recession could also weigh on NASDAQ 100, prompting further selling pressure and causing the index to drop to key technical support levels. 5. Market Sentiment and Valuation: There has been growing concern over the valuation of tech stocks, especially those driven by the AI boom, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and others. If there’s a shift in sentiment or investors start to question these valuations, a broader correction in tech stocks could follow. JPMorgan and other financial institutions have warned that the tech rally could be overextended, suggesting a potential bubble. If that bubble bursts, the NASDAQ 100 could see a significant correction. 6. Geopolitical Risks and External Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade conflicts, energy crises, or conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war) could create risk-off sentiment in the market, leading investors to move away from riskier assets like NASDAQ 100 into safer havens like gold or bonds. Supply chain disruptions in tech industries or tightening regulations could also negatively impact earnings growth and valuations, accelerating a move downward. 7. Previous Historical Support Levels: 17212 might correspond to a significant historical support level where the index previously found a bottom during past corrections or crises. If the market approaches this level again, it would likely act as strong support, but a breach could lead to further declines. Summary A drop to 17750 and potentially 17212 would likely be driven by a combination of technical retracement, weakening market sentiment, and fundamental pressures such as rising interest rates, a tech valuation correction, or broader economic concerns. These levels could represent key support zones where the market either consolidates or rebounds, depending on the prevailing sentiment and external conditions.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by fotbalistarb
Weekly Analyses and Recap: Will the bulls or bears prevail ??Sep 9 - 13 2024 Welcome Traders to another weekly analyses and recap post. On Thursday Aug 22nd price signalled a Daily LH at 19,946.6 after which it began to sell. Price has been selling for 2 full weeks now where the Daily HL currently sits at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Week 3 will be the telltale if price will continue to signal a weekly HL or respect the Daily HL at the 61.8%. Previously, when the weekly HL was completed on Aug 4th at 17,239.4 price had sold for 3 full weeks. By the end of Week 2 (July 21-28) the Daily HL was sitting at the 78.6% retracement level after which it made a bullish correction. However this correction was short lived because on Tuesday July 30th of Week 3, price respected a level of resistance at 19,236.6 and continued its downtrend breaking below the Daily HL of week 2. This was confirmation that price was not respecting the 78.6% retracement level and would continue to sell until the weekly HL was signalled. History usually repeats itself and so using that knowledge, for this week I will be watching keenly to see whether price breaks below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday. So last Friday Sep 6th, price made an indication - a new low or Daily HL at the 61.8% retracement level using my fib tool. Price is currently making a bullish correction until it eventually reaches a level of resistance. This resistance level can potential be 19,111.7 - 19,236.6 where price previously respected. Once price respects a resistance level, it will then make a new low which for me will be the indication on whether price wants to continue bearish for a third week or commence its uptrend. Understand that in any given trend, price must make a series of Highs and Lows but where these highs and lows fall relative to previous will be the indication of which type of trend the market is in. For an uptrend, price must not break below the low of 18,310.5 from last Friday which will act as a key support. Therefore, a HL will be the indication of a reversal to an uptrend. For a downtrend, price must respect the resistance level from the previous week (19,111.7 - 19,236.6) and break below 18,310.5 at the close of the previous weekly candle. If a LL forms on the smaller TFs this means that the Daily HL will continue to retrace down to the 78.6% retesting the previous weekly HL. On my chart I have highlighted two TP areas where price can continue to retrace if we get a third week of retracement: - 17,640.5 which is the 78.6% reracement level on the Daily TF - 16,807.9 which is not only a retest of the previous weekly HL but also the point at which the monthly HL should signal. If price reaches here, this would mark the first monthly HL since October 2022. (price has essentially been on a strong uptrend for over 2 years). With that being said, I will not be taking any trades on Sunday and Monday as I will be observing price action accordingly to decipher the trend for the rest of the week. Happy Trading Everyone. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask
OANDA:NAS100USD
by jhannellefrancis