Sell on Nas100We are heading for the Friday settlement price, being the 1614hrs candle then Weekly opening gap
USATEC trade ideas
Sells On Nas100 We are heading for the Friday settlement price, being the 1614hrs candle then Weekly opening gap
NASDAQ Analysis: Navigating Uncertainty in a Shifting LandscapeThe NASDAQ has been on a rollercoaster ride lately 🎢, reflecting both global macro shifts and sector-specific dynamics. After dipping into bear market territory earlier in the year, the index has rebounded strongly, powered by mega-cap tech and the ongoing AI boom 🤖. However, the mood remains cautious as investors weigh political and economic cross-currents. Note how price action is stalling at the current level.
Fundamentals & Earnings 💼
Earnings Resilience: Q1 2025 earnings for NASDAQ heavyweights were robust, with tech giants posting double-digit growth. Yet, forward guidance is more muted, as companies brace for the impact of higher tariffs and global supply chain adjustments.
Valuations: The recent rally has pushed forward P/E ratios well above long-term averages, making the market more sensitive to any negative surprises 📈.
AI & Innovation: Capital expenditure on AI is set to exceed$300 billion this year, keeping the sector in the spotlight and fueling optimism for long-term growth.
Political & Geopolitical Factors 🌍
Trade Policy: The U.S. and China have agreed to a temporary pause on new tariffs, easing some immediate concerns. However, the average effective tariff rate remains much higher than last year, and uncertainty lingers as legal challenges and further negotiations loom.
Fiscal Policy: U.S. deficit worries are back in focus, with new legislation projected to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade. This has contributed to higher Treasury yields and a weaker dollar 💵.
Global Competition: International equities have outperformed U.S. stocks over the past six months, but history suggests this may be stretched, and a reversal could be on the horizon.
Market Sentiment & Technicals 📊
Volatility: While volatility has eased from its spring highs, sentiment remains fragile. Consumer and business confidence indices are at multi-year lows, even as hard economic data (like jobless claims) remains resilient.
Sector Rotation: Growth and cyclical sectors—especially tech, consumer discretionary, and industrials—have led the rebound, but investors are increasingly selective, favoring companies with strong fundamentals and global reach.
Outlook: The NASDAQ is cautiously optimistic for the second half of 2025. The market is pricing in a couple of Fed rate cuts by year-end, but the path forward depends on inflation trends, trade clarity, and corporate earnings.
Key Takeaways 🚦
The NASDAQ is in recovery mode, but faces headwinds from trade policy, fiscal uncertainty, and stretched valuations.
Political developments—especially around tariffs and fiscal policy—will be key drivers of volatility.
Long-term, the AI and tech innovation wave remains a powerful tailwind, but near-term caution is warranted.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets are volatile and subject to rapid change. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NAS100 - Stock market awaits an important week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in the specified pattern. If it does not rise again above the broken trend line, I expect a correction.
If the index returns above the broken trend line, we can expect a new ATH to be recorded on the Nasdaq. It is better to wait for confirmation on the breakout in order to control further risk.
Last week, U.S. stock markets—particularly the Nasdaq index—experienced significant volatility, driven by a combination of economic and geopolitical factors:
• A reduction in trade tensions due to ongoing U.S.-China negotiations
• The release of inflation indicators
• Heightened geopolitical tensions
According to Politico, as G7 leaders meet in Canada, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran will top the agenda. Politico reported that leaders of the free world have gathered in the Rocky Mountains to discuss the very real threat of a full-scale war in the Middle East. The initial sessions of the G7 summit will take place in Kananaskis, where the worsening Israel-Iran conflict will be the primary focus. Donald Trump, who in recent days has fueled tensions through social media, is now expected to join discussions aimed at de-escalation.
On the economic front, lower-than-expected inflation in May could encourage the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner than markets had previously anticipated. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation rose 2.4% in May compared to a year earlier. Housing costs were identified as the primary driver of this inflation, while price increases in categories most affected by high tariffs were not as pronounced as economists had expected. So far this year, the Fed has refrained from cutting its benchmark interest rate, citing concerns that tariffs might push consumer prices higher. While the likelihood of a rate cut at this week’s meeting remains low, the latest report could ease some of these worries and accelerate the timeline for potential cuts.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that a growing group of President Trump’s advisers is urging him to consider Besant for the Fed chair position. Jerome Powell’s current term extends until May 2026, and he was originally nominated by Trump in November 2017. Other names reportedly under consideration include Kevin Warsh (considered a favored candidate), Kevin Hassett (head of the White House National Economic Council), Christopher Waller (a current Fed board member), and David Malpass (former World Bank president).
After a week dominated by U.S. inflation data, investor attention in the coming days will shift toward central bank decisions and potential signals regarding the future path of interest rates. The trading week kicks off Monday with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, offering an initial snapshot of the industrial sector in New York. Later that day, the Bank of Japan will announce its first interest rate decision, an event that could shape Asian market trends and the yen’s valuation.
On Tuesday, May’s U.S. retail sales data will be released—a key indicator of consumer strength. Signs of weakness in this report could bolster expectations for rate cuts. Wednesday will be the focal point of the week, as the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. While markets have already priced in a pause in tightening, investors will scrutinize Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on the likelihood of rate cuts in the months ahead. Additionally, data on May housing starts and weekly jobless claims will also be released that day.
On Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth, attention will turn to monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Changes in tone or interest rates from these key European central banks could influence currency market volatility. Finally, the week will conclude Friday with the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index—a leading indicator closely watched by traders for insights into the health of the manufacturing sector in the U.S. East.
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices
1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices
Inverse Relationship:
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues.
Current Data (June 13, 2025):
10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases.
Term Premium:
The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed.
2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation
Negative Correlation Generally Observed:
The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities.
Recent Trends:
In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies.
Risk Sentiment:
The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety.
3. US100 and Bond Prices
Indirect Relationship via Yields:
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling).
Safe-Haven Demand:
In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline.
4. Yield Curve and Market Implications
The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks.
A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100.
Conclusion
The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par.
The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks.
The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs.
The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities.
#NAS100 #DOLLAR
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Approaching a pullback resistanceThe Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 21,719.73 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 21,870.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 21,477.88 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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Smart money NASDAQ analysis
🚦 SMART MONEY SIGNAL – NASDAQ H4
You're on the 4-hour (H4) timeframe.
Price tapped the 200 EMA (white line) — commonly seen as a Smart Money Demand Zone.
Strong bullish candle formed = possible rejection from an institutional level.
RSI at 47 = neutral zone, still room to go higher.
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📊 Smart Money Interpretation:
🟢 Market Structure:
Liquidity sweep below (stop-loss hunt under 200 EMA).
Bullish rejection candle = clear sign of Smart Money involvement.
🔻 Liquidity Grab:
Price broke the recent low then quickly reversed = manipulation phase complete.
Likely H4 Bullish Order Block formed (area of institutional buying).
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✅ Entry Signal (Buy Setup)
🔹 Direction: Buy / Long
🔹 Entry Zone (Buy Limit):
🔸 Between 21,650 and 21,680
🔹 Stop Loss:
🔸 Just below the wick = 21,570
🔹 Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 21,900
TP2: 22,000
> Targeting imbalance fill + possible structure break
🔹 Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 to 1:3 (solid for Smart Money setups)
---
🔁 Entry Confirmation (Lower Timeframe):
Wait for price to pull back into the H4 Order Block.
Look for M15 or M5 bullish reaction (pin bar or bullish engulfing).
RSI > 50 on M30 or H1 = momentum confirmation
🧠 Pro Tip (Smart Money Style):
Draw the H4 Order Block (last bearish candle before the move up). If price returns to this area and shows a strong bullish reaction — you’ve got a high-probability institutional entry. Talion-promosale
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POSSIBLE BUY OPPORTUNITY ON NAS100Price starting to range in what seems to be an uptrend. We look for a location of unfilled orders to join the trend!
Triple Top Trouble? NAS100 May Be Losing SteamThe NAS100 has formed a potential triple top, and key trendlines are starting to break to the downside. This could signal a short-term correction before bulls attempt another push for new highs. A temporary drop might offer a better long setup if momentum resets.
My trade idea on NASDAQ 100 For the coming week I'm seeing NAS100 dropping lower to pull/draw on liquidity below there heading to where we have what looks like a strong POI...
Drop your comment below if you're seeing something totally different from what I'm seeing here and lets have a discussion about our views.
NASDAQ - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25On the NQ around 21,638, I’d estimate roughly:
Rally up through 22,248 first ~60%
Slide down through 21,024 first ~40%
Why?
Up-trend bias: Since the April low (≈16,000), the market has been in a strong rally, clearing multiple interim highs.
Resistance vs. support: 22,248 has capped rallies twice (Jan & Feb), so a break would be bullish but not guaranteed. Meanwhile 21,024 flipped to support in late May.
Momentum: The recent pullback from 22,000 was shallow, and daily MACD/RSI remain in bullish territory, suggesting a higher chance to retest the upper line before failing.
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices
1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices
Inverse Relationship:
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues.
Current Data (June 13, 2025):
10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases.
Term Premium:
The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed.
2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation
Negative Correlation Generally Observed:
The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities.
Recent Trends:
In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies.
Risk Sentiment:
The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety.
3. US100 and Bond Prices
Indirect Relationship via Yields:
Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling).
Safe-Haven Demand:
In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline.
4. Yield Curve and Market Implications
The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks.
A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100.
Conclusion
The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par.
The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks.
The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs.
The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities.
#NAS100 #DOLLAR
NAS100\ Bullish Play DevelopingNasdaq holds a strong bullish structure on the 4H, so I moved down to the 15-minute for a cleaner bird’s-eye view of price action. Liquidity was swept directly into a refined order block — a precise tap that validated the zone.
Price is now hovering around a 5-minute OB. Just observing and letting the market unfold.
Discipline and patience — that’s where the edge is.
— Inducement King 👑
Bless Trading!
CHECK US100 SIGNAL READ CAPTAINus100 sell now ✅
entry point (21650) (21620)
TAKE PROFIT 1: (21550)
TAKE PROFIT 2: (21400)
LAST TARGET (21300)
STOP LOSS (21750)
NASDAQ TRADING RESULT – JUNE 13, 2025📉 NASDAQ TRADING RESULT – JUNE 13, 2025 📉
Following the analysis from June 9, 2025, NASDAQ has reached the bearish target at Magnet Area (DmH4) 21524.00 on June 13, 2025.
The move started with a rejection from Magnet Area (SpH4) 21767.00 – 22067.00. As long as price remains below 21767.00, there is still downside potential toward Magnet Area (DmH4) 21136.00.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risk. Always perform your own analysis and apply proper risk management.
NASDAQ break and retest: SHORTI found a good and solid breakout of a TL and its retesting now.
The retest is now on the broken TL, strong area of S/R and its fibo level..
We will see further drop in next week!!
CHEERRRSSS...!!!
Lets retire on Trump bullmarketLets retire on Trump bullmarket, last time Trump delivered 120% Nasdaq gains over 4 years lets see history repeat itself!
Perfect buy point is now, block all bearish american pigs and retire now.
Bearish SignalPrice is currently at the highest resistance NAS100 ever reached in its lifetime and failed to break, the last time it tested the resistance it dropped dismally confirming it’s a very strong resistance. There’s also a dynamic resistance supported by the trend line in green which was a support zone prior. Im very confident the resistance won’t break, if it were to ever break it’ll need a strong pull back which will definitely suppress TP1
Venta en Nasdaq impulsada por volatilidad macroeconómicaThe Nasdaq presents a technical short opportunity following a strong reaction to volatility triggered by recent macroeconomic events. This pressure has activated a risk-off environment, with capital flowing out of tech assets into safe havens like the dollar or bonds.
The price is respecting a bearish structure on higher timeframes and, after a technical pullback into supply zones, rejection is confirmed with volume and reversal candlesticks. I expect bearish continuation as long as key levels remain intact and macro uncertainty persists.
📍 Trade based on price action and fundamental context.
⚠️ Risk is managed according to the trading plan, adjustable based on macro developments.
USNAS100 | Bearish Below 21635 Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyUSNAS100 | OVERVIEW
The index is currently under bearish momentum driven by escalating geopolitical tensions.
As long as the situation remains unresolved, downward pressure is expected to continue.
Outlook:
As long as the price stays below the pivot at 21635, the index is likely to drop toward 21470.
A confirmed break below 21470 could accelerate the decline toward 21250, and eventually 21065.
Pivot Line: 21635
Support Levels: 21470, 21250, 21065
Resistance Levels: 21790, 21930, 22090
NSDQ100 uptrend consolidation supported at 21300Markets Rattled After Israel Strikes Iran
Israel launched major airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and missile sites, as well as top military leaders. The move sharply escalates tensions in the Middle East and came despite warnings from former President Donald Trump, who was told of the attack only shortly beforehand. He later warned Iran that future strikes would be “even more brutal” if no deal is made.
Market Reaction:
Oil jumped up to 13% on fears of supply disruptions.
Gold climbed as investors rushed to safe-haven assets.
Stock futures and crypto fell on rising geopolitical risk.
The U.S. dollar dipped, then rebounded, as its role as a safe-haven asset came into focus.
Other Key Updates:
Trump wins court backing to keep troops in Los Angeles amid ongoing protests. A hearing is set for Tuesday.
Meta invests billions in Scale AI, bringing on its CEO to boost efforts in building artificial general intelligence. Meta is aggressively hiring top AI talent from firms like Google.
For Traders:
Watch oil and gold closely for continued volatility.
Safe-haven flows could drive further USD and gold moves.
Meta’s AI push may influence tech sector sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22070
Resistance Level 2: 22370
Resistance Level 3: 22680
Support Level 1: 21300
Support Level 2: 21060
Support Level 3: 20820
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
