US Dollar Index forum
DXY U.S. Dollar Index - DailyDXY Chart Update
I have updated the DXY chart and present it to you now. We know that in smart money analysis, it shows us the primary market trend structure, and by mapping the daily structure, it indicates that this chart is in an upward trend. Currently, we are looking for suitable areas to buy the dollar.
Confirmation of Major High and Market Movements
After confirming the major high with the price reaching the first standard pullback, which I indicated on the chart with IDM, and ultimately reaching the Decisional Order Block, we experienced a good upward move together with a proper buy. However, unfortunately, our major high was not broken, and the market pursued a downward phase towards the IFC Candles.
DXY 💹 DXY 24th February 2025 Daily Analysis Based on Main Key Levels
Daily Current Market Price (DCMP):
106.321
Key Levels Relative to DCMP:
Support (Below 106.321): 106.138, 105.738
Resistance (Above 106.321): 106.385, 106.785, 107.185
📊 Technical Snapshot
Critical Swing Levels:
Swing High: 108.523 | Swing Low: 106.566
Fibonacci Retracement: Aligns with 106.566–108.523 range.
RSI: Neutral at 51 on 4H chart.
MACD: Bearish momentum fading near 106.138 support.
🚨 Trade Setups
1️⃣ Intraday Buy Opportunity
Entry Price: 🎯 106.138
Stop Loss: 🛑 105.738
Take Profit 1: ✅ 106.321
Take Profit 2: ✅ 106.385
Rationale: Strong confluence at 106.138 support with bullish RSI reversal on intraday charts.
2️⃣ Intraday Sell Opportunity
Entry Price: 🎯 106.385
Stop Loss: 🛑 106.785
Take Profit 1: ✅ 106.321
Take Profit 2: ✅ 106.138
Rationale: Resistance cluster at 106.385 aligns with bearish MACD crossover and overbought RSI signals.
⚠️ Critical Risk Zones
Break Below 106.566 (Swing Low): Accelerates decline toward 105.738.
Break Above 108.523 (Swing High): Opens path to retest 107.832 resistance.
Pro Tip: Monitor DXY’s reaction at 106.321 DCMP for intraday bias shifts. Use tight stops to navigate currency volatility! 🔥
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DXY U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Weekly OutlookAfter looking at technical levels, fundamentals, and institutional positioning (COT data & investor sentiment), here’s a balanced take on where the Dollar Index (DXY) could be headed this week.
Bullish Case (50% Probability)
• Key Level: 106.000–105.500 is a strong support zone. If buyers step in, we could see a push toward 108–110.
• Fundamental Factors:
• Potential U.S. trade tariffs might boost demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
• Consumer confidence and inflation data could influence Fed expectations—strong data would likely support the USD.
• Institutional Positioning (COT Data):
• Net-long positions have dropped (-4.7B), but institutions still hold 26.5B in USD longs—suggesting underlying strength.
• More hedging activity, which signals caution but not outright bearishness.
• Investor Sentiment:
• The dollar has gained about 7% since September, but some funds are starting to scale back exposure.
• If 106.000 holds, the short-term trend could stay bullish before any bigger shift.
🔹 Trading Approach:
• Look for bullish setups around 106.000–105.500.
• Targets: 108.000, then 110.000 if momentum holds.
• Invalidation: A clean break below 106.000 signals weakness.
Bearish Case (50% Probability)
• Key Level: If 106.000 doesn’t hold, there’s room for a drop to 104.000–103.500.
• Fundamental Factors:
• Institutional long positions are shrinking, hinting at possible distribution.
• Increased bullish bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY) suggest capital may be moving away from USD.
• Cooling sentiment on the USD and U.S. equities adds to short-term downside risk.
• Institutional Positioning (COT Data):
• Big players are trimming USD exposure but haven’t fully turned bearish yet.
• If we see further outflows, a move below 106.000 becomes more likely.
🔹 Trading Approach:
• Look for shorts below 106.000, targeting 104.000–103.500.
• Keep an eye on CPI data, consumer confidence, and trade-related headlines.
• If 106.000 breaks, expect smart money to drive prices lower before any potential rebound.
Final Thoughts
DXY is at a make-or-break level (106.000):
• Scenario 1 (Bullish, 50%) – 106.000 holds → move toward 108–110.
• Scenario 2 (Bearish, 50%) – 106.000 breaks → move toward 104–103.500.
• Institutional & Sentiment Insights:
• Net-long positions decreasing (bearish pressure).
• More hedging (uncertainty, but not full bearish commitment).
• Investor sentiment is cooling, increasing the risk of a pullback.
🔹 Bottom Line: Watch how price reacts at 106.000—it’s the key pivot for the next move.