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Rolled: ARKK March 18th 103.22 Short Put to April 14th 103... for a .10 credit. Comments: Rolling this out on strength to lock in the gain experienced by the 103.22 (which it quickly gave up during the day), improve the strike slightly, and to keep some extrinsic in it. I'm still looking at the deep in-the-money short put as functionally long stock that I'm short strangling with the March 18th 59.22/81.22 to reduce cost basis. I've collected a total of 22.68 in credits, so my break even is 103 (the short put strike) minus 22.68 (total credits collected) or 80.32 relative to where the stock closed today at 69.03, so I still have some cost basis reduction work to to do.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by NaughtyPines
Be on the right side of change. Tuesday, Jan. 25 ARK sumitBe on the right side of change is a fancy title for an investment company that lost 23-25% of the value of their 4 main funds in the past 16 trading days! No need to say that these funds had lost 17-34% of their values in 2021. I think it is crucial to be on the right side of the change, otherwise...! One of my favorite Youtubers is Ozzy man, he has a series called Destination F..! It is a compilation of failures, he usually says: Someone is definitely ending up in destination F regarding their employment status over this. (being on the wrong side of the change) Market sentiment has changed a lot and those who are on the right side of the change are sitting on piles of cash or shorted the market..! Each candle shows 1 year.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
5
Do you know how hard is to revrse a 55% decline?I have written more than 20 analyses on ARKK since 2021, none were Bullish! I even compare it to the NET NET fund during the .com Bubble..! To all those who are loyal to ARK, now you need +122% to get to the same level Of February 2021..! This number will be increased to 200-300% in the next 2 months which makes it almost impossible! The celebrity fund manager will soon be overthrowing..! It pretty much smells like 2008..! Reviewing the comments below my previous ark post will be fun these days..! I might have limited knowledge about the market, but I'm confident that I understand 2 things: 1- Bubble 2- Turning points Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
Opening: ARKK March 18th 59.22 Short Put... for a 1.83 credit. Comments: Here, I'm basically treating the deep ITM 103.22 short put as stock with the 81.22 short call making that aspect of the setup -- the 103.22P/81.22C -- functionally a March 18th 81.22 covered call. I don't want to widen the inverted strangle further by rolling down the short call, since that would be the functional equivalent of selling a call below my cost basis, which I generally don't like to do. In essence, I'm converting this into a March 18th 59.22/81.22 covered strangle with the 103.22P standing in as my stock. I've collected a total of 22.58 in credits which makes my cost basis in my "synthetic stock" 103.22 - 22.58 or 80.64. The downside of doing this is that this makes the setup more net delta long, which will make for additional discomfort if this POS can't find a bottom somewhere.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by NaughtyPines
2
The Right &The Wrong side of the Equation (-51.29% /232 days)!12 years ago when I started this journey(trading/investing), I told myself: you have to review the background of the most successful traders and investors and pick the bullet points that work the best for you! Before I came to the US 2 years ago, I have never heard about ARK invest. I remember the first time I search for the best-performing hedge fund in the past 5 years, ARK invest and Cathie Woods. I was reading about their strategies and checked all their fund's holdings one by one, I built a watchlist of ARKG, ARKK, ARKW...etc. From the fundamental point of view, I noticed they invest in companies that barely have revenue and if they generate revenue they are not profitable and will not become profitable in the next 5 years! Moreover, they have invested more than 99.9% of the funds and it will limit their action! Another common feature between their investing was a beautiful story and multi-trillion dollars disruption! Usually, they mention 30 trillion dollars in their interviews..! The bigger Fool theory: Story of Fake gurus on YouTube: I notice there are lots of YouTubers with the same mantra: "I buy because ARK invest has bought", some times even a rumor was enough to cause the price jump, like BNGO's +3000% move in less than 40 trading days! By the time I found out Bill Hwang was the one who provide the seed money for the first 4 ARK's funds I became confident that something must be wrong..! After finishing my research, I have published more than 20 short articles on ARKK and other ARK funds in the past year, Althogh, I received much criticism, today ARKK is trading -51.29% from its All-Time-High..! and I'm confident that is not the end of the story..! I think in the best scenario it will go down to 60, and the worst scenario could push it down to 30-35..! You may think I am crazy, but reviewing Cathie Woods's performance in 2008, shows her disruptive thematic investment had -38-48% performance! In the past year, those who hold their positions were on the Wrong Side of the Equation..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
4
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 82.22C/104.22P to March 18th... 81.22C/103.22P for a 1.25 credit. Comments: Rolling this out a touch early due to lack of extrinsic in the short put, which ostensibly increases assignment risk. I improved the short put by a strike, but kept the inversion the same -- a 22 wide for which I've collected 19.50 (See Post Below) plus 1.25 or 20.75, with my resulting cost basis in any stock I might be assigned via the short put 103.22 - 20.75 or 82.47 relative to where it closed today at 75.87. I prefer working these inversions to a point where either I can scratch them out or where taking assignment would be at "something close" (a relative term) to where the stock is currently trading. That way I'm not starting out working a covered call way under water such that selling calls against at or above my cost basis wouldn't be productive. Naturally, there's a point where you ask yourself whether you've mitigated enough loss such that you can comfortably take the hit, free up the buying power for something more productive and then move on.
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
5
A comparison between ARKK and NASDAQ 100 in 3 diffrent window!Part one: April 2020 to February 2021: ARKK outperform NASDAQ 100: While ARKK gained 289%, NASDAQ 100 gained 84% in the same time frame! Part two: Feb 2021 to Jan 2022: While ARKK has lost more than 51% Nasdaq 100 gained +9.7% Part three: March 2020 to Jan 2022: ARKK gained 102% while NASDAQ 100 outperform with a 116% gain in the same time frame! Part 4: ARKK since inception: Since Oct2014 ARKK gained +273%, in the same time frame NASDAQ gained 264%! Conclusion: ARKK outperforms NASDAQ by 9% in 8 years..! Although social media tries to depict a Legendary portfolio manager, Numbers show the ARK team is not what you think they are..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
3