DRV updates (06/13/2020)FA
FED actions in late May has disrupted the entire commercial rental and REIT market by overly purchasing mortgage-backed securities.
With this action, more and more people rushed into investing in real estate and FOMO-ly bought commercial real estate stocks and pushed them to All-time-high.
At that point, commercial renting was a zero-risk investment as FED was acting as insurance for any losses.
However, by overly buying, these commercial stocks are now too over-priced, taking considerations on the impact of Covid-19 and RIOT.
Correction with take place soon.
TA
-DRV found the bottom at $12.60.
-The target for reversal: $21
-Squeeze and RSI are being bullish. Signaling bullish trend.
-DRV is trading below EMA: Bearish
In summary: need to wait for a trend reversal ($21 is the confirming price).
-Meanwhile: We can check out both DRV and DRN (3X bull commercial). Switching side with FED's schedule (term-note)
www.newyorkfed.org
Good luck
DRV trade ideas
Commercial real estate about to craterDRV tracks the inverse of commercial REITs. Ever since the pandemic began several companies have instituted work from home policies.
A large majority of companies will either default or give up on their leases. On the other side hotels & malls are not seeing much traffic either.
All this points to a drastic drop in returns for REITs.
Technicals:
Daily RSI has had higher lows.
Volume is picking up.
MACD turned green and is heading to bullish territory
The price is trying to break a resistance level.
Note: This is not financial advise. Please do your own research.
DRV Updates (05/14/2020)FA
Please check my other DRV posts for basic analysis.
FED keeps rates at 0%. Which means no further interest expense can be reduced for rental businesses.
TA
-DRV is having a bullish trend, trading above moving averages. However, less than EMA 200.
-DRV broke-out $26 trend resistance which means DRV can be trading higher.
-Squeeze + RSI are signaling bullish.
-New Target: $30
-Ideal Price: $25
-Long-term holders: Market price.
Please keep in mind DRV is an x3 ETF, so this will be extremely volatile. Up and down 5% is normal for this type of ETFs. Please create your own strategies to trade or to buy this ETF. Stop-loss or profit taking orders are highly recommended.
DRV (05/12/2020) - UpdatesFA
-Retails are suffering financially (as expected), some will file for bankruptcy: JC Penny.
-FED is buying corporate ETFs (mostly debt). So REIT or Retails debt are some of the options. This will reduce the rate of filing for bankruptcy and help businesses to deal with debts.
-States are opening, however, worries about 2nd wave of Covid-19 will discourage consumer from going out and shopping.
-Online shopping are dominating the market.
-Malls are not opening until further notice.
-Demand for luxury items decrease (due to financial hardship).
TA
Target: $26 for taking profit.
Buying level: $23-24
Best deal: $21- $22
There will be a DRV price break out in the future as indices are dropping. Possibly $40. If you're conservative, please wait until the breakout happen or sell for profit now. (I will update DRV in the future).
DRV is trading above moving average: Bullish
Neutral for Squeeze and RSI.
Good luck
DRV is coming back (05/05/2020) - UpdatesLast week's drop was due to FED bail-out, investor's speculations on economy reopening, and the small business loans was distributed.
3 key factors that will lead to this week rally:
-The economy is open, however, only 25-50% capacity, which means, businesses will consider their profit by shopping for cheap rental.
-Malls are not coming back soon. Rental spaces are opened for rent without tenants. Demand for commercial renting drops.
-Consumer's demand for luxury items drops due to unemployment rates and tightened budgets. This will come back to the first reason, mall businesses will be in danger.
TA
The average price for DRV $22.5 in 14 days
Bottom: $19.5
Target price this week: $26
DRV- Profit from mortgage bubble.Commercial rental are still taking the hit domestically as businesses are deferring or missing payments.
Rental houses also have same issue.
Some investment with high mortgage debt will also miss mortgage payment.
-Chain reactions.
If this lasts more than a month it will create a 2008-like crash.
Unemployment = less income = less payment = less profit
Good luck
Real Estate BEARThe Real estate market topped last fall and now the indicators the confirm it are recently confirming the housing market has been exhausted and will not continue to help grow the economy in the next few years. LONG DRV, the charts are looking sweet i.m.o Some Jan 19 calls should be good.