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EEM trade ideas

EEM / SPY - update and deductions from timwest's ideasSome time after the original chart was posted by timwest: CCI shows a diveregence now with this pair, and, although a gut feeling - something tells me that chances are we may see a trend change in future, and EEM will outperform the US market. Another thing to add to this is also timwest's chart (one can never praise this chartist enough on the site) - the discrepancy and distance between EEM and SPY became so large, it feels as it has to narrow down. But it is only up to "you, the reader" to decide what he feels may happen - On one side you have US markets with a huge run over 2013 and 2014, where we've been expecting a drop that never happens - On the other, EEM that has been going lower and recently turned up a bit. (one can note some run-ups of such countries as Korea, Thailand, India, Brazil, Turkey and even Japan sits on the verge of braking up). So again 2 scenarios - 1) EEM breaks lower, Spy remains in tact or goes higher 2) EEM breaks up, and SPy gets its sell-off and correction. If this idea - - holds by years end, and so far it does - then scenario 2 is quite probable. But first this pair needs to overcome the 23 resistance level. Must quote today's comment from Tim "We are nearing the end of the end of the end of all of the positive forces holding up the market." And my deductions agree fully with him on " I think the trade will be "out of developed markets" and into "emerging markets" for the next year" I must include timwest's ideas that altogether will show which scenario i am leaning to and i urge you to read his comment-update on the forecast chart PS - dear Tim. Never think that your charts are useless - i try not to post much and distract you from doing research, but if you wish i would leave notes on charts i think are good ideas (on top of the stars and thumbs up). This chart and idea is wholly made from your ideas - but added a whole deal of confidence to my feelings of the market.
AMEX:EEMLong
by A-shot
10
US Markets vs Real WorldEconomist David Levy recently wrote an article "Ready For The Next Big Recession?" David sees global economic pressures adding to a global recession that will be much worse than 2008-09. US employers are not too worried about a possible global slowdown. Employers are creating jobs at the fastest rate since the 1990's. However, they should be concerned. Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) nations, along with Japan and European nations growth has either been muted for several years or on a decline. There's been an adage that many have followed over the years, "when the US economy sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold". This is not the case this time. The rest of the world economies have matured, developed and grown up. If you take a look at the CIA World Factbook, other than the US 14-15 Trillion Gross World Product, the rest world sits at roughly 62 Trillion or 76% of Gross World Product. Looking deeper into the numbers, worlds GDP real growth rates peaked in 2011 at 3.8%, followed by lower numbers in 2012 at 3.1% and in 2013 at 2.9%. The slowing growth is evident. Signs are out there already, suggesting that David Levy, might be correct. European Banks are still stuck with trillions of dollars with bad loans from the financial crisis in 2008. To rid banking problem, European Central Bank recently went negative interest. This will encourage European Banks to swap or write off bad debt, while loaning new loans and earning a reward visa via the ECB. However, the burden of debt from the 2008 financial crisis is enormous. It will take a lager intervention, such as the ECB purchasing each euro-zone's members major banks bad debt. No one sees this happening, since the ECB has been reactionary since 08, waiting to catch the falling porridge before the mess heaps over and causes a bad spill. However, Eurozone problem is only the beginning of problems. Another situation that is concerning is BRIC nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China. These countries have been highly dependent on consumer spending in developed countries such as US, Europe, and Japan. With US as the only growing developed country, we are seeing a slack in demand and an overabundance in supplies from the BRICs. Over supplying is a big problem for the BRICs. These nations have seen vast increases in standard of living. Without a growing demand from developed economies, none of these nations will survive too long. What's really scary is the means at which these businesses are spending there capital. We have skyline cranes building skyscrapers everywhere. Al-Waleed, chairman of Kingdom Holding Company (KHC), is building the largest building in the world, along with a Kingdom City marked at $20 Billion US. In Miami, Fl, foreigners are buying up condos like kids in a candy store, 1,2, 3 is not enough. From anyone who studies financial history, it is a know fact that every major recession has been proceeded by a Florida housing boom. It also known that in the US, colleges are spending money like there's no tomorrow. There is a crane, or 8, at every major institution in the US. Perhaps the education bubble will also set this recession on fire. I too agree we are only a year or two away from another major melt down. Chart above shows how US markets are running up a mountain while the rest of the world has yet to break above the 2008 financial bubble highs.
AMEX:EEM
by QuantitativeExhaustion
28
keep an eye on emerging markets.emerging markets have been under-performing the US since mid 2011 (at least until January this year). what is interesting is that the base for EEM is getting increasingly tight. The implication is that if they break to the upside, the profit potential is substantial. Specifically, watch for one out of two scenarios, 1) a break out with authority and 2) failed break out/rejection at current levels. No action at the moment, but is worth keeping on the watch list
AMEX:EEM
by Marius_Johnsrud
EEM breakout, what everyone already knows or should knowI am sure by now everyone knows of the EEM breakout above the upper trend line, also noticing higher lows. Why? Could it be that finally the effect of the corporate unfriendly tax climate, and the additional above the line cost of over regulation, the Democrats have created has caused enough corporations to move away into EEM countries, with no intent on re patrioting (spelling?) their money flow back to the US anytime soon, or ever? Could this same effect have a negative effect on US equities and US spending? This may not result in a world wide economic recovery, but what money there is the the world GDP could be now flowing out of the US and into EEM enough to reflect in the EEM rising as it is? Is there actually less money in the "system", but it is being exchanged elsewhere? Appreciate anyone's comments.
AMEX:EEM
by claydoctor
Emerging Markets Spyder EEM overbought here versus SPYThis is a chart of the EEM versus SPY. I divided SPY by 100 so the resulting fraction would be 2-digit number. The concept here is that overbought conditions tend to get more overbought signals in bull markets. And that overbought conditions tend to be good sell signals in bear markets. So, if this is a bear market, then this is a good area to sell short EEM and go Long SPY for a few percent return in the next few weeks. The chart speaks volumes about where Emerging Markets are relative the S&P500 and it could very well be that EEM is about to embark on a multi-year outperformance of the SPY to the tune of 50%, which would drive this ratio from 22 up to 33. I have enclosed my other charts that relate to this same idea and the forecast for the DIA for 2014 from the turn of the year also. Cheers. Tim 11:51AM EST 5/12/2014
AMEX:EEMShort
by timwest
3
Emrg Mkts Index EEM Daily - Bullish Trendline Break Vs SPY For the start of 2014, the EEM decline 11% in 22 trading days (34 calendar). Now the EEM is coming back to unchanged here. I could see it take some time here to regroup, but I see it outperforming the S&P500 SPY over the next 3-4 months to the tune of 10%-15%. There has been a 40% relative UNDERPERFORMANCE for EEM since the peak at the end of 2012. That is a tremendous performance lag. Investors appear to be liquidating their US positions and rotating into Emerging Markets positions and I agree with the shift in trend. Risk 4% - versus - Reward of 10%-15%. Time frame 1 to 3 months. Tim 2:21PM EST, Friday, March 28, 2014
AMEX:EEMLong
by timwest
7
Emerging market sell off followed by market bottom and rebound?Emerging markets have been getting hammered since the 2008 crash. US markets and some European markets have already blasted past their previous highs as the economy has comeback. In the near term emerging markets seem to be capitulating on fear of growth and currency concerns. A closer look and one sees that the majority of this risk has already been priced in, and that the GDPs of many of these countries have increased substantially amounts since their market tops in 2007-2008. Growth concerns are almost unwarranted as all of these economies will most likely continue to outperform OECD countries in growth. In other words, I expect waterfall type sell-off to occur were all the towels are thrown in and emerging markets become substantially cheap. Various currencies this year have been substantially devalued against the dollar, and once it all settles down, emerging markets will have outsize- long-term promise. late feb to mid april seem like to prime candidates for when to buy emerging markets Update: Support held for now on the channel and a double bottom might developing. I think this time the upside WILL break the upper resistance. Emerging markets are ready to play catch up. Brazil/Turkey my favorite for BIG BIG cheese. Indonesia and Vietnam looking good too, more charts to come.
AMEX:EEM
by AlexPrather