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EZA trade ideas

South Africa (EZA) a good Precious Metals playPrecious metals (PM) have really struggled this week, with the following weekly movement in USD: Gold TVC:GOLD -5.65% Silver TVC:SILVER -7.17% Platinum TVC:PLATINUM -7.2% Palladium TVC:PALLADIUM -8.23% All these PM’s seems to be heavily oversold over the shorter-term, which could see a bit of a recovery over the next week or two. Why is this important? Currently 24% of EZA consists of PM’s, which was the main reason for the recent pullback in the ETF. EZA finds itself at a strong support level and very close to EXTREME OVERSOLD levels according to its 14-day RSI. Should $48.50 not hold up, my stop loss would be at the 200-day Moving Average (EMA). This currently is $46.86. Should we see a bounce off the current levels, could see EZA test the 50-day EMA at 51.29 resistance, with a break and close above these levels, most probably bringing back new 12-month highs. I am somewhat worried about the negative recent momentum and will monitor closely
AMEX:EZALong
by SchalkLouw
2
South Africa is a fundamental buy #EZASouth Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the Sovereign Bonds, which doesn't seem to be on the near term horizon. Naspers makes up 25% of the ETF, and with it's holding of Tencent in China, it should perform well given recent macro inflections out East. Recent Chinese PMI and output upticks prove the current reflationary theme being played out here in Q1 2020. Technically, the symmetrical triangle looks poised for a breakout or breakdown. Given the fundamental picture, I believe there is great risk/reward to the upside.
AMEX:EZALong
by MT-Macro
Depreciation of Rand hurting Africa economyFrom the beginning of 2020, you can see from the chart that RAND (BRL) currency has depreciated more than 38% against the US dollars. That makes it even harder for the merchants and business owners in Africa who needs to sell much more than before to make the same US dollars. EZA, the ETF tracking South Africa has also shown a lacklustre performance todate as well. It's peak at 76 in Jan 2018 will no longer see the sunshine it wanted anymore. It is now trading at 29.84. While there is a support at 24.95, the price action is likely to stay sideway for a while. I will avoid shorting for now and would not be considering longing EZA until it has broken out of the rectangle.
AMEX:EZA
by dchua1969
Emerging Markets and my preferred #ETF EntryLet’s start off with the declaimer – I’m South African and I might just be bias. If you would ask me to buy one #ETF and one ONLY, this will be my recovery ETF. Is it still a country full of challenges? YES! Could it face further downgrades? MAYBE! Do South Africa know how to fix the problem and have the “management” to do it? YES! Watch $55.30 as a first possible breakout point, with the $58.40 being next resistance level. 50-day Moving Average also getting mighty close to the 200-day, with a break bring that Golden Cross. Fundamentally, according to Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts, analysts see growth of 17.1% from current levels on the FTSE/JSE Top40 Index (in locally currency). My personal view is that the Rand/USD should be better priced around the R12.78/USD over the next 12 months. Should that happen, we could be looking at a possible capital gain of 8.32% (in USD) on the $EZA, corresponding nicely with the close to $58.40 levels. Should the $ZAR only improve to R13.50/USD (and consensus are spot-on), then we could be looking at a target price of $60.85 over the next 12 months. On the downside, watch $53.08 as first resistance point, with $51.50 as next possible stop.
AMEX:EZALong
by SchalkLouw