Chinese Stocks Have Pulled Back HardThe run-up in U.S. bond yields has squeezed the dollar higher and dragged global stocks lower. This could be creating an opportunity in Chinese stocks.
The iShares Trust China Large-Cap ETF hit a 13-year high of $54.53 on February 17, followed by a sharp pullback in the last two weeks. A few interesting things appear on the chart.
First, FXI has returned to an upward-sloping trend line that began in late September. It’s also near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) where prices bounced immediately before Christmas.
Next, Fibonacci shows we’ve retraced about 62 percent of the most recent leg up.
Finally, stochastics have returned to an oversold condition.
Given the sharpness of the recent drop, traders could watch for more signs of stabilization before jumping in. However, this could prove an interesting opportunity for longer-term trend followers.
TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
FXI trade ideas
Are Chinese Stocks Breaking Out?Several positive things have happened in China lately. The Asian country’s coronavirus cases have remained low and economic data has been strong. Just today, the Caixin manufacturing index had its biggest gain since 2011.
That’s helped push the yuan to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in over 1-1/2 years.
The other big story has been the rise of China as a financial center, which we saw in last week’s successful Ant Group initial public offering. Interestingly, Chinese technology stocks like Alibaba and JD.com remained near highs last week – even as U.S. peers crumbled. (Three of the Nasdaq-100’s six gainers last week were Chinese: Pinduoduo, JD and Netease.) Also consider Nio’s massive outperformance versus Tesla recently.
We’ve covered Chinese technology stocks several times. Today we’re looking at China’s non-tech stocks: the iShares Trust China Large-Cap ETF.
FXI has a long-term resistance area between $45 and $46. It was support in the first half of 2018, and then marked the top of its range in April 2019, January 2020 and again last July. Now two chart patterns suggest a breakout may be coming.
First is the downward channel over the last four months. FXI broke above it in mid-October and held the top of it last week.
Second is the increasing relative strength in recent weeks, seen in our custom Smart RS indicator here.
Traders may want to keep an eye on FXI if it keeps pushing toward $45.
TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
China top 50 FXI index seems to have formed a triple topPossible triple top with a targeted move towards 37 level. Possible fundamental driver, new lockdowns abroad which damages consumption and demand for Chinese goods.
Technical picture is supported by potential reversal islands at all three tops.
FXI IS CHINA's ETF PLEASE READ WHY THIS STOCK IS GOING UP Chinese GDP expanded by almost 5% on a year-over-year basis ending in Q3 of 2020, signaling sustained economic recovery for the initial pandemic ground-zero.
Believe it or not (and I literally mean "believe it or not"), China seems to be ahead the U.S. in terms of coronavirus recovery. China posted an increase in retail sales of 3.3% in September, compared to U.S. retail sales, which grew 1.9% in September (beating +0.7% expectations).
Even if you're a short-term trader, you should be thinking about the next bigger trend. You want to buy your position when the stock or the fund experiences a short-term decline and looks like it's going to reverse back up.
The ETF is only up by .19 today and the volume is fairly low, however all indicators are showing strong "buy" signals. Today would have been the perfect day to enter the trade but I gathered all the stats after the market closed. It closed at $44.28 and I would not be surprised if it goes up by "Opening Bell" tomorrow especially now with China's COVID STATS published.
Remember all trading involves risk. This an idea and an opinion.
FXI - iShares China Large-Cap ETFPrimed for a bit of sell off due to geo-political reasons and some good old-fashioned TA.
Its been bouncing around the upper bound of the asymmetrical triangle top for a while now, but pre-covid, it was posting a range between the 0.500 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels. Now with everything else going on with the USA trade war, Hong Kong, Huawei & Tik Tok it looks like this is heading back down to the 0.618 range, supported by the MACD showing bearish signs along with a PSAR stop and reversal looking on the cards too.
I’ve set by buy order. $39.12
Over 50% of the holdings in the ETF are from solid sectors (Financials, Real Estate, Communication) that should weather a downturn if things get bad.
Short for now. Long after $39.12
FXI at the crossing pointA or B not A and B
A to D passing 39.33 , first week , second week of May
Short position. B . Which Thin Blue Line. will be the bounce? That path would be an alternate future. If by a miracle of noble loving people, peace can be inspired, then. . . along the bright path fro box to box, into the summer; beyond, autumn D. D, test the March 03, 05 levels. Winter near, E: A hard top. That Double curve has been resistance for previous peaks.
Short FXI
I shorted the FXI early February, I am still in this position. Expect it to continue to drop another 20% to 25%. China has been reporting 0 new cases of the CCPvirus for the past week, while I believe the cases have dropped I do not believe it is 0. They have been opening up many locations such as Guizhou and Xinjiang (East Turkistan), theaters in Beijin, etc. There currently have been many inside reports of new cases within China such as 209 high school students from Jinping having a fever/diarhea. Given Murphys if a single person still has it a second wave will come in, it is likely thousands still have it. While report numbers of 0 is unknown to be true the markets will know for sure after economic conditions, pollution emissions and other factors show up.