FXY trade ideas
Trade Idea: FXY December 16th 2 x 67/December 16th 72 Call RatioWith the yen at multi-year lows, looking to take a bullish assumption directional shot with plenty of time to work out in the Yen proxy, FXY.
The basic setup is to buy 2 x the 75 delta strikes and sell the 50's, resulting in a ~100 net delta long setup with a hypothetically infinite maximum profit.
Currently, the setup is pricing out at 9.90 with a 71.95 break even, which is slightly above where the underlying is trading pre-market. Will post if I get filled.
How to manage a small portfolioWhen trading in a small account, it is very important to be efficient with the capital used. That is why, even though is not the optimal trade we are forced to trade using defined risk strategies like Iron Condors.
This is the continuation of the portfolio started in our How to trade options series, where we start a portfolio from scratch. We started a $5,000 account and added 4 different trades. I closed 2 of those yesterday, open 2 new ones and defended one that was tested.
The first management was closing trades with 3 weeks from the expiration date to reduce risk. We closed trades on QQQ and on XLU.
Then we look for new trades and explained in the video how I chose the new trades and how to manage them.
Also explained the impact of commissions when trading with a small account vs a bigger account and lastly we defended a trade that is going against us.
Watch the video explanation for details:
youtu.be
Long (FXY) opportunityThe USD has been challenging to trade in the recent global market environment
Long-Run equilibrium exchange rates may be changing due to Central Banking policies & inflation
Covered interest parity is being challenged with recent market events
Being long the Japenese Yen Trust (FXY) offers significant upside via a bull call spread
We have outlined trade which can be accessed on profile however a summary is provided
2 Month Call Skew is .97 standard deviations above 1 year mean
2 Month Volatility is .31 standard deviations below its 1 year mean
FXY (The Yen) is moving on risk concerns but we believe expectations that the BOJ may finally taper their balance sheets after a long run of solid growth that will drive it further
Interested in all thoughts & analysis on our idea.
Long Japanese Yen Trust The USD has been challenging to trade in the recent global market environment
Long-Run equilibrium exchange rates may be changing due to Central Banking policies & inflation
Covered interest parity is being challenged with recent market events
Being long the Japenese Yen Trust (FXY) offers significant upside via a bull call spread
We have outlined trade which can be accessed on profile however a summary is provided
2 Month Call Skew is .97 standard deviations above 1 year mean
2 Month Volatility is .31 standard deviations below its 1 year mean
FXY (The Yen) is moving on risk concerns but we believe expectations that the BOJ may finally taper their balance sheets after a long run of solid growth that will drive it further
Interested in all thoughts & analysis on our idea.
Rob Smith - smithintheblack - Quant Edge learning11/26/17 – November, outside month up, bullish month.
Timeframe continuity to the upside. Outside month,
week, and day up, we will see what new actionable
signals December brings. There is no argument that
the price is not moving up. A sustained December
move above 86.38 is bullish to the top of the triangle
with a target area of 89ish. Then we can potentially
get into the 88, 89, 92, and 95 and 97ish areas.
Wave Analysis of the Japanese Yen (FXY) If The Yen gets beyond 83.90, then this will confirm the beginning of a bear market for the USD as it did back in 2008 when the Yen rose; and it would justify the structure of this wave analysis.
I am also taken into consideration that a strong Yen is bad for the Japanese economy and for the Nikkei, being that Japan is an export-based economy. This should, then, spill over into the markets as it is doing now with the Nikkei and the US stock market. Equities in the US stock market are adjusting to the foreseen rate hikes of the Fed.
It is expected that the Fed will keep raising rates since they expect inflation to rise in 2016 for the US economy. This could be an opportunity to buy strong companies at discount prices.
Well, I have to wait and see where the Yen and Nikkei goes from here along with other things.
Visual Clues of a New Bear Market Brewing AheadVisual signs of a new bear market brewing ahead is spilling over into Yen repatriation or safe haven flows. This may send the dollar down in the beginning as well, but the dollar is also a safe haven currency. Eventually, the US Dollar will rise also.... so the idea goes.