GDX trade ideas
Gold Miners vs Gold Ratio on monthly chartLooks like the miners weakness is weakening... wait.. does that makes sense?
GDX Next 37.58, 39.2GDX next potentail resistance 37.58 & 39.2. Its signal line is nearing to cross MACD line.
GDX - Miners are Ready to Rock and RollGDX - Miners are Ready to Rock and Roll
Keeping this short and simple
Daily/Weekly Set-up
Entry on Pre-market Gap-up or 32.25 double bottom if we drop (which i doubt)
1st Target = 38
2nd Target = 42
Hodl target = 45+
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Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
$GDX .. Bullflag hereJust like GLD .. GDX is in bullflag mode.. Holding this key level nicely .
GDX likes to start rolling before GLD usually .. keep some individual slow floaters in GDX etf on your radar !
GDX PLUMMETCall me crazy but, I don't give a <3.
The miners don't lie. Bearish Head and Shoulders formation. That is top if I ever seen one. 26 is the minimum lower target. 20 is the target I would like to see. At 12- 16 I will take out a loan to invest in GDX.
The economy is not in good shape as demonstrated by GDX acting weird and very bearish. It is well known GDX is a "proxy of liquidity". We see a very illiquid market upon us as, demonstrated by WSBets and GME. An illiquid market that starts to break down will summon another event like March. If we see the VIX get much higher there will be a crazy deleveraging and fleet to cash. Most Algos take in an input of the VIX. So as, the Vix reaches higher and higher price levels selling of risk assets occurs. The VIX looks like it is cooling off at a big move this week but, its just gaining more "power" or "potential energy". As, GDX moves down Gold and Silver will follow.
**I like to analysis the fundamentals, investing > trading ... look at the amount of wealthy investors vs. traders. excluding quant traders. My strategy is Buy Low Sell High. I think the market can bubble up for 1-3 months then have a blow off top with the amount of retail buying. As you can see, I am looking at a 10 year chart. I don't know the exact timing but, its coming that's for sure and all fundamental signs are pointing to it. I am not trying to instill fear just, acknowledging its existence.
Full Disclosure: I have been short GDX since October. Long Bonds, Long VIX, Still holding stocks waiting for a last leg up, I will exit stocks near end of February.
GDX- Miners Reaching Lower?A break of the inclining support originating from Jan 2016 may trigger some selling pressure as it would complete a Head and Shoulders pattern. This may be an inverse expression to the IHS forming on the DXY. I'm about 70/30 convinced of this right now. The attached link makes a strong dollar case.
The average distance from head to neck results in a projected 24$ target, with the very base support above 22. If this played out similar to other sell-offs, we could expect the downward pressure to reach 24+ and ease before turning between Feb 1st and Apr 19th. This could be an algo/leverage driven flash sale so we might expect equal violence to the upside later in the summer/fall. (15% chance?)
What is more probably more likely is that the chart will bounce in the 28 range before deciding to follow-through to 24 or, consolidate and ultimately resume an up-trend. (85% chance)
Whether this coincides with a broader market decline remains to be seen, though my suspicions tell me that this week (Jan 25th-30th) will be very telling.
GDX and TIPS and EEM. Inflation factors. Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds and Emerging markets have a history of being high correlated. We see a massive divergence occur in November when TIPS and EEM break away from GDX.
Either ---------
TIPS is moving correctly and GDX is massively undervalued.
or.....
GDX is moving correctly and TIPS is massively overvalued.
---------
Its binary which one do you think it is?
I need to keep the brain steezy so, here is another (fire) Macro Idea.
Miners First To PopJust an Idea and time frame I'm following. Just a guy on the internet, See you all in March!
Short Term
DXY 94+
Gold 1690+
Silver 21+
GDX to Lead Downward
SPY??
NDQ???
Long Term
DXY below 80
Silver 50+
GDX 45+
GOLD 2800+
Going for Gold might be Going Nowhere for NowStrong short-term support level broken on Friday, indicating that further possible downside ahead. Should Friday’s break not turn out to be a false break, could see GDX test previous support level at $32.20.
We also saw the short-term 8-day Moving Average (EMA) break below the longer-term 200-day EMA, which is a clear indication that it might just get a bit darker before it turns bright again. All four the 8-, 21-, 50- and 200-day EMA’s are now point downward, clearly indicating an unhealthy short-term trend.
The 14-day RSI is also not in oversold territory yet, which confirms that more weakness is possible going forward.
I still believe with the amount of stimulus the US is pumping into their economy could have a positive effect for Gold and ultimately the Gold Miners over the longer-term. Patience however will be import over the shorter-term.
I expect GDX to test the $32 levels soon, just to rebound and test $38. Any traders who’s currently long, could watch $32 as a possible stop-loss, with a break below these levels, most probably bring back the mid-20’s into play. A break and close above $38 could be extremely bullish for GLD.
In short – hold for now, while accumulating/buying into further weakness.
GDX's downtrend continues. Perspectives and thoughtsGDX's downtrend has cast a shadow over gold's price and last week we saw a determined continuation of the downtrend for the Vaneck ETF. The ETF's price broke through the support with an average volume of 26.52M for Friday's trading session and buyers made no attempt to by the dip. We've closed with full-body under the support and below the $36 level. In the days before the drop on Friday, we saw some increase in volumes as some selling started to accumulate. RSI remains below the 50 ballast line and MACD has made a bearish crossover. The histogram is below 0.
The perspectives for the ETF remain negative with the overall sentiment leaning towards sell and strong sell. My target for the ETF is $31.35 - $31.25 zone. The rise in bond prices keeps Gold and the corresponding ETF's unattractive at this point.
GDX correcting towards 29.5GDX Breaking down towards historic support at 29.5 USD (61.8 retracement)
GDX continues its original path - DOWN to 30GDX... one of my favouorites, but now is in a major retracement.
Again, three out of four factors are not favourable:
1. USD rising
2. Gold bearish
3. Equities Bearish (or soon to be)
Only Low Interest Rates are favourable.
The weekly chart has a GAP DOWN (ignore the BRB Buy signal for now), and it closed below the weekly 55EMA, which is a significant development.
MACD is crossing down soon in bear territory, and the RPM is pushing down again!
Shifted downside target to 30, mid Feb 2021.
GDX: f/u still looks positive to me. Since the last posting there was one more drop of the to close one of those "nasty" gaps that Mr.(or Ms) Chart seems to hate to leave open. Would not be surprised to see rise from here. Process your way. For target see previous post with link below . Take care.
Death Cross in Gold Miners as Bitcoin DoublesWe cited the bullish potential in gold prices late last year. This played out as expected, but there hasn’t been any follow-through. Now some bearish patterns are taking hold.
This chart shows the downward trend line in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Notice how the latest rally tried and failed to push above it.
Next is the rising channel in place since late November as GDX clung to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). That pattern is starting to look like a bearish flag, with the potential for a breakdown if the late-December lows give way.
Third, notice how the 50-day SMA just slid below the 200-day SMA. That’s a bearish “death cross” pattern.
Even more things are happening off the chart than on it. After all, the U.S. dollar feel steadily in November and December. Gold’s inability to rally with that favorable backdrop is potentially bearish.
Next, the greenback is showing signs of bottoming. If it were to keep bouncing, that could also hurt gold.
Finally, Bitcoin doubled in price between December 15 and January 8 as GDX did nothing. BTC’s relative strength, combined with the drumbeat of institutional adoption, suggests a real sea change is taking place before our eyes. The next few months could be important in the history of money!
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Looks like up for the rest of the weekPrice and rsi trends have hit the bottom channel. Should move up to the top now. Could also accumulate along the bottom trendline for a few days before moving to the top.
