GDX Broke multi year supportGold miners have taken a hit with metals and broke a multi year support.
I will be looking to enter a short around the kijun.
1. Price below cloud
2. TK cross bear
3. Bearish cloud
3. Lagging span below cloud.
GDX trade ideas
GDX POTENTIALLY TO SET BULLISH GARTLEYIn the weekly chart the movement of the GDX last month continues to decline out of the sideways channel and the triangle pattern is bearish. Although there is a rebound after touching the support at 18.55, bearish pressure is clear as long as the index value is still moving in the formed downtrend channel, or the index value is unable to move up above 22.93 as the previous swing high. A downtred push has the potential to set Bullish Gartley pattern if the GDX value touches to the next support in the 16.62 area, meaning if the pattern has been fulfilled then the last point of the pattern has the potential to be a reversal zone, a failed pattern is formed if the price turns up and exceeds 25.71.
Short $GDX transition to Long $GDX Play$GDX has been the consolidation king for quite some time. Many big players have been gambling on the options of this fella yet the GDX refused to breakdown/up from the consolidation pattern. FINALLY, this fella broke down and this is just the 1st inning of this potential short which we will enter a short after taking profits.
Cycle View of Gold Miners ETF: GDXLooking at the Gold Miners ETF GDX as a potential investment. Seasonally, PM's tend to bottom in July and December, but July didn't work out this year!
So the market is showing what looks like a descending horizontal triangle targeting the point 16.30 which would be a price drop from the end of the triangle equal to the height of the triangle. The implication being that PM's will bottom when the dollar tops in correlation to the USDCNY (the Chinese appear to be putting a floor under the market, buying at a certain support level, but they keep devaluing their currency with respect to the dollar).
Really could see this pattern morphing from a triangle to a running flat, and bottoming in December anyways... time will tell.
Gold miners are rising?...Gold miners are rising? The ETF technical image of GDX Vaneck Vector Gold Minners shows this. GDX's price began to build a rising three-wave wave structure. This equally starts as a correction of a long decreasing trend back. Low D1 ATR decreasing volatility. If the exchange rate is capable of building a full three-wave structure, it can predict a more steady trend turnaround and a longer rise.
OPENING: GDX MARCH/SEPT 18/20 UPWARD PUT DIAGONAL... for a .04/contract credit.
Max Profit on Setup: $4/contract
Max Loss on Setup: $196/contract (width of the spread minus credit received)
Break Even on Setup: 19.96
Delta: 27.37
Theta: .43
Notes: Taking a small bullish shot on gold weakness here with a net credit, calendarized short put vertical. Naturally, I'm not collecting much credit here on fill, but I'll be looking to roll the short put aspect over time to collect additional credit, and look to manage it for a take profit that's at least one-third the width of the spread.
GDX - False breakdownIf it was a true breakdown price should had opened by a gap and drop hard.
This is going to be a false breakdown from the range.
We will be heading to 25 $ soon.
GDX Support at 21GDX has had support at around the $21 level since the beginning of 2017. Each time GDX has hit $21, the stochastic has hit oversold. Buying at that point, and holding until stochastic > 50 (or even stochastic overbought) would have brought decent profits.
Well, GDX has hit support at $21 again, and stochastic is oversold. There's several ways to play this one.
Can buy GDX ETF straight-up. Or if you wish to add more risk, buy NUGT which is 3X the GDX return. Or do a combination of both. Depends on your risk profile.
Personally, I did 50-50 GDX-NUGT.
Now remember that in 2017 fed interest rates were holding steady. Now we are in an increasing interest rate environment, which generally bodes negatively for gold.
I've got a stop on GDX to 20.25 (3 or 4%), that's about 10-12% on NUGT. NUGT is currently at $20, Stop at $18.
Upside target = GDX $22 (~5%), NUGT (~15%)
Good luck out there!
GDX to TEST below 2016 LOWS? USDCNH Devaluation GDX KillerAlthough gold futures finished fractionally higher on the day, it has closed lower on the week. This now marks the fourth consecutive week in which gold futures have closed lower and below the open on Monday. When we look at a weekly candlestick chart, we can see that even though gold closed, in essence, unchanged, it is a red colored candle indicating the close is below the open for the week.
Over the last eight weeks, gold has only closed higher on only one occasion. More significant is the fact that over the previous two months gold has lost almost $100 in value.
The last two months we have seen the U.S. dollar remain strong, and the U.S. equities markets continuing to hold firm and recover from the three-week selloff which began during the week of June 11. U.S. equities have gained value for the last five consecutive weeks when viewed through the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This strong risk-on environment created from rising equities prices coupled with dollar strength and rising interest rates have made safe-haven assets maintain a defensive posture.
Dollar Index Closes Above 95
Although the dollar gained only fractionally today, on a weekly basis the index closed above 95 for the first time since July 2017 (on a daily chart the dollar closed at 95.11 on June 28). As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is up 0.05% and trading at 95.04.
The only event holding the dollar back this week was today’s jobs report which showed that in July the U.S. gained 157,000 jobs. This was below the analyst's estimates (MarketWatch forecast) which predicted that 195,000 jobs would be added in July.
The steady and growing U.S. economy continues to weigh on gold prices. As long as economic forecasts continue to reveal stability and growth, the U.S. dollar should remain firm and precious metals pricing will continue to trade under pressure.
Spot gold fared much better than gold futures today resulting in a gain of $5.90. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1,213.10. On closer inspection, today’s gains were the direct result of traders bidding up the precious yellow metal accounting for a gain of $6.50, but fractional gains in the dollar index took away $0.60 of value.
On a technical basis, gold futures were able to hold above a critical support level which resides at $1,218. This level is a 0.618% retracement created from the lows ($1,124) gold traded to at the end of 2016 to the highs achieved at $1,369 this year. Below this level is a psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce, followed by a support level at $1,178 which is the 0.78% retracement level. Currently, we have major resistance at $1,240 per ounce.
Wishing you as always, good trading
GDX long idea long set up here as it hits a multi month support. Would get bullish over 22 with increase in weekly volume $GDX $GDXJ $NUGT $DUST $GLD
GDX not looking so goodGDX broke trendline on a weekly basis with OBV breaking trend as well. Very bad signal for gold.
21.32 is the next support if this does not turn out to be a bear trap next week, and below that opens up 18 level. Overall this thing may not be a triangle at all. So what is it?
Miners ready for lift-off (VPA)Miners have been accumulating for years. Recent volume at lows suggests price might be ready for mark up. Classic accumulation setup in my opinion. Time for miners to lead metals up.
SELL YOUR GOLD TO ME gold looks so bearish
one more push down
every damn trader is fascinating about dollar
wait till dolalr crashes
use options
GDX Gold miners ETF has not broken down into bloodbath like goldReversal possible off lower E into the holiday weekend as the shorts have had their fill smashing gold. Now they will load up and go the other way for several months is my guess. The miners should lead the way as they did not break down like gold did which shows positive strength. IMO>
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Net expense ratio 0.53%
Gold miners are on the cusp of breaking out of consolidationA follow up to Sunday's video on Gold, the commodity, GDX looks like it is almost ready to break out of this consolidation. The fundamentals are clear and suggesting you want to look to this sector now!
Hope you guys enjoy, I would love to hear all and any feedback.
Have a great day all!
