TRADE IDEA: GDXJ FEB 17TH 30/36/37/45 IRON CONDOR/FLYThere isn't much non-earnings stuff out there that has both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility. This is one of them.
Here I'm going with an extremely narrow iron condor, such that it's almost an iron fly ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: $338/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $462/contract
Break Evens: 32.62/40.38
Notes: I'm going to treat this as a fly for purposes of take profit and look to get 25% max.
GDXJ trade ideas
Pierce top BB - $40+I will not sell JNUG positions until top BB is pierced on GDXJ. The top BB is increasing in slop and bottom BB is curling up as well. There is some resistance overhead with MAs, but can easily be broken and then no resistance beside previous consolidation levels and tops.
Invalidate with consecutive daily closes below SMA 9.
TP is pierce of top BB, currently at 39.94 and increasing daily, so 40+ is target.
Today's gap up cleared previous congestion area which is a historic Support/Resistance are on multiple occasions. The next such area is 40-43.
Once the top BB is pierced, some profit should be taken and reloaded on a piercing of the lower BB.
TRADE IDEA/EXAMPLE: A 20/10 DELTA "DYNAMIC" IRON CONDORA creature of habit, I always sell the 20 delta when selling naked puts or setting up strangles/iron condors. Some traders like selling the 16's; some, the 30's; so I'm kind of "in between" ... .
Here, I show an example of a setup where I'm selling the 20 delta call (at whatever strike it lies), the 20 delta put (at whatever strike it lies), and buying the 10 delta put and call (at whatever strikes they lie). As compared to a "static" setup where you are making each wing the exact same width, here I'm letting the options' respective delta values dictate where my strikes, resulting in a skewed setup with the short call vert side of the setup being wider (4 strikes) than the short put side (3 strikes).
In actuality, this is a fairly good high IVR/IV setup, although I generally like to get at least 1/3rd the width of the wings in credit:
POP% 63%
Max Profit: $93/contract
Max Loss: $307/contract
BE's: 30.07/42.93
Notes: The "naked," undefined risk alternative is the body of this setup -- the Feb 31/42 short strangle with a max profit potential of $168/contract.
GDXJ turns for the better....After a 5 month bumpy downtrend for gold, it finally seems to turning upwards... it broke from the bottom of the downtrend in red and there is confirmation by a brothers grim.. (Using heikin ashi for to see future trend better)... But, black horizontal arrow is place where R1 and the 50 day moving average meet so if it can keep bullish volume and stoch is shows strong pricing power, it should be able to get over that hump... if it does enter long there but set alerts at both blue arrows. If it rejects and pullsback, wait for retest to see if it works.. if fails, consider a short...
Refer to UUP/ DXY as charts that should be inverse of this one...
Let me know with questions.
Constructive criticism is always welcome...
GDXJ Channel LongGDXJ has been stuck in this channel on the daily that started back in August. It has been bouncing back and forth and just hit the bottom of the channel and will look to go back to the top of the channel. Once it gets to the top of the channel (which depending on the slope it takes could be around $35) it will either break the channel, where we would see this stock take a big jump upward, or it will descend back down to the bottom of the channel. Either way, there should be a little profit here to be made ($29.00 -> $35.00 (21%)) over the next couple weeks. To confirm the bounce, we also have promising looking RSI and Stoch RSI indicators.
MINERS The dive will be more deepGDXJ Expose some change trend to the downside, this is my first analisys for this ETF and am focused in the 30.50$ like as demand area. the current 50% @34.71$ is a fact is Holding this market by the moment and the less of liquidity by the hollidays days will put this market in standby-