GDXJ trade ideas
GDXJ LONGReally like GDXJ here, might be more of a chase then a reversal trade which is tougher for me but there's a few solid points in favor of the bulls:
- 50 dma has held perfectly during this period of consolidation, (also coincides with daily support trend line), just as it did in mid June before taking off
- its begun to break out of this mini daily triangle and has consolidated between 2 key resistance levels the previous 2 days
- looking to validate the inverse h&s its been forming over the last month
- the price action of these guys while the dollar has bounced significantly off the lows, gold & silver doing pretty much nothing as well as equities experiencing a pretty harsh sell off during this consolidation period shows strength in the sector
-RSI has remained bullish, not been below 40 since beginning of post-covid bounce
while its easy to layout the bull case, we can also layout the bear case
- a $DXY confirming its attempted daily trend change would be short term detrimental to the pm complex, as well as equities so miners would get knocked down pretty hard
- one could say the lack of follow through on the inverse h&s proves there's not a lot of buyers up here
A daily close below the daily support line would be my exit, looking to reenter at the 50dma
While I am uber bullish on the pm complex MT-LT, we could be looking for one last decline prior to the next leg higher. However the resiliency in the price action of all the miners during this consolidation period is definitely a point for the bulls, and subsequent follow through could be explosive.
Bullish GDXJ/GDXFor me, this looks beautifully setup for nice GDXJ out-performance for the next few months. Rebalancing accordingly.
Fundamentals for the juniors are solid, as well as this nice technical setup. Looking strong.
Any contrary thoughts?
Miners...Ready, steady, go!A new leg is on the march....
Based on the same Main Channel from the previous one, this one could last until the end of October.
If took more time to start...but that is nobody can foresee
So now, it is too early, and it's just a game, just a draft based on past performance (the last leg).
So past pattern is The Best to use as guide, because it´s more probable that market GDXJ behavior remains similar as market participants should be the same...or should have not changed too much.
Let see how it goes.
From Sweden....The Radio Dept (what a great band)
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GDXJ ready for next leg up to 75GDXJ bull flagging. Measured move up to 75.
Current position: Long
Disclaimer: These should be seen as the commentator's Notes to Self. Hopefully educational but aiming for entertaining. No legal or financial liabilities should be pursued from these materials.
GDXJ to 43$ soon! After its bounce, Gold started to descend as the dollar is showing signs of bouncing back up.
Should stock show signs of weakness, it will bring this down...
50% FIB target around $43
Same analysis applies to GDX but target is different.
Disclaimer: The above is just an idea, not an investment advice. Do your own diligence, trade safely and stay safe!
OPENING: GDXJ SEPTEMBER 18TH 48/70 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.92 credit.
Notes: High 30-day implied here at 60.5. Going with a directionally neutral camped out at the 17 delta's. Hopefully, less of a roller coaster this go 'round.
Miners bull trend resumes.After this week I´m convinced we have seen the bottom in gold stocks.
From here on, prices will go up and retrace, but making higher lows.
I think we´ll probably face two phases.
1) From here to the end of August, GDXJ will go up and retrace a few times until they surpass the previous high. I expect GDXJ 61-62$ Tuesday - Wednesday.
(63$ or more would need gold to reach almost previous high). Keep an eye close. After this top, a retracement back to 58-59$ for next week, and up again.
I´ll pay attention that price don't fall the big channel. I seriously would be surprise if it does. The trend to the upside is very strong.
2) After that, prices should flow alike June, until the end of September, inside a tiny channel. From the 21th of September on, I should pay special attention, because i believe prices would begin to behave "toppy", like past two weeks. Gaps up, and drops, new highs also, and the last week of September or the first of October the Top.
I expect GDXJ around 90 $ (86 to 96) in those dates.
And Gold around 2.300 also at the end of September.
It's early, but this is a possible road map following previous patterns. I'm totally convince in a bullish scenario, after August (for example). If it fit this one it would be just coincidence.
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If prices fall from the channel, a bearish scenario. I don't believe it would happen, but Mr. Market doesn't care what I believe.
And after that....well, If we reach the 90s...the we could correct and come back to the 60s. It happened before. But that is another tale, and we are far from there.
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Have a nice week and good luck.
Follow the smart money! 1. Bonds are showing a very similar up trend pattern as in the early 2020 (black line)
See what happened next in late February and early March. As soon as the market started its descent, bonds shut way up !
2. The dollar appears to want to bottom. Where did it go when bonds shut up? (Orange line). There was a small lag but DXY went way up to the roof!
3. What does it mean for Gold (cyan line) & miners? As the dollar shoots up, Gold, priced in USD, will correct like they did then. Target is hard to establish at this point but a significant pull back is expected. I will update when I am out of this trade.
4. Conclusion, as soon as the over valued stock market shows signs of weakness, bonds will shoot up, the dollar will follow and gold & miners will correct significantly. As they also did in 2008 (not shown in this chart) before taking off!
Please note this is a short term view (30 to 60 days). I am bullish on gold and miners long term. However, a great entry price should come soon. Why not profit before then?
Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
A Short Term bearish view for the MinersWe have been behaving in a top - mode, and the trend channel from June has been broken last Friday to the downside. If things unfold in a similar way to last August 2019 we could have some correction this week, maybe followed with some upside to make a king of a double top at the 66 level and then more correction...
I would pay attention to the 63 $ level, because there is a gap there. Gold could rise on Monday, so miners do fill the gap and then the fall can continue for the rest of the week. The possible downside target, could be 55-56$ (gold should fall around 1.850 $ during this week). It looks so far...but we've been there a few minutes ago in terms of gold history.
58$ is also important level.
Have a nice week and good luck.
Miners still pulling backI don't think the gold and silver rally is over by any means; but they are clearly still pulling back, especially the mining co's. What this means is they are not currently a safe place to be unless your in it for the long haul IMHO. Look for short term volatility.
The trend The channel from June is doing its work and everything continue bullish. The gold sector and the miners.
So around the 10th of August we can meet a new top in the channel, that can also be an important top, because the possibility of a touching the top line of a major channel.
But, all of this is just to be cautious. Gold and miners would do what they want.
GDXJ/GOLD Ratio could be around 0,034, that would mean Gold should reach a target somewhere between 2.050 - 2.100 That would fit the sector.
One thing follows the other.
One of the most difficult thing is to follow a sharp trend like the one we are since June. It´s hard because you don't have to no "nothing". If you are an investor, its easy, because that's your attitude, but if you are a trader you look for retracements or even worse, for reversals, tops, and so, and finally you chase the trend. That was my case and a lesson to learn. That's why it is said that buy and holders most of the times do better that traders.
I´m full long since Friday.
But this is so crazy that maybe on Monday I´m regretful....Mean while....relax and enjoy the summer
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GDXJ Possible Exit pointThere is a channel working right now. i´m tented to exit and enter, except if gold moves so wild that the top line of the channel is crossed by the candels.
Gold miners are a gold mineLooking to close on the monthly. Long on gold, gold miners, silver, silver miners and Crypto
GDXJ New Protests , Target up to $100GDXJ has confirmed the Rectangle pattern for nearly a decade, targeting towards the region of $90 (+-$5), it
could also alarm an economic instability in the next 1-2 years.
GDXJ buy : $57
GDXJ Target : $90 (+-$5)
Stop loss : 12% .
Note that this transaction takes a long time, expected 10 -12 months to reach the target, the fastest is 5 months.
Wish you good deals!
Looking for the Gold (Miner) Rush To Lose Some LusterThe yellow metal has been on a ripper the last month gapping higher following our last several sell signals. Could the third time be the charm?
The profile shows significant volume at many levels below but we're sticking with our system and expressing the 30m Extreme Turn sell using a put debit spread in Aug.
GDXJ AUG21 45/50 put vertical for a 0.89db.
Risk is 60% of the premium. This means we close the position if it trades below .40
Target is 50% of the max gain. This means we look for a mark of $2 or higher.
OPENING: GDXJ AUGUST 21ST 40/41/60 REVERSE JADE LIZARD... for a 1.06/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $106/contract
Max Loss: Undefined
Break Even: No Put Side Risk/61.06
Delta/Theta: -14.82/2.72
Notes: High rank/implied at 41/59. I don't do these very often, but think downside risk is greater than upside, particularly due to call side skew (i.e., both shorts are set up at the 20 delta, but the put side is closer in price relative where the underlying is trading than the call side).
The basic notion behind the setup: total credit received exceeds the max loss metric of the short put vertical. Since short put vertical side is a one-wide, it has a standalone max loss metric of 1.00. The credit received exceeds that by .06, so even if GDXJ blows through 40, I'll still make money/not lose money if I do nothing, although I can certainly roll down the short call side to attempt to get something out of the play if it comes to that.
A defined risk counterpart of the same play would be something like the August 21st 41/42/55/60, put on for 1.00 or greater.
