GLD: long term target 320 by 2025I will start accumulating when GLD drops below 160.
As long as we stay above the blue trend line, i am bullish on this.
I do think we will drop below 170 short term.
GLD trade ideas
Long GLD With rising inflation and politicals risk all around the world, Gold continues to perform as a safe haven for assets. From the TA perspective, Gold has formed a double bottom and it is breaking out late march level ($1957ish). It is aiming for a 0.61 Fib level around $2000, possibly all-time high,
GLD/SLV RatioThis is setting up like the last silver run. Nearly identical patterns. Expecting SLV to outperform GLD the rest of their bull runs. Indicators nearly identical as well. NTA
Long GLD/ Short FinancialsGold to outperform financials if economy continues to slow.
Financials may be vulnerable to a pull back given the slowing economic backdrop and interest rate vol.
Financials essentially have a short strangle on interest rates as higher rates commonly reduce lending and slows economic growth. While lower rates reduce earnings on loans and pools capital to only the most credit worthy borrowers. They perform well in a "sweet" spot.
Gold has favourable macro economic back drop (although has been disappointing lately) and usually outperforms relative to other risk assets in vol shock.
Range bound, price action This is a good iron condor candidate due to the range bound action 175/185 ish
Buy the dips? So, I am sick with the Rona and needed a low stress trade today. Traded GLD twice and there was no skill. I literally just bought the dips. That's it. No TA. No math. Just literally bought the dips. My trades are listed below, I still have a couple runners:
But this made me think. Is GLD 2022 version of 2021 SPY? Can you literally just buy the dips?
Of course, I have to answer that question with statistics.
If you bought the dips since January of this year on GLD, here would be your outcome:
(For clarity, I define a "dip" as a drop below VWAP on the 5 minute chart. For this theoretical case study, I assume you would enter on confirmation that the dip had bottomed and was beginning its ascent and you would take profit at a retest of VWAP or slightly over VWAP).
You would have been successful 73.1% of the of time.
You would have had to stop out 14 times, or 26.9% of the time.
The remaining days there was no drop below VWAP and thus no dip to buy.
A little deja vu-y with SPY in 2021, no? Only I think in 2021 with SPY, you would have had to stop out 0 times LOL!
Your average return per share would have been 0.94 cents (SD = 0.53).
If you traded shares and traded a conservative 100 shares at a time, your gross profit would be:
$1,316
Minus stop outs (set at 20%) would be roughly 263.20.
For a net profit of $1,052.80.
Interesting!
Let's face it, SPY was so 2021. GLD is where its at now!
(Please note, this is for INFORMATION purposes only, I do not advocate such a strategy! It would be ridiculous and reckless. Do your due diligence before entering any given trade!).
ABC BullishPossible stop under C or where you see support.
Several green candles up and appears the green candles become smaller (Sometimes known as deliberation.) On Friday, a small red candle appears.
The target is D. If AB ends up equaling CD, then you can move the AB leg and extend it from C. The CD leg is often a lesser or greater fib level of AB and not always equal, but projecting the AB leg from C using the magnet, can give you a ballpark guesstimate.
Targets are calculated using the AB leg and fib levels. The fib retracement tool cam help you with this pattern. The 0 fib level would line up with C if it is indeed an ABC pattern, which is a pull back pattern.
The longer term DMAs (simple) are in order with key bullish crossovers marked with a green X. The shorter term DMAs (red, white & blue) or William's Alligator is also in chronological order.
For some reason this just feels right (o:
No recommendation.
Forget the past, but never forget the lesson.
Gold vs GrowthInteresting action occurring on GLD/IWM.
Dividing the price of gold by the russel 2000 would hopefully give a good risk on/off signal.
GLD head and shouldery looking, short term target ~170volume declining on back half of the formation. neckline break could spell trouble (call it 175-177 zone), would imply downside to 168 or so, a little below the 200 day. short term formation so might be short lived.
longer term, I still ee a beautiful cup-n-handle here, which i think stays in tact. if this pattern does validate, it seems the bottom end there would be nice to step in for exposure to the 10 year cup-n-handle pattern.
Volatility in Gold and how to play the Vol Premium / DiscountAs you probably know, Implied Volatility in assets like Gold or Silver has the tendency to rise when the price of the commodity rises sharply, unlike equities where IV rises when equity's price declines.
This means in case of Gold (GLD), when V.R.P. rises, and we have a PREMIUM in Implied Volatility, participants Iin the market think price will either continue or decline significantly.
We usually have complacency when V.R.P. is negative and participant in the market feel "nothing will happen" in the near future. In this case, IF WE HAVE A TRENDING MARKET, as we saw at the beginning of April, chances are Gold will rise.
As the market looks now, I expect GLD will continue its bullish trend, and when we'll have again a big PREMIUM in Implied Volatility, to see a sharp (technical) correction, but with no threat to the trend.
p.s. for more details about the Prmium/ Discount in Implied Volatility pease check my indicator o this topic:
Gold getting ready for a run back to the March highs?After consolidating for 1 month around 180, Gold is making its second attempt to break out and run higher. The longer term trend is in Gold bulls favor and so is the current macro environment. If it fails in the short-term, it's worth keeping an eye on for the bigger picture move up.
GLD/SLV RatioI anticipate that history will repeat itself eventually when SLV finally takes off. Set-up very similar in terms of chart specifics including Fib levels. Patience required.
GLD longer term bullish C&H patternGLD (or Gold, I don't play futures) look extremely bullish with a long term cup and handle pattern that has taken over a decade to set up. Was interested in waiting further into the week but yesterday's selling and the gap down today with the buying that has come in, just tells me to go ahead and get in. So going to pick up Jan 2024 call options. If you have any concerns over the stock market, this looks like a "no-brainer" type of place to go hide out.
Cup and handle forming on GLD! Time again to keep an eye on the price of GLD!
There are many factors that come into play with the price of gold. Our outlook remains bullish here technically and fundamentally. With the Fed having printed TRILLIONS over the last couple of years due to the pandemic they have drastically increased the supply of the dollar. This act has of course contributed to the inflation numbers we have been seeing over the last couple of months.
With the value of the dollar decreasing, we've seen drastic increases of value in multiple commodities such as lumber, nickel, copper, oil, natural gas...etc. As we see the dollar decrease further an inflation to continue higher it is only a matter of time before real money (Gold) starts to become the center of attention.
The headwinds against this in the short term is the Fed's decision to taper the purchase of bond assets so they can increase interest rates to "fight" inflation. The only problem with this is that we don't believe the Federal Reserve will really commit to fighting inflation via rising rates. Consensus for 2022 rate hikes at the moment is sitting around 4. This would likely put rates at around 1% by the end of 2022. If we include 2023 projections, we'll be looking at rates around 2% in 2 years (maybe 3% with more aggressive estimates). This flat out won't be enough to fight the inflation numbers that we're seeing.
Now if the Fed DOES decide to actively fight inflation and increase rates to upwards of 7% to fight this inflation, they will stunt economic growth and send markets spiraling downwards. We simply don't see the current regime at the Fed willing to do this. The only choice we have is to live with the current inflation for years and years to come.
GLD breakout is finally happening! Check out the monthly chart on GLD! We've gone over this breakout and if finally looks like we're getting a higher high.
We have been long on GLD and physical gold for awhile now as an inflation hedge.
This will also be an active play if tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate.
Looking at our fib extensions we see $200 and $210 are well within reach. AMEX:GLD
GLD - MonthlyFollow-up to the hourly I just posted. Nice cup pattern forming. Volume picking up and indicators moving up. RSI in the 2010 ascent started sliding and I could see that happening again with higher highs. NTA
GLD - Top Gun!What appeared to be a H&S pattern a few days ago has started to look like a stock on the move back up. Indicators still good with a weekly close above last week's down week. Sure I would have liked volume to pick up this week, but market volumes were low in most parts of the market this week and the bid under the precious metals space looks like it could last a little while longer. RSI and MACD on longer timeframes looking up. Tower this is Ghostrider requesting a flyby.....Affirmative Ghostrider the pattern is clear! Not trading advice.
Gold pull back in progress...Voth gold and silvah are read for aleast one more leg down...could be a 5 wave move...but at least for now get short or at a min exit longs for now...and watch the action at the end of the next leg down....then decide .
GLD - longGLD - watching for break above 172.20 for entry - possible swing here - aiming for 173.50 / 174.60 / 176+
will be watching for the open to see which direction we are going to go
GLD - Strong DayThis could have gone either way today. Not sure if this is going to have any follow-thru but interesting to note the breakout from the flag with minors strong as well. They may try and push this before qtr end as it has been a very strong quarter for precious metals and miners. Indicators still strong.
Call trade idea - GLD will rise if 10yr yield dropsFor now the yield is still inversely correlated with gold price. Yield may start falling again along with markets and if so then gold will rise. I bought 14Apr 182 calls. Stop loss suggestions based on 30m chart are 180.15, 179.70, 179.
Technically, green rectangles show a possible double dip RSI test at 50. If this holds and goes back up, it is usually a strong price move indicator. Yellow dotted lines show price can hold this support around 180 and move back up to 186, though I think it can rise sharply and approach highs again. Stochastic lines show a good place to enter swing calls with low risk. %D should stay over 20.
Macroeconomic impacts on GoldDue to increased inflation, it is expected that there will be a total of 7 interest rate hikes in the coming year (25 basis points each) to a total rate of 1.5% (last time rates were at this level was in the pre-pandemic 2019)
The first of which will be announced on Tuesday, March 15th - The Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 25 basis points. Increased rates will strengthen the dollar and lower demand for Gold. Which should have a pronounced effect as the U.S. controls the most gold in the world with 8,133 tons (World Gold Council)
However, the U.S. is just one part of this picture. The Ukraine-Russian conflict pushed Gold prices higher, leading to the breakout we see today. The 4th round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks is expected to occur on Monday, signaling increased potential for a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing war. Reduced possibility of further conflict will lead to a decrease of investors fleeing to safe-haven assets.
Is GOLD $GLD going to make a move to the upside!?Is gold going to make another move?!?
I think it might. First off with everything going on both in the USA, along with the Ukrainian & Russian war. I think gold (GLD) might be heating up.
If you look at the flow into options, I think it might suggest a very BULLISH future for gold, I mean its been consolidating on the weekly for a while now, and looks absolutely primed on the monthly.
I have listed 3 Targets (Options based):
#1 $187.41 - $188.65
#2 $194-40 - $197.00
#3 $200.00 - $205.00 is a lottery (holding over a few contracts from target #2)
Longer term I could see this hitting $220.00+, but at the current moment we will just play what is in front of us.
