GLD Idea $GLDAMEX:GLD
I am anticipating that GLD is on a Wave 4 correction to the T1 Green box target between the horizontal Blue lines.
Once the target is hit, I will reassess and look for a long position.
GLD trade ideas
GLD Is This Wave 4?The dramatic selloff in precious metals this week marks the end of a possible wave 3 of an impulsive wave. Silver looks much worse but thus far is holding above a supposed Wave 1. The alternative view, held by many, is that the recent rallies in PMs was a B wave in a corrective phase and much lower gold and silver prices are to come. WIll be watching silver closely for clues.
Stochastics are falling for both metals especially on the weekly and monthly views. Things do not look good. There is nowhere to hide in this upcoming wealth destruction phase. Not shorting the market but squirreling up cash for signs of a bottom in both metals. With gold silver ratio breaking to 104 today. Silver has to be the most unloved asset ever.
what do you think?So gold was being purchased becasue of the stock sell off. It smashed up against this zone, a strong zone. Ya think it will shot out of here once all the selling is done in gold from this zone?
I do. What do you think?
In Gold we trust? Considering a play on GLD the ETF representing Gold as It appears to be immune to the coronavirus. Hoping to snag an entry around 155 with hopes that a Bull flag is forming, which would set the target profit point around 168.
GLD to test highsThis looks like it is setting up for a nice run, watching 17April $160 calls or longer
GLD: Bat Pattern In Motion!!!Potentially Bat Pattern at completion levels. Waiting on some confirmation signal to go long.
Note this is hourly time frame.
Green zones are you profit taking zones
Red zones are your stop losses
Looking for a 0.386 retracement as first target
Looking for a 0.618 retracement as secondary target
GLD/SLV RatioGold has persistently pushed higher while silver has lagged causing the gold/silver ratio to hit an ATH. This is a high that dates back a century. As you can see from the 2009 - 2001 period when gold topped this ratio hit a bottom. it's been a long time coming but silver's time to shine will be here soon enough. I expect that silver will play some catch up while gold treads water. Silver's precipitous drop last week and gold's run up has truly skewed things. Watching this carefully but its time to accumulate a silver position in size.
GLD cup and handle formationPrice target 170 imminent.
1.) Margin call sellers from 2/24-2/28 gotten out, so lesser risks in this happening again.
2.) Sanders winning super Tuesday isnt' going to be good for the market.
3.) Rate cut is good for gold.
4.) Corona virus worldwide spread has not even peaked yet.
5.) SPY will enter bear market based on broken supply chain due to corona.
Dow, gold, bonds and BTC Tracking the performance of gold, bonds and BTC vs. the Dow since the largest weekly point drop in its history.
Gold Bull TrapFor the time being I am watching GLD to see if the $148 line holds. Market devaluation could further depreciate gold if this selloff continues. Carefully watching from the sidelines for now, $GLD for low risk plays $AUY for some high risk plays.
$GLD Shakes Out Hard as Asset Managers Tap Performers for CashGLD has dropped sharply as precious metals became a source of cash during the crash last week for overleveraged asset managers. But this could be a mechanically-charged shakeout in a continuing trend.
Gold Spike Follow UpWow what a big down day! Not stocks - Gold, which was down more on 2/28/20 than any of the US stock indices.
My 2/24/20 GLD post noted Gold/GLD could have a spike top near the new moon on 02/23/20, since then in spite of the virus panic Gold is down.
The crowd buying into this "safe haven" got burned.
High probability of more downside in the coming weeks.
Stochastic has had a bearish crossover and is now in the neutral zone.
RSI has a bearish divergence vs. the 02/04/20 price bottom.
MACD has a bearish crossover.
Very good chance GLD could reach the first support area.
The vast amount of bearish evidence suggest a decline could last months and even years.
Long term minimal target is test of late 2015 major bottom.
Mark
PEAK in place for longer term reversalThis is based on my dowsing work and there's some alignment with Martin Armstrong's cycles, though he would wait for the close of February.
Regardless, I'm basing this idea on my dowsing work, which indicates this as a lower high of an important and longer term peak in in GLD, /GC and even miners (see post on GOLD).
Where it stops, I don't know, but give yourself plenty of time. If it takes out the prior peak, I'd say I'm wrong.
Gold needs to dip and resetCongrats to anyone who has been long gold and if you have now is the time to take profit. Overall I am bullish on the metal but its plain to see it needs to dip a bit and reset a base from which to continue up further. Three arrows on this chart point to a pair of highs and a low in b/w them that combined we can project Fibonacci timing points from that have served relatively well thus far as far as trend reversals are concerned and we can see that we are upon a 2.382 extension that will probably mark a dip that is already potentially happening. I would like to see pullback hold the upper 140s from which we can go long again.
Gold has Very Powerful Sell SignalMoving completely above the upper Bollinger Band is probably the strongest possible sell signal. Its the signature of a panic climax and market upside exhaustion.
Today 02/24/20 GLD moved completely beyond the daily Bollinger Band, one day after a New moon, with a daily RSI bearish divergence, Gold Commercials have their largest short interest in more than twenty years!
This is about as good as it can get for signals in any market. This type of situation occurs only about once in a year, sometimes once in two years.
Extremely high probability that a major Gold top could be in place.
Yes, I know there's lots of scary "news" about the virus. Focus on the Gold markets indicators.
The last time I had this much conviction of a market turn occurring was in late December 2018 with the US stock market.
Please see my SPX posts in December 2018 and January 2019.
Mark
Gold Could be Spiking into a Major TopMy prior GLD post noted it was nearing major Fib resistance of the 2011 to 2015 bear market. That target has been achieved on the cusp of a seasonal bearish time that lasts until April.
Additionally, Gold occasionally will peak at or near new moons. 2/23/20 is a new moon.
Gold Commercials - their the group with the most money, have the largest Gold Futures short interest for in over twenty years!
Daily RSI has a bearish divergence.
I issue Red Alerts when there's overwhelming evidence of a bearish turn.
If GLD and Gold are at a potential top, the subsequent bear market could last for years.
This is a RED ALERT!
Mark
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #4- GLD - Put Debit SpreadTicker: GLD
Position:
- 21st Feb 2020 Put debit spread
- Long $150 strike Put - delta 0.90 - cost = $3.65
- Short $148 strike Put - delta 0.70 - credit = $2.04
- Net cost/ spread = $1.61
- Running 5x spreads (5x of both strikes)
Net cost = $805
Profit target/ break even/ exit:
- Max profit of the spread at expiry = cost of the spread minus the width of the spread = $1.61 - $2.00 = $0.39 (24% of cost of spread)
- If GLD remains under the short leg of the spread ($148) by expiry (21st Feb 2020) then the spread will have achieved maximum profit
- Break even for the spread at expiry is the long strike minus the cost of the spread ($150 - $1.61) = $148.39 (white line)
- Exit if GLD closes just above the break even point ($149/ Purple line)
- Can also exit the spread earlier if 80% of maximum profit is realized = 0.39 (max profit) x 0.8 = 0.312 + 1.61 (cost of the spread) = $1.92 (more conservative exit price for the spread)
Rationale:
- GLD appears to be stalling around the $148- $150 range
- Stocks are still a little too extended for me to look at longs, however i realize that higher equities are on the cards for the next week or so, this is a more conservative to way to play both the stalling momentum in gold and the relative strength in equities
- The upside is capped with this strategy, however it is still a relatively good risk/ reward, particularly with the higher delta spread (short leg being delta 70)
- TradingEdge
GLD/SLV Ratio ready to fall?SLV has been quietly going higher but gold's pace has been faster as of late. I expect this to begin to fall as silver works to break out of a long standing base. Very little downside left in silver at this point. Look for silver to outpace gold's percentage gains very soon. Looking for a ratio at 7.67 or so.
Nice breakout for GOLD again and SILVER is also looking good
Gold broke out again and i also like the chart formation what silver SLV is forming it's looking like a reversed Head & Shoulder.
GLD / XAUUSD - Getting toppy?I know people are very bullish with the yellow metal, in fact, everyone i know is bullish.... but something like this is a possibility. I think the easy part of the ride up is behind me and now I am being cautious from here on.
There's a difference between the XAUUSD and I was looking for around $1640 +/- on XAUUSD but GLD looks to be pretty toppy.
$GLD Nears Fresh Breakout on OutbreakGLD continues to display a positive posture as coronavirus fears temper economic growth expectations and ramp stimulus threats.
Above all major MA's and riding a green ichimoku cloud signal. Onward and upward.
GLDSystem T Performances: Annual Compound Profit 40%, Win Rate 55%, Risk/Reward Ratio 1:2, 20 Years of Backtesting Data, Over 100 Markets.
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Hi Traders,
I'd like to introduce the System T, a computerized trading system that analyzed and backtested the 20 years history data of over 100 markets.
This post is my sharing of how I think about systematic trading and the signals generated by the System T.
(This is my opinion only, NOT the financial advice.)
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Once the system finds a good trend, it will ride it as long as possible. The stop-loss will be adjusted accordingly to the new price movement.
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System T performances above will give you an idea of how it performs in the last 20 years.
Notice that this result was achieved only if I strictly followed the rule: "Only and Always Buy & Sell based on the System Signals".
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Thank you and good luck!
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