Potential Bearish Triple TOPPossible bearish scenerio for the IVV. We'll get confirmation next week. something to watch if the market begins turning down next week and into October.
IVV trade ideas
Stock Market vs Govt Bond Market. At the Dawn of ChangesIt's been 3 months or so since the late March quarter bullish exuberance took the stock market, Ethereum (ETHUSD), Bitcoin (BTCUSD), other crypto assets to their new 52-week and all-time highs.
This is now changing, while the stock market and cryptocurrency markets have stopped making new highs, despite the fact that Roaring Kitty is once again deafening everyone with her phenomenal calls.
Quite high inflation reports for the first quarter of 2024 became a kind of “cold shower” both for the market and for expectations of a possible reduction in interest rates, while the markets have been living this still unfulfilled dream for almost the last year and a half.
The Federal Open Market Committee is unlikely to adjust rates at its upcoming next meeting on June 11-12.
In any case, the prospect of any immediate rate adjustments is estimated at a modest 0.1 percent.
It has been nearly a year since the FOMC last raised the federal funds rate to its current target range of 5.25% to 5.5% in July 2023. And while FOMC members have signaled that labor market weakness could force them to cut interest rates, the labor market remains broadly resilient and unemployment low.
Fixed income markets are forecasting that September could be the first interest rate cut of the cycle. However, this is not certain as the estimated odds are currently around 50%. And again, these forecasts implied by the market can quickly adapt to economic news, and again - turn out to be unfulfilled dreams, just like the dreams of rate cuts that, as discussed above, markets have been living with for the last year and a half.
The main technical chart is the ratio, between iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) that is similar to mostly known SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST (SPY) on the one hand, and Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on the other hand. Both ETFs (IVV, TLT) were taken in "Total return" format.
In technical terms, the graph indicates on Bullish upside channel, as right here we're near its upper line, exactly like 17 years ago in second quarter of 2007.
Auxiliary RSI(14) chart indicates also that Stock/ Bond ratio is too overheated in favor to stocks.
The idea should not be seen as a call for immediate action.
However, it is wise to keep in mind that investing in stocks can seriously underperform Govt Bonds in the medium to long term.
Continuous "Adjusted" Dollar-Cost Averaging approach Long 1 5% drop from yearly highs was reached, pushed in 25%.
10% drop from yearly highs was reached, pushed in 50%.
deviated from plan, pushed in 100% when 10% was breached instead of 50%.
utilizing minimal leverage, 1:1.6 leverage, will work leverage down with additional deposits to 1:1 (means no leverage used) at the very least.
expect the SP500 to reach at least 4800 next year, potential rotate at this point possible or to be considered.
There is no stop loss, this is a life-long long-term investing strategy.
IVV | InformativeAMEX:IVV
If the ETF price moves above the bullish line, set around $439.15, there are three potential upside targets to watch:
Target Price 1 at $442.59.
Target Price 2 at $444.94.
Target Price 3 at $448.28.
Conversely, if the ETF price breaks below the bearish line at $435.53, there are a couple of potential downside targets:
Target Price 1 at $431.79.
Further down, there's an indicated Target Price 2 at $424.16.
S&P 500 has had its "crash" and is on its way to 500The S&P 500 had dropped about 27% from Jan to Oct 2022. From its 13 October 22 low It is still in an upward trend toward a high of about 500 sometime in January 2024
S&P loses 200 day and back into old down channelClosed below 200 day yesterday and pretty clear follow through today. You can see that that the price tested and is now back in the original down channel before the breakout in January. My guess is that we are at least going to test the center of the red channel and likely the blue trend line. Could even go as low as center of orange channel and test the purple trend line.
S&P trend is still downCrazy two weeks with some massive price swings. However, all said and done the down trend that started in January is still intact. Big test yesterday of resistance but ultimately failed with the gap up closed and no follow through after Fed rate hike. Looks like a good old pump and dump. The gray region (connects to gap up in 4/21) that I drew seems to be a very strong support and resistance zone, but again it could not hold it. Also failed to stay above the 200-day sma. Price looks to be making a double top with a slightly lower second top. If price closes below 20-day moving average band, then corrective wave is all but confirmed. Next question is, how low will it go.
S&P rally looks to be over for now based on 20 day MAIf you look back over this long correction since the beginning of the year, every time the price closed with a red candle below the lower bound of the 20 day moving average the price continued to move lower. I don't see why this time is any different.
I would expect support at the $380 and maybe down to the $375 level. That would bring the S&P right around the mid line of the channel. After that, don't know.
S&P test of 200 day and 2022 down channelYou can see that over the last two days that the S&P is jumped above the 200 day on Wednesday huge rally, which also broke above the April 2021 gap. However, today saw a rejection of the resistance of the down channel that started Jan 2022 ATH. This channel has rejected price solidly 2x times now.
The most probable thing would be to see a rejection and to head lower, likely testing the 370 level.
However, the market is fickle that way. Zag when you expect a Zig. Lot of talk about a Xmas rally. I think there is still some room to run up to the blue trend line, which is parallel to the other blue line connecting the major lows this year. That would be around 425 at the turn of the new year, but still a lower high.
IMO, market feeling super irrational like most bear market rallies. Somehow everything is better now that the expectation is a 0.5 instead of 0.75 rate hike, and inflation is only 7% instead of 10%. All things that would be market killers any other year. The Fed still expects to raise rates to 5% or more, so still several hikes to go. And the expectation is the next round of earnings in the new year will be down. I have a hard time seeing a truly sustained rally back to the ATH or higher. I personally did some light buying in October and hoping for some profits for xmas. I am not super enthused to buy for what looks like a small, but risky gain. Day traders may be happy for the next few weeks, but longer term still feels pretty bearish to me.
S&P repeat of August rally?Pattern looking a lot like August. With many traders taking vacation over the next month and lower volume, this would be a good time to see the market rally.
S&P holding at support of down channelS&P 500 is currently finding support at the bottom of the down channel. It is also the 0.618 fib level. Today's price action is up and trying to bounce off the support line. I personally don't think this is the bottom, but this is an important place to watch. We could get a good rally off this trend line like back in the summer. However, the recent short rally was unimpressive and we could drop hard down to the next fib level and trend line.
S&P 500 test of 20 day SMACurrent price action suggests test of 20 day SMA after finding support at the bottom of the channel and touch off the 200 week SMA (see my other posts on 200 week SMA). The new bullish counter rally is not really confirmed until it can hold above the 20 day and break the blue trend line. A bullish sign would be to break out, retest the 20 and the trend and then continue back up to the top of the channel. Rinse and repeat until the fed stops raising interest rates.
S&P 500 to test $350 by Oct based on 200 week SMAHere is a look at the 20 and 200 WEEK moving average on the IVV ticker. Note how the S&P has reliably tested the 200 week MA during strong corrections over the last 12 years or so. Rarely does the price go much below. It also seems reasonable to me that we both get a retest of the June low and a more significant test of the Feb 2020 high.
If we see this, then this is where I personally would start to get a lot more serious about going long. I am more of a "dollar cost averager" and have been moving some money into the market since May. I also think (given the current state of the economy) the $340-$360 price range should be a good place to build support (like 2015-2016 correction). Things are not looking as great from a liquidity standpoint with rates going up and the pull back on QE. Time will tell how much this will factor in. However, the job market is actually doing good, and people are still spending. Lets just hope that keeps up and we can avoid any kind of serious recession (2000 or 2008).
A look at the 1 day with 20 and 200 day SMA
S&P bounce off channel support - Will it hold?The S&P bounced off the channel support today. It also tested the 1.236 fib extension off the most recent peak. Both signs that a bounce was coming. There is also a gap that looks like it could be filled. In addition, this would be a good place for a test of the 20 day moving average by end of week if not early next week. Real question is will this hold or will we see another leg down. I would be more optimistic if we did not make a lower low yesterday.
Another reminder retailer investors are just along for the rideRelative movements in price between 2-4pm for the S&P 500 on the 15 minute timeframe.
2-2:15pm: -1.85%
by 3pm: +2.38%
by 4pm: -3.08%
Day ends at -1.68% overall
You think that all of your charts and analysis mean something, but at the end of the day the price moves based on what the big trading firms with their trillion dollar portfolios and their algorithms decide. We are just along for the ride.
S&P 500 Pull back confirmed - How low will it go?Following up on my 8/17 idea on the expected pull back in the S&P. The gap down below the 20 day average is a very strong sign the rally is over. The only question now is how low will it go before finding support. First stop may be the horizontal line that was a gap up. I would not be surprised for a test of the most recent low. I personally hope not lower than that.
S&P 500 end of rally and time for a pullback???Is this the end of that rally for the S&P? I see several strong indicators that this could be the end for now and a pullback is coming.
Testing 200 day moving average
Testing top of down channel
RSI very oversold
S&P 500 --> Short term $440 or $360???Here is my latest technical analysis for the S&P. Been stuck under the midline of the red down channel since May. With a gap down today and the midline and black trend line squeezing price, it looks like the market is getting ready to make its move Friday or Monday.
I see two key levels that we are likely headed towards. We could rally up to the the resistance of the down channel, which is around 440. Or, we could fall further to the 360 range (maybe 370). IMO, the upper move seems a bit more likely, but don't be surprised if we get some form of bear trap down to the purple dotted midline before the bounce.
1W to show the channels and trend lines
Why so much volatility at the current price levels for S&P???IMO it is because the S&P is testing the center line of the purple channel as support. This trend line has been the core support for the S&P since 2009. You can clearly see this support in the chart. If the bull rally is to survive, then it needs to hold this line. What you are seeing right now is a classic case of the algorithms and hedge funds fighting over which direction to go. It seems that the recent miss of expectations from both Target and Walmart are pointing to a breakdown of support here. If support is lost, then the next major support trend line is the center of the blue channel and most likely the bottom of the purple channel. Don't be surprised if we have a meltdown that looks like 2008 or 2020 before we hit that level. Also don't be surprised if breakdown more over the next week and then see a relief rally to test the purple centerline to see if it becomes resistance and not support. I think we all would like to see it bounce from here and test the bottom of the green channel, but the headwinds are strong, and I don't think unlikely.
1W
1D with 20 day VWMA and 200 day sma
4h
S&P 500 hanging on by a thread - Will Apple earnings decide fateWeakness this past week has brought the S&P down to test support for the green channel. A good finish to mega cap earnings this week could keep us in the channel. It is not obvious how high we could go, but we could get a good bounce and tread water until the next earnings period. However, any more average or worse earnings will send this thing lower down to at least the center line of the larger channel.
IMO, Apple will likely decide the direction of the market. They report their earnings today (4/28) after the market closes. In case you did not know, the ranking of the top 5 S&P stocks in terms of weight are:
1) Apple 6.86
2) Microsoft 6.0
3) Amazon 3.4
4) Tesla 2.08
5) Alphabet (Google) 1.94
I believe 2-4 have reported and had decent earnings reports. If Apple comes through, then expect a rally.
1D
1W
S&P 500 touching 200 day SMA - 68% chance of rallySince 2004
25 --> declines touch the 200 day SMA
8 --> continued into a larger correction
17 --> rebounded to some level
8/25 = 32% chance of bearish
17/25 = 68% chance bullish
Looking at the trend since 2004, it may take a week or two at these levels before it chooses its direction.
If I had to guess, this could be a likely match to today's place in the market.
20, 50, 100, 200 day SMAs
Caution ahead
dec 13 marks 90 weeks from march 23 2020 bottom.
11%-20% declines is what i will be looking for.
look for top of square of 52 as resistance around the 478-481 area.
not looking goodimportant weekly angles are being broken. be careful as a lot is now pointing to this being more than just a simple correction.
there is no doubt that taxing hurts economic growth more than it helps. the bull market of the 80s didnt start till regan lowered taxes after seeing the 70s with high tax rates.
santa might bring lumps of coal this winter.... no pun intended. ;)
