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IWM trade ideas

The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
IWM Has Bottomed but Not Ready Yet for Trend ShiftWhat Price Action Says: After a sharp decline, IWM has experienced a 15% rebound, signaling the end of the bearish trend. However, this doesn't mean the market is ready to shift upward just yet. For now, the most probable scenario is sideways movement, likely continuing through the end of Q2. A sustained upward move will require confirmation of a clear bottoming process, which has not been seen at this stage. Key levels to watch are support at 185 and resistance at 200. Until we see more confirmation of a stable base, expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase.
AMEX:IWM
by Quantific-Solutions
1
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again. Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again. Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. We did drop underneath that 35EMA on Wednesday when Jerome powell spoke and then reclaimed it on Friday!! So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of Trumps Week gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17 Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday. We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again. Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again. Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of the interest rate gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
IWM: Potential Trade Setup📊 IWM – Smart Money Playbook in Action 🔹 15-min chart | April 14, 2025 This IWM chart shows a clear sequence of liquidity grabs and structural shifts aligned with Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Here's a breakdown of the key moves and what I'm watching next: 🔍 Key Observations: Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) confirm bullish intent early on. Price retraced to a discount zone (below 0.5 Fib) and formed a strong base near $176.54–$178.15. The rally respected the 0.618 Fib retracement ($184.32), aligning with the equilibrium zone, where price is currently consolidating. 📈 Bullish Bias: We’ve seen a clean mitigation of the OB before the digging candle pushed into premium pricing. Price is now in the mid-range (EQ) between discount and premium. If bulls hold above $182.75, we could see a continuation toward the next liquidity levels. Next targets: 🔸 $186.80 (minor supply zone) 🔸 $189.50 (weekly inefficiency + liquidity) 🔸 Extended projection: $192–$193.75 (Premium + 1.618 extension) 📉 Downside Risk: A breakdown below $182.60 would invalidate this structure and shift focus to the deeper OB zone around $178.15. 📌 Trade Setup Idea: Entry: Above $183.00 retest with confirmation (PA or OB mitigation) Stop: Below $182.00 Target 1: $186.80 Target 2: $189.50 Target 3: $192.09 (old high) ⚠️ Watch volume reaction around EQ and VWAP crossovers. 💡 SMC, Fibonacci, and EMA confluence at play – let price show its hand before committing. 📈 Volume confirms intent – we just follow structure and flow. #IWM #SmartMoneyConcepts #VolumeAnalysis #LiquiditySweep #OptionsFlow #FibRetracement #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Wavervanir
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 25 De Abril 2025QQQ Pre-Market Analysis – April 25, 2025 General Context: The chart integrates SpotGamma levels, option walls, and potential reaction zones. It's designed to anticipate long trade setups based on call/put walls and retracement zones. 🔑 Key Zones and Levels Zone/Level Description 464 – 465 (Put/Call Walls) Strong support zone, ideal for potential long setups (Buy Zone). 467.35 – RB Bottom First key resistance zone or target if price bounces from support. 469.51 – RB Head Second target/resistance based on call wall and options positioning. 471.59 – 470 (Call Wall) Final upside target. Possible reversal zone or strong supply zone. 🧠 Trade Ideas (Long Bias) Scenario 1 – Early Bounce: Entry Zone: Between 464 – 465 Target 1: 467.35 (RB Bottom) Target 2: 469.51 (RB Head) Target 3: 471.59 Scenario 2 – Retest Before Breakout: Price may retest the Put Wall (2) at 464 before pushing higher. This gives another buying opportunity with confirmation from price action. Scenario 3 – Mid-range Consolidation: Watch the 467.35 level for a breakout/rejection. Above 467.35 with volume → bullish continuation toward 470–471. ⚠️ Critical Notes Vol Trigger @ 466: This is a pivot level. Holding above suggests bullish bias; below = caution. Zero Gamma Level @ 466: Another critical inflection point—watch reactions here closely.
AMEX:IWM
by JCAVGROUP
IWM Trapped at Key Gamma Pivot! GEX Squeeze or Breakdown ?🔮 GEX (Gamma Exposure) – Options Sentiment Overview 🚨 High-Risk Gamma Pivot Around 186–185.8 * IWM is sitting exactly on its highest negative NET GEX zone at 185.82, making this a key inflection point. * Dealers are likely long gamma here — a break below can force rapid adjustments, pushing the ETF toward 183–182, where more negative GEX builds. 🔺 Dense CALL Walls at 187–190–192 * There’s strong CALL resistance stacked between 187.94 and 192.12, with 190 and 192 showing large hedging flow. * Any upside attempt will likely stall into these zones without strong volume or macro support. 📊 GEX Sentiment Breakdown: * IVR: 43.3 → Moderately elevated, volatility potential remains. * IVx avg: 34.8, currently down –14.73%, signals a possible volatility contraction, which could hurt premium buyers and favor a grind or drop. * PUTS: 53% → Extremely heavy PUT positioning, indicating dealers are short gamma to the downside and could fuel accelerated selloffs if 185 fails. 🎯 GEX Flow Summary: * If 186 holds, expect more chop between 186–188. * If 185.8 breaks, price could snap toward 183 → 182 → 180, where next levels of PUT walls await. 🕰️ Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Chart Breakdown Price Structure: * Price is tightly coiled at the apex of a descending triangle. * Support is showing stress at 184.97–185.8, with lower highs forming — this looks bearish unless bulls reclaim the wedge. Indicator Confirmation: * MACD: Flat and neutral, no bullish crossover in sight. * RSI: Grinding lower under 50, consistent with bear pressure building. Levels to Watch: * Support: 185.8 → 183 → 182 → 180 * Resistance: 187.9 → 190 → 192.1 🧠 Final Thoughts: IWM is caught at a crucial gamma pivot with both sides hedged and waiting. Dealers are loaded with PUTs — if this slips under 185.8, we could see amplified selling toward 182 or even lower. However, if bulls reclaim 187.5 and flip VWAP, then 190 becomes possible. This is a gamma squeeze waiting for a trigger — prepare for volatility. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always use proper risk management and let price confirm your bias.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
Quantum's IWM Trading Guide 4/8/25IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) - Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000) Sentiment: --Bearish (softening). Pre-market put volume eased, RSI 44 up from 42, X posts overnight hint at an oversold bounce despite tariff fears, suggesting a less dire tone. Tariff Impact: --Moderate. Industrials/financials exposure persists. News/Catalysts: --Consumer Credit (April 8) could spark a relief rally if strong; X posts on tariff delays offer faint hope, though bearish bias lingers. Technical Setup -Weekly Chart: ---HVN above as resistance, weekly low as support. ---Downtrend (8-week EMA < 13-week < 48-week). ---RSI 44 (less weak), MACD below signal (histogram narrowing) ---Bollinger Bands near lower band, ---Donchian Channels below midline, ---Williams %R -70 (easing from -74). -One-Hour Chart: ---Support at yesterday’s low, resistance at midday high, weekly confluence. ---RSI 42 (up from 40), ---MACD below signal (histogram less negative), ---Bollinger Bands near lower band, ---Donchian Channels below midline, ---Williams %R -72 (up from -76). -10-Minute Chart: ---Pre-market bounce attempt, 8/13/48 EMAs flat (less steep), ---RSI 42 (up from 38), ---MACD flat near zero. Options Data: ---GEX: Bearish (softening)—pinning pressure eased slightly overnight. ---DEX: Bearish (softening)—put delta leads but less aggressively. ---IV: Moderate—25–30% vs. 20–25% norm, steady volatility. ---OI: Put-heavy—high OI below close persists. ---Directional Bias: Bearish (softening). GEX’s reduced pinning suggests less dealer-driven downside, DEX’s put delta bias weakens, moderate IV supports some volatility but not extreme moves, and put-heavy OI anchors prices lower—still bearish but with less conviction. Sympathy Plays: --TNA (Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X): Falls 3x if IWM dumps, rises if IWM rebounds. --TZA (Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X): Gains if IWM dumps, fades if IWM rallies. --Opposite Mover: IWM dumps → TZA rallies; IWM rallies → TNA surges. Sector Positioning with RRG: --Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000). --RRG Position: Lagging Quadrant. Tariff/rate drag persists. Top 5 Movers (Russell 2000): SMCI (+2%), MARA (+1.5%), RIOT (+1%), CVNA (+0.8%), PLUG (+0.5%). Bottom 5 Movers (Russell 2000): AMC (-3.5%), RKT (-3%), UPWK (-2.5%), ZETA (-2%), RUN (-1.8%).
AMEX:IWM
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's Premium IWM Weekly OutlookSentiment Overall Sentiment: Bearish with potential for reversal. Options Activity: Recent data shows elevated put volume over calls (e.g., 8 puts Ascending Triangle DEX suggests a bearish directional bias. Posts on X indicate traders are eyeing short setups, reinforcing this sentiment. 1 OTM Premiums: 0DTE (April 7 expiration): Call: $182 strike, premium $1.20 (moderate IV, ~35%). Put: $180 strike, premium $1.35 (moderate IV, ~35%). Weekly (April 11 expiration): Call: $182 strike, premium $1.45 (moderate IV, ~32%). Put: $180 strike, premium $1.40 (moderate IV, ~32%). Notes: Premiums are kept under $1.50 for cost efficiency in 0DTE and weekly trades. IV levels are moderate, reflecting recent volatility spikes but not extreme conditions, making these contracts attractive for short-term plays. Technical Indicators: Weekly EMAs (8/13/48): The 8-week EMA ($198.50) is below the 13-week ($202.10) and 48-week ($208.30), confirming a downtrend. RSI (14-week): 32, nearing oversold territory, hinting at a possible bounce. Market Context: Small-cap stocks like IWM have been under pressure due to tariff fears and a hawkish Fed stance. However, oversold conditions and seasonal strength in April could signal a relief rally. Potential: Continuation of the downtrend is likely unless a catalyst reverses sentiment, but a short-term bounce to $185–$190 is plausible given oversold readings. Tariff Impact Exposure: Moderate to severe. Analysis: IWM tracks the Russell 2000, comprising small-cap U.S. companies, many of which are domestically focused (e.g., manufacturing, retail). A 10% universal tariff, 25% on Canada/Mexico, or 46% on Vietnam could raise input costs for these firms, squeezing margins. Sectors like industrials (20% of IWM) and consumer discretionary (15%) are particularly vulnerable. However, tariff impact may be overstated—rising interest rates and a strong dollar are likely stronger drivers of recent weakness. Critically, the narrative around tariffs often amplifies fear beyond fundamentals, offering contrarian opportunities if panic subsides. News/Catalysts Recent News: Trump’s tariff rhetoric intensified last week, with small-caps hit hardest (IWM down 9.5% in 1M). The Fed’s hawkish December stance continues to weigh on risk assets. Upcoming Events: April 8: Consumer Credit data release—could signal consumer health, critical for small-cap earnings. Mid-week: Potential tariff policy updates—speculative but impactful. Speculative Catalysts: X posts highlight short interest in IWM and oversold conditions, suggesting a squeeze potential. A surprise Fed pivot or tariff rollback could spark a massive rally. Alignment: Small-caps are sensitive to economic data and policy shifts, making IWM a prime candidate for volatility-driven moves. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: Key Levels: High Volume Node (HVN): $195–$199 (prior support, now resistance). Monthly Open: $199.78 (resistance). Weekly Low: $176.67 (support). Trend: Downtrend since March peak ($208.52), testing year-lows. One-Hour Chart: Support: $179–$180 (confluence with weekly low). Resistance: $182.50–$184 (prior consolidation zone). 10-Minute Chart: Entry/Exit: Bullish: Break above $181.50 (8-EMA) with a hammer candle for a long to $183. Bearish: Breakdown below $180 with volume for a short to $177. EMAs (8/13/48): 8 ($181.20) > 13 ($181.00) < 48 ($182.30)—choppy, no clear trend intraday. Indicators: RSI (14): 38 (10-min), neutral but rising—watch for divergence. MACD: Near zero line, flat—momentum stalling. Options Data Weekly Overview Gamma Exposure (GEX): Bearish—pinning near $180–$182, dealers hedging accelerates downside below $180. Delta Exposure (DEX): Bearish—put-heavy activity signals directional selling. Vega Exposure (VEX): Neutral—moderate volatility potential, no extreme IV spike expected. Implied Volatility (IV): Moderate (~32–35%)—elevated but manageable, favoring sellers over buyers. Open Interest (OI): Bearish—high OI at $180 put and $185 call strikes, capping upside. Potential Price Targets Bullish: $185 (+2.2%)—tests weekly HVN; $190 (+5%) if momentum builds. Bearish: $177 (-2.3%)—revisits year-low; $170 (-6.2%) on tariff escalation. Trade Idea Bullish 0DTE (April 7): Trade: Buy $182 Call @ $1.20. Entry: Break above $181.50. Target: $183 (profit $0.80, +66%). Stop: $180.50 (loss $0.70, -58%). Bearish 0DTE (April 7): Trade: Buy $180 Put @ $1.35. Entry: Breakdown below $180. Target: $178 (profit $0.65, +48%). Stop: $181 (loss $0.85, -63%).
AMEX:IWM
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Market Update - 4/6/2025Was contemplating selling some puts to bet on a rebound next week given how oversold we are on all measures, but decided to pass. We are in uncharted territory and you never know how steep these markets can fall before they find support. After all, I'm not in the falling knife catching business. As for my active account, I only had a few small trades booking a small loss for the week. Still flat for the past month. Overall likely cash will continue to be king for a while. I'm always on the lookout for high RS names though, but now things are extremely shaky to be buying breakouts.
AMEX:IWM
by BenedekBokor
US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend!US Small Companies Index ‘Russell 2000’ in Critical Trend! Let's take a look from a Fundamental and Technical perspective; In 2020, the middle band (main trend line) of the logarithmic rising channel was broken and the upward movement had continued since then. Today, however, the same critical support level is being tested again. If it cannot hold at this level, a long-term trend break may occur. This would significantly increase the risk perception in Russell 2000 companies. What is Russell 2000? It does not include large technology giants such as Nasdaq or S&P 500, but small and medium-sized companies that hold the real pulse of the US economy. These companies are more fragile and more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. The spread of anti-Trump protests shows that small businesses are starting to be affected both physically and economically. The prospect of no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) is crushing these companies under high borrowing costs. The contraction in consumer spending can directly hit the profits of these companies because they are dependent on the domestic market. Possible Scenarios for This Week: 🔴 If the protests deepen and the market panics: If a break below $180 comes, the $170 support level is tested. With panic sales, the $150 - $160 region, which is the lower band of the channel, may come to the agenda. 🟢If the environment calms down and economic data signals a recovery: Strong purchases come from the middle trend line. $200 - $210 band can be targeted. In short, support is now being tested, if it breaks, the risk of serious decline is on the table.
AMEX:IWM
by ugurtash
Opening (IRA): IWM May 16th 190/195/220/225 Iron Condor... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: I think I have more than enough long delta on at the moment, so opting to go nondirectional/delta neutral here. Selling the 25's and buying the wings out from there, collecting one-third the width of the wings in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 3.30 Max Profit: 1.70 ROC at Max: 51.5% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in oppositional side on side test.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
IWM Below $195! Can it Survive the Gamma Squeeze Pressure?🧠 Macro Context * The Trump tariff news shocked risk-on assets, and small caps were hit hardest. * IWM broke below the $195-$199 demand zone, now sliding into dealer gamma hedging territory. * GEX flow now clearly suggests a momentum-driven selloff, with risk of gamma acceleration if $192 breaks down. 📊 Technical Analysis (1H) 🔺 Previous Structure: * IWM retested $201 after consolidating for days, then dumped hard, invalidating the breakout structure. * The large red candle broke through the HVL zone ($199) and cleared multiple support levels in one move. 🔻 Current Zone: * Trading near $192.40, where there's no immediate gamma support, making this a vulnerable spot. Key Levels: * Immediate Resistance: * $198 – PUT Wall zone (2nd wall) * $199–$201 – HVL, former support now resistance * $203–$206 – stacked GEX CALL walls * Support Zone: * $191.43 – session low * $190–$188 = potential short-term bounce zone if VIX compresses * Below $188 = open gamma air pocket to $185 🧨 GEX + Options Sentiment GEX Analysis (Options GEX ): * 🔴🔴🔵 GEX = short gamma, dealers are likely short puts and hedging by selling into weakness. * $198: 2nd PUT Wall and GEX floor — breaking this triggered the slide. * No firm GEX support until $190, meaning price can overshoot downward. Options Oscillator: * IVR 40.4 / IVx avg 39.7 – moderate vol setup, but rising put pressure post-tariff. * PUTs 21.5% – leaning bearish * Spike in upcoming OPEX gamma positioning means dealers are reactive, not supportive. 🎯 Trade Setups 🐻 Bearish Continuation: * Entry: Breakdown below $192.00 * Target: $190 → $188 * Stop: Above $195 reclaim * Contracts: 0DTE or 2DTE $190P / $188P 🐂 Bounce Reversal Play: * Only viable if $192.00 forms a strong base and we reclaim $195 with volume * Target: $198–$201 (retest of breakdown) * Contracts: 0DTE $195C / Spread to $198 🔍 Conclusion: IWM is under pressure with no strong gamma cushion until $190. If $192 fails, expect volatility spikes. Dealers are likely hedging against further downside. Only reversal signal would be a strong reclaim above $195–$198, which may spark a reflex rally. Suggested Play: * Scalpers: $192.00 key pivot * Swing: Bearish bias into $190 unless bulls reclaim $195 HVL zone * Options: Puts for continuation / tight call spreads only above $198 Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade with discipline.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
1