Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 186 Monied Covered Call... for a 181.70 debit.
Comments: Buying stock and selling the -75 call again to emulate a 25 delta short put that is "defense ready" via roll of the short call.
4.30 ($430) max on buying power effect of 181.70; 2.37% ROC at max; 1.18% at 50% max.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on price's traverse of the short call strike to reduce cost basis further.
IWM trade ideas
IWM - iShares Russell 2000 - About to Drop MoreI always say that Price will always follow the MFI so when you see a strong Divergence between the MFI and the Price Movement it's only a matter of time. I've shown my Price Point Expectations in the relatively near term though it generally doesn't move too quickly.
$IWM: Topping out at top end of channelThis is a follow-up from my AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ note:-
-> Classic top out with MACD peaking at +2.5x standard deviation and accumulated volume topping out at +3.5x standard deviation.
-> Very likely witnessing a lower high forming at 0.618x fibonacci retracement.
IWM Channel BreakoutIWM is trying to break back out of the channel it's been in since April 2022. It broke out briefly in late December, but was rejected. This second breakout attempt looks promising, and usually leads to ATH after this much consolidation. Lots of earnings reports this week, but if the market holds up, small caps should have some room to run.
$IWM Weekly Chart Bear FlagIf this pattern fails, best moves come from failed moves. The technical analysis for AMEX:IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) on the weekly chart indicates the formation of a bear flag pattern. In technical analysis, a bear flag pattern typically appears as a downward-sloping channel or rectangle on a price chart. It forms after a significant downward price movement, followed by a period of consolidation characterized by lower highs and lower lows. This pattern suggests that the downward trend may continue, with the potential for further price declines. Traders often interpret a bear flag as a signal to sell or short the asset in anticipation of further downside movement.
IWM: 4 Hour Bull Flag targeting Top of Ascending ChannelThe IWM(Russel 2000 ETF) is consolidating in what looks to be a Bull Flag and if it breaks out the target would take us to the top of the macro Ascending Channel which would take us to the resistance zone of $200-$210. If I had to guess I'd say IWM could likely make its way up to that level by the end of next week.
Gap & Go to $200 perhaps?If we hold this gap area, I'm willing to bet that we might make it to $200. I just saw what NFLX is doing for earnings despite okay #s. Looking fwd to seeing what tomorrow brings. 0
*IWM = small caps (stockanalysis.com)
**TSLA earnings after hours 1/24/24 - i remember when TSLA didn't participate in a rally post COVID. When ready to rip, it will rip!!!
💡 $357 profit with 72% PoP STRANGLE - #1 trade in my challangeTrade Overview:
Initiated my first options trade for the annual challenge on January 2nd with an IWM strangle. Observing high IVR in the index, I capitalized on the recent VIX spike to enter the 45DTE 212/188 strangle for 3.57cr.
Trade Management:
Rolling Strategy: Will roll legs as needed before expiration if price diverges.
Loss Management: With a FWB:12K account, I'm capping floating loss at $200.
Closing Strategy: Targeting to close around 21DTE.
Trade Details:
Symbol: IWM
Option Type: Strangle 45DTE
Entry Date: January 2, 2024
Entry Price: 3.57cr
Required BP: $1681
Max Profit: $357 (20% of capital)
PoP: 72%
Positions:
IWM Feb 16, 2024 212.00 CALL - Sell | Price: 1.76 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.251 | Fees: 0
IWM Feb 16, 2024 188.00 PUT - Sell | Price: 1.81 | Qty: 1 | R. PnL: 0 | Commission: 1.2511 | Fees: 0
Key Metrics:
Tasty IVR: 42 (High)
Breakevens: 184/215
Russell 2000 ralliesThe three major US stock indices eked out modest gains yesterday to mark fresh record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended above 38,000 for the first time ever. But the best performance came from the Russell 2000 which closed up 2.0%. This is the US’s ‘mid cap’ index. It is a broad-based look at smaller US companies covering a wide range of businesses which are more domestically-focused than the three majors. It isn’t overly-weighted towards tech or financials. In fact, its largest sector which accounts for over 17% of the index, is industrials. Consequently, the Russell 2000 is thought to be a better barometer of the state of US business world than the other majors. It has lagged both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 for a while now. Last year it rose 16%, compared to a gain of 24% for the S&P and 43% for the NASDAQ, although it did beat the Dow which ‘only’ managed to rise 13.5%. More significantly, it is currently around 18% below its November 2021 record high, so it certainly has some catching up to do. Or the three majors have some catching down.
Opening (IRA): IWM Feb 16th 187 Monied Covered Call... for a 183.65 debit.
Comments: Doing things a little bit differently here, buying stock and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate the delta of a 25 delta short put, but with the ability to immediately defend the position with the short call, rather than waiting to roll the short put.
First, the metrics:
Max Profit: 3.35 ($335)
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis/Break Even: 183.65
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 1.82%
ROC at 50% Max: .91%
Delta/Theta: 23.1/6.31
Now, the why ... .
Previously, I looked to ladder out short puts targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit and utilize a portfolio-wide short delta hedge which used buying power to put on and maintain.
Here, I'm looking to manage risk on a per-position basis and to take advantage of some IV skew on the call side (i.e., the IV on the call side is greater than the IV on the put side at the correspondent put strike). Because of this, the premium/max profit is a smidge richer doing things this way relative to just selling a put.
This only makes sense in a cash secured environment, where you don't get much BP relief going short put over covered call. On margin, this wouldn't make a lot of sense from a buying power efficient standpoint, so I'd use a different setup where I could manage side risk more effectively (e.g., short strangle, iron condor, Jade Lizard). Naturally, there are more BP efficient, IRA-friendly setups (e.g., Poor Man's Covered Call), but they have some warts of their own.
From a trade management standpoint, I'll still look to take profit at 50% max, as I would've with the short puts and look to roll out the short call for a credit if it's tested, reducing cost basis further and improving my break even. Since I have nothing on here, I'm going shorter duration than I ordinarily would, but will start building out in longer duration at intervals as I did previously.
On a side note, most people (unscientific survey, gleaned from culling through relevant Reddit posts) who "wheel" or do covered calls do not like this setup because it caps out profit, and I fully understand the preference to sell out-of-the-money calls against your stock and manage the position from there, particularly if the stock pays dividends that are decent. My personal preference, however, is to book realized gains "liberally," have a minimal of crap piles on at any given time, and generate a fairly regular cash flow. As we know from the past year, the market doesn't always go up, and the important thing is to be able to reliably make money in up, sideways, and to a certain extent, down markets with a minimum of headaches which is what these setups (out-of-the-money short puts, monied covered calls) allow me to do. Does it have a hugely sexy ROC that I can show off to chicks at bars? No. Does it pay for the bar tab? Certainly ... .
iShares Russell 2000 ETF - Waiting for a better opportunity iShares Russell 200 - AMEX:IWM
I'd be waiting for an opening
▫️ Break above overhead resistance
▫️ Bounce off the base support
▫️ Min 200 week MA bounce (tight stop).
A wait and see from me
🚨Declining On Balance Volume (OBV) not ideal.
✅Upward sloping 200 week is a positive
Bearish Outlook for Russell 2000 IWMSigns of bears waking up on this one. 2-4 line brake with VI flipping a few days ago. Significant for high chance of trend reversal. RVI gaining momentum in the negative. This scenario also fits greater channel confines that IWM has been obeying for months. Could be a start of a downward ?A/X wave.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green or purple (short positions) with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
$IWM - Failed breakoutAMEX:IWM couldn't break through the sideways consolidation channel. If $195 couldn't be reclaimed soon, it could see further downside.
Downside Targets:
$188
$183 (Critical support)
The $183 area is critical support because it concurs with both the neckline support of the previous head and shoulders (H&S) pattern and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
I will update the chart when I see a reversal.
IWM: Week of Jan 8thPer request, here is IWM.
My immediate TP for IWM is a move to 189, which is PL2 on the month.
There is where I would look to get long:
ARIMA has IWM as down-trending into next week and I concur with this assessment.
189 is also within the low range forecasted for next week.
IWM has a similar setup to SPY on the weekly via Heikin Ashi:
But we do have some bullish upside on the horizon judging by the daily:
Again, timelines are wishy washy with all of this, its a matter of waiting for whichever setup comes first.
As of now, imo, the setup is short to 189 and then, provided this level holds, a long for a bounce.
We will see how it plays out next week, we do have that GT on the month as with SPY. I am curious how this is all going to unfold.
Those are my thoughts on IWM!
If you have any ticker you are interested in and want me to cover for next week, leave a comment and I will make a point of going over it!
Thanks all,
Safe trades :-)