Opening (IRA): IWM Dec 15th/Dec 29th/Jan 19th 160/157/153Comments: Targeting the <16 delta short put strikes paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
December 15th 160: 1.64 credit
December 29th 157: 1.63 credit
January 19th 153: 1.57 credit
IWM trade ideas
Opening (IRA): IWM February 16th 151 Short Put... for a 1.58 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I would've gone shorter duration, but already have rungs camped out at where I would've pitched my tent, so starting to building out first quarter rungs here.
Weekly Update: Do Small Caps Still Lead the Broader Markets?We've all heard that the small capitalized publicly traded companies lead the larger cap companies, more so featured in the broader indices. A quick look back shows the Small Caps Topped in November 2021, whereas the Nasdaq and SP500 did not top till January 2022. Subsequently, the IWM bottomed in June of 2022, and it took the NDX and SPX till October of 2022 to form a bottom.
So it appears we do not have to go back too far to see this phenomenon is still valid. If this price action of leading the broader markets continues to persist, then the IWM is now poised to literally "Drop like Rock".
A quick observation shows the small caps are around their lows bouncing slightly for wave 2 in our primary c-wave down. You can read my prior posts on the SPX and NDX indices but it appears if you want to know if the recent bullish feeling rally in the DJIA, NDX and SP500 has sustainable legs...look no further than the IWM.
Best to all,
Chris
Wave and Pattern "Force" in actionIWM wave and pattern force "action" or urges." Notice the 5 wave push down (not elliot) as revealed by the poc leveling off at w2 w4 consolidations. Then the down exhaustion and pop to the short seller zone just below "neutral unwound." The space between avwap from the top, and 50% range. Note where poc is. The three big horsemen w gravity, or magnetism. Price tends to unwind to neutral unwound and traders knowing that will tend to step in front "the shorter zone" to exit their longs off the bottom., to get filled. Then tends to "recommit." The common morph would be 12345 down, inverted h&s up to neutral unwound..wedge up and box consolidation up and probe for the week side. ONce the weak side is revealed they would tend to push into it. To a lesser extent they would trap at that point. It's tends to be rangers in charge 70-80% of the time and trender's (big order slow agenda) in charge 20-30% of the time. When one side asserts over the other there is usually a reaction w a biigger (market order chase price candle) as the other side has to "give in" and scramble for the exit an or flip sides. 50% retraces tend to rule, followed by avwap which gives bias to 50%, followed by poc which tends to give bias to each of the others. They tend to all comes within close proximity of each other as the day goes on. The days neutral unwound (50% range/vwap) tends to give bias to the opening 1 min range. If you run that neutral unwound range thru the day note how many times price moves thru it, to it on a normal range day, perhaps 10-20 times on say a 1,2,3 min chart. vs a trend day..may return to it or touch if 1-5 times.
Opening (IRA): IWM Dec/Dec 29th/Jan/Feb 154/151/146/141... short put ladder.
Comments: Adding on weakness at strikes better than what I currently have on, targeting the <16 delta strike to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
December 15th 154: 1.60 credit
December 29th 151: 1.63 credit
January 19th 146: 1.49 credit
February 16th 141: 1.50 credit
Opening (IRA): IWM Dec 19th/Jan 19th 146/142 Short PutsComments: Squeezing in a couple of extra rungs here at strikes better than what I currently have on, targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
December 29th 146: 1.47 credit
January 19th 142: 1.47 credit
After this, will primarily look to do "housekeeping" trades running into the end of the year ... .
Calling all investors!Overview
The Russell is at a potential attractive buy area for long-term investors.
The Details
The Russell ( FX:US2000 ) stock index is in a retrace move. Price is currently between the monthly 50 and 100 SMA's.
Historically, buying when the price is between the moving averages has been a favourable entry area for long-term investments.
Things to Consider
Recession could be on the horizon for the US. This would likely drive prices lower, especially for the Russell 2000.
Using an ETC, such as IWM, is often better for investing in stock indices than futures or OTC products.
Other stock indices may decline further before reaching new highs. The positive correlation between stock indices could bring the US2000 down further.
$IWM: Huge down trend signalAMEX:IWM : Down trend here points to a move that can wipe out the entire uptrend since the COVID bottom.
Signal confirms tomorrow on close, valid while below the area where distribution happened (the area with the highest trading activity while sideways before breaking down)
🚨🚨🚨
Best of luck, stay safe out there.
Cheers?
Ivan Labrie.
Will Russell 2000 Lose 24% of Value?Russell 2000 Testing key level. Would make sense to get a bounce from here, but the 2 year downtrend clearly shows bear pressure. If we break 159 next target is 145
If we get back inside of the triangle, I think this analysis is invalid and we might continue upwards
ps. This is weekly chart so this will take time unless we get some kind of catalyst
Active Trades GOLD , DYDX and XRP
-PalenTrade
Spx Bounceok we're getting a recovery rally, but be aware tomorrow they could sell down to create one more low which I would think would be a bear trap. I can't say it's THE "bottom" but we could be starting to make a bottoming pattern here. RSI needs a reset, watch NQ and tech especially for an outperformance rally if I'm correct.
Good luck!
IWM breakdownIWM weekly chart looking very weak. It has been in a distributive range for almost 18 months now, making lower highs and holding a buy wall. After such a long period of consolidation could believe there is significant follow through on this move in time. Doesn’t send a great signal for the economy, yes the market is not the economy but usually small caps struggle when the economy struggles.