IWM trade ideas
IWM daily indecision pressure building for wave 5 of wave 3 downIWM daily indecision pressure building for wave 5 of wave 3 downtrend.
Sell 12 Stop 163.02 LMT 163.02 GTC
Buy 12 Limit 151.83 GTC
Buy 12 Stop 171.15 GTC
UPDATE_IWM Elliott Harmonic Wave AnalysisOverview: this is a quick update to my IWM count published on September 5th. Let's review our expectations on that update:
We are in wave 3 of A of (Z) of 2.
Update: The labeling needs no update. I think wave III of A of (Z) of 2 is near completion.
Order SELL 1 IWM JAN 17 '25 150 Put Stop 19.00 LMT 19.00Order SELL 1 IWM JAN 17 '25 150 Put Stop 19.00 LMT 19.00 will be automatically canceled at 20230101 00:00:00 EST
IWM daily bullish hammer wave 3 of wave 3 downtrendIWM daily bullish hammer at support wave 3 of wave 3 downtrend volume confirmed. Wave 4 gotta be quick it's a countertrend. Stop loss below local low, take profit at new resistance.
Update (IRA): IWM Sept 30th 177/Nov 18th 200 Long Put DiagonalComments: Just updating my short delta hedge (See Post Below) in IWM so that it appears more toward the top of my ideas queue ... . As of the last short leg roll: Cost basis of 22.58 with a 177.42 break even on a 23 wide.
As you can see, price has pushed up quite a bit into the long leg of the setup, but I'll keep rolling the short leg out to reduce cost basis and look to roll the long leg up and out if I run out of time and/or don't get the move I need (i.e., back through the short leg of the setup; this may be somewhat of a tall order at this point, that's 18 strikes below where IWM is currently trading). At the moment, doing this would cost me (and will probably cost me when I actually go ahead and do it). For example, rolling the November 18th 200 long to the December 16th 230 (90 delta), would cost 28.69 at the mid price, increasing my cost basis to 51.27 on a resulting 53 wide with a 178.73 break even (a slight improvement over my current 177.42 break even).
I've still got 7 potential rolling opportunities of the short leg from week to week, so will cross that bridge when I come to it ... .
IWM daily short long day candleSetting up short after bearish gap and go in hope for retest of the candle, not the gap. Wave 5 down. I mean, look at this volume. I hope this is not an exhausting yet )))
Update IWM shortLook at selling vol and look weekly stoch heading south
IWM going to test its low and break it will really drop.
up 12% IWM short.
Rolled (IRA): IWM September 30th 178 to November 18th 173... for a 2.02 credit.
Comments: (Late Post). Rolled this out late on Friday so that I can be out of September contracts, as well as reduce buying power effect and cost basis.
Credits collected of 1.80 (See Post Below) plus 2.02 for a total of 3.82.
Opened (IRA): IWM November 18th 152 Short Put... for a 1.53 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 strike in the November monthly paying around 1% of the strike price in credit on weakness/higher IV.
SHORT | IWM | FED Meeting UpdateAMEX:IWM
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Bearish Divergence, Price Action, Money Flow
Timeframe: Before FED meeting in March.
TP: 178$
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
Pig Market: Why IDC about the CPI8.5 prior
8.1 expected
8.24 cleveland fed estimate
??? actual
Everyone is going crazy about this CPI data like its gonna change anything. We already know inflation has peaked and will start to decline. It's doing that because the economy is slowing. The fed is still hiking and the inflation isn't going to go away fast enough for a soft landing. The markets may adjust to the data tomorrow, but it's not going to change our destiny: a recession by end of year.
Find the next peak, sell it, or short it. This moon mission is cancelled and you'll be stranded in space.
IWM: Monthly outlook (September)Thought I would share my analysis on IWM. Not a lot of ideas get posted on IWM and its kind of an under-rated stock.
I scaled in short today before close (with TZA). Expecting this to be a bit early with CPI. I have a feeling the market wants to rally with CPI. The reason being is that the first projected monthly high for IWM is 194 (green line on the chart). There is roughly a 50% chance we see this high this month.
The monthly low is 176.56 and the odds we hit that are incredibly high.
INCREDIBLY.
HIGH.
So I am ideally swinging to this level. I am kind of hoping this is able to rally up to 194. This would be a clear area to go fairly heavy short. Whether it gets there, not sure. The market overall is quite overbought with this counter-trend rally. It really, I think, hinges on the CPI results.
For the end of the month, IWM is looking to close below 187. So this makes me rest assured in my TZA position... for now.
Anyway, that's it. Very brief and to the point post.
Let me know your thoughts!
Trade safe everyone!
Rolled (IRA): IWM October 1st 161 to the November 18th 163... short put for a 1.10 credit.
Comments (Late Post): Rolled this out at >50% max to the strike in November paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I might usually just take profit and close this out, but still need small cap long delta for a bit here while I manage my IWM short delta hedge. Total credits collected of 1.62 (See Post Below) plus the 1.10 here for a total of 2.72 relative to a price for the November 18th 163 of 1.71, so I've realized gains of 1.01 ($101) to date.
IWM THESIS SET 12.9.22CPI coming out pre market tomorrow. Catalyst will activate one of these scenarios potentially.
IWM short play and double top forming 9.9.22IWM will rebound off a zone and create a double top. The trade is buying and swinging puts, then trailing stop as the market dips next week with CPI #'s
Closed (IRA): IWM October 21st 158 Short Put... for a .73 debit.
Comments: Opened this for a 1.59 credit. (See Post Below). Out here at a smidge greater than 50% max. .86/$86 profit.
IWM play pre 9/16 '22 MAX PAIN THEORY 3:1 P/c ratioMM manipulate the market Bullish for the 9/16 options cycle to expire. 3:1 P/C RATIO on IWM.
$IWM beautiful set up!!! This is absolutely beautiful. Bull flag down to support but also was a gap back fill. Elliott Wave is fully in effect 12345ABC pattern. Bounce at support line from the bull flag. Insane how everyone is so bearish on tv though. There are concerns such as the $DXY going higher, mid terms, fed raising rates faster than expect, geopolitics and others which could push prices lower easily. Also oil has gotten a tail whooping this week which could’ve helped boost equities.
IWM daily gap and go that didn't goIWM daily gap and go that didn't go. strong selling. I think we are going lower.
IWM Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the key points of published IWM update of August 20th:
The correction started from ATH is a wave 2.
So far, we have completed 2 zigzags of wave 2 and a third zigzag is about to come later this year.
Now, I believe that wave (X) top is in.
Update: I just need to publish the hourly chart to see how accurate was our previous prediction:
We are in wave c of 3 of A of (Z) of 2.
Levels to Watch:
1) Based on the volume profile of wave (X):
2) Based on support/resistance levels:
Opened (IRA): IWM October 21st 158 Short Put... for a 1.59 credit.
Comments: Late post ... . I think I missed this one in "The Friday Frenzy." Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
