Rolling: IWM July 1st 158 Short Put to July 1st 173... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Rolling up the short put aspect of my July 1st IWM short strangle, the short call of which is at the 194 to cut the delta/theta ratio to around 1:1. Total credits collected of 6.33.
It's now delta/theta -12.03/14.85.
IWM trade ideas
Rolling (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put to July 8th 164... for a 1.04 credit.
Comments: With the July 1st 154 at greater than 50% max, rolling it out to the <16 delta strike in the expiry nearest 45 days paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 1.64 (See Post Below) plus the 1.04 here, for a total of 2.68.
Rolled: IWM June 17th 165/200 Short Strangle to July 1st 158/194... for a .90 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gain here on this little bounce, recentering side risk, and receiving a credit all at the same time. I rolled both sides to the 16 delta strikes, so that the position is back to delta neutral.
Total credits received of 4.69, relative to a current short strangle price for the July 1st 158/194 of 3.28, so I'm up 1.41 ($141) on the position.
Another Straight Forward Trade DIA and IWM are both pretty under-rated stocks to day trade.
IWM is actually slightly better than DIA because it has similar options liquidity and expiries to SPY.
IWM is set up really nicely for either a swing short or intra-day short plays.
We have IWM confined to a downtrend for the past little while. And while SPY and DIA were somewhat able to break out of their downtrend, only to come crashing back down today, IWM has pretty much remained within this channel.
On the 1 hour we see it set up pretty nicely. We also see a nice little bear flag.
I mean this doesn't need much more analysis, its pretty straight forward.
Based on math projections, we can expect to break at least to but likely below 173.75 tomorrow.
If you want to swing for a bit of a larger gain, I would actually say IWM is set up okay for that as well. Conservatively I would set your first target to 170.
Just my thoughts and what I'm seeing!
Trade safe everyone!
Opening (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Keeping on keeping on ... . I don't have much IWM on, so am selling something new in the July 1st expiry, targeting the <16 delta strike that is paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
Rolling (IRA): IWM May 27th 183 Short Put to July 1st 179... for a 1.72 credit.
Comments: Staying mechanical and rolling to the strike nearest 45 days until expiry for a credit that is about 1% of the strike price. Total credits collected of 8.54. Although it's in-the-money, my cost basis is now the short put strike (179) minus total credits collected (8.54) or 170.46 relative to where it's currently trading at 176.40.
IWM - P5 arrived? If so, we bounce!The #IWM has traded in a wonderful way.
Watch how the #Medianlines , the whole #Pitchfork provided support, resistance and - if you know the rules, how they could be applied to make some $s.
However, we arrived on the P5, which is potentially morphing to P0 for the next move to the upside. Alltough I personally don't believe it because of this market environment, chances are high.
...can you hear the emotions nagging on me to un-follow the rules? §8-)
If we open next week below the L-MLH, we would trade further down to the WL (Warning Line).
As far as my trades are designed, I risk tiny and try to let them run by following the rules and Money-Managent.
#iwm #medianline
IWM - Russel's next haltGiven the nice turn at the Center Line, we have a new target for the IWM: L-MLH...at least IMO.
The yellow pitchfork is here to see, if the ongoing flow, the direction will change, and if the momentum is increasing or not.
If not, price will trade outside the U-MLH. Otherwise we will see a fast and hard drop.
Small Caps are dirt cheapThese types of mean reversion trades can be very strong because capital likes to move back and forth between sectors in a cyclical way. It seems like the current trend is to sell off small caps to buy large caps, but it could easily be that the trend in 2023 shifts back to selling large caps and buying small caps, so it makes more sense to have higher exposure to small caps.
Consumer Sentiment, Inflation and Market CrashWhat is the UMCSI Showing to us?
The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of too much money in circulation. Even fiscal policies (“Free money” programs) are rooted in monetary policies. If the government ask for money nobody has at hand, the FEDS issue debt and create the liquidity needed to pay for those programs. This is important to understand. They create money out of free air.
Follow GDP NOW from the Atlanta Feds and we will see how growth is constantly fading away. Will we have a second quarter in the red?
GDP Outlook.
The UMCSI is at its lowest level since the virus was released, which was the lowest ever since, even under Bush, Obama and Trump. We also had the first Quarter of the GDP coming in negative this year. Two in a row makes it officially a recession.
And Stocks?
We also see that the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russel 2000 are about to hit 20% below the most recent high. A 20% correction will be seen as a recession in the broad market. Why? Because earnings of the underlaying companies will come in lower than they used to do. Also, the higher the stock price gets the more is expected for their growth. Relatively to their value the stock has to grow more to produce the same ROC. Otherwise the EPS (Earnings Per Share) will slump and investors will look for other opportunities. This makes the stock market less attractive the more it grows. Other investments are also less risky. And, i.e., about 50% of the IWM, Russel 2000, cannot serve their debts!!
The Party is over my Friends.
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