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IWM trade ideas

Head and ShouldersIWM appears to have broken the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, consolidated in a horizontal trading range, or a rectangle, and has broken the support line of the rectangle. Massive negative crossover of the longer term moving averages at about the same time price broke the neckline. On the Cloud, below, the Tenken crossed through the Kijun at the same time. This is almost a "reverse" of a Parabolic Arc but to the downside as the candles are almost straight down. It would seem selling pressure would ease soon, but the market seems to be in panic mode. I figured out a long time ago that Mr. Market does not do what I tell him to do )o: Price is under the Bollinger bands set on 80 showing an extreme oversold condition. RSI is also oversold. These conditions can go on for extended periods of time. I scanned the chart and there are no rising wedges left in this chart to be broken. The ones that existed have already corrected. This chart is not trading like QQQ and SPY which are very similar to each other. I am assuming this will go down with the others though, so I will mark short but maybe a bounce very soon. No recommendation I doubt our prior president is enjoying this, but he may be saying "I told you so". I do not think Xiden cares and his group probably sold out a while back.
AMEX:IWMShort
by lauralea
2
IWM: Pivotal ChangeRussell 2000 looks to be on the cusp of breaking down, after a short term distributional channel (following a longer term underperformance). We might get a small bounce back up to the prior support (as backing up action) before continue lower. There is a lack of a volume signature on the bottom of channel indicating no volume absorption like we saw last time (marked in the green box) and this suggests that we will see some acceleration to the downside. The point and figure chart suggests we a price target range of 110-140 signifying an additional 30% drop. This is entirely possible considering the slower growth and further possible war catalysts. While this, might not be the "end" yet - this warrants some portfolio hedging or at least trimming of "high valuation" positions.
AMEX:IWMShort
by quantitativetendies
1
IWM back on Radar for Swing TradeDashed lines mark a few levels on chart. Sometimes zooming out in time helps to really see price trends and patterns. Here you can see price has been consolidating in a rising channel since end of Jan. The more I look at this, the more I think price will eventually break the red line and continue lower. Signs that bearish trend continues: > 20sma (aqua) crosses below 50 (blue) > 100ma (purple) holds as resistance while 20/50 MA's start turning down > RSI returns below 50 > daily close below red line with continuation lower As I write this, price is knocking on 202, which has also been a big level for me on my 30min chart. You can see to the left that price rose steeply, and I think if this channel breaks down then price will go to 188, 180. On the weekly chart price has already turned down from 20MA and is currently sandwiched between 20 and 100 MA's.
AMEX:IWM
by OptionsRising
4
Bullish? Lately, IWM has been somewhat following the broader market, like SPY, DIA and QQQ. In fact, IWM took a harder hit than SPY in the sell off we saw. It sold off below 20% vs SPY that only sold off roughly 13%. SPY is definitely more averse to such dramatic sell-offs. And while SPY flounders with extreme ups and downs in its price action, IWM has remained quite consistent and has been an attractive option for those escaping the huge volatility of SPY. In fact, its created these very consistent channels where you can essentially go long or short and be sure to hit that price target within a week, regardless of the greater circumstances. Ideal for those applying martingale type strategies and those relying on the cyclic nature of the market (see the channels below): In fact, because of this consistency, IWM responds very well to statistical predictions (my personal strategy) and, I admit, I have neglected this stock in favour of DIA. But I find DIA also is becoming slightly less predictable just like SPY, as SPY has started to flail its arms around and desperately clasp to the walls to keep itself afloat. As SPY continues to show dramatic swings in both directions, IWM has remained fairly predictable and stable and it actually looks somewhat bullish. We see a cup and handle pattern forming on the 1 hour chart (see below): Not only that, but we actually have a well defined bull flag that broke out and has maintained its breakout level (see below): This definitely looks bullish on the 1 hour. I admit, its really hard to be bullish in this current market and especially given the current economic and political circumstances of the world. Its also hard to expect IWM to be bullish and SPY not to be. But I don't necessarily think that this bullishness will neither be long term nor sustained. I just think that, in the short term, we could see some bullishness. IWM has fallen dramatically. It is trading in its predicted normal range right now from a mathematical perspective. In any other given circumstance, this would be an ideal opportunity to go long. However, I think that we will see, eventually, this market is going to tank things down into the negative growth. SPY has not even been able to recover to its normal range yet. Its still operating at its inflated range. And until it finally gets the reality check it needs, we can bet that that beast is going to drag everything down eventually. I think its completely unfair that stocks like IWM, QQQ and DIA, which have normalized already, will pay the price for SPY's "pig whale"ness, but yeah, c'est le marché boursier. I should add, that its very clear in the first chart that the lower channel is a pseudo-wedge type bearish flag. Its definitely a bearish sign, but we still have not had a breakout of this channel, YET. Tomorrow, what I have calculated for IWM is the following: High: 203.97, If we do get that bullish conviciton, we could see a breakout to the high 204 range. Anything higher than 204 would be serious bullish conviction. Low: 201 range. If it maintains bullishness, we may only see high 202s. My plan for IWM? - Looking for some short term bullishness. Ideal situation is if this drops down near open to 202 / 201 range for a long entry. - If this hits the ground running, I will likely be looking for rejection of the higher 203 range. Stop out would be above 204 range for a short entry (But this is contingent on what the model predicts based on AM data). Based on technical analysis of these channels as well as probability calculations, ideal entries for a swing short position are over 207/208 price. Ideal entries for a swing long position is 197 or below. Not financial advice, just haven't done a true technical/math based analysis in a while and wanted to share what I was seeing on IWM. Feel free to leave your thoughts and questions below. Thanks for reading!
AMEX:IWM
by Steversteves
19
Rolled (IRA): IWM May 6th 185 Short Put to May 27th 183... for a 1.05 credit. Comments: 50% max roll to the <16 delta strike in the expiry nearest 45 days that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 5.77 (See Post below) plus the 1.05 here for a total of 6.82 versus the 1.86 or so the 183 was paying, so I've realized gains of 4.96 ($496) so far. The May 27th 16 delta is just barely paying 1%; otherwise, I probably would have done a "window dressing roll" from the 185 to the May 27th 175 for a small credit to milk the remaining extrinsic out of the option while reducing risk (since it's farther out-of-the-money) and buying power effect (since it would've been a lower strike).
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines