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IWM trade ideas

IWM ShortThe past two weeks have been marked by significant volatility in global markets, driven by shifting U.S. economic policies, Federal Reserve decisions, and geopolitical developments. Here’s a breakdown of key events impacting the S&P 500 and global indices: --- ### **Past Week (Jan 24–31, 2025)** #### **1. Trump’s Tariff Threats Spark Market Anxiety** - President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (effective Feb 1) and 10% duties on China, triggering a **2.6% drop in the Dow** and **0.5% S&P 500 decline** on Jan 31 . - Investors fear disruptions to supply chains and inflationary pressures, particularly for energy and tech sectors . - **Market reaction**: The dollar surged to a 2-year high, while Treasury yields climbed . Small-caps (Russell 2000 **+1%**) outperformed large-caps due to pro-deregulation hopes . #### **2. Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns** - The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts, keeping the benchmark rate at 4.50–4.75% despite cooling inflation . - **Market impact**: Tech stocks rebounded (Nasdaq **+1.6%**) as investors priced in delayed easing, while Treasury yields rose to 4.57% . #### **3. Tech Sector Volatility** - **Apple** fell **4%** after Jefferies downgraded its stock, citing weak AI prospects . - **Nvidia** surged **9%** post-selloff, reclaiming its position as the world’s most valuable company ($3.39T market cap) . - Crypto stocks rallied on Trump’s SEC crypto task force announcement (Bitcoin **+2.2%** to $106,109) . #### **4. Global Market Reactions** - **Japan’s Nikkei** plunged **8.1%** on Jan 29 amid U.S. recession fears, while European markets (Stoxx 50 **+1.3%**) stabilized . - **Emerging markets**: India’s growth slowed but remained resilient due to domestic demand . --- ### **Previous Week (Jan 17–24, 2025)** #### **1. Post-Inauguration Market Rally** - Trump’s pro-business executive orders drove the **S&P 500 to a record high (5,650)**, with small-caps (Solactive 2000 **+1.5%**) leading gains . - **Sector moves**: Energy stocks fell (**-3.3%**) on oil oversupply fears, while industrials rose on tariff negotiation hopes . #### **2. Jobs Report and Recession Fears** - Weak July hiring data (unemployment **4.3%**) intensified recession worries, causing a **3.7% S&P 500 drop** on Aug 5 . - Goldman Sachs raised recession odds to **25%** and projected three Fed rate cuts by December . #### **3. Global Sell-Off** - **Japan’s Nikkei** crashed **12.4%** (worst drop since 1987), triggering trading halts . - European markets (Stoxx 600 **-3%**) and Bitcoin (**-14%**) mirrored the panic . #### **4. Earnings and Sector Shifts** - **Charles Schwab** jumped **3%** on strong earnings, while **Walgreens** plunged **12%** amid opioid lawsuits . - Solar stocks (**Invesco Solar ETF -2.3%**) tanked after Trump axed green energy subsidies . --- ### **Key Trends to Monitor** | Factor | Impact on S&P 500/Global Markets | |-----------------------|-------------------------------------------| | **Tariff escalation** | Increased volatility in industrials, tech, and energy . | | **Fed policy** | Delayed rate cuts may pressure growth stocks . | | **Tech earnings** | AI-driven companies (Nvidia, Microsoft) remain pivotal . | | **Global growth** | Weakness in Japan/Europe could drag U.S. exports . | --- ### **Outlook for February 2025** - **Upcoming catalysts**: - **Feb 1 tariffs**: Markets will assess retaliation risks from China/EU . - **Q4 earnings**: Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla reports (Feb 2–5) could dictate tech sentiment . - **Fed guidance**: March rate decision remains critical for small-cap and housing sectors . Analysts project **S&P 500 2025 target: 6,500** (Goldman Sachs) but warn of **15% downside risks** if AI growth disappoints or tariffs escalate . Citations: www.cnbc.com www.thestreet.com www.nytimes.com www.newsweek.com www.cnbc.com www.jpmorgan.com www.cbsnews.com www.investopedia.com www.bloomberg.com www.bankrate.com apnews.com www.investopedia.com www.nahb.org www.cnet.com www.reuters.com www.economicsobservatory.com www.bbc.co.uk www.pwc.com www.deccanherald.com seekingalpha.com www.investopedia.com theweek.com www.investopedia.com www.reuters.com finance.yahoo.com money.usnews.com www.bloomberg.com www2.deloitte.com finance.yahoo.com www.cnn.com www.investopedia.com www.forbes.com www.reuters.com www.barrons.com economics.td.com www.investopedia.com www.nytimes.com --- Answer from Perplexity: pplx.ai/share
AMEX:IWMShort
by samisabir212
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 7 20AMEX:IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders for Feb 7 2025 Another attempt to get above the 50 Day moving average here. The 50 day moving average is pointing down so I wouldn’t go long here until it is turned… more likely to trade flat along it for the moment. Just above use we have 230 where we have been seeing resistance. Quite a large trading range today - 1.62% not sure if we will use it all with this momentum but lets see.. 232 is the top of the implied move 225 on the downside
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
IWM at a Critical Level: Will the Momentum Continue?Technical Analysis (TA): 1. Current Price Action: * IWM is trading near $229.91 after a strong upward move, with a daily high of $230.36. * The price is approaching a key resistance zone around $230, aligning with a psychological round number level. 2. Trend Analysis: * The price has been in a clear uptrend since bouncing from the $220.64 support level. * Higher highs and higher lows indicate continued bullish momentum. 3. Indicator Insights: * MACD: Positive histogram values suggest bullish momentum, though the lines are starting to converge. * Stoch RSI: Overbought at 97.57, signaling caution as a pullback could be imminent. 4. Volume: * Increasing volume supports the recent upward move, validating the strength of the breakout. Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance: * $230.36: Current high, immediate resistance. * $235: Strong resistance, aligned with GEX Call Wall. * Support: * $226: Nearest support, significant from previous consolidation. * $220.64: Critical support, aligned with highest negative NETGEX. GEX Analysis: 1. Gamma Exposure (GEX): * Call Wall: Positioned at $235, indicating a strong resistance level where market makers may hedge. * Put Wall: Positioned at $220, acting as key support. 2. IVR and Options Sentiment: * IVR: 15.5, indicating relatively low implied volatility. * Put/Call Ratio: 14.2% puts, showcasing a predominantly bullish sentiment. Trade Scenarios: 1. Bullish: * If IWM breaks above $230.36 with strong volume, it could target $235. * Entry: Above $230.50. * Target: $235. * Stop-Loss: $228.50. 2. Bearish: * If IWM faces rejection at $230, it could retest $226 or lower. * Entry: Below $228.50. * Target: $226. * Stop-Loss: $231. Actionable Suggestion: * Watch for price action confirmation at $230. Momentum traders could look for breakouts, while mean reversion traders might wait for pullbacks. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk carefully.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 4 25CRITICAL LEVEL - for the 35EMA and the 30 min 200MA - It can bounce here and we remain bullish - or we bring the 35EMA under the 30min 200 and its bear time... IWM right now is seeing a little bit of resistance around the 225 level which is so funny to me how often we see that level. We’re at the 30min 200 MA and the 35 EMA just above us and that is a critical level if we are going to stay bullish, then we will bounce here and if not, the 35 EMA will come underneath the 30min 200 MA. this is a big level here. We also have that down gap from yesterday that we are currently right at and seeing a bit of resistance. The top of the expected move is at 228 today and that is just underneath the 50 day moving average and then tomorrow’s top of the expected move is 229 which is just above the 50DMA To the downside, we still have a little bit of that island gap open. We closed about half of it out yesterday and the other half is down there near the bottom of the implied move at 220 and 219.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
IwmMajor ascending broadening wedge here .. this is a huge Bearish pattern that I think will take IWM back to 198 and possibly 165. The question is , do we tag upper boundary around 250 before it happens? Let's look closer at the last 2month price action... Bulls will say it's a pennant that will push IWM to 250 Bears see a bear flag What do I see ? 226.50 is tough resistance.. I think price will reverse from there and close 219.70 gap close... 226.50 is tough horizontal resistance and also weekly 20sma Below 219.00 and we head back to 215 support. Below 215.00 and ascending wedge is activated and we are heading to 198.00 Strong long only over 232.00 226-232. Is chop and trap area .. Wether IWM makes a new high or not this pattern to 160-190 will play out this year This is a zoomed out picture of the weekly.. only broke it once in the fall of 2020 crazy IPO run
AMEX:IWM
by ContraryTrader
7
$IWM Trading Range for Feb 3 2025IWM dropped right into the island gap at open, which was near 221 which is the bottom of a one standard deviation move off of last Friday’s close. So I think this is where we’re going to see bottom on the day that I’m not calling bottom for a larger downturn but for the day, yes a possible move back up to one hour to average which as you can see is still pointing down and we did drop back underneath it. So 221 is where I think we’ll see bottom of the day.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
IWM at a Pivotal Level: Insights for Swing and Option TradersTechnical Analysis: * Trend Overview: IWM shows signs of consolidation after a rejection from the $230 resistance level, creating a descending pattern. * Indicators: * MACD: Bearish momentum is building as the histogram dips further below the zero line. * Stoch RSI: Oversold conditions with potential for a short-term bounce. * Key Levels: * Resistance: $230, $235 (critical levels for bulls to break). * Support: $224.50, $222 (zones where buyers could step in). Options GEX Analysis: * Gamma Resistance: * $230: High positive gamma resistance suggests strong selling pressure above this level. * $235: Critical for any breakout potential. * Put Walls: * $225: High net negative gamma—break below this may accelerate downside moves. * $220-$215: Key zones for bearish targets and gamma support. Trade Setups: * Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $227. * Target: $230-$235. * Stop-Loss: Below $225. * Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $224.50. * Target: $222-$220. * Stop-Loss: Above $227. Outlook: The current price action aligns with a cautious stance as IWM hovers near the lower end of its consolidation channel. Gamma data supports a bearish bias unless bulls reclaim key resistance zones. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research and manage risk carefully.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersYesterday we closed underneath the 35 EMA right now so far where futures are at they are up .91% that would take us just underneath the 50 day moving average with the top of the implied move at 230 231 for tomorrow. Underneath us, we have the four hour two under moving average and 225. You could see that both of those levels did catch us underneath that the 30 minute and the one hour to under moving average that is a bearish signal so even though futures are up right now, I think we’re gonna see that downward and a continuation down the downward channel.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Today and TomorrowSo we are just underneath 35 EMA if we manage to get above it 50 day moving average will be the target and if we get above that 230 on the day. 231 on tomorrow’s contract. Would be looking at 230 231 bear calls spreads if we do get over the 50 day. Underneath us, we have that downward facing one hour 200 moving average we also have the four hour two under average and 225 which has held us up so far this week. 223 is the bottom of the move and for tomorrow it’s 222. Underneath that we do have an island gap which we still need to fill, but it’s not in today’s trading range and , I wouldn’t call that a target just yet
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
IWM Technical Analysis and GEX Insights (1-Hour Timeframe)Current Overview * Price: IWM is trading at 226.91, showing consolidation within a narrow range. * Trend: The price remains range-bound, testing both support and resistance levels. * Market Note: Be cautious of potential gaps or momentum shifts at the market open. The current analysis may require adjustments once trading begins. Feel free to reach out for updates post-open. Technical Analysis 1. Key Levels: * Support: * 225.21: Immediate support level, critical for short-term stability. * 220.00: Major support, aligning with high negative gamma exposure. * 215.00: Key put wall and significant downside support. * Resistance: * 229.63: Immediate resistance, likely to be tested with bullish momentum. * 230.94: Key level, marking the upper trendline and strong resistance. * 235.00: A potential breakout target if momentum strengthens. 2. Momentum Indicators: * MACD: Showing mild bullish divergence but still neutral. * Stochastic RSI: High, indicating potential overbought conditions in the short term. 3. Volume: * Volume remains moderate, reflecting cautious market sentiment in the range. 4. Trendlines: * The downward-sloping trendline above 229.63 acts as a dynamic resistance level. GEX (Gamma Exposure) Insights 1. Gamma Walls: * Call Walls: * 230.94: Significant resistance with high positive gamma exposure. * 235.00: Next major resistance level for a breakout scenario. * Put Walls: * 220.00: Strong support aligned with significant negative gamma. * 215.00: Critical downside level to watch for bearish continuation. 2. IVR and Options Flow: * IVR: 16.3, indicating relatively low implied volatility. * Calls vs. Puts: Calls account for only 11%, showing neutral to bearish sentiment. * GEX Direction: Leaning neutral, with slight bearish undertones. Market Direction Scenarios 1. Bullish: * A breakout above 229.63 could push prices toward 230.94 and possibly 235.00 with strong momentum. 2. Bearish: * Failure to hold 225.21 may lead to a test of 220.00 and lower levels near 215.00. Key Notes * Price action may change drastically at the market open, potentially creating gaps or trend shifts. Keep a close eye on premarket data and initial moves after the bell. * If you’d like updated levels and insights following the open, feel free to message me directly.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
Russell 2000 $IWM Trending UP versus Nasdaq $QQQ Here is a ratio chart of the Russell 2000 Index etf called AMEX:IWM and the Nasdaq Composite Index etf called $QQQ. The NASDAQ:QQQ returns over the past 7+ years have been extraordinary while the AMEX:IWM has been stagnant at best and hasn't beaten inflation. That ratio of performance has just turned in a way that suggests the AMEX:IWM will outperform the NASDAQ:QQQ for the next 11 weeks to the tune of 10%. The ratio has already moved up last week by 4% of the 10%, so there is only another 6% to go for this signal. If there are any pullbacks of 1%-2%, those would be lower risk entries as the distance to the "stop" level at 0.45 vs 0.4704 last would be less. The target is 0.51 vs 0.4704 last. So follow this ratio for the next 10 weeks and see if even more relative outperformance happens. Over the next few years, it is possible for AMEX:IWM to do 50% better than $QQQ. We would need lower oil prices and lower interest rates and some rational pricing in the big tech names that are over $10 trillion dollars now for 3 companies: NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT and $AAPL.
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
1
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersIWM returned to center pretty quickly here and we are back above the 35 EMA, even though we dropped underneath it at open AND WE DO HAVE THE 50 DAY MOVING ABOVE US HOWEVER STUPID WILLIE HAS A RED SIGNAL LINE AND WE HAVE A DOWNWARD FACING 1hr 200MA underneath us with the four hour 200 removing average and the 30 minute moving average those levels could draw us in with a corrective move here. I don’t know why I had all cops up there, but I’m gonna leave it cause I’m in hurry. I will review all of these levels on tonight‘s video.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$IWM Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Today & MondayToday’s expected move in IW is between 227 and 232 which is a 1.19% move. We are sitting right at the 35 EMA, which has been a support level however we do have a downward facing one hour to average that we need to meet up with and turn back around, that is a really real target and that four hour moving average is there well they meet up around 225 so 225 could be a really great support level. We also have the 30 minute moving average underneath that and just the fact that it is underneath those two levels is a bar signal and above us. We do have the 50 day moving average, which we did see as resistance on Tuesday Wednesday.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading