JNK trade ideas
JNK – High Yield Bond ETFOne of the more important charts out there.
The JNK etf shows the investor sentiment based on the interest in high-yield debt. Considering the expectation for the number of defaults to increase, the fact this is not selling off and the spread looking bottom could possibly be a confirmation of the strength in equities.
Will be interesting to see if JNK can sustains a rally to close out the year.
High-yield spreads
High-yield effective yield:
Good news for stocks, bonds are bottoming $JNKAMEX:JNK is an ETF that tracks rated high-yield bonds or "junk bonds". These are the bonds rated Ba1 & BB+ by Moody's Investors Service, Inc., & Fitch Inc. respectively.
The bullish divergence with the ROC is pointing out that a bottom is near.
Bonds bottoming is a good sign for the market and breakout to the upside should confirm a healthy uptrend for stocks.
This ETF has a high correlation with the AMEX:SPY ; 0.7021 for the last 3 years, so, let's wait and see.
JNK H&S measured move to 85?It looks like the bond market is making lower lows, and China HSI as well. These are usually leading indicators telling us that risk on assets will also make lower lows.
But I believe the end is near, as you can see on the chart. This could also be a max pain fakeout as we are back testing the downtrend line. So starting to dollar cost average into some risk on assets and metal miners in the next few days/weeks is probably a good idea.
Good luck guys
No recessionJNK/TLT explodes. In my opinion this only can be if no recession is seen in the near future.
It could also mean: TLT falls extremly fast because FED and Japan/China sell US T-Bonds at the same time in amounts which the market cannot handle at all.
The cracks in the system became obvious...
JNKTLT A bond ratio that could give a perspective on stocksThis is the ratio of High Yield Bond ETF to the 20Y T BOND. Not a ratio seen a lot but on the 1M time-frame it provides some perspective to the periods of high volatility/ correction on stocks. The blue trend-line is the Dow Jones (DJI) index (stocks). As you see, every time the JNKTLT ratio hit its Lower Highs trend-line, stocks have turned sideways at best, undergoing a volatility phase.
Last month, the ratio closed above that line for the first time in history. Even though we are on a sharp correction since the start of the year, does that break-out mean that it enters a new bullish trend and completely different pattern? And if so, could it indicate that the correction is about to take a stop? What do you think?
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