JNUG trade ideas
Jnug to Gold "bottom was on target, now where"So we bottomed at $11.37. I was thinking somewhere between the $11.50 - $11.30 range. So that worked out well. But it appears to me that we only completed wave three down and still have to do wave 4 and 5. So wave 4 should top a little over the $14 dollar mark before dropping to a much lower low...(too early to call but maybe in the mid $8 range).
JNUG short term swingsJNUG has now established a reactionary trading channel on 15 time frame within its larger daily channel. I would expect a test of 14.90 range to be a given but it may congest prices to mimic Feb 12th & 13th eventually testing the $15 area before making a move either way
An upside break of channel line b would lead to test of 14.90-$15, line a, and an eventual run to upper channel 1. $15 was fairly strong support s may need force or time to get through it if it does. One could tighten stops , take partial profits at that point but with the break down of larger daily channel and high volume support back into it, prices could eventually run to upper daily channel (near $22) but trailing stops would be required.
A downside break of channel c would likely lead to channel 2 since very little support between here and there, but a test of line 2 would be safe swing entry with easy stops, even if just for back test of breakdown. Shakeouts are always a possibility and global news disrupts gold pricing could cause false moves either way so being diligent about factors, and honoring stops is a must.
Either scenario, channel lines should act as critical pivot points for buys and sells.
One could take long swing trade on retest of line c with reversal confirmation and tight stops. Note : A retest of channel line b with a denial and return to channel line C and then a lower high, should be taken as a warning for longs.
One could enter DUST on breakdown of channel c, again with stops.
Confirmation for conservative trades and channel lines touches for aggressive trades. Always honor stops.
This is short term trade scenario and swing chart and I use Gold as proxy for all entries and exits.
* This is not investment advice , only possible scenarios.
Jnug to Gold "Down"So it appears that gold is finally rolling over. Jnug is already responding. On this 4 hour (and you can check the smaller time frames) it appears that this 1st wave down is complete. You can count 5 small waves down. Don't be surprised if we get a large 61.8% to 78% Fib Pop tomorrow for wave 2. Then I would absolutely be in JDST. It is hard to pick a bottom for this move so I gave it a try with the FIB tool. If today is the end of wave one, and if we only do the 61.8% retracement up, then wave 3 should be a little longer than wave 1, and then there is wave 4 32% retracement to set up wave 5. That yellow oval is not out of the question. This market has been very tricky.
Jnug to Gold "I think I fixed my cycles"A Little while back I was using cycles to help me with great accuracy, determine when to get in and out of both Jnug and JDST. Then it appeared to have gotton a little wishy washy. Well I think I got it back. If I am correct, we should continue to drop(not in a straight line) in Jnug until around the 18th or 19th. Coincidently the 19th is the day, congress votes on the budget for the year. I do not think they will pass it the first time through with all the border and DACA issues involved. I think gold will have completed its half cycle low about that time and Jnug should also reverse with gold. At this point gold has not really given a decent half cycle pullback yet. So if that starts this week, then Jnug will drop pretty well. I drew what I believe is a channel for Jnug. Lets see if that works. There is a good chance that Jnug drops to at least the 50 DMA and possibly a little lower during that last day or two of that half cycle. The 19th happens to be a Wednesday, which is the start of the next COT report. I cant tell you how hard gold and Jnug will run after that so we will wait and see. As you can also see...there is a pretty good consistency with the red half moon cycles. About 3/4 of the way through (pink vertical line) that half moon, Jnug will drop pretty hard as that also coincides with gold DCL (black Triangle). Its not perfect but timing the market is never perfect.
JNUG Pullback Buy OpportunityJNUG may be in a weekly downtrend, but there is a promising bullish buying opportunity today. We saw the daily 100 EMA act as resistance in October, but in late December,JNUG breached both the 50 EMA and the 100 EMA without a significant pullback. It printed a bearish tweezer top last week, leading to a failed re-test of the 100 EMA in after hours trading last night. Today, we saw the 50 EMA act as support as the Stochastics tested previous resistance. This is a buy signal. A close over the 100 EMA could push us over the tweezer top, likely resulting in a true reversal in the trend. Watch the Weekly 50 EMA for a 1st target on a swing trade. close below the weekly 9 EMA today (16.45) likely means we return to lower support.
JNUG poised to almost double shortlyJNUG completed an a,b,c,d,e correction before blasting higher with a wave 1 impulse move over the last few weeks. Short consolidation will form wave 2 correction before blasting higher again to around $30. Don't get spooked out of this mild correction. Blast forward and higher imminent IMO.