Time for a comebackLooking for a push back into the 20s long from 16.08 with support and stop loss at 15.10
JNUG trade ideas
JNUG can go either wayThis is JNUG recently on the 15 minute. The blue lines are the current trend it has followed for a couple days. I have little faith in this trend. When my red SMA line turns green, it might be worth jumping in on a day trade, but this has been one of the hardest funds for me to find trends. Lot's of games get played with this ticker symbol.
Here is the one minute with the current trend. I'm going to wait for a good entry.
Jnug almost at the dipMy count give me no more than 5 days before reversal. I think that by Thurdays/Friday this should start waling north again.
Jnug to Gold "looks like its time to go long for a bit"I was too focused and zoomed in on my little wedge to see the bigger picture. I think what just happened is a larger zig zag B wave just played out. I measured the drop from the 1st part of the B wave and as you can see(purple price measurement), this latest drop is just about a perfect measurement. I think we are done now. I am expecting Jnug to start the C wave up. I am expecting Jnug to be back at $7 by Friday. We are also stretched far from the 10 and 20 DMA which never lasts very long. We are clearly in the large wedge as of today. But I did not think it would happen this way. I just did not see it. Oh well, I did not sell my Jnug today because I know it will go back up very soon. I will still make a good profit. As you can also see, I measured the A wave up (green price measurement) and we should reach the top of the blue wedge line in a couple weeks. There is also a big bullish divergence on the RSI 5 so I am holding.
Jnug to Gold "Difficult Read ahead"I have had a difficult time figuring out what to discuss. NOTE** None of what I say below will matter if there is a war with North Korea in the next week because gold will shoot through the roof. But I have a feeling that Trump worked out a deal with China and dough boy will back down. That being said, I do believe that the cycle for Jnug has shifted....but trying to guess when it bottoms and starts new is a guess. So I will go for it. With the huge gap down yesterday and the strong close below both the 10 and 20 DMA, I would suspect that more down side is ahead for Monday and Tuesday. attention has to be given to the gap we just made. But if we continue down, AND touch the trend line, I would probably call that the cycle end for Jnug. I have already shifted the cycle indicators at the bottom to reflect this theory and moved the pink vertical line over as well. As you can see, I left the shaded green area in its original place as a reference of the old cycle end area. As you can also see, I do not expect a big pop in Jnug. The BBands are closing tighter and tighter and I think it will continue for a little while longer. So I expect more chop for a couple more weeks. Part of the reason I am leaning this way is that, .....I really do not think spot gold is going to break out of that long term downtrend line. (I will post the gold chart later). Not to mention, gold is starting to get to that point in time when it too should start cycling down. Not just for a daily cycle low but also for an Intermediate cycle low. An estimation for spot gold to bottom on its ICL is late May to Early June. Which means that it usually starts to turn down approximately 1 month ahead of that date. So I think that spot gold will reach the top of the downtrend line next week and then move down to sideways, just underneath it (which everyone will call a bull flag). Is it a bull flag? Well it will look like one but no one will be paying attention to the cycles. Not all bull flags play out. SO I am estimating that we start to drop with gold around the May 8th date. That is also about the time that the 50 DMA should be crossing down across the 100 DMA for Jnug. (which is also a very narrow point in the wedge). If spot gold does start to tank for its ICL, then it should drag Jnug down with it. That is the reason I have the arrows on the Jnug chart moving down in May. And of course, lets not forget the short, medium and longer term hidden bearish divergences on the RSI 5. I think that should be respected, a lot. The short term bullish divergence played out last week and there could be another medium one that forms if Jnug falls further and stops at the trend line. I extended the bullish divergence line to give you an idea.
Ill post my gold chart next.
Swing Trader StrategyHow many times have you developed a well justified trading plan that you knew would be successful if you implemented it and stuck to your plan, only to have it killed in its tracks when emotions took over and you started to break the trading rules that you had set?
I have been guilty of that transgression and it has cost me dearly at times, so I have decided to develop a swing trading strategy that systematically prompts me with long / short trade recommendations that will provide more discipline for my trades.
This model uses 5 key indicators: The Parabolic SAR, the 5 Day SMA, the 10 Day SMA, the 10 Day Linear Regression Curve, and the 15 Day Linear Regression Curve. Combined together they provide a very good visual representation of the key days for Long/Short trade entry. The key indicator for triggering the trade is when the 2 Linear Regression Curves cross over. The model is specifically designed for swing trading back and forth between 3X leveraged funds such as JNUG and JSDT, that exhibit high volatility with extreme price swings.
The unique thing about this model is a feature that I added to set a starting date that shows trades from that day going forward. A nice feature that allowed me to back test my strategy for a limited time frame as opposed to the Trading View default which covers every tick on the chart.
The model also allows me to set set Risk Management parameters such as starting capital, profit targets, and stop limits to automatically trigger trade exits when goals are reached or trades reverse unexpectedly.
Having explained the mechanics of the model, I have posted the above screenshot, which is a sample backtest starting on December 15, 2016. The Starting Capital was set to $5000, Profit Target per trade was set to $5000, and Stop Limit was set to $500. The back tested results as of March 21 shows an 80% profitability on 5 trades....
I plan to start using this model over the coming months to manage my swing trades in JNUG/JDST, and have reset my start date for March 1st.
My first position opened was on March 10 (Long JNUG), so stay tuned for periodic updates regarding its success…...
Jnug to gold 4/07, still going according to planI was happy to see that wave 5 completed today. I was also unhappy that it did not complete yesterday like I was hoping. (I cant predict everything perfectly but only hope to get real close). What we saw this morning was the gap up for Jnug, a little more upside movement to complete wave 5, and then the start of our move down. The huge down move to 6.43 was wave 1 down, the pull back until close is wave 2. Wave 2 may continue a little while on Monday. Then wave 3 should occur on Monday and we should complete the 5 waves down by Tuesday. If by Tuesday, we are not quite down to the bottom of the wedge (approx. $6.10 - 6.08) then we might briefly drop on early Wednesday morning only to reverse hard and shoot up.
So I bought JDST today when Jnug was at the 7.26 range. I will sell my jdst when jnug drops to the low $6 range and immediately buy Jnug again for the new cycle pop.
I bet very few people had the balls to buy JDST or Dust after what happened last night and the gap up this morning. I saw everyone super bullish and calling for at least $8 for Jnug. I wonder what they are thinking right now after dropping so hard. Oh wait, I know what they are thinking......MANIPULATION!!! Ha Not.
I followed my cycle analysis and wave count and it worked like it was supposed to. (YES supposed to). Hard to accept for many. It almost seems as if all the news and other BS is irrelevant unless it supports/helps the pattern complete itself. That being said, I know that I will not always figure out the correct pattern or wave count. But I am on a 3 month roll.
Just a heads up *** Another thing to note that I have NOT figured out yet. The cycles shift from time to time. If you were to look at my cycles on the bottom part of my chart, and go back to middle of summer 2016, you will see that the current cycles do not work. I have not figured out what caused the shift and hopefully I see it when it happens next time. If I miss it then that could be a painful period of time.
By the way, I have an alternative red arrow drawn for the cycle drop in the middle of May. The reason I put that there is that during that point in time (end of cycle drop), spot gold should also be in its cycle drop. Like in February, when/if these two things correlate, the moves are very big. GL
Jnug to Gold 3/31/17There is really nothing to update this weekend that I see. For once I was bummed that price settled in the blue box. The price target for Today (Friday) was approximate 6.50 and if you include afterhours, then we closed at 6.53. I would have like to have seen it close at near its high. But oh well. I am still confident that Jnug will continue to go up for most of next week. However, special attention will be paid to when I am planning on selling in order to buy in to JDST for the end of cycle drop. I feel that Tuesday the 11th will be the last day of the cycle. (I know that is a tough call). So if I want to get into JDST for the drop then I have to sell my jnug early enough for that 3 day settled funds rule to not bite me in the butt. So assuming I am correct, I would have to sell my Jnug by next Thursday in order to not get hurt holding JDST with the new cycle pop. So that's it, nothing has changed since my last few posts. Everything looks pretty darn good. GL
JNUG to $13 by the end of april.Look, the S&P500 is going to be retracing back down, market sentiment for the end of Q1 put us at a high that has not been seen with stocks since the recession. Q2 is calling for a retrace, and market sentiment shows that gold is rising. It's time to hop in on JNUG and HOLD it. Stop worrying about daily fluctuations, think about the big picture. I am hoping that confirmation will be the 8 and 21 EMA crossing. Price holding trend line - UP.
JNUG - time for new rally?Details on chart, refer to DXY and XAUUSD as well.
Trump lost health bill, people loosing faith - Dollar down, Gold up.
Technical: we're in a beautiful wedge here - almost identical to early January
My target 7.20 - 7.5 for tomorrow - possible breakout in the next days.
Jnug to Gold "BBands are tightening, big move in two weeks"Jnug Daily Chart
The price action today was right in my little blue box so that was just about perfect. We retested the 10 DMA and closed below the 20 DMA. We still have two more days for the COT report (which cuts off on Tuesday), so I can easily see Jnug drop to the lower pink line. But I gave two ideas. The first pink line is an exact measurement of the first part of this zig zag move down. If that is all we get then I could see Jnug reaching the $7.90's (100 DMA) by the end of next week. But it really isn't too much at all to see Jnug fall to the lower pink line in the next two days. At that point I would be looking for Jnug to rally to that resistance zone that I highlighted and possibly topping out at the $7.75 range. That would be about a 34-35% move. Either way, I would sell Jnug and immediately buy JDST because as you can see, the cycle will be coming to an end around April 10th. So that means Jnug should drop that last week. The BBands should be nice and tight at that point, indicating a big move is about to commence. Interesting how those BBands are coming together right when the cycle ends and a new one begins. This should break Jnug out of the orange wedge and into the larger wedge. I think we will get a really big move at that point but it should only last 1 to 1 1/2 weeks. The reason why I say that is because the daily cycle for spot gold should end sometime in middle May. So I am expecting spot gold to have rolled over by then if it doesn't already start this next two weeks. Oh and another thing to point out. If you have not noticed, the 50 DMA has started to turn down and is really not that far away from the 100 DMA. If they cross, look out below. I am going to take a guess that they cross in early May.
I left my indicator as neutral because I do think we will drop for only two days and then run. GL everyone. lets hope I am correct again.
03-18 JNUG Chart (by Got Goldies)I don't really buy these kind of ETF but I see people trying to play them. I don't even know if these ETF can be charted.
Jnug to Gold "Everything is moving according to plan"Jnug Daily Chart
Well that move down this morning hit my target perfectly and bounced. I am wondering, however, will it drop just a tad bit more to touch or even intraday overshoot the 10DMA. We did not hit it yet. It turned down as price dropped today. And the 20 DMA is screeming downward. I feel we will be squeezed in between the 10DMA and 20DMA for next week. I think that early the following week, jnug will breakout of that sqeeuzed zone and move to the upside for a jnug Wave c move.
As you people may have noticed, jnug and Gold are not moving up as powerfully as the last two hikes. This move is not finished yet and I may be speaking too soon but I am getting that sense. It is almost as if the hikes are losing steam. However, I am still counting on a C wave move up to the $9.63 range and possibly only making there on one day with a daily close below the 50 DMA. As you can see, I have attempted to project the possible path for the 50 DMA and it is right below that target area.
Otherwise there is really not much to talk about. Everything is moving according to plan as I saw it. I post my gold chart next. And by the way, gold closed below the 20 DMA. No Juice? hmmmm?
Oversold and crawledJNUG has a channel between 5.8/6.30-40. It will fluctutate between that spectrum, maybe for a couple of days, and the BOOM! ... up we go again.
