Jnug to Gold "week of the Fed" 3/11/17I almost didn't do a analysis this weekend because it seems pretty obvious to me now that Jnug is going up for the short term. Just look at the price action last week. Gold was falling but clearly Jnug was flat. I knew that it wanted to go up and towards the end of Friday afternoon, once spot gold turned around, Jnug flew. So what's next for Jnug? I think I will show two scenarios. A conservative one and a wishful thinking one that could happen as well. So the blue arrows are the conservative path that I think is very possible. As you can see, the black 10DMA is just above the closing price. And we are just below a notable resistance area (blue line $6.36). So it is very possible that Jnug drops a little to retest the breakout level into FOMC before moving higher. But then I look at spot gold, and I see a reversal candlestick that bounced off a downtrend line and think that if spot gold continues up even a little bit, and the broader markets also continues up, then we might just gap up, at least over the 10 DMA and possibly over the $6.36 area and fly up for two days to the very strong $7.75 area before slightly consolidating for a few days. Then up again.
I keep hearing everyone talking about the dollar in a head and shoulders pattern. Maybe they are correct. But the Yen doesn't look that way at all. In about two weeks we should get an idea (bearish or bullish) of where the intermediate trend is going to be headed. Gold usually rallies hard immediately after a rate hike... just like it did in December through February 2015/16 and also just like it did this December through Feb. So if gold does not rally hard...AND break out of the wedge, then that should sound the alarm bells because gold may actually make a lower low. Much lower. If gold is going to make a lower low, then this year would be its absolute bottom.
Up next my spot gold chart
