JNUG trade ideas
Jnug to Gold Rate Hike ?? Feb 1stSo typically the miners cycle would have ended today....and maybe it did. But like I said in a earlier post, I think we may stretch this cycle out until Feb 1st. If we do have a rate hike then I am expecting a similar movement down for that day and then a sharp rise the next few days. It also appears that we may be making a zig zag pattern which started zigging today. So while I think we could go up more, I just don't think it will be a big move up. Maybe up to the 10 DMA or at least touch the $8.74 resistance line before closing at the 10DMA. In other words, we should trade sideways for the most part, on Monday and Tuesday. Then IF a rate hike does happen, it would seem highly likely that we drop to touch the 50 DMA which as you can see would also be right at about the trend line at approx. $7. And then yes, a bounce to retest the recent highs.
At that point, everyone and I mean everyone is going to say (just like they have been saying) that we are going to break out and go to the moon. If that is the case then we should see a break out above that big blue down trending resistance line. Yes it can happen, but no I do not think it will yet. My chart speaks for itself for what I think will happen. I still feel that the 14.5 month cycle that I wrote about a couple weeks ago is in play. And while that is almost never perfectly 14.5 months, for the purpose of this chart, 14.5 months ends at the same time that spot gold is suppose to end its daily cycle (end of Feb/ beginning of March). A coincidence that really should not be ignored.
I would like to bring up a scenario that I think could play out. Rate hike on the 1st. A swift 3 - 4 days market sell off (see my SP500 chart) which would coincide with Jnug making a strong pop. Then, the broader market would start its 5th a final wave higher until the May rate hike which would draw money out of gold and miners. And analysts will be writing about how gold is weak because the market is strong so no one needs a safe haven..ect, ect. And lets not forget about the YEN. I will post my Yen chart to show you the move it started a few days ago. the Yen appears to also be starting its 5th wave. And currently the Yen is much more inversely correlated to gold than the dollar is to gold.
jnug hidden bearish divergenceshere is jnug with a long hidden bearish divergence and a small bullish divergence. I am guessing on the price movement but this is how it could play out towards the end of this cycle to the beginning of the next. Remember that miners and jnug do not perfectly follow Gold. Just look at jnug or GDX or whatever through the month of November and compare it to gold.
Jnug to GoldI am following my cycle charts. I believe that in the cycles and that Jnug will end lower than we are at this point today. I am still holding short from last week. I was hoping for a bigger drop but I am not quite sure how much of a drop we can get. Will it be big like after the election. I am leaning that way. Especially with everyone saying that Gold is going to skyrocket starting with the inauguration. Seems a little inconsistent if you ask me. Although we could possibly shoot up for a few hours just like the election night. I hope not, that would make me sick. I am just not sure, sorry.
JNUG Breaking the Bull FlagThis is a graphic illustration of my trading models that are based on moving average trends and regression to the mean. It is a simplistic illustration on my mathematical models, but it shows how I highlight entry and exit points based on four key indicators. The Least Square Moving Average is my key sentiment indicator on the hourly chart.
My daily model tracks 5/10 day moving averages and calculates the slope of each MA. I use the slope to give me a feel for the strength of the uptrend and downtrends and I also calculate the percent of the price deviations above and below the moving averages.
I also have a second weekly model that looks for end of week price changes that exceed 2 standards deviations above or below the trend. When 2 sigma changes happen, it indicates extreme bullish/bearish sentiment and I usually enter and exit my positions then I see 2 sigma changes.
Currently, we appear to be nearing the end of a consolidation period that started January 5th and will probably break up/down by January 20th.
My expectation is a bullish move upward for 5-10 days after the breakout.
Cup and handleNeed to break 7-7.20 area, but if we do, targets of 8-8.60 and 10-10.5
Invalidate if break below 5.50
JNUG Cup and Handle on 60min ChartLooks like a cup and handle might be forming on the 60min chart of JNUG. Notice the top of the cup being 7.00. The bottom of the cup formed at 4.00. I expect that the handle will bottom out soon at 5.50 (1/2 the depth of the cup) before heading upwards to a possible breakout around 7.
I'd look for an entry at 5.50 if XAUUSD shows some strength.
JNUG false promise.MACD below zero, zero is going to act as resistance. Furthermore, ADX shows strong trend in negative price movement. Lastly, 50MA is below 200MA and to make matters worse JNUG is trading below 200MA. False promises lie ahead for tomorrow.
Jnug to Gold "cup and Handle"?Just thought I would post this. Today Jnug stopped at exactly the high from a few sessions ago. And there is a little gap below. I am wondering if this will turn out to be a cup and handle formation with Jnug pulling back for the next couple days or so. At least to fill the gap down to $4.31.
GL
Jnug to GoldDaily Chart
I think that we possibly bottomed (for the short term) for Jnug on the 20th. That would be a little over 30 days to end another left translated cycle. I think we could possibly get close to retesting the $3.80 level before starting a little two week pop. Evan though this does not look like a big move on the chart, It is actually quite a bit. IF we were to move from $3.80 to $6 then obviously that's a significant percentage. However, the first big resistance is at approximately the $5.27ish range. As you can see, we gapped down through that level. So once we get there, I think it would be a good idea to look at buying volume to see if it is subsiding at that point, just like selling volume has been subsiding. I am going to wait to see how this moves on Friday and possibly buy in on Friday or the beginning of next week.
Is this a real possibility?Posting, as a more of a question, but the FOMC looks like it is setting up to be short with GOLD dropping from 1163 to 1160 in the last 45 minutes.
Jnug to Gold Italy Vote WeekendDaily Chart
I think that that was a great sign on Friday, Jnug up strong even in the wake of multiple days of great economic data. We broke out of the wedge and should move up with the Italy vote. But I think we will only reach around the $8.90 range before a little pullback. Then up hard to the second oval. At the end of the week or over next weekend we might hear a ruling from the British Supreme court about there decision for the Brexit. There are some other significant events that will also be coinciding with the later part of the week into early next week. Should help move gold and Jnug up. The 50 DMA (BLUE) should meet my price target about that time. And we should peek just above it.
Hopefully we have a good couple of weeks.
Jnug to Gold Last week of November 20164 Hour Chart
Time for a bounce yet? I think yes. But nothing too fabulous. The oscillators need to cool off because the next drop will be big. We are way oversold with a lot of bullish divergences. I think we arein the middle or our B pattern and the Fed hike should mark the beginning of the downward C. I also think that the December 4th Italy vote cold give us a little pop but nothing like Brexit. I measured the drop for a with a purple line. (look at the chart. I copied it and then moved it to where I think our possible high for Jnug could reach (around $11.30), and then used the purple line to measure a possible C move. And as you can see, it was quite a fit right down to where I think a bottom will reach this year or early next year.
Short and sweet this time. GL
