JNUG trade ideas
jnug to gold4 hours chart
Lets start with what I got right. Non-farm payrolls was a miss and unemployment ticked up to 5% and as a result of this poor data, yes we gapped up at the open. I was saying between $1 and 1.50 and it was $1.21. But then down she went. So what went wrong? Yes its manipulation. Just about any other time of the year when we get numbers like this, this should have skyrocketed. Not a damn thing we can do about it except wait it out and look ahead. I looked up what happened on June 3rd to create such a huge run in Gold and Jnug. It was bad non-farm job numbers. And look at how it ran.
So I am looking ahead to Monday of course. But mainly because I am kind of curious and excited to see what China does after having to watch gold get artificially pushed down soooo much. Yes I still think this goes up but I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up too much, So I will not try to call a top. I still think we are in the black broken line channel for now. Hopefully we trade back to the top of it before turning back down. If we get close to that, I for one am selling Jnug and buying Dust.
If you are able to check out the volume, you will see that volume was huge. This is a very good sign. I feel like with a suppressed price movement and a huge volume spike, that the catapult has been pulled back as far as it can go, all we need is someone to release the pin. Maybe China.
So as you can see from my chart, I am thinking maybe 1 ½ to 2 weeks more for Jnug before it turns down again. Left translated means this could go down lower, but I am not sure it is ready to break that neck line, if in fact this is going to be a H&S pattern. SO if it does go lower, then the H&S if probably off the table.
If anyone has any info that could be helpful then please feel free to add it. I am curious to hear what that “chartfreak” guy has to say from here on out.
Simply ExtremeNear 3 standard deviations on the 20 day Bollinger Band, in a 10.11. Will Wait for it to top out at the other end in a few weeks
Jnug to Gold2 hours chart
As my data changes, I will update posts and charts as early as possible.
Is anyone not confident that we go up?
I believe we had our bottom today and a nice reversal. Gold should follow soon. I believe that we are going to get some economic data in our favor either tomorrow, but most likely Friday, that will launch this thing. I am looking at reaching $16 by Friday. That would affectively close that gap that was made yesterday and put us back into the blue wedge. It also looks like we may stay inside the blue wedge for the next 2 - 3 weeks until we break down hard again. But I digress. Back to the short term. I believe that the economic data will be bad enough to propel Jnug and gold up. That momentum will carry us through to the upside until at least Wednesday morning for the JOLTS reports. SO I have a target of approximately $21.50ish for a top by mid next week. So for those of us that bought Jnug today or yesterday, you could have a 100% gainer on your hands. Not bad. A gift set up by our big money bank robbers.
When we do break down from that wedge, I cannot begin to predict where it might bottom. I have a hard time believing that we make a new deeper bottom, but then again, if we are left translated as it appears we will be, then that is possible. Too early to tell. However, the blue trading channel appears to be our course for October into November. If anything changes then I will update.
Then if the head and shoulders pattern is in fact going to play out, then it makes sense that we turn sideway for mid November and early December to complete the shoulder. We will see. If we are going to create a H&S pattern then it makes sense that we do not break the neckline which we came very close to hitting today. So late October early November could bounce off that neckline instead of the channel bottom. Just something to think about and be prepared for.
Hope this helps.
jnug to goldI wasn't going to post another chart until Friday but after reading my update, it seems easier to follow along with what I am saying with the updated chart as well. Ignore the Pink arrows and boxes, that's just for me to keep an eye on.
well price dipped below the major trendline today, signaling that sometime in the not too distant future it will drop below it. But in the meantime, I believe that today was the bottom and reversal day. Price is climbing in After Hours especially. So I am looking for $18.30 range for tomorrow and then $20 range for Friday. I am hoping that momentum will continue until next Tuesday to the top of the wedge for that day which should be approximately 22.40ish to $22.52, (where I will sell no later than Tuesday so my funds will be settled for the Friday Oct 7th report) before dropping back down to $20 range. (however, just like on the 12th -13th, it doesnt have to continue, and could drop a little bit). Maybe if I am lucky, price will push just past the upper trendline (maybe 22.60's) to give the same signal that todays brief push below the trendlind did. I am actually crossing my fingers that after Tuesday, Price drops down to the blue trendline again. If price drops to that trendline, I will buy Jnug at that point, and rely on the report to be negative, (good for Gold), and shoot up to the top of the broader wedge before settling for the day (7th) around $22 to $22.50 range. After that, I think the blue arrows tell the tale for Jnug price movement, hoping for price to reach $26+ by the 12th or 13th before dropping to the next price target for that Friday.
Obviously if any of my price targets change I will adjust it ahead of time. The further out we go, the less accurate they are. AS you can see, the price movements are much broader in November through March 2017. As time passes I will update the charts with my belief of price movements for that week.
jnug to goldWell the black trend line did not hold like I thought it would. Price also briefly dipped below the blue trend line. That is usually a signal that it will be broken in the near future. So it appears that jnug will continue down tomorrow.
The two areas that it could bounce off of are $17.50 range and if that is broken then $16.67 range. But that looks to be about it if it gets that far. a little bit bummed. I did buy jnug at $18.41 and I will hold.
SO I shifted my cycle bottom line to the 27th . I truly believe that this will mark the bottom for this cycle. Kind of tough to try to time the market and predict the future. Cant always be totally correct. But if price still makes it to my price target area by Friday, then I will be happy.
Also as you can see there was a change to my arrows and a slight adjustment to the pick boxes for the next two weeks. I try the best I can to guess price path for the week. Tuesday is the cut off for the COT report and Big money knows that. So that's why I think tomorrow, if jnug continues to go down, will by the final day this week before it turns around.
Jnug to goldSO, While researching DUST, I discovered a possible conflict for Jnug price targets.
There is possibly another path, represented with the pick arrows and boxes. So here is my trading plan (subject to change as we proceed).
I currently hold DUST, which I bought this morning (9/22) when I saw JNUG get rejected from the upper wedge. I plan on selling DUST, using my Jnug chart as my guide. So sell DUST when Jnug fills the gap down at $18.35ish and then Immediately buy Jnug.
The possible conflict occurs around Oct 5. The question is will Jnug bounce and go higher or will it continue to drop to the pink box. I'm kind of thinking it will drop, which would be more in line with a cycle end. Since I cant be comfortably sure, here is my plan with Jnug at that point (ist week of October)....
If Jnug is touches the top of the wedge around the 3rd or 4th, then sell Jnug and simply wait and see which way it goes. If it drops to the pick box on 10/7 then I would buy Jnug for the short term left translated pop.
If it goes higher then I would wait a little bit longer to see if it hits the upper blue line and then buy DUST.
By the way, if it does drop to that pink box, then I would be considering that to represent the end of the cycle and beginning of the next left translated move. At that point I would adjust the fuchsia lines.
Jnug to goldSo I was bummed that gold took off after Japans non move. Oh well, Im still buying Jnug for the short ride up.
Just a brief update today. I have slightly moved my arrows (price movement). I also included the Fuschia colored and black vertical lines to mark DCL approx. dates and the Black vertical line are what I believe is ICL bottoms.
My Idea is that jnug is on its own cycle, similar to gold but not following it exactly. Just look at the comparison for price movement in August with Jnug vs spot gold. Interesting at the very least. It appears that Jnug completed its own ICL bottom. The ICL seem to be 4 - 5 1/2 month long. The shorter DCL seem to be 4 - 5 weeks. So I am simply toying with this idea.
I do not believe we will get past $23.40 range in the next couple days. That will be our top and then more chop, just like the chart shows. And even though it is way far out, I still think Jnug bottoms on Feb 1, the day I think the Fed raises rates. Then we take off to incredible and very lofty gains.
Jnug to Gold updatewell, well, well...Jnug closed at $17.35! Right smack dab near my price target area of around ($17.50). And the week before it closed almost perfectly in the price target as well. So just to update, I think that Jnug will bottom around the $16.20 on Moday or Tuesday. Then with no rate hike, we will get a small run for a couple to fours days. I am looking at least to $26.50. Ill be watching closely at that level to see if it breaks through that wedge line to the $29+ range, but I doubt it. Next price target for 9/23 is around $21.50
Note: AS we progress, the other grey box price target areas may adjust like they have in this new chart
Jnug as a guide to Gold price movmentSince my spot gold chart is too cluttered to post, I thought this JNUG chart may be a better guide.
I use mostly Cycle analysis, and to a lesser degree .... Technical Analysis for price guidance, Max Pain Expiration, Cot report Tuesday cutoff, and typical seasonal movements. Oh and lets not forget the dependency on the data on the economic calendar as well. As of right now I am neither bullish nor bearish due to a couple factors. We are in and have been trading in a wedge. One that is starting to look like we wont get out of until the 3rd week of October. Only to trade in a larger wedge. note(I almost hope Gold does drop to a double bottom or close to it so I can trade it all the way down and then all the way up again).
If we don't break higher (Past Approx 1375 -80 range) by the end of September, then this is going down hard.
The shaded square boxes are the Max Pain price targets. Obviously the further out they go, the less reliable they are. They may change week to week. But still fun to note. Trying to keep an open mind.
I am looking for the current cycle to bottom in mid October and to be left translated. The next daily cycle, also left translated , should bottom in late November, and the final daily cycle for the year should peak at 26.48 range before heading down.
Lastly, the fact that, as of right now, the Max Pain price target in January is very, very low, suggests to me that the Fed will not raise rates until the January 31st meeting. After that, then Gold and Jnug should fly.
XAUUSD, JNUG, NUGT, DUST, GOLD, GDX, GDXJ, JDST
Miners Ready to Burst out of WedgeMiners are coiling up ready for a big movement. Coiling into a wedge with high volume. You can see a smaller version of this patter happened at the end of August. It was a bearish pattern then, and I think it is a bearish pattern again. Gold is going down and the Dollar is going up in anticipation of a rate hike. I have no position right now, but I am ready to short if it breaks through the bottom of the wedge
JNUG chart for GoldSince my spot gold chart is too cluttered to post, I thought this JNUG chart may be a better guide.
I use mostly Cycle analysis, and to a lesser degree .... Technical Analysis for price guidance, Max Pain Expiration, Cot report Tuesday cutoff, and typical seasonal movements. Oh and lets not forget the dependency on the data on the economic calendar as well. As of right now I am neither bullish nor bearish due to a couple factors. We are in and have been trading in a wedge. One that is starting to look like we wont get out of until the 3rd week of October. Only to trade in a larger wedge. note(I almost hope Gold does drop to a double bottom or close to it so I can trade it all the way down and then all the way up again).
If we don't break higher (Past Approx 1375 -80 range) by the end of September, then this is going down hard.
The shaded square boxes are the Max Pain price targets. Obviously the further out they go, the less reliable they are. They may change week to week. But still fun to note. Trying to keep an open mind.
I am looking for the current cycle to bottom in mid October and be left translated. The next Cycle, also left translated should bottom in late November. I did not put an arrow for the initial left translated up surge for the beginning of December, but if I had to guess, it looks reasonable for the price to get up to 26.48 range in about one week or so before falling off the cliff.
Lastly, the fact that as of right now, the MAX pain price target in January is soooo low, tells me that the FED will not raise rates until the January 31 meeting. ENJOY!!
